QB Film Room: Josh Allen

[H2o]

Great arm, great size, good athlete, just inconsistent. People try to compare him to Roethlisberger, but Ben was way more accurate in college. I can see the physical comparison, but that is where it stops. Allen didn't have a good supporting cast around him so I believe this can somewhat be taken into account. The OL was bad as well as the WR group. It's still concerning when a QB getting this much hype can't even complete 60% of his passes in college. I'd take a late 2nd or 3rd Round flier on him, but I wouldn't throw all of my eggs into one basket thinking he was THE guy. 

[CritMark]

For your reading enjoyment, here is a post season analysis by Pro Football Focus: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-josh-allens-2017-season-defined

 

Clearly not high on Josh Allen.  I agree.

 

[Luka]

Allen is very streaky against mediocre competition. Sailing short passes and throwing into the dirt shows there is a problem with his mechanics. Any QB that you feel you have to rebuild fundamentally is not someone that should be picked anywhere before the 4th or 5th round.

[Buffalo716]

4 hours ago, Luka said:

Allen is very streaky against mediocre competition. Sailing short passes and throwing into the dirt shows there is a problem with his mechanics. Any QB that you feel you have to rebuild fundamentally is not someone that should be picked anywhere before the 4th or 5th round.

 

Well unfortunately that's not how it works anymore 

 

Pat Mahomes was very flawed mechanically as well and he just went 10th

 

QBs get over drafted. It's the nature

[JaCrispy]

35 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Well unfortunately that's not how it works anymore 

 

Pat Mahomes was very flawed mechanically as well and he just went 10th

 

QBs get over drafted. It's the nature

Yeah but Mahomes was an accurate passer even with bad mechanics...

[Buffalo716]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

Yeah but Mahomes was an accurate passer even with bad mechanics...

 

Well I never said he wasn't. The other posters point was that a QB with bad fundamentals shouldn't be drafted high

[SWATeam]

One thing that I notice watching his tape is that his interior Oline was dreadful.  He had constant pressure right up the middle.

 

I like him.  Rare tools.

[JaCrispy]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

Well I never said he wasn't. The other posters point was that a QB with bad fundamentals shouldn't be drafted high

Oh I know...I guess I was just trying to interject that KC was able to look passed Mahomes poor mechanics because he didn’t require good mechanics to be accurate...whereas a guy like Allen has poor mechanics and poor accuracy and may fall as a result.

[Buffalo716]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

Oh I know...I guess I was just trying to interject that KC was able to look passed Mahomes poor mechanics because he didn’t require good mechanics to be accurate...whereas a guy like Allen has poor mechanics and poor accuracy and may fall as a result.

 

Of course

 

I'm not a huge Mahomes fan but atleast he displays good accuracy on tape . That could make up for what he lacks in mechanics

[Buffalo Barbarian]

11 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

I don't see any way that happens.  From my count, here are the QB needy teams as well as a few that rumors have them moving on from their incumbent.  I added my perceived likelihood they take a QB.  In a few cases I made a distinction between taking a QB and taking Mayfield specifically if he is on the board.

 

1 & 4 - Cleveland - There is no way they don't take a QB with one of these two picks.  Wait, we're talking about Cleveland! QB = 100%

2 - NY Giants - Now would be the perfect time for them to take a QB to sit behind Eli for 1 year.  QB = 99%

5 - Denver - Their QB situation is a mess. I think they are in the market but think Elway's first option is free agency.  Even with that, taking a longer term QB is a possibility. QB = 75%

6. NY Jets - If Denver passes on a QB I expect to see the Jets take the best of the rest. QB = 60%, Mayfield = 75%

11. Miami - the fans are growing tired of Tannehill.  They have seen enough to know he is not getting them to the SB.  QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

12. Cincinnati - Same as Miami bur insert Dalton for Tannehill. QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

15. Arizona - they have NO QB.  Even if they pick one up in free agency I would expect them to take one here if one of the top five are on the board. QB = 75%

 17. LA Chargers - Not necessarily a needy team, but if Mayfield is on the board, I think they would grab him. QB = 25%, Mayfield = 75%

 

That is a long gauntlet to run in the hopes of getting Mayfield to fall to 21. So the question is, would they bundle the two picks to move up to take a QB of their liking, whoever that may be?

 

 

They better unless they have grander plans

 

 

[JaCrispy]

58 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

 

They better unless they have grander plans

 

 

Agreed

[Ittakestime]

So I watched a little bit on the full games for Wyoming on youtube, and I must say, Allen has a ton of potential.  His team was absolutely terrible around him and the play calling sucked.  There were so many times where he was running for his life.  He would throw dimes to WR and they would drop them.

 

He needs a year of sitting behind an accurate vet.   I would try to get McCown.  I was impressed with him last year and he is an incredible teacher.

[GunnerBill]

3rd round pick. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/16/2018 at 9:06 AM, CritMark said:

 

I don't see any way that happens.  From my count, here are the QB needy teams as well as a few that rumors have them moving on from their incumbent.  I added my perceived likelihood they take a QB.  In a few cases I made a distinction between taking a QB and taking Mayfield specifically if he is on the board.

