Moving up to #2 = No Playoffs for the next three years

[Pete]

1 minute ago, What a Tuel said:

 

So you are going on record right now and saying the Bills had the playoff drought because they missed on drafting and that was more detrimental than missing on QB? 

I am.  Take the Vikes.  They drafted excellent the past 3 seasons.  Now they have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.  They win no matter who starts at QB.  And now that their roster is set, they went all in on Kirk Cousins.  

[buffalobloodfloridahome]

Who knows what the QB landscape looks like next year or the year after we have a few guys projected to come out. This QB draft class of Darnold and Rosen in particular has been touted for years. Then Allen and Mayfield popped up almost from obscurity and Lamar Jackson, Mason Rudolph, Lauletta, White and so on and so on. They could all be busts for all we know or people could look back and say this is the best QB draft since 1983 and the Bills blew it but be thankful we got such a good safety at 12 he really made a difference for the 5 years he played for us. We have to take a chance and go for who we feel is the best QB in the draft by all means necessary and then we can plug in all the players around him. I say we trade with the Giants and take our man at 2 and then figure everything else out. We have already filled allot of holes with free agency on our Dline and secondary. We need a wr, MLB and another corner really and more Oline depth.

[cudi]

23 hours ago, jr1 said:

people have already written off AJ

You mean AJ "Future Super Bowl MVP" McCarron 

[Batman1876]

When was the last time the Bills had a chance to draft a QB prospect that was considered an Elite prospect going into the draft? 2004? are you really ok with waiting another 14 years to get a good shot at one? 

15 minutes ago, Pete said:

I am.  Take the Vikes.  They drafted excellent the past 3 seasons.  Now they have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.  They win no matter who starts at QB.  And now that their roster is set, they went all in on Kirk Cousins.  

No matter who that QB is as long as they play like a top 5 QB that year. 

[What a Tuel]

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

I am.  Take the Vikes.  They drafted excellent the past 3 seasons.  Now they have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.  They win no matter who starts at QB.  And now that their roster is set, they went all in on Kirk Cousins.  

 

In 2014 the Vikings traded up for Bridgewater in 2014 costing them 2nd and 4th round selections.

In 2016 the Vikings drafted Treadwell with a 1st round pick. Guy has 21 catches 215 yards total.

In 2017 the Vikings traded a 1st round pick and 4th round pick for Bradford.

 

But yeah the Vikings sure didn't invest in QB and would sure miss those picks.

[Tyrod's friend]

17 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

So you are going on record right now and saying the Bills had the playoff drought because they missed on drafting and that was more detrimental than missing on QB? 

Oh, 100%. 

Let's go back in time. If we had simply gotten 2 Time AP Clady, MVP Clay Matthews and PB Haloti Ngata  this team has a different angle throughout the last 15 years. Just those last two names; if Haloti Ngata had clogged the middle and let Clay run rampant you have a top 5 defense nearly every year. Those weren't hard picks to make. 

These aren't random names here. Most everyone on a Message Board was clamoring for anything other than McKelvin, Whitner and Maybin.

And that's not unusual - we wound up having to take Marshawn Lynch and passing on the best CB in the NFL for the last 25 years because we were busy playing musical chairs with Willis McGahee. It's not that Lynch wasn't a good pick, although we let him leave too soon. We jerked our chain at RB since Travis Henry was here because the FO always was the smartest guys in the room.

If you fail at talent assessment generally, then it just doesn't matter if we had picked 17 QBs in 17 years. This has been an inept organization at assessing talent for a generation.

Cheers,
Alex.

[Batman1876]

19 minutes ago, Tyrod's friend said:

Oh, 100%. 

Let's go back in time. If we had simply gotten 2 Time AP Clady, MVP Clay Matthews and PB Haloti Ngata  this team has a different angle throughout the last 15 years. Just those last two names; if Haloti Ngata had clogged the middle and let Clay run rampant you have a top 5 defense nearly every year. Those weren't hard picks to make. 

These aren't random names here. Most everyone on a Message Board was clamoring for anything other than McKelvin, Whitner and Maybin.

And that's not unusual - we wound up having to take Marshawn Lynch and passing on the best CB in the NFL for the last 25 years because we were busy playing musical chairs with Willis McGahee. It's not that Lynch wasn't a good pick, although we let him leave too soon. We jerked our chain at RB since Travis Henry was here because the FO always was the smartest guys in the room.

If you fail at talent assessment generally, then it just doesn't matter if we had picked 17 QBs in 17 years. This has been an inept organization at assessing talent for a generation.

Cheers,
Alex.

For the past 5 years we would have needed the '85 Bears to have had a real shot at a deep playoff run because we would have needed a D that could hold playoff teams to 3-7 points. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

2 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

For the past 5 years we would have needed the '85 Bears to have had a real shot at a deep playoff run because we would have needed a D that could hold playoff teams to 3-7 points. 

24 points is what you meant to say.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

32 minutes ago, cudi said:

You mean AJ "Future Super Bowl MVP" McCarron 

If Foles can win a Super Bowl with that Eagles roster then AJM should be able to do the same. AJM was going to be traded for a 2nd and a 5th rd pick before the Browns messed it up. Foles was signed to a low contract to be a backup QB. The point is if you have a talented roster you can win a Super Bowl with a average starter which I think Foles is.

 

Im not taking anything away from Foles, he played a great game and deserves a shot as a starter. The Eagles have 2 good big WR's and a top 3 TE,  if Foles is traded he will be lucky to have anything close to that. 

 

 

[reddogblitz]

4 hours ago, Batman1876 said:

So he’s s mystery who had a lot to prove. How often do guys like that turn into franchise QBs? And he signed after Bradford. 

