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Mel Kiper's Nightmare Mock 3.0


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1 minute ago, CDogg20 said:

Kiper is awful. His mocks are usually not even close. 

This. So take solace in the fact that he is usually pretty off guys.

 

The one thing, we are likely not getting a quarterback without a trade up, and I don't think he usually projects trades. So linebacker, corner seems likely.  

 

The true question is...did he have Mason Rudolph in first? ;)

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15 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

If they trade OBJ, we have to assume itll be for a 1st. If that's the case, they don't need to trade out of #2, and we're screwed.

 

They get their 2 early picks and can afford to stock up at QB.

Unless the do something like, trade out of 2 with us. Take 12, 22 plus extras and look  for Jackson/Rudolph. 

 

They could use 12 on Jackson and still end up with 2 first rounders for solid players.

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26 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

I agree, it's a terrifying and likely scenario. Ugh. 

But it hasn't happened yet, and is also likely to NOT happen.

18 minutes ago, Augie said:

Yeah, if that is what Kiper is predicting I feel a lot better because that means it’s the least likely outcome. 

This is true!

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1 minute ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Unless the do something like, trade out of 2 with us. Take 12, 22 plus extras and look  for Jackson/Rudolph. 

 

They could use 12 on Jackson and still end up with 2 first rounders for solid players.

 

Following up Eli with Jackson is almost a fireable offense itself.

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Honestly, if the top 4 QBs all go in the top 5 like that (which certainly is a possibility), then the good news is that the Bills will be taking a top 8 overall pick at a non-QB position at 12 (depending on what they think of Jackson and Rudolph). They could even potentially trade up a couple of spots if they need to get a top 5 guy (Chubb, Nelson, Smith, for example), at one of those spots without giving up more than a 2nd or 3rd rounder.

 

I laugh at all of the fans that are DEMANDING that the Bills trade up for one of those top 4 QBs. There are multiple factors in the equation. Can the Bills find a team willing to trade down? And if so, what will it cost? Let's remember that the team has a number of other big needs right now. MLB, WR, OL (both interior and exterior), DL (both interior and exterior) besides depth elsewhere. If there is a trade to be made for one of these top 4 QBs (or, better yet, should one of them fall) then that is great. However, if the draft goes as Kiper has it going, it is hard to complain about using the picks we have to address other areas.

 

I don't doubt that, say, Rosen/Mayfield > McCarron. However, I do not think that the team as a whole will look better with Rosen/McCarron vs McCarron + improvements at WR, MLB and OL/DL. Or, for that matter, Rosen/McCarron vs Jackson/Rudolph + improvements at WR, MLB and OL/DL.

 

And if they do give up multiple high picks to trade up they had BETTER be right or lucky (from a health perspective).

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11 minutes ago, Bobby Hooks said:

It is a nightmare. Unfortunately when the Jets traded up to 3 the writing was on the wall. 

 

I think there’s still a chance we could get up there and get Mayfield but the Jets trade hurt very badly. Moreso than many want to admit, especially at obd. 

I know I'll catch fire for this, but having lived in NYC most of my life (family from Buffalo, went to college in Buffalo during SB years), can't help but feel the Jets might be eyeing Barkley. Probably not, but the Jets have a history of surprising picks; it's almost as if they live to hear their fans' groans on Draft Day. My logic is they know everyone will be expecting them to want a QB, so the move forces the Browns to use first pick on QB instead of Barkley, while enticing a team like the Bills, Broncos, or Cardinals to make a huge offer to the Giants, drawing them away from Barkley. Again, not saying it's likely, just that we don't truly know...especially when the Jets are involved.

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37 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22917443/nfl-mock-draft-2018-30-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks (You need Insider to read it)

 

1.) Cleveland Browns - QB Josh Allen

2.) New York Giants -  QB Sam Darnold

3.) New York Jets - QB Josh Rosen

4.) Cleveland Browns - RB Saquon Barkley

5.) Denver Broncos - QB Baker Mayfield

 

This is a likely scenario that terrifies me. I don't want to know what this board's going to look like if it goes down this way. 