 

1 & 4 - Cleveland - There is no way they don't take a QB with one of these two picks.  Wait, we're talking about Cleveland! QB = 100%

2 - NY Giants - Now would be the perfect time for them to take a QB to sit behind Eli for 1 year.  QB = 99%

5 - Denver - Their QB situation is a mess. I think they are in the market but think Elway's first option is free agency.  Even with that, taking a longer term QB is a possibility. QB = 75%

6. NY Jets - If Denver passes on a QB I expect to see the Jets take the best of the rest. QB = 60%, Mayfield = 75%

11. Miami - the fans are growing tired of Tannehill.  They have seen enough to know he is not getting them to the SB.  QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

12. Cincinnati - Same as Miami bur insert Dalton for Tannehill. QB = 50%, Mayfield = 75%

15. Arizona - they have NO QB.  Even if they pick one up in free agency I would expect them to take one here if one of the top five are on the board. QB = 75%

 17. LA Chargers - Not necessarily a needy team, but if Mayfield is on the board, I think they would grab him. QB = 25%, Mayfield = 75%

 

That is a long gauntlet to run in the hopes of getting Mayfield to fall to 21. So the question is, would they bundle the two picks to move up to take a QB of their liking, whoever that may be?

 

 

I think Denver is very much an analytics/value type team.  They need a QB, who they take is going to be driven by their perceived value vs. position.

I wouldn't have the hair shocked off me if they trade up to #2 if whoever they like better is there at QB, and if NYG decide they want to give Eli another try under Shurmur and pick up  a developmental prospect later in the 1st/early 2nd. in exchange for more picks to restock the team elsewhere.  (Or, even more picks from someone lower down)

 

If the Jets decide to hang onto McCown they could decide on a prospect as well.

 

I don't think Miami and Cincinnati are going to draft based upon fan opinion.

 

I also don't think the Chargers are going to take a QB "just because".  Coaches have shelf lives.  The Chargers want playoffs next year.  They had the #1 passing offense in the league last year with Rivers and Whisenhunt - an ideal position for them to take whatever missing piece they feel they need to put them "over the hump", whilst stocking the cupboard with a talented 2nd or 3rd round prospect (see: NE, Garappolo, Brady).

 

I don't know about bundle the two picks.  What I could see happening is Beane trying to find a trade partner for a player or two and swapped 1st round picks, to move up.

Then with a higher 1st round pick, we could try to make a 2nd move.

 

 

 

 

[CritMark]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Denver is very much an analytics/value type team.  They need a QB, who they take is going to be driven by their perceived value vs. position.

I wouldn't have the hair shocked off me if they trade up to #2 if whoever they like better is there at QB, and if NYG decide they want to give Eli another try under Shurmur and pick up  a developmental prospect later in the 1st/early 2nd. in exchange for more picks to restock the team elsewhere.  (Or, even more picks from someone lower down)

 

If the Jets decide to hang onto McCown they could decide on a prospect as well.

 

I don't think Miami and Cincinnati are going to draft based upon fan opinion.

 

I also don't think the Chargers are going to take a QB "just because".  Coaches have shelf lives.  The Chargers want playoffs next year.  They had the #1 passing offense in the league last year with Rivers and Whisenhunt - an ideal position for them to take whatever missing piece they feel they need to put them "over the hump", whilst stocking the cupboard with a talented 2nd or 3rd round prospect (see: NE, Garappolo, Brady).

 

I don't know about bundle the two picks.  What I could see happening is Beane trying to find a trade partner for a player or two and swapped 1st round picks, to move up.

Then with a higher 1st round pick, we could try to make a 2nd move.

 

 

 

 

 

Agree on Denver but disagree on the Giants. I don't think they see themselves drafting this low again and they know Eli is winding down.  Given a deep QB class they need to take a top talent this year.  I think that means they either stay at 2 or trade back no more than a few spots.

 

The more I read, I don't think Cincinnati will take a QB short of a big drop on a top guy.  I expect them to trade back.

 

Miami is another story, I still think they are a player if the right QB is there, and I think Mayfield would entice them to pull the trigger.

 

I agree San Diego isn't going to take just anybody but another team that I think will pull the trigger on their next FQB if that guys is there when they pick.

 

There are two big wildcards in this draft IMO.  First is Josh Allen.  You know, they guy who can't hit a net unguarded from 10 yards away.  If he slips based on things like that, the board changes significantly. 

 

Second is the teams that have aging QBs that know they need to find a replacement, even if they plan to let him hold a clipboard for a couple of years.  Given the deep class, they don't have to trade up to the #1 pick to get him.  Maybe top five, but not all the way to #1.  This would include the Saints, Chargers and Steelers.  Even the Packers with Rodgers turning 35 towards the end of the 2018 season.  If one of the top guys slips even a little, don't be surprised if one of these teams is actively looking to trade up to secure that next guy now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

47 minutes ago, CritMark said:

 

Agree on Denver but disagree on the Giants. I don't think they see themselves drafting this low again and they know Eli is winding down.  Given a deep QB class they need to take a top talent this year.  I think that means they either stay at 2 or trade back no more than a few spots.

