So, 4-12 predictors...how's that working out?

[DriveFor1Outta5]

17 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Spot on, boom or bust!

If the Bills can't go 4-2 from here out there is zero reason to win another game as it just hurts us like it has so many years prior.

Some people forget but the way the late 80's and 90's team were built came from from these poor records

 

1982 4-5 (NFL strike year) = 83 draft - Jim Kelly and Daryl Talley

1983 8-8 = 84 draft - BLAH! - Greg Bell

1984  2-14 = 85 draft - Bruce and Reed

1985 2-14 = 86 draft - Will Wolford

1986 4-12 = 87 draft - Colan, Odoms, House

1987  7-8 (NFL strike year) = 88 draft - Thurman Thomas

 

6 year span 27-61 record

 

1988 up - Magic began to happen

 

 

I agree, that’s how the nucleus of our 90’s teams was built. Sadly we’ve had plenty of high draft choices throughout the 00’s as well. We have yet to use them wisely. There have been far too many Greg Bell type picks in recent years. I’m not sure I have confidence that Beane is the guy to break that trend. For all of our sake, I hope that he is. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, DriveFor1Outta5 said:

I agree, that’s how the nucleus of our 90’s teams was built. Sadly we’ve had plenty of high draft choices throughout the 00’s as well. We have yet to use them wisely. There have been far too many Greg Bell type picks in recent years. I’m not sure I have confidence that Beane is the guy to break that trend. For all of our sake, I hope that he is. 

 

But I thought Whaley was a good GM?

[BringBackOrton]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That was pre-free agency......and the salary cap.........with a huge assist from the USFL folding..........so not applicable.

 

Been well documented the issues with Bills stars back in the 1980's........McD would have declined Kelly's 5th year option and traded Bruce and Andre for someone's comp picks.

Bruce and Talley were USFL guys?  Funny how having some high picks in talented areas led us to the best era in franchise history.  

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, jmc12290 said:

Bruce and Talley were USFL guys?  Funny how having some high picks in talented areas led us to the best era in franchise history.  

 

Great post, and to educate the ignorant masses, how did we acquire those high picks?

[FappyTheClown]

So is the OP happy about 5 wins with possibly 1 or two more? 

[BADOLBILZ]

19 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

That sounds like the 7-year plan post a couple weeks ago.

Actually, the USFL folding didn't have much to do with it; without drafting Kelly the Bills wouldn't have had his rights, so I'm not sure why that matters. And several years of high draft picks were pivotal in building a very strong core of young players, something that we don't have now unless T. White all by himself counts as a "core." Maybe we should nickname him "Core"

 

 

The USFL served as a free training ground for Kelly........who knows what a few years in a popgun offense behind a bad OL on an awful team would have done to his development but judging from the results in 1986 I'd say it would have been bad.........I think Kent Hull was like getting an extra first round pick but perhaps you didn't value him........Ray Bentley was a very good starting LB for the Bills from 88-90 and made plays in the playoffs..........and Scott Norwood was a valued kicker until he started to fade in 1990.    The timing of the USFL fold was VERY fortuitous for the Bills and really helped them stack talent in a hurry.

[vincec]

On 11/23/2017 at 1:41 PM, Real McCoy said:

Spot on, boom or bust!

If the Bills can't go 4-2 from here out there is zero reason to win another game as it just hurts us like it has so many years prior.

Some people forget but the way the late 80's and 90's team were built came from from these poor records

 

1982 4-5 (NFL strike year) = 83 draft - Jim Kelly and Daryl Talley

1983 8-8 = 84 draft - BLAH! - Greg Bell

1984  2-14 = 85 draft - Bruce and Reed

1985 2-14 = 86 draft - Will Wolford

1986 4-12 = 87 draft - Colan, Odoms, House

1987  7-8 (NFL strike year) = 88 draft - Thurman Thomas

 

6 year span 27-61 record

 

1988 up - Magic began to happen

 

 

How is the tanking working out for the Sabres?

 

If all it took was losing to win championships then the Browns would be multiple year Champions.

[Real McClappy]

2 hours ago, vincec said:

How is the tanking working out for the Sabres?

 

If all it took was losing to win championships then the Browns would be multiple year Champions.

Where the Sabres come from? Apples and Oranges there with a BS lottery draft system.

 

The list was to show the obvious of getting a QB and then building around him.  Would Bill Polian of been as successful if GM McGroder did not draft Kelly in 1983 or Bledsoe drafting Bruce and Reed in 1985? I for one doubt it.

 

The list is to prove you draft your franchise QB and build around him, not the other way around.

Edited November 25, 2017 by Real McCoy

[LABILLBACKER]

This season is over. We'll beat the Colts and Fins at home wrapping up another worthless 7-9 season. Probably out of the top 10 for the draft. The good news is I feel we will blow out the remaining players from the Marrone/Ryan era.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Ask me again in a few weeks. 

 

I can tell you something then with more certainty

or 

 I’d have to tell you a lie now.  

Edited November 25, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[vincec]

23 hours ago, Real McCoy said:

Where the Sabres come from? Apples and Oranges there with a BS lottery draft system.

