John from Riverside Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I like him.....but unlike some here I dont downgrade a qb because he can make plays with his athletism and not just him arm talent like some due here Get away from hating on our departing starter.....and think more Mike Vick (young mike vick) you know the guy that went 1st overall in the draft, made tons of plays, had rocket launcher attached to his arm, and actually did put his team on his back at times? Try not to stereo type to much....Lamar Jackson throws the football 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatonka68 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Good WR, bad QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bookie Man Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I don't really see him anything like Watson. DW is great throwing with anticipation, kind of reminds me of Brees. Lamar Jackson's game is a lot like early Mike Vick. I don't think he can lead a dynamic passing attack, but you'll get a lot of explosive plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billieve420 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I wouldn't touch him before the 2nd if we miss out on our Targets. You might as well keep Tyrod at that point since they are similar players on the condition Daboll is planning to incorporate a college spread type offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, DCOrange said: And this seems like a good place to post a link to this thread from earlier in the week. I believe this stat is skewed and is not a good indicator for how well some of these players perform against top defenses. For example Louisvlle got blown out by Clemson this year. If you just look at the stats, you would think Jackson had a pretty good game. When you dig a little deeper, Jackson was 12-25 for 115 yards 1 TD and 1 pick 6 @ 2:16 left in the 3rd quarter. If you watch the highlight of the pick 6, it was just a terrible throw. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPO6frJzkog Louisville was down 33-7 late in the third and from there Jackson went, 9-17 for 202 yards, 2 TD's and 0 INT's in garbage time. Louisville wasn't a great team this year and I imagine it is not uncommon for top collge QB's to pad there stats against top defenses when the backups are in during garbage time. People are just way too accepting to believe every advanced stat they see has a direct correlation to what is happening on the field. Yes a lot of this stuff is good, but how many of these algorithms are giving people a skewed view of exactly how good a player really is? I think a lot of these stats look nice, but don't apply to what is really happening on the field. Edited February 15, 2018 by K-GunJimKelly12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 (edited) 38 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/mattryan/310/careerstats https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/2504775/careerstats https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson/2532975/careerstats https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-palmer-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/carsonpalmer/2505245/careerstats There's more, but here are just a few examples using current NFL starters that run counter to that argument. Brees threw for 60% consistently. Matt Ryan averaged 59.9% The others were all in the 59% area and actually had 60% in there last year. Russel WIlson actually had 72.8% in his last year when he transferred to Wisconsin. Palmer is the lowest of the bunch but actually pulled our a solid 63.8% his last year. Yeah these are on the cusp of the 60% threshold, so there can be some wiggel room, btu when compared to Allen or Lamar you just don't waste a 1st or 2nd rd pick open these types of QB's IMO. You can tear it apart but your retort did nothing to change my view on what QB's are worthy of a 1st rd pick. I would NOT TAKE A CHANCE ON ALLEN OR LAMAR based 100% on what I know.. Accuracy can not be taught if a QB does not have it he will not find it in the pros. Mechanics can be refined but accuracy is a have it or not situation IMO. SO lets look at Lamar and Allen and compare then to the 4 on this list.. There not even close in regards to completion % of reaching the 60% mark Lamar avg 57% and his best year was Carson Palmers average of 59.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/lamar-jackson-1.html and Josh Allen 56.2% college career completion % Not even worth looking at but maybe the 3rd rd. Anyone who drat Allen earlier is wasting a pick IMO https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html Edited February 15, 2018 by ddaryl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: Fl. State has a FANTASTIC secondary. 1TD and no INT's is good. Clemson: 3td's and 1int, with 317 yards: not bad. that is a fantastic graph. Mayfield is my #1 guy. Rudolph and Allen scare me. Any chance of adding Luke Falk to that chart. I believe he has great accuracy, just not sure where those throws occur (short, deep, etc.). Interesting that Rosen and Jackson have the same "short and intermediate" percentage. Here's the same charts with Falk and Mike White added: And here's the same chart with Mayfield and Allen removed (just because they're such big outliers that it makes everyone else look average) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ddaryl Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 50 minutes ago, DCOrange said: Not that completion percentage completely translates to accuracy, but this seems like a good place to post this: well this means little. When I read this graphic I assume that Lamar threw the deep ball 75% of the time to bring his completion % down so much because this graphic says he is ridiculously accurate passer which the game tapes scouting reports and the stats do not support plus there are lots of reports that all say Lamar has accuracy issues doesn't lead his WR's well etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Coastie said: Story locally here in Kentucky the last couple days is Jackson has not hired an agent, reason stated he is having trouble finding someone he trusts. Good he wants to find responsible representation since so many athletes manage money poorly but it is getting late in the process and one draft "expert" says it could cause him to drop. Take that for what it is worth, we all know how local sports radio can be. why would not having an agent prevent teams from drafting him? This makes zero sense To those who point to Jackson not having great stats against "elite defenses" can look no further than the terrible offensive talent around Jackson the past two years....there was like 1 player from Louisvilles offense that was even drafted over the past two years. I dont see accuracy problems, not any more than any other college QB (or TT) coming out. If we dont go all in to trade up for Rosen/Mayfield/Darnold then I would be thrilled if we took Jackson at 21/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said: I believe this stat is skewed and is not a good indicator for how well some of these players perform against top defenses. For example Louisvlle got blown out by Clemson this year. If you just look at the stats, you would think Jackson had a pretty good game. When you dig a little deeper, Jackson was 12-25 for 115 yards 1 TD and 1 pick 6 @ 2:16 left in the 3rd quarter. If you watch the highlight of the pick 6, it was just a terrible throw. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPO6frJzkog Louisville was down 33-7 late in the third and from there Jackson went, 9-17 for 202 yards, 2 TD's and 0 INT's in garbage time. Louisville wasn't a great team this year and imagine it is not uncommon for QB's to pad there stats against top defenses when the backups are in during garbage time. People are just way to accepting to believe every advanced stat they see has a direct correlation to what is happening on the field. Yes a lot of this stuff is good, but how many of these algorithms are giving people a skewed view of exactly how good a player really is? I think a lot of these stats look nice, but don't apply to what is really happening on the field. There's definitely context that simply looking at the numbers can't adjust for. The second half rally indeed made Lamar look much better statistically than he really was in that game, but that happens with everyone from time to time. Hell, look at Josh Rosen's ridiculous stats in the epic comeback win against Texas A&M. Without proper context, it looks like an absolutely incredible game. But if you watch the film, you'll see that he gave A&M 2 or 3 easy turnovers that went right through their hands, and in one case, turned into a huge TD for UCLA. Rosen played like crap in the first half of that game and then played pretty poorly in the 2nd half, but due to A&M continuously shooting themselves in the foot, they let UCLA come back and win the game and part of Rosen's legend was built on that performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest K-GunJimKelly12 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 45 minutes ago, Southern Bills Fan said: That is really interesting. It definitely scares me away from trading up for Rosen. Rosen was not given much to work with at UCLA, terrible defense and I wasn't too impressed with the run Jim Mora Jr. had there. If he can stay away from concussions and has the desire for a long-term career, I think he is going to be a great one. 2 minutes ago, DCOrange said: There's definitely context that simply looking at the numbers can't adjust for. The second half rally indeed made Lamar look much better statistically than he really was in that game, but that happens with everyone from time to time. Hell, look at Josh Rosen's ridiculous stats in the epic comeback win against Texas A&M. Without proper context, it looks like an absolutely incredible game. But if you watch the film, you'll see that he gave A&M 2 or 3 easy turnovers that went right through their hands, and in one case, turned into a huge TD for UCLA. Rosen played like crap in the first half of that game and then played pretty poorly in the 2nd half, but due to A&M continuously shooting themselves in the foot, they let UCLA come back and win the game and part of Rosen's legend was built on that performance. I remember watching that game. You are right. It was as much about A&M giving it away as it was UCLA making a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ddaryl said: Brees threw for 60% consistently. Matt Ryan averaged 59.9% The others were all in the 59% area and actually had 60% in there last year. Russel WIlson actually had 72.8% in his last year when he transferred to Wisconsin. Palmer is the lowest of the bunch but actually pulled our a solid 63.8% his last year. Yeah these are on the cusp of the 60% threshold, so there can be some wiggel room, btu when compared to Allen or Lamar you just don't waste a 1st or 2nd rd pick open these types of QB's IMO. You can tear it apart but your retort did nothing and I would NOT TAKE A CHANCE ON ALLEN OR LAMAR based 100% on what I know.. Accuracy can not be taught if a QB does nto have it. Mechanics can be refined but accuracy is a have it or not situation. SO lets look at Lamar and Allen and compare then to the 4 on this list.. There not even close in regards to completion % of reaching the 60% mark Lamar avg 57% and his best year was Carson Palmers average of 59.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/lamar-jackson-1.html and Josh Allen 56.2% college career completion % Not even worth looking at but maybe the 3rd rd. Anyone who drat Allen earlier is wasting a pick IMO https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html That's not what you said, and that's not the point. You said that if a guy cannot complete 60% of his passes consistently, then he's not going to develop the ability to do so at the next level. That's simply not true, as evidenced by above. Wilson hitting 72% as a senior does not mean he hit 60 consistently. There are actually many more examples of guys that didn't hit 60% consistently in college that have done so in the pros. The point isn't that Jackson or Allen will be great passers in the NFL; the point is that guys can absolutely improve accuracy from college to the NFL, and it's not exactly rare for them to do so. Case-in-point: Lamar Jackson is leaving for the NFL after his JR year (I believe he should've stayed). Let's compare his numbers through 3 college seasons to those of Russell Wilson through 3 college seasons... Wilson: 36 games played, 682 completions in 1180 att (57.8%), 8545 yards (7.24 YPA), 76 passing TDs and 26 INTs Jackson: 38 games played, 619 completions in 1086 att (57.0%), 9043 yards (8.33 YPA), 69 passing TDs and 27 INTs Dramatically different? Nope. Possible that Jackson simply needs another year (or two) of seasoning? Totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ddaryl said: well this means little. When I read this graphic I assume that Lamar threw the deep ball 75% of the time to bring his completion % down so much because this graphic says he is ridiculously accurate passer which the game tapes scouting reports and the stats do not support plus there are lots of reports that all say Lamar has accuracy issues doesn't lead his WR's well etc... 1. If that were the case and his completion percentage were only low because he were throwing deep more often, that's something that absolutely should be noted when looking at him. A short throw is obviously far easier to complete than a deep throw, so QBs that are dumping it off all the time will naturally have inflated completion percentages. 