 

The more I read, I don't think Cincinnati will take a QB short of a big drop on a top guy.  I expect them to trade back.

 

Miami is another story, I still think they are a player if the right QB is there, and I think Mayfield would entice them to pull the trigger.

 

I agree San Diego isn't going to take just anybody but another team that I think will pull the trigger on their next FQB if that guys is there when they pick.

 

There are two big wildcards in this draft IMO.  First is Josh Allen.  You know, they guy who can't hit a net unguarded from 10 yards away.  If he slips based on things like that, the board changes significantly. 

 

Second is the teams that have aging QBs that know they need to find a replacement, even if they plan to let him hold a clipboard for a couple of years.  Given the deep class, they don't have to trade up to the #1 pick to get him.  Maybe top five, but not all the way to #1.  This would include the Saints, Chargers and Steelers.  Even the Packers with Rodgers turning 35 towards the end of the 2018 season.  If one of the top guys slips even a little, don't be surprised if one of these teams is actively looking to trade up to secure that next guy now.

 

Well, I can always be surprised, but I would be surprised if anyone with a top QB already on the payroll trades up to take a guy.

 

These are typically the teams that will throw a 2nd through 5th round pick at a guy they like if he falls to or past where they have him valued, let the guy compete with other backups, and keep the best - because with a great QB already on the roster, their cap space may be tight, they need to keep a team around him, and the best way to do that is through the draft.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Packers used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seeking an upgrade to Brett Hundley, but they need a better OL and a defense way more than they need a top draft pick QB.

 

I think we at the Bills, so QB hungry as we are, have a tendency to both overvalue our own backup QB (the 'don't expose Levi Brown on the practice squad' story; Peterman) and also assume that every team is going to compete with us for the resource we're seeking.

 

Miami might.

 

 

[CritMark]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, I can always be surprised, but I would be surprised if anyone with a top QB already on the payroll trades up to take a guy.

 

These are typically the teams that will throw a 2nd through 5th round pick at a guy they like if he falls to or past where they have him valued, let the guy compete with other backups, and keep the best - because with a great QB already on the roster, their cap space may be tight, they need to keep a team around him, and the best way to do that is through the draft.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Packers used a 2nd or 3rd round pick on a QB seeking an upgrade to Brett Hundley, but they need a better OL and a defense way more than they need a top draft pick QB.

 

I think we at the Bills, so QB hungry as we are, have a tendency to both overvalue our own backup QB (the 'don't expose Levi Brown on the practice squad' story; Peterman) and also assume that every team is going to compete with us for the resource we're seeking.

 

Miami might.

 

 

 

I understand the sentiment but at some time you are going to have to find the replacement guy. 

 

Look at the Saints.  Brees turned 39 this month.  People forget that with all the Brady talk. How much longer do they think they can ride this horse?  Who is next in line if he goes down?  I had to look it up.  Chase Daniels (an UFA by the way) and some guy named Taysom Hill, a 27 year old rookie from BYU.  BTW - the rookie is the tallest for the three at 6'2".  If they think they have Brees' replacement that's one thing.  Do you think one of those two is their next FQB?  Talk about overvaluing your own backup. 

 

Pre draft rumors abound and most of it is nonsense.  However, a lot of 'experts' have Mayfield being drafted at 13 by Washington.  If he gets by the Jets at 6, the next QB needy team is likely Washington assuming the Fins don't grab him at 11 or the Bengals at 12, just because the guy fell to them.  If neither of those are interested in a QB, do you think they would not shop the pick to a team like the Saints?  I think they would and I think the Saints would bite. 

 

Besides, as I previously mentioned, he current CBO makes this palatable.  Watson went 12 last year and signed an almost $14MM 4 year deal.  Miami paid Cutler $10MM for 1 year. This would not just be a reasonable play, I think it would be a good play for the Saints.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, CritMark said:

 

I understand the sentiment but at some time you are going to have to find the replacement guy. 

 

Look at the Saints.  Brees turned 39 this month.  People forget that with all the Brady talk. How much longer do they think they can ride this horse?  Who is next in line if he goes down?  I had to look it up.  Chase Daniels (an UFA by the way) and some guy named Taysom Hill, a 27 year old rookie from BYU.  BTW - the rookie is the tallest for the three at 6'2".  If they think they have Brees' replacement that's one thing.  Do you think one of those two is their next FQB?  Talk about overvaluing your own backup. 

 

Pre draft rumors abound and most of it is nonsense.  However, a lot of 'experts' have Mayfield being drafted at 13 by Washington.  If he gets by the Jets at 6, the next QB needy team is likely Washington assuming the Fins don't grab him at 11 or the Bengals at 12, just because the guy fell to them.  If neither of those are interested in a QB, do you think they would not shop the pick to a team like the Saints?  I think they would and I think the Saints would bite. 

 

Besides, as I previously mentioned, he current CBO makes this palatable.  Watson went 12 last year and signed an almost $14MM 4 year deal.  Miami paid Cutler $10MM for 1 year. This would not just be a reasonable play, I think it would be a good play for the Saints.