 

Kurt Warner

Brett Favre

Matt Hasselbeck

Doug Flutie

Warren Moon

Drew Brees

[Batman1876]

18 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

24 points is what you meant to say.

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

18 minutes ago, reddogblitz said:

 

Kurt Warner-Good example 

Brett Favre-Was Acquired for a 1st round pick, not as a street free agent

Matt Hasselbeck-Not a bad example but he was brought over by a head coach who had been his coach

Doug Flutie- Not a franchise QB

Warren Moon-Signed after a bidding war for his services, 

Drew Brees-Had already started 60 games not 3 and had played well

So 2 20 year old examples. Not great odds.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

Over the past 3 years we are 23-7 when the opponent is held to less than 24 points. That's over 75% win rate.

 

Then again, I'm not sure what I expected from someone who touts demonstrably false statements as 'facts'.

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Over the past 3 years we are 23-7 when the opponent is held to less than 24 points. That's over 75% win rate.

 

Then again, I'm not sure what I expected from someone who touts demonstrably false statements as 'facts'.

What demonstrably false things have I presented as facts? I'll also point out that one of those losses was this year in the first round of the playoffs where we put up three points, our D would have needed to pitch a shutout to make up for our lack of passing game. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

In 22 years, since Jim Kelly retired, a QB hasn't fallen into the Bills lap. It led to a 17 year playoff drought. That's really your plan?

 

Well some have actually.... but we were busy building around our placeholders trying to end the drought instead.  Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr..... they were all in our lap.  

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, Batman1876 said:

What demonstrably false things have I presented as facts? I'll also point out that one of those losses was this year in the first round of the playoffs where we put up three points, our D would have needed to pitch a shutout to make up for our lack of passing game. 

really?

14 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Our Offense was anemic against playoff teams mostly due to the fact that we had 1 passing TD every 4 games. 

...

As for the rest of your post, your current sample size is 1 game, and has a maximum of 4 over the past 3 years (that's the total number of times we scored 7 or fewer points in the past 49 games...). My sample size is 30 games.

[Batman1876]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Well some have actually.... but we were busy building around our placeholders trying to end the drought instead.  Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr..... they were all in our lap.  

Drafting QBs outside of the first round is so much of a crapshoot that its hard to hold it against a team for not picking the 1 in 30 who ends up being good. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Batman1876 said:

Drafting QBs outside of the first round is so much of a crapshoot that its hard to hold it against a team for not picking the 1 in 30 who ends up being good. 

 

Maybe so, but that Wilson and Cousins year for example it was common sense that we needed one.  Fitz had shown enough by that point to know he wasn't a long term answer and we had a need even if it was a developmental guy to sit.  If they had taken one and taken the wrong one then maybe I'd give them a pass.  They were pathologically refusing to pick quarterbacks. The last 2 years we have taken guys I didn't much like in the middle rounds and surprise, surprise, neither was good.  But at least they took them.  To not take a QB in 2012 was frankly indefensible.  

[Where’sLloyd]

With a franchise QB we beat JAX and then who knows. I’m new here and in the camp that they have to get a franchise QB. You’re more in favor of blue chip talents like Marcel  Dareus  and CJ Spiller....than a QB who can lead this team?? That to me is what spells the same failure we have seen time and again.

 

The only thing that really matters is if our front office is right about the QB(s) they like. If he busts then it’s business as usual around here, but if they’re right then we are competitive for the next 10-12 years if not longer. This is the best look we have had a guy who can be a future star at this position since we took the last guy wearing number 12.

 

if you love Jackson or think Mayfield might be available at 12,or at least lower than 5 then I don’t disagree with your line of thought. But if they are sure Darnold is a 10year starter then you have to do what it takes to get him and find ways to fill holes along the way for a couple years. Just my $.02.  For what it’s worth Allen is the guy that scares me off.

[Batman1876]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

really?

...

As for the rest of your post, your current sample size is 1 game, and has a maximum of 4 over the past 3 years (that's the total number of times we scored 7 or fewer points in the past 49 games...). My sample size is 30 games.

My sample size is 7 games  played against playoff opponents last year.  5 of the 7 games we failed to throw a passing TD. We were 2 and 5 in those 7 games. How many deep playoff runs are you making with that kind of passing game? How good would the D have to be to cover that shortcoming? And yeah really if you want to claim it as a fact that I present false statements as fact then support your claim or be a hypocrite. 

Edited April 4, 2018 by Batman1876

[BillsForLyfe]

On 4/3/2018 at 8:57 AM, Domdab99 said:

Moving up is sexy, it's fun, it's what's for dinner these days. But moving up will set the team's growth back three, maybe five years. Possibly longer. This team has so many holes, that to throw away all these picks on a QB who might be good is insanity. 

 

If we can somehow move up and still have 1 2nd and 1 3rd...I'd be willing to listen. But only for Rosen or Mayfield. Trading up for any of the other QBs is insanity. Especially since Jackson has a very good chance of being there at 12. Hell, he has a good chance of being there at 22.

 

I'd rather pick an elite player at 12 - Roquan Smith, Derwin James, Vita Vea....etc. Use the rest of the picks on holes like WR, OL, DL, LB....

 

Throwing away this draft along with a first next next year? No thanks. 

 

From what I am reading we wouldn't have to give up anything next year (Maybe a 4th -6th but IDC on that), So I disagree with this outlook especially now since we finally have the ammo to get a "Top Prospect" at QB. Which Has been our biggest problem. (Couldn't find a QB) I feel we have waited/reached on to many QBs for us not to finally take a chance on a "Top Prospect"  We will still be able to keep our first round next year   and like you say above we will have a whole lot of cap space to spend next year as well.