2. That's not what's going on here though. The numbers in that chart are adjusted for WRs dropping easy passes, throwaways, spikes, and passes batted at the line (the passes batted should be taken note of too, but eliminating those passes was part of ProFootballFocus's attempt to create a more accurate "accuracy" metric since there's no way to tell if those passes would have been on target if not for getting deflected at the line). When adjusting for that, Lamar's completion percentage on all attempts (including the short stuff where Darnold relatively excels) is higher than Darnold. The obvious limitation here is that you can't tell how well-placed the throw was, only that these passes were "catchable", but that same limitation exists in the regular completion percentage number that you were citing as a reason not to consider him. One of the analysts at NDT Scouting (and I believe a writer for the Eagles SBNation blog) is currently working on a breakdown that will specifically look at the numbers behind well-placed balls. He put together a report for all of the Senior Bowl QBs already and it's pretty freaking cool. If you're interested in that report, you can find the link here: https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/ I put together a table comparing the different QBs from that report too, but obviously Rosen, Darnold, and Lamar were not in the Senior Bowl so they aren't included yet. 6 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said: Rosen was not given much to work with at UCLA, terrible defense and I wasn't too impressed with the run Jim Mora Jr. had there. If he can stay away from concussions and has the desire for a long-term career, I think he is going to be a great one. I remember watching that game. You are right. It was as much about A&M giving it away as it was UCLA making a comeback. Yeah. My belief is that you definitely want to be watching the film to be able to see with your own eyes how the QB is performing, but having numbers such as the ones I've posted can help get an idea of how it all breaks down mathematically. Obviously if you watch Rosen throw the ball over 450 times like he did this year, you're going to see a ton of both good and bad throws. The numbers help provide a counter-balance so that your mind doesn't just focus on the good or the bad and accidentally let that skew your opinion too much. The numbers can't capture everything though, and probably the biggest part of quarterbacking: the mental makeup, is something that basically none of us will have the ability to REALLY figure out, at least not as well as the teams can since they get to actually sit down with these guys later in the draft process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 54 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/mattryan/310/careerstats https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/2504775/careerstats https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/russellwilson/2532975/careerstats https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-palmer-1.html http://www.nfl.com/player/carsonpalmer/2505245/careerstats There's more, but here are just a few examples using current NFL starters that run counter to that argument. yeah, but you see..."it ain't never going to happen" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snamsnoops Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Tatonka68 said: Good WR, bad QB. Is this just speculation? I have heard others say this as well.... How do you know? Did he play WR, is there tape on this? We have tape on him as a QB. He isn't that bad.......... However i want a QB that makes throws from the pocket, not someone who takes off on the run to often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBean Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said: Don't get me wrong, I am excited about the Rosen talk but I'm must admit, I'm a little weary about giving up so much to get him. I think the Bills have a great shot at landing Jackson at #21 or they wouldn't need to trade up that far to get him meaning we wont have to give up as much. I see him comparing to Watson from Houston. I like that he can take off blazing down field if a play breaks down. I love that he has elite arm strength which will be a huge advantage if he is playing in Buffalo. The only real knock I see against him is his accuracy, I get it, its a big issue but something that I think he can improve on with the right coaching. It's hard not to be excited about this guy when you see his highlights. Scouting Report from Walterfootball.com http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018ljackson.php No. No. God no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeelingOnYouboty Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 He got better every year throwing the ball and if we're staying at 21 he's the guy we should target and not Mason Rudolph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, snamsnoops said: Is this just speculation? I have heard others say this as well.... How do you know? Did he play WR, is there tape on this? We have tape on him as a QB. He isn't that bad.......... However i want a QB that makes throws from the pocket, not someone who takes off on the run to often. The same things were said about Tyrod.....so you know where this brilliant and detailed analysis is comng from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, John from Hemet said: The same things were said about Tyrod.....so you know where this brilliant and detailed analysis is comng from. Yeah, but can you imagine Tyrod or Lamar catching passes over the middle. Then catch me if you can with the Db's. Whoooop! Touchdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, PolishDave said: Yeah, but can you imagine Tyrod or Lamar catching passes over the middle. Then catch me if you can with the Db's. Whoooop! Touchdown. That is the point I have been trying to make....which falls on deaf ears for some If you had a Tyrod Taylor who was a little taller, threw more accurately over the middle, and didnt hang onto the ball? Well....you would have something really special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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