 

We see the same things, but we  come to different conclusions, Crit.  The point to understand is that coaches and teams with a great QB and a window, want to exploit that window.  The Saints are close.  They are gonna be looking to put all their draft horses into pulling them over the top.  With the Saints I say "all", because they are a team that historically does NOT use enough draft picks on developmental QB (same true of Chargers).  They SHOULD be doing what GB and NE do, but they aren't.  Brees, you may recall, is the QB who threw a hissy at reports the Saints planned to draft Mahomes last year.  I could be surprised, but I doubt they spend and move up.

 

Chase Daniel, you may recall, is the QB signed to a 3 year, $21M deal by the Eagles when they traded for Sam Bradford - Sam's "injury insurance".  He's neither Drew Brees nor Nick Foles, but he's a much better QB than his UDFA status and his NFL pedigree as a clipboard holder would have you believe.  I saw him at Mizzou, and the only way in which he wasn't a much much better QB than Blaine Gabbert who went in the 1st is his height - he's a shrimp, like Brees.

[CritMark]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We see the same things, but we  come to different conclusions, Crit.  The point to understand is that coaches and teams with a great QB and a window, want to exploit that window.  The Saints are close.  They are gonna be looking to put all their draft horses into pulling them over the top.  With the Saints I say "all", because they are a team that historically does NOT use enough draft picks on developmental QB (same true of Chargers).  They SHOULD be doing what GB and NE do, but they aren't.  Brees, you may recall, is the QB who threw a hissy at reports the Saints planned to draft Mahomes last year.  I could be surprised, but I doubt they spend and move up.

 

Chase Daniel, you may recall, is the QB signed to a 3 year, $21M deal by the Eagles when they traded for Sam Bradford - Sam's "injury insurance".  He's neither Drew Brees nor Nick Foles, but he's a much better QB than his UDFA status and his NFL pedigree as a clipboard holder would have you believe.  I saw him at Mizzou, and the only way in which he wasn't a much much better QB than Blaine Gabbert who went in the 1st is his height - he's a shrimp, like Brees.

 

We will have to agree to disagree, on multiple points.  You think a lot more of Daniels than I do.  While he did sign a big deal with the Eagles, it was front end loaded.  The salary cap hit to NO last year was under $1MM.  I don't see any way he gets a $7MM/year deal with them for 2018.

 

There is also a big difference between Mayfield and Mahomes.  Brees has come out publicly saying he like Mayfield.  Also, by any measure, Mayfield is a better QB.  Here are some stats from 2016 on eight common opponents for the two.

 

Mahomes - completion 65.2% - TD/INT ratio 3.1/1.0 - QB Rating 144.8

Mayfield - completion 73.2% - TD/INT ratio 4.0/1.0 - QB Rating 200.7

 

In raw numbers, Mahomes threw 162 more passes (371 to 209) and threw 2 fewer TDs (22 to 24).   It's not even close.

 

Two more reasons they would consider a move for Mayfield.  Since 2000 only three seasons has a QB have had a rating above 200.  That would be Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield.  Only two QBs with over 1000 attempts have a career rating over 170, Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield. 

 

Sometimes you have to take a chance.  I think this guy is worth taking that chance for.  I respect any opinion to the contrary however.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/26/2018 at 10:21 AM, CritMark said:

 

We will have to agree to disagree, on multiple points.  You think a lot more of Daniels than I do.  While he did sign a big deal with the Eagles, it was front end loaded.  The salary cap hit to NO last year was under $1MM.  I don't see any way he gets a $7MM/year deal with them for 2018.

 

There is also a big difference between Mayfield and Mahomes.  Brees has come out publicly saying he like Mayfield.  Also, by any measure, Mayfield is a better QB.  Here are some stats from 2016 on eight common opponents for the two.

 

Mahomes - completion 65.2% - TD/INT ratio 3.1/1.0 - QB Rating 144.8

Mayfield - completion 73.2% - TD/INT ratio 4.0/1.0 - QB Rating 200.7

 

In raw numbers, Mahomes threw 162 more passes (371 to 209) and threw 2 fewer TDs (22 to 24).   It's not even close.

 

Two more reasons they would consider a move for Mayfield.  Since 2000 only three seasons has a QB have had a rating above 200.  That would be Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield.  Only two QBs with over 1000 attempts have a career rating over 170, Marcus Mariota and Baker Mayfield. 

 

Sometimes you have to take a chance.  I think this guy is worth taking that chance for.  I respect any opinion to the contrary however.

 

Do you really think differences in gaudy completion percentages in college have that much meaning? 

 

As far as I can tell, both Mahomes and Mayfield are QB from a simplified "air raid" offense that favors gaudy passing numbers.  I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth.  And Mahomes has what, 2-3" on Mayfield?

 

I'm not in any way arguing that Mayfield isn't worth a chance as a QB.  I'm just saying the QB acquisition draft math is different when a team has a high end QB and is able to contend for a championship.  Sure, they should take a shot at QB, but why not draft a later-round guy who might become good with a bit of seasoning - their Garappolo type?  Why trade up for a QB, when they could stay pat (or trade up) for the missing piece that might get them back to the Superbowl?