 

The list was to show the obvious of getting a QB and then building around him.  Would Bill Polian of been as successful if GM McGroder did not draft Kelly in 1983 or Bledsoe drafting Bruce and Reed in 1985? I for one doubt it.

 

The list is to prove you draft your franchise QB and build around him, not the other way around.

There's no one way to build. The Seahawks built their team and then got Russell Wilson. Same with the Patriots when they inserted Brady or the Broncos when they grabbed Manning. There are numerous other examples.

 

The Sabres and Browns are cautionary tales to anyone who thinks that there is "zero reason to win another game" (as you posted) if they can't make the playoffs because it lowers their draft pick. Winning is a culture and a habit. You don't built it by tanking. Losing is easy and accepting losing turns you into the Browns or Sabres.

Edited November 25, 2017 by vincec

[Real McClappy]

16 minutes ago, vincec said:

There's no one way to build. The Seahawks built their team and then got Russell Wilson. Same with the Patriots when they inserted Brady or the Broncos when they grabbed Manning. There are numerous other examples.

 

The Sabres and Browns are cautionary tales to anyone who thinks that there is "zero reason to win another game" (as you posted) if they can't make the playoffs because it lowers their draft pick. Winning is a culture and a habit. You don't built it by tanking. Losing is easy and accepting losing turns you into the Browns or Sabres.

Don't misquote me as I said if we do not go 4-2 with the remaining 6 games there is zero reason to win another game as it's hurts the Bills further. With the way we are playing now I see maybe 2 more wins this year. What will those 2 wins do for us other than hurt the us like 7-9 records have done in the past? 

Sure you can pull in 2 of the greatest QB's of all time on winning Super bowls as it only strengthens my point that you needs to have a franchise QB to win one. In order to get there or win one we have to draft one very early. a 7-9 record lands you JP Losman over Eli, Ben or Rivers. Your idea of 7-9 or 8-8 is flawed and history has proven it for almost 20 years now.

[vincec]

8 minutes ago, Real McCoy said:

Don't misquote me as I said if we do not go 4-2 with the remaining 6 games there is zero reason to win another game as it's hurts the Bills further. With the way we are playing now I see maybe 2 more wins this year. What will those 2 wins do for us other than hurt the us like 7-9 records have done in the past? 

Sure you can pull in 2 of the greatest QB's of all time on winning Super bowls as it only strengthens my point that you needs to have a franchise QB to win one. In order to get there or win one we have to draft one very early. a 7-9 record lands you JP Losman over Eli, Ben or Rivers. Your idea of 7-9 or 8-8 is flawed and history has proven it for almost 20 years now.

I didn't misquote you. You are saying that the Bills should lose out if they can't win enough games to make the playoffs. I think that's a bad way to build a winning culture, which is really how you build a championship team. If you think that saying the exact opposite of what you said strengthens your argument then I don't know what to say, but carry on.

[Real McClappy]

1 hour ago, vincec said:

I didn't misquote you. You are saying that the Bills should lose out if they can't win enough games to make the playoffs. I think that's a bad way to build a winning culture, which is really how you build a championship team. If you think that saying the exact opposite of what you said strengthens your argument then I don't know what to say, but carry on.

Tomorrow will tell all with this club. If we get our asses handed to us, do you think we can possibly go 4-1? If the answer is no like I think it is, what is the point of winning another game? You say "building a winning culture and how you build a championship team? We will disagree here until the end of time.

 

Do you know what 12/3/03 was? It was the day the Bills lost drafting Big Ben due to a pointless win against the Jets to bring us a 6-10 record. Instead of drafting at pick #8 we landed 13th and Pitts had 11th due to tie breaker crap.  I'm pretty sure everyone here knows the Bills tried desperately to jump ahead of Pitts and simply could not. Instead we took Lee Evans with that 13th pick and traded back into the first for friggin Losman.  So yeah, that extra win against the Jets sure built a "winning culture" back in 2003 and beyond.

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by Real McCoy

[BringBackOrton]

5 hours ago, vincec said:

There's no one way to build. The Seahawks built their team and then got Russell Wilson. Same with the Patriots when they inserted Brady or the Broncos when they grabbed Manning. There are numerous other examples.

 

The Sabres and Browns are cautionary tales to anyone who thinks that there is "zero reason to win another game" (as you posted) if they can't make the playoffs because it lowers their draft pick. Winning is a culture and a habit. You don't built it by tanking. Losing is easy and accepting losing turns you into the Browns or Sabres.

The Jags were perennial basement dwellers and now look at them.

 

The Seahawks built their core talent like every other good team. Hit on some later picks who turn out to be franchise-tier players. Sherman, Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, Brady etc etc.

[dulles]

On 11/23/2017 at 1:41 PM, Real McCoy said:

Spot on, boom or bust!

If the Bills can't go 4-2 from here out there is zero reason to win another game as it just hurts us like it has so many years prior.

