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Why I think the Bills Will Take Rosen at #2 Overall April 26


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Hello everyone,

 

In the moment no one is waiting for, here comes my daring draft prediction!

 

The draft will start off with a bang when the Buffalo Bills will trade up to pick 2nd overall. They will take a quarterback.

 

Part B of my prediction is that it will be Josh Rosen. I am not as sure of this though.

 

Of course nobody can be sure of anything at this time of year, least of all me. But here is my reasoning.

First, I wanted to get settled on what I think so I can stop reading all the stories that are all just as much BS as mine here is. I can’t stop reading them but all they do is make me tense because we have so much riding on this draft. So now I hope to stop and not read them all for the next 7 weeks!

 

So I figured out what I think and now I’m done.

 

I started to think about the people involved and not the teams. I wondered who would (Mc)Beane trade with? You don’t want somebody to lie to you and double cross you for a trade like this in the first round because of how important it is and because you don’t have any time to fix it if someone sticks it to you.

So I figured he would be looking for Christians like he and McD are because of course they can lie, but then they lose Church cred if they do. So they are a lot less likely to outright lie to other Christians I think.

 

As far as I know I don’t see any Christian GMs in the top ten teams picking.

But I do see Gettleman with the Giants pick at #2.

Beane knows him and (Mc)Beane has shown a pronounced tendency to deal with people he knows.

Some mocks have Gettleman taking Saquon Barkley at #2 which I think would be insane. That slot is worth about 3 first round picks and the most recent running back I can think of who would be worth that is Walter Peyton.

 

Some have Gettleman taking a QB. I think he isn’t desperate for a league ready QB because he has Manning still. So if you are going to take a developmental guy who needs a couple years, why spend the #2 overall on him?

 

I took a look at this handy chart here which is really cool because you can plug in each team and see what they have.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf

Of course charts are only approximate. But from this it shows if the Bills trade this year’s 2 firsts and next year’s, that is fair pricing for the #2 overall pick.

The Bills would wind up with a premiere QB prospect for the first time in 35 years (drafted Kelly in 1983 and yes I know Jimbo didn’t show up til later)

They would have a developmental prospect in Peterman and they could do whatever they will do about a veteran QB. And they would still have two second rounders to begin to address other needs.

 

The Giants would come out with more high picks to rebuild their roster which they need very badly. They might get one last Hurrah for Eli. And they could pick a developmental high ceiling guy for a QB.

That’s why I think the Bills will deal with Gettleman and why I think Gettleman will take the deal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

I'd be on board. 

 

One possibly missing piece to that trade: Cordy Glenn. If healthy, the NYG need a LT, and it would just make sense after Dawkins' play. 

I say keep Cordy and have good bookend tackles to block for your new shiny qb. DO you really want Jordan Mills blocking for anyone ever again

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15 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hello everyone,

In the moment no one is waiting for, here comes my daring draft prediction!

The draft will start off with a bang when the Buffalo Bills will trade up to pick 2nd overall. They will take a quarterback.

Part B of my prediction is that it will be Josh Rosen. I am not as sure of this though.

 

I would be fine with this choice.  The Bills need to take a shot. 

 

I think the problem with this scenario is that I believe Gettleman has signalled he does not want to trade back too far.  If the Bills can wrangle an intermediate trade into the top 10 or high teens, I think there's a chance.  I think for some of the players who have been proposed as trade bait, teams would not trade on draft day so the Bills will have to show part of their hand and do a pick swap including a player before the draft so that the trade partner can have their medical staff check on him.

Edited by Hapless Bills Fan
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I'm hoping bigtime for something like this.  Get Rosen, keep Taylor to start the season, and throw every other resource we have at builting a monstrous, deep offensive line.

 

Let the coaches do what they can with the defense for now and start overhauling that side next year.

 

If I were the Giants, I'd want something more like 8-9 & 22 plus a 1st next year, so I could see us first trading up to the top 10(losing more capital) to make it happen.  I'd still be Thrilled with Rosen, a second/third this year an a second or a couple seconds next year.   THRILLED!

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Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

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4 minutes ago, Direhard Fan said:

Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

Agreed. But, if I was to move up. it would be for Vita Vea over any of the QBs. Build the lines....

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6 minutes ago, Direhard Fan said:

Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

Yep.  Keep doing what hasn't worked for the last 17 years.  What happens if, say, they want either Jackson or Rudolph in the 2nd, but both are gone by then?  What do you propose they do, take some scrub like Mike White, Kyle Lauletta or Luke "Another Mike Leach System QB" Falk?

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23 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I would be fine with this choice.  The Bills need to take a shot. 

 

I think the problem with this scenario is that I believe Gettleman has signalled he does not want to trade back too far.  If the Bills can wrangle an intermediate trade into the top 10 or high teens, I think there's a chance.  I think for some of the players who have been proposed as trade bait, teams would not trade on draft day so the Bills will have to show part of their hand and do a pick swap including a player before the draft so that the trade partner can have their medical staff check on him.

I thought about that a little. I don't know what Gettleman said beyond that he is open to offers and that he won't spend a #2 on anybody he doesn't think of as a future hall of famer.

 

And I was thinking that as a new GM he will want some kind of high pick to appease the New York crowds.

 

But how would you make that happen? The Bills would have to trade up to a spot that they do not want. So say they trade up to #11.

Then they would have to trust that Gettleman would take their #11 plus whatever else they had to throw in, like he said he would do,  and that he would not go back on it no matter what. Otherwise the Bills are sitting there at #11 with no QB they want and they have to pretend they did it for somebody else.