 

As far as Chase Daniel, he's started 2 games in KC; he played reasonably well in a tight loss in one, and "meh" in a win in the other.  At his best, he can do this or this.  There's about as much (and as little) evidence that Daniels can play QB in the NFL as there is for AJ McCarron, but AJ has 3' on Chase (and at this point, Chase may not have the "want to", some guys get comfortable playing the backup role)

 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...safe to assume now that Browns' luvfest with McCarron is over even though he's a UFA?......drafting one doesn't say much for Kizer.............

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

...safe to assume now that Browns' luvfest with McCarron is over even though he's a UFA?......drafting one doesn't say much for Kizer.............

 

IMO with 2 picks in the 1st 4 and a strong QB class, it's a no brainer for the Browns to pick a QB, whether or not they like Kizer.  If he's a year ahead in his development, he lets the draftee sit for a season, or half a season.

 

It's a low risk/high reward scenario for them.  They could wind up with 2 talented QB (oh! the horror!) and trade one.

[CritMark]

On 2/24/2018 at 10:43 AM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you really think differences in gaudy completion percentages in college have that much meaning? 

 

As far as I can tell, both Mahomes and Mayfield are QB from a simplified "air raid" offense that favors gaudy passing numbers.  I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth.  And Mahomes has what, 2-3" on Mayfield?

 

I'm not in any way arguing that Mayfield isn't worth a chance as a QB.  I'm just saying the QB acquisition draft math is different when a team has a high end QB and is able to contend for a championship.  Sure, they should take a shot at QB, but why not draft a later-round guy who might become good with a bit of seasoning - their Garappolo type?  Why trade up for a QB, when they could stay pat (or trade up) for the missing piece that might get them back to the Superbowl?

 

As far as Chase Daniel, he's started 2 games in KC; he played reasonably well in a tight loss in one, and "meh" in a win in the other.  At his best, he can do this or this.  There's about as much (and as little) evidence that Daniels can play QB in the NFL as there is for AJ McCarron, but AJ has 3' on Chase (and at this point, Chase may not have the "want to", some guys get comfortable playing the backup role)

 

 

 

Help me understand something. If you have two QBs that play in a similar system and both benefit from one "that favors gaudy passing numbers", to use your words, and one of those two QBs has much better numbers statistically than the other, why is that not meaningful?  Even if both are inflated, one QB did more with the system they both played in.

 

I touched on this in another post to address looking at the quality of competition.  I looked at the six top rated defenses faced in 2017 by Darnold, Rosen and Mayfield.  I won't go through all the stats again now, but happy to if you would like.  Bottom line was the average ranking of the top six defenses played was Darnold (31), Rosen (56) and Mayfield (19). So Mayfield faced MUCH better defenses than either of the other two top prospects and the stats were not even close.  As I said, happy to post all the stats for you.

 

My point isn't that the Bills need to trade up for Mayfield.  My point is however, if the Bills, or any other team, wants to take a QB at the top of the draft, Mayfield should be in the conversation as the first QB off the board.  Not absolutely the first QB, but seriously in the conversation.

[Solomon Grundy]

The first minute says it all!!! I love this guy. Very articulate!!

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/15/2018 at 10:48 PM, Buffalo716 said:

 

Well of course I will publish my scouting report here but for a quick spoiler yes he is ahead of Allen on my big board by quite a bit

 

As of today they aren't close as QBs. Baker is better hands down in his development 

 

 

CAN'T WAIT! asfdsdfsdfsdfsdfasdfasfddsadf

[Solomon Grundy]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

CAN'T WAIT! asfdsdfsdfsdfsdfasdfasfddsadf

Hapless, please watch above video. Funny as hell

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Hapless, please watch above video. Funny as hell

 

Yeah, Voch Lombardi is funny.  For scouting videos, he's kind of the poster-child for ADD, so I prefer someone who sticks closer to the point, but he knows his stuff.

 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, Voch Lombardi is funny.  For scouting videos, he's kind of the poster-child for ADD, so I prefer someone who sticks closer to the point, but he knows his stuff.

 

He missed the entire net!!

[Augie]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, Voch Lombardi is funny.  For scouting videos, he's kind of the poster-child for ADD, so I prefer someone who sticks closer to the point, but he knows his stuff.

 

My favorite line: “can you imagine if the NBA draft judged players by how hard they throw it at the rim?” 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

40 minutes ago, the skycap said:

He missed the entire net!!

 

I am not an Allen fan.  I am mystified by the whole Allen-love thing.   No, his WR don't have the most drops.  Yes, he didn't have much talent on his team but he was also playing against a lower level of competition.  I thought Voch had a good point - with some of the other QB, when they're inaccurate he can see the clear connection to a breakdown in their footwork and hip follow through on that particular throw.  Fix the mechanics, you fix the throw.  With Allen, sometimes his mechanics look good and he's not under pressure and the ball still doesn't go to the right place (as with that net).

[Augie]

17 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I am not an Allen fan.  I am mystified by the whole Allen-love thing.   No, his WR don't have the most drops.  Yes, he didn't have much talent on his team but he was also playing against a lower level of competition.  I thought Voch had a good point - with some of the other QB, when they're inaccurate he can see the clear connection to a breakdown in their footwork and hip follow through on that particular throw.  Fix the mechanics, you fix the throw.  With Allen, sometimes his mechanics look good and he's not under pressure and the ball still doesn't go to the right place (as with that net).

