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Is there even consensus on the rookie QB rankings? Trade Up Strategy


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If the Browns dont want Darnold, and prefer Allen , I could see them getting their RB first, knowing Allen is there at 4, Making sure the giants don’t get their RB. 

 

Giants either trade back or pick BPA.

 

Darnold does seem to be the most frequently rated top guy. But it’s not unanimous.

 

 

 

 

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I don’t see the Browns trading out of #1 or #4.  They will get the top QB in the draft AND Saquon Barkley... great time to be a Browns fan. 

 

I also would be shocked to see the Giants trade out of #2... and if they do, it will cost more than I’d be comfortable giving up (as we have so many holes to fill).

 

The Jets won’t trade out of #3. Even if ‘their QB’ is selected by Cleveland or NYG. Whoever they pick at #3, they will say was ‘their guy’ all along. 

 

Now, whether we can get into the 5-10 position.... we’ll see!

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2 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

I don’t see the Browns trading out of #1 or #4.  They will get the top QB in the draft AND Saquon Barkley... great time to be a Browns fan. 

 

I also would be shocked to see the Giants trade out of #2... and if they do, it will cost more than I’d be comfortable giving up (as we have so many holes to fill).

 

The Jets won’t trade out of #3. Even if ‘their QB’ is selected by Cleveland or NYG. Whoever they pick at #3, they will say was ‘their guy’ all along. 

 

Now, whether we can get into the 5-10 position.... we’ll see!

Actually, this is not guaranteed. If, as many think, the Browns take Darnold, the Giants may take Barkley. Most of the "experts" make him the hands down

best player in the draft. I chose not to make this next comment/discussion item its own thread but I have now seen two reports that the Jets did not

offer the trade up deal to the Giants - only to the Browns and to the Colts (who sprinted no doubt to sign that trade agreement!). Why, I ask, did the Jets not

offer the deal to the Giants? Some say that the jets did not want to trade with their home town rivals. I reject this suggestion since it would be bad trade value (pick 2 is better than pick 3) and the Giants are in another conference (a team they only play once every four years). So, why no offer? I think the Jets are convinced the Giants are no

threat to pick the QB they want ahead of them. That could be Chubb but I now think the Giants are going Barkley IF he's there. If he is not, I suppose they may go Darnold (whom the Giants are rumored to be the ONE QB worth the 2nd pick....take that for FWIW). A great outcome for the Bills would be that the Giants then select Chubb. This would mean

Darnold goes to the Jets but WTF, they are going QB anyway. Do any of know - for sure - which of the four QBs will eventually become a star?

 

In any event, a very exciting 2-3 hours for Bills fans is upcoming on April 26th. 

 

Go Bills!

 

-RichNJoisy

Central NJ Bills Backers

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If we want one of these top 4 guys, we need to go get them asap.  It's pretty foolish to think teams like Miami and Arizona aren't also working hard to get into position to grab one.  Just because we have the most picks to offer doesn't mean teams are simply going to sit on their hands and say "well, we'd like to see what the Bills will give us".

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9 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

We are all salivating over a trade-up to get our franchise QB. The question is do we trade up to, say, 2 or 4/5?

 

It all depends on how strongly we want one QB over the others. 

 

I have read reams of stuff on each QB, watched NFL Network's Mariucci analysis. watched highlights and a few complete games of 7 QBs - Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson, Rudolph & Tanner Lee. Bottomline - there appears to be consensus on the top 4. And among them, Darnold appears to be the front-runner (notwithstanding a few rumblings regarding Allen). Behind him, the next three, however appear wide open.

 

I dont know how much conviction the Bills brass have in one of these three. A cursory reading of McD's breakfast comments appear to indicate (unless it is a smokescreen) that the Bills will probably go for Rosen, who is the most polished drop-back passer. But how strong is their conviction it is one over the other 2. If you are not convinced about the relative superiority of one over the others - why give up a bunch of assets and trade up to 2? Why not do a more modest trade and choose 4th? 

 

In summary, if the OBD brass feels there are two or three thoroughbreds, trade with the   Giants. If you think there are 4, trade with the Browns / Broncos. I canot imagine they will take Lamar Jackson - not after trading Tyrod. So if they think Rudolph belongs in the group with Rosen etc., wait till draft day and trade up to 6 or after depending upon how the draft plays out.

 

 

There seems to be a pretty strong consensus that Sam Darnold is the #1 quarterback this year.

There also seems to be a consensus that Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson are #4 and #5, and that Mason Rudolph is a distant #6.

 

The guys in the middle are more of a mystery, and may be dependent on specific teams and what they feel comfortable with.