 

It is very risky and I can count on one hand the number of living people I know who I would trust in a deal like that. And all of them are either family or they love me or both. Is McBeane that close to Gettleman?

 

Otherwise how would you swing it without risking a disaster?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

Yep.  Keep doing what hasn't worked for the last 17 years.  What happens if, say, they want either Jackson or Rudolph in the 2nd, but both are gone by then?  What do you propose they do, take some scrub like Mike White, Kyle Lauletta or Luke "Another Mike Leach System QB" Falk?

 

Aren't you the one shooting down trading up high?!

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11 minutes ago, Direhard Fan said:

Keep 21 and 22.  Build the lines now and all the other needs.  Take a shot at a QB in the second round.   We will never have two firsts and  two seconds again.  Don't put all your eggs in one basket or one easter please.

There will be other Easters and other eggs.

 

I think if these guys traded down last year for any other reason besides accumulating picks to get a QB, then they did a very foolish thing.

 

Come to think of it Tyrod Taylor is the Perfect Personification of who the Buffalo Bills have been. He is careful, he doesn't take chances, and he will never be a champion.

3 minutes ago, wppete said:

I like it but instead of next years First Round Pick give this years Second round Pick and next years Second round pick. 

I like yours better too but I don't think the value is there for Gettleman. But if it is I would do this for sure.

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Just now, aristocrat said:

I think to do it we’d have to trade this entire draft. I wouldn’t even be that against that either. Keep all our picks next year even if we’re bad.  We’d have to sign a lot of guys in free agency.  

Well, according to the table-pounding trade up advocates (e.g. MAJBobby) the Bills will have $90 million in cap space after this season.  So, they would be able to go nuts in free agency in 2019.

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39 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

I say keep Cordy and have good bookend tackles to block for your new shiny qb. DO you really want Jordan Mills blocking for anyone ever again

Right on sir..Glenn stays and we move Dawkins to RT.No need to complicate things..we just need a RG.

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53 minutes ago, Wsam4031 said:

I say keep Cordy and have good bookend tackles to block for your new shiny qb. DO you really want Jordan Mills blocking for anyone ever again

 

I'd rather use Glenn as a piece in a trade, and grab someone like Hubbard from PIT in FA to man the RT position for what would probably be about half of Glenn's salary, if that. 

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14 minutes ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Come to think of it Tyrod Taylor is the Perfect Personification of who the Buffalo Bills have been. He is careful, he doesn't take chances, and he will never be a champion.

Hold on a minute.  Sammy Watkins was a chance and it failed.   I say nevermind on gambling for a magic bullet one shot or bust pick and spread it out.  Buffalo (us) loves the idea of a magic bullet saving the day but it's not our luck.  Think bass pro moving into downtown and saving the city!  Wth was that thinking??  Now we are spreading out and developing here and there and doing much better for it.  Let the team learn from it's city.  Wake up bflo!  Ha

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1 hour ago, BadLandsMeanie said:

Hello everyone,

 

In the moment no one is waiting for, here comes my daring draft prediction!

 

The draft will start off with a bang when the Buffalo Bills will trade up to pick 2nd overall. They will take a quarterback.

 

Part B of my prediction is that it will be Josh Rosen. I am not as sure of this though.

 

Of course nobody can be sure of anything at this time of year, least of all me. But here is my reasoning.

First, I wanted to get settled on what I think so I can stop reading all the stories that are all just as much BS as mine here is. I can’t stop reading them but all they do is make me tense because we have so much riding on this draft. So now I hope to stop and not read them all for the next 7 weeks!

 

So I figured out what I think and now I’m done.

 

I started to think about the people involved and not the teams. I wondered who would (Mc)Beane trade with? You don’t want somebody to lie to you and double cross you for a trade like this in the first round because of how important it is and because you don’t have any time to fix it if someone sticks it to you.

So I figured he would be looking for Christians like he and McD are because of course they can lie, but then they lose Church cred if they do. So they are a lot less likely to outright lie to other Christians I think.

 

As far as I know I don’t see any Christian GMs in the top ten teams picking.

But I do see Gettleman with the Giants pick at #2.

Beane knows him and (Mc)Beane has shown a pronounced tendency to deal with people he knows.

Some mocks have Gettleman taking Saquon Barkley at #2 which I think would be insane. That slot is worth about 3 first round picks and the most recent running back I can think of who would be worth that is Walter Peyton.

 

Some have Gettleman taking a QB. I think he isn’t desperate for a league ready QB because he has Manning still. So if you are going to take a developmental guy who needs a couple years, why spend the #2 overall on him?

 

I took a look at this handy chart here which is really cool because you can plug in each team and see what they have.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf

Of course charts are only approximate. But from this it shows if the Bills trade this year’s 2 firsts and next year’s, that is fair pricing for the #2 overall pick.

The Bills would wind up with a premiere QB prospect for the first time in 35 years (drafted Kelly in 1983 and yes I know Jimbo didn’t show up til later)

They would have a developmental prospect in Peterman and they could do whatever they will do about a veteran QB. And they would still have two second rounders to begin to address other needs.

 

The Giants would come out with more high picks to rebuild their roster which they need very badly. They might get one last Hurrah for Eli. And they could pick a developmental high ceiling guy for a QB.

That’s why I think the Bills will deal with Gettleman and why I think Gettleman will take the deal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What are we giving up in compensation?

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