 

The first time I saw him he one hopped a bubble screen, and even after seeing some great stuff, that EJ-esque type of play stuck with me. If we get him, I’ll hope I’m wrong. If I’m right, I’ll hope he ends up on the Jets! 

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

My favorite line: “can you imagine if the NBA draft judged players by how hard they throw it at the rim?” 

He's entertaining and knowledgeable at the same time.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

Help me understand something. If you have two QBs that play in a similar system and both benefit from one "that favors gaudy passing numbers", to use your words, and one of those two QBs has much better numbers statistically than the other, why is that not meaningful?  Even if both are inflated, one QB did more with the system they both played in.

 

I thought I spelled this out quite clearly: " I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth."

 

IOW, to repeat myself, Your part about the quality of the defenses they faced is only one of about 5 things I want to know.

 

I'll give as an example, Mason Rudolph.  Also plays in an "air raid" system that favors big numbers.  65% completion, 4904 yds on 489 attempts.  If I'm comparing that to Baker Mayfield's 70.5% completions on 404 throws for 4627 yds, it's relatively straightforward because they played in the same conference against generally the same quality of competition, and both in big programs that get good recruits.  From what I've seen, I'm more impressed with Mayfield (of the two) because I see him as attempting higher DOD throws more often, making some progressions, and showing more escapability.  I think Rudolph's completion percentage over-states his accuracy because I think his WR helped him out a lot by coming back for throws etc. 

 

But still, he threw for more yards on more attempts.  How do their stats compare when adjusted for throw-aways, spikes, etc?  When looked at different distances and placement of throws?  Is Mayfield really rocking a higher completion percentage because of more short throws that pad the stats combined with a bunch of deep bombs that pad the yardage?

 

These kind of stats exist, and maybe when one looks at them one sees that Mayfield is a much better QB than Mahomes was.  Or maybe not.

 

As far as rankings on defenses, I dunno; what I see with Rosen is that he didn't seem to have a lot of talent around him.  I believe his WR are second in drops to Lamar Jacksons, 11% to 12%, dropped 31 passes, and I didn't like Rosen's OL when I watched some film from last year.  So yes I believe they faced a lower level of competition, but I think it also has to be looked at what was the level of talent on their own team and that was lower (just as with Rudolph, I felt he benefited from a good OL and great WR.  I covet one of his WR).

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan

[CritMark]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I thought I spelled this out quite clearly: " I would think one would have to look very carefully under the hood at the quality of competition they faced and the quality of their WR and OL, as well as the details of the play calling and to what degree they were throwing into tight windows, making progressions, and so forth."

 

IOW, to repeat myself, Your part about the quality of the defenses they faced is only one of about 5 things I want to know.

 

I'll give as an example, Mason Rudolph.  Also plays in an "air raid" system that favors big numbers.  65% completion, 4904 yds on 489 attempts.  If I'm comparing that to Baker Mayfield's 70.5% completions on 404 throws for 4627 yds, it's relatively straightforward because they played in the same conference against generally the same quality of competition, and both in big programs that get good recruits.  From what I've seen, I'm more impressed with Mayfield (of the two) because I see him as attempting higher DOD throws more often, making some progressions, and showing more escapability.  I think Rudolph's completion percentage over-states his accuracy because I think his WR helped him out a lot by coming back for throws etc. 

 

But still, he threw for more yards on more attempts.  How do their stats compare when adjusted for throw-aways, spikes, etc?  When looked at different distances and placement of throws?  Is Mayfield really rocking a higher completion percentage because of more short throws that pad the stats combined with a bunch of deep bombs that pad the yardage?

 

These kind of stats exist, and maybe when one looks at them one sees that Mayfield is a much better QB than Mahomes was.  Or maybe not.

 

As far as rankings on defenses, I dunno; what I see with Rosen is that he didn't seem to have a lot of talent around him.  I believe his WR are second in drops to Lamar Jacksons, 11% to 12%, dropped 31 passes, and I didn't like Rosen's OL when I watched some film from last year.  So yes I believe they faced a lower level of competition, but I think it also has to be looked at what was the level of talent on their own team and that was lower (just as with Rudolph, I felt he benefited from a good OL and great WR.  I covet one of his WR).

 

 

Ok, here is my frustration.  Any objective measure used to support Mayfield is met with subjective, impossible to measure responses.  Please note, I am not at all calling you out specifically, I appreciate your reasoned replies.  This is more of a general frustration.  Here is an example.

 

Fact: Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage. 

Response 1: But he played in the Big 12 where they don't play defense.

Rebuttal 1: The Pac 12 in 2017 was ranked worse than the Big 12 in defense but neither Rosen nor Darnold get any such criticism.

Response 2: But Mayfield had better talent around him.

Rebuttal 2: Looking at recruiting class rankings USC had the far better recruiting classes consistently with UCLA and OU roughly even.

Response 3: But everyone knows OU does a better job of developing talent.