Josh Rosen probably would be #2 in most circumstances.  But I think the concerns about his injuries and leadership are legit. 

I'm starting to believe the chatter around Josh Allen's potential is real, and he may be the #2 on most boards.

 

 

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I see it as...

 

Tier 1a: Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen

Tier 1b: Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield

Tier 2: Lamar Jackson

Tier 3: Mason Rudolph, Mike White, Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk

 

Darnold and Rosen have been top players since high school and have the ideal QB body and the numbers to back it up.  There's very little risk involved there.  A team might like someone at tier 1b but they are taking on additional risk knowing that those guys were not highly recruited players and seem to have come out of nowhere over the past few seasons, but I still think they are very good players.  Personally, if I'm picking at the top of the draft I'm not going to take on more risk than necessary.  Don't overthink it, just take the player that has done it well at every level throughout their career.  I think those top tiers are all top 10 prospects so I have them as 1a and 1b and then at tier 2 Lamar Jackson is the only other player worth a 1st round pick.  After that there is a clear drop off where the other players could go anywhere from rounds 2-5.

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From all I've read, including in this thread so far, there is NO consensus for the top QBs! LIke none. Sure the same 4 names come up all the time, but in what order, and if they really are worth a Top 5 pick to begin with, no consensus. Which is crazy. Usually the top picks are almost a given in the drafts. And all of us are so QB focused I don't even know who are the star players at the other positions! And well, I'll trust Beane and the "process".

 

 

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The important question is: Is there a consensus among the QB needy teams.  It doesn't matter much what the media, fans, or rest of the NFL thinks.


Let's hope there is NOT a consensus and the Bills have got the QBs ranked right while every other team that needs a QB has them ranked wrong.  

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2 hours ago, kdiggz said:

I see it as...

 

Tier 1a: Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen

Tier 1b: Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield

Tier 2: Lamar Jackson

Tier 3: Mason Rudolph, Mike White, Kyle Lauletta, Luke Falk

 

Darnold and Rosen have been top players since high school and have the ideal QB body and the numbers to back it up.  There's very little risk involved there.  A team might like someone at tier 1b but they are taking on additional risk knowing that those guys were not highly recruited players and seem to have come out of nowhere over the past few seasons, but I still think they are very good players.  Personally, if I'm picking at the top of the draft I'm not going to take on more risk than necessary.  Don't overthink it, just take the player that has done it well at every level throughout their career.  I think those top tiers are all top 10 prospects so I have them as 1a and 1b and then at tier 2 Lamar Jackson is the only other player worth a 1st round pick.  After that there is a clear drop off where the other players could go anywhere from rounds 2-5.

 

If the Jets get Allen and the Bills get Rosen I will be happy on draft day. We should be the best team in the AFCE when Brady starts to decline in that scenario. 

4 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

The important question is: Is there a consensus among the QB needy teams.  It doesn't matter much what the media, fans, or rest of the NFL thinks.


Let's hope there is NOT a consensus and the Bills have got the QBs ranked right while every other team that needs a QB has them ranked wrong.  

 

Very true, it is almost guaranteed  that the order the QBs are drafted will not be the order of the best to worst QBs in the NFL. 

 

I know that our staff is a lot smarter than the Jets staff, hopefully that plays out right and the Jets don't get lucky.

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5 hours ago, ganesh said:

Browns have 1 and 4 and have a need for a Franchise QB and at the same time pick a once-in-a-generation RB...So it would be stupid of them to not pick one

Giants are in an unusual spot of holding #2 pick in  a year of QB Bounty in the draft. It would be stupid of them to not pick one

Jets have a need for a franchise QB ever since they traded for Sanchez. AT #3 it would be stupid of them to not pick one.

Denver have heavily invested in the QB carousel for the past five years and have no answers.  At #5 they would be stupid not to pick one.

 

That is four teams that will be desperate to pick QBs in the top 5 because they have a need and there are NFL ready QBs available in this years draft.   Our luck continues to hit us bad and we just don't seem to catch a break.  But the Bills have the capital to move....But will any of these four teams be willing to be a trade partner...Considering what they need is the same as us, they are unlikely to miss out on the next Carson Wentz!

Correct.  If we like the 5th available QB, which we may, it is realistic to jump the fish and get pick 7,8,9,10.  4 of the first 5 picks will be QB so unless the Browns want to pass on Barkley at 4, there really are not options if you live in reality.  But if you live in fantasyland........

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9 hours ago, Cripple Creek said:

What is this consensus you are talking about? You won't find consensus among the experts and you damn sure aren't finding it here among the masses.

actually that was my point. The lack of consensus (unlike the Mariota / Winston, or Wentz / Goff years) means we may not need to go to #2 to get our QB.

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