 

I'm thankful Kiper put it out there, though. Pretty much guarantees it'll go differently. 

 

Well considering his mocks are GROSSLY wrong every single year (still dont know why he is an "expert") just like his player evaluations are grossly wrong every year.  His commentary is about as valuable as the bags of dog crap I pickup every morning from my 3 dogs.  

 

That being said, its entirely possible that this draft goes exactly as he listed.  But its also entirely possible it goes like this:

 

1 Cle - Allen

2 NYG - Chubb

3 Jets - Darnold

4 Cle - Barkley

5 Den - Fitzpatrick

 

Or 

Darnold, Chubb, Rosen, Barkley, Allen

 

Or

Darnold, Barkley, Rosen, Chubb, Fitzpatrick

 

Or 

Allen, Darnold, Rosent, Barkely, Fitzpatrick

 

I mean I can keep going on and on...this draft is almost impossible to predict right now as there are so many ways it can go.  Personally, I think Giants and Broncos can easily go a different direction than QB.  Yes, totally possible they BOTH go QB, or one or the other does.  But I think Giants might be interested in retooling around Eli first.  And some people act like this will be the only draft ever they can find an heir apparent to Eli.  If they are going to stick to Eli, I expect them to draft help before a replacement personally.  

 

And Broncos could have stuck with any of the QB's on their roster as a "bridge" for cheaper than they signed Keenum.  They dont have a ton of cap space to waste either, yet they signed him to a more expensive contract.  I think Elway could see Keenum as a guy they can may make another postseason run with (I mean they won the SB recently with the worst QB tandem in the NFL that year) and look to add much needed help to the D in Minkah just as easily as grabbing a QB.  Now, dont get me wrong, I am not a guy who thinks Keenum is a sure bet by any means, and if I was the Broncos I would take a QB at 5.  But I also would NOT have signed Keenum if I was definitely taking a QB at 5.  

 

So its possible 4 guys go top 5 and its just as possible only 2 QBs go top 5.  Thats what makes this draft so exciting as normally its a lot easier to figure out the first 3 to 5 picks.  

Edited by Alphadawg7
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32 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I don't buy that Giants want a QB that badly. I think if that happened we make them an offer they can't refuse for Darnold

 

If I was the Giants with a 37-year old QB, drafting 2nd in this draft, I would draft the best QB on the board at number two and not trade down.  It's the perfect setting for a young QB to hold the clipboard for a year or two to develop properly.  I hope they trade back with us, but I wouldn't make that trade, if I was Gettleman.

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Just now, Forward Progress said:

 

If I was the Giants with a 37-year old QB, drafting 2nd in this draft, I would draft the best QB on the board at number two and not trade down.  It's the perfect setting for a young QB to hold the clipboard for a year or two to develop properly.  I hope they trade back with us, but I wouldn't make that trade, if I was Gettleman.

 

The question is how high are the NYG on Davis Webb.

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41 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/22917443/nfl-mock-draft-2018-30-mel-kiper-first-round-pick-rankings-draft-order-32-picks (You need Insider to read it)

 

1.) Cleveland Browns - QB Josh Allen

2.) New York Giants -  QB Sam Darnold

3.) New York Jets - QB Josh Rosen

4.) Cleveland Browns - RB Saquon Barkley

5.) Denver Broncos - QB Baker Mayfield

 

This is a likely scenario that terrifies me. I don't want to know what this board's going to look like if it goes down this way. 

 

I'm thankful Kiper put it out there, though. Pretty much guarantees it'll go differently. 

 

 

This is Roger Goodell's dream scneario

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8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Following up Eli with Jackson is almost a fireable offense itself.

Says you. 

 

Unless your crystal ball is on point you have no way of knowing how anyone will develop. Getting a top QB prospect this year and a host of other picks to help rebuild what's in place would be the best move he can make imo. Trading Beckham leaves a huge hole. With FA all but done they have to try and draft a replacement. Shepherd isn't really a huge threat at this point and Marshall is 79 years old. 

 

Jackson can sit and learn from Eli for 1-3 years.Would be a good spot for his development imo.

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