Rebuttal 3: If everyone knows that, why does USC continue to draw better talent?  wouldn't it be in the players interest to chose OU over USC?

Response 4: Well it's all just a guessing game trying to evaluate talent coming out of high school.

 

So if everything comes down to dismissing everything to a guessing game, then throw out all the stats and just look at how a players feels to you.  Oh wait, that's what they seem to be doing with Josh Allen.  My bad.

 

I could go on but you get my drift.  It doesn't matter what objective measure you want to apply, there is always an excuse to dismiss it and most of the time is it grossly subjective and not supported by facts  

 

You are absolutely correct, there are a lot of stats out there that compute adjusted percentage to account for spikes etc. Mayfield still leads the country.  You yourself question if short throws pad the stats.  There are stats out there as well and Mayfields production holds up at any distance.  Mayfield's completion  and rating are far better than the other QB prospects at any distance, short, medium or long.  Here's one more for you, Mayfield's passer rating under pressure was better that Rosen & Darnold when they had no pressure. Here are two quotes from ProFootballFocus:

 

Every number you choose to focus on puts Mayfield head and shoulders above the rest of the class. His NFL passer rating when kept clean in the pocket was 143.8 in 2017, more than 20.0 points higher than any of the other potential top quarterbacks. 

 

Mayfield was more productive and efficient when pressured than the other top prospects were when kept clean in 2017.

 

Are there other factors that need to be looked at, absolutely.  How about, maybe the reason the offensive talent at OU looked better or developed better was do in some part to the QB elevating the talent around him!  Just an idea.

 

OK, stepping off my soap box now.  As I said, I appreciate your thoughtful and respectful dialog.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, CritMark said:

 

Ok, here is my frustration.  Any objective measure used to support Mayfield is met with subjective, impossible to measure responses.  Please note, I am not at all calling you out specifically, I appreciate your reasoned replies.  This is more of a general frustration.  Here is an example.

 

 

Goodness, I seem to have struck a nerve.  My only point was that I'm not prepared to look at Mahomes completion percentage and yardage last year and Mayfields completion percentage and yardage this year, and on the basis of that proclaim Mayfield a better QB prospect (your op to which I responded)

 

There are a lot of things that go into the effectiveness of a QB play besides yardage and completion percentage.  We see that in the NFL, though of course some resist the notion

 

I do agree at this time of year it goes nuts with the QB some people favor getting lots of excuses.  I know nothing about rating of "recruits", which sounds very tenuous to me, but my eyes tell me that Rosen did not have a lot of talent on his OL and WR this year, and indeed, stats back that up with high drops.  Mayfield had good WR and a pretty good OL from what I can see, but not as good as Rudolph (I covet one of Rudolph's WR).

 

I like Mayfield and would be happy if we drafted him.  I think he will probably fall further than many draft pundits think, because teams just don't like 6' QB.

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, CritMark said:

 

Ok, here is my frustration.  Any objective measure used to support Mayfield is met with subjective, impossible to measure responses.  Please note, I am not at all calling you out specifically, I appreciate your reasoned replies.  This is more of a general frustration.  Here is an example.

 

Fact: Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage. 

Response 1: But he played in the Big 12 where they don't play defense.

Rebuttal 1: The Pac 12 in 2017 was ranked worse than the Big 12 in defense but neither Rosen nor Darnold get any such criticism.

Response 2: But Mayfield had better talent around him.

Rebuttal 2: Looking at recruiting class rankings USC had the far better recruiting classes consistently with UCLA and OU roughly even.

Response 3: But everyone knows OU does a better job of developing talent.

Rebuttal 3: If everyone knows that, why does USC continue to draw better talent?  wouldn't it be in the players interest to chose OU over USC?

Response 4: Well it's all just a guessing game trying to evaluate talent coming out of high school.

 

So if everything comes down to dismissing everything to a guessing game, then throw out all the stats and just look at how a players feels to you.  Oh wait, that's what they seem to be doing with Josh Allen.  My bad.

 

I could go on but you get my drift.  It doesn't matter what objective measure you want to apply, there is always an excuse to dismiss it and most of the time is it grossly subjective and not supported by facts  

 

You are absolutely correct, there are a lot of stats out there that compute adjusted percentage to account for spikes etc. Mayfield still leads the country.  You yourself question if short throws pad the stats.  There are stats out there as well and Mayfields production holds up at any distance.  Mayfield's completion  and rating are far better than the other QB prospects at any distance, short, medium or long.  Here's one more for you, Mayfield's passer rating under pressure was better that Rosen & Darnold when they had no pressure. Here are two quotes from ProFootballFocus:

 

Every number you choose to focus on puts Mayfield head and shoulders above the rest of the class. His NFL passer rating when kept clean in the pocket was 143.8 in 2017, more than 20.0 points higher than any of the other potential top quarterbacks. 

 

Mayfield was more productive and efficient when pressured than the other top prospects were when kept clean in 2017.

 

Are there other factors that need to be looked at, absolutely.  How about, maybe the reason the offensive talent at OU looked better or developed better was do in some part to the QB elevating the talent around him!  Just an idea.

 

OK, stepping off my soap box now.  As I said, I appreciate your thoughtful and respectful dialog.

 

We had this convo before and I'd just like to point out that i never tried to bash USC as a program

 

they are both top 10 historic programs and draw top 10-20 recruiting classes yearly.

 

My point was that Oklahomas record the past 8 years suggested they develop talent slightly better

 

of course USC pulls 5* and 4* but so does OU. But OUs been better 

[billspro]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

We had this convo before and I'd just like to point out that i never tried to bash USC as a program

 

they are both top 10 historic programs and draw top 10-20 recruiting classes yearly.

 

My point was that Oklahomas record the past 8 years suggested they develop talent slightly better

 

of course USC pulls 5* and 4* but so does OU. But OUs been better 

 

The one thing that is a little scary with Mayfield is just how open his WRs get. Lamb looks like a top 5 WR prospect in his draft year, he has an NFL TE, and a few other NFL prospects at the WR position, and a very good oline. I still really like Mayfield as a prospect but you have to take that into account. 

 

Where as Josh Allen had the worst team around him. I don't think I have ever seen an oline play as bad as Wyomings. That definitely hurt Allens completion percentage. Allen is the most difficult prospect to evaluate. His protection always breaks down so you don't get to see him go through his reads, his accuracy drops off considerably after his first read but that may be due to protection issues as well, and he looks to run without the play developing but that could be because his WRs suck. He also makes some throws on tape that only he can make, very special arm. 

[Buffalo716]

5 hours ago, billspro said:

 

The one thing that is a little scary with Mayfield is just how open his WRs get. Lamb looks like a top 5 WR prospect in his draft year, he has an NFL TE, and a few other NFL prospects at the WR position, and a very good oline. I still really like Mayfield as a prospect but you have to take that into account. 

 

Where as Josh Allen had the worst team around him. I don't think I have ever seen an oline play as bad as Wyomings. That definitely hurt Allens completion percentage. Allen is the most difficult prospect to evaluate. His protection always breaks down so you don't get to see him go through his reads, his accuracy drops off considerably after his first read but that may be due to protection issues as well, and he looks to run without the play developing but that could be because his WRs suck. He also makes some throws on tape that only he can make, very special arm. 

 

The thing with Allen is all the excuses people come up with... I don't like excuses in life let alone on the football field

 

yes he has a tremendous arm and makes wow throws. Yes he is big and very athletic 

 

The excuse this year was that he carried a team with a lack of talent... No WRs , no line, no TE...

 

but last year he had a WR go to the NFL and a TE, a RB and a lineman. He had tons of talent especially for the mountain west and he still couldn't reach 60%

 

On the flip, Josh Rosen and UCLA was top 10 in the country in drops and his stats are phenomenal since he was a true freshman 

 

Allen isn't as inaccurate as people think but I don't think he is as good a QB rn as Rosen, Darnold and Baker 

 

and he never may be

Edited February 28, 2018 by Buffalo716

[billspro]

4 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

The thing with Allen is all the excuses people come up with... I don't like excuses in life let alone on the football field

 

yes he has a tremendous arm and makes wow throws. Yes he is big and very athletic 

 

The excuse this year was that he carried a team with a lack of talent... No WRs , no line, no TE...

 

but last year he had a WR go to the NFL and a TE, a RB and a lineman. He had tons of talent especially for the mountain west and he still couldn't reach 60%

 

On the flip, Josh Rosen and UCLA was top 10 in the country in drops and his stats are phenomenal since he was a true freshman 

 

Allen isn't as inaccurate as people think but I don't think he is as good a QB rn as Rosen, Darnold and Baker 

 

and he never may be

 

I agree with you, I have Allen as my QB5

[Hapless Bills Fan]

17 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

 

The thing with Allen is all the excuses people come up with... I don't like excuses in life let alone on the football field

yes he has a tremendous arm and makes wow throws. Yes he is big and very athletic 

The excuse this year was that he carried a team with a lack of talent... No WRs , no line, no TE...

but last year he had a WR go to the NFL and a TE, a RB and a lineman. He had tons of talent especially for the mountain west and he still couldn't reach 60%

On the flip, Josh Rosen and UCLA was top 10 in the country in drops and his stats are phenomenal since he was a true freshman 

Allen isn't as inaccurate as people think but I don't think he is as good a QB rn as Rosen, Darnold and Baker 

and he never may be

 

The thing about Allen is, is he consistent and accurate when not under pressure? 

 

Voch Lombardi in his scouting film pointed out that with Lamar Jackson, he could predict when he would be inaccurate because his footwork was off before he threw (other throws, the mechanics are proper, and the throws on target).  But with Allen, he would see what looked like good mechanics and adequate time to throw, and sometimes his throw would still be off target.  If that's true, it may be harder for Allen to fix things.  The first challenge will be to identify the problem. 

 

Then there's that Senior Bowl throw at the nets.  Allen.  Net #2.  Sailing, sailing.  We'll see.

 

What bothers me about the "lack of talent Wyoming" thing, is that it seems to me it's also true of most of the teams he faced, so it should come out in the wash, vs guys who had more talent around them, but also faced more talent.

 

Edited March 1, 2018 by Hapless Bills Fan