Some people forget but the way the late 80's and 90's team were built came from from these poor records

 

1982 4-5 (NFL strike year) = 83 draft - Jim Kelly and Daryl Talley

1983 8-8 = 84 draft - BLAH! - Greg Bell

1984  2-14 = 85 draft - Bruce and Reed

1985 2-14 = 86 draft - Will Wolford

1986 4-12 = 87 draft - Colan, Odoms, House

1987  7-8 (NFL strike year) = 88 draft - Thurman Thomas

 

6 year span 27-61 record

 

1988 up - Magic began to happen

 

 

The most startling thing about those seasons is not the Bills record, but the TWO strikes!
Maybe Roger has earned a raise from the owners.  Keeping the gravy train rollin' appears to be pretty important!

[MAJBobby]

 Prediction looks pretty good

[vincec]

11 hours ago, jmc12290 said:

The Jags were perennial basement dwellers and now look at them.

 

The Seahawks built their core talent like every other good team. Hit on some later picks who turn out to be franchise-tier players. Sherman, Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, Brady etc etc.

Exactly. The Jags don't even have a good QB and they are 7-3 and playoff bound. There is no one way.

[cba fan]

On ‎11‎/‎23‎/‎2017 at 8:44 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

That sounds like the 7-year plan post a couple weeks ago.

Actually, the USFL folding didn't have much to do with it; without drafting Kelly the Bills wouldn't have had his rights, so I'm not sure why that matters. And several years of high draft picks were pivotal in building a very strong core of young players, something that we don't have now unless T. White all by himself counts as a "core." Maybe we should nickname him "Core"

You make an excellent point. By Kelly going to USFL he developed better and was not subject to the pounding he would have received with the bad Bills teams at the time. Bills also bottomed out record wise and so had high draft picks to get the Super Bowl players.

 

Luck man. You can't generate your own like that.

[BringBackOrton]

48 minutes ago, vincec said:

Exactly. The Jags don't even have a good QB and they are 7-3 and playoff bound. There is no one way.

That's because they lost a lot and built one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.  A franchise QB on that team would go undefeated.

 

They wouldn't be where they are without tanking

[PABillsfan23]

54 minutes ago, vincec said:

Exactly. The Jags don't even have a good QB and they are 7-3 and playoff bound. There is no one way.

Rarely does this happen.. it’s not the norm by any means.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

That's because they lost a lot and built one of the most talented rosters in the NFL.  A franchise QB on that team would go undefeated.

 

They wouldn't be where they are without tanking

Campbell was a very nice free agent addition too.

 

Well run teams can get back to the playoffs without sucking for 5-10 years. But since we are not one of those we should probably try the route that teams like Detroit, LA Rams and Jacksonville have taken. Then again we might just end up being like the Browns and never make the playoffs despite all the sucking.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Campbell was a very nice free agent addition too.

 

Well run teams can get back to the playoffs without sucking for 5-10 years. But since we are not one of those we should probably try the route that teams like Detroit, LA Rams and Jacksonville have taken. Then again we might just end up being like the Browns and never make the playoffs despite all the sucking.

 

 

Detroit?    They tanked 10 years ago to get Stafford and are still a .500 type team.

 

Jax has been in the basement for a long time but they have spent tons in FA in recent years and face serious cap issues in the very near future.

 

As do the LA Rams........who didn't tank to get Goff.......they traded up to get him.......then took a brief step back from 5 years of mediocrity to develop Goff.........then fired the regime that drafted him.......and hired an offensive minded HC and loaded up in FA to support Goff.    

 

If the Rams are an example it's that regime continuity only matters if the coaches and GM are worth keeping.   After an eternity with Fisher they've turned it around in 1 year with a new coach.

[OCinBuffalo]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I'm not quoting BADO....the board seems broken: I'm just trying to add a new post....to my illustrious thread...which is:

 

So, 5-11 predictors....how's that working out?

 

Clowns! Rather than quoting myself, I'll just say: when you play at a D1 level or above, you know that things can swing, HUGE, from one game to the next. You can ask every Bills player, but, it's doubtful you'll find a definitive answer as to why we ran/stopped the run so well this game, as opposed to the last 3.

Edited November 26, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[stinky finger]

16 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

I'm not quoting BADO....the board seems broken: I'm just trying to add a new post....to my illustrious thread...which is:

 

So, 5-11 predictors....how's that working out?

 

Clowns! Rather than quoting myself, I'll just say: when you play at a D1 level or above, you know that things can swing, HUGE, from one game to the next. You can ask every Bills player, but, it's doubtful you'll find a definitive answer as to why we ran/stopped the run so well this game, as opposed to the last 3.

I'm quite sure some here will give definitive answers. 

[Real McClappy]

17 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

I'm not quoting BADO....the board seems broken: I'm just trying to add a new post....to my illustrious thread...which is:

 

So, 5-11 predictors....how's that working out?

 

Clowns! Rather than quoting myself, I'll just say: when you play at a D1 level or above, you know that things can swing, HUGE, from one game to the next. You can ask every Bills player, but, it's doubtful you'll find a definitive answer as to why we ran/stopped the run so well this game, as opposed to the last 3.

 

[OCinBuffalo]

On 11/23/2017 at 12:55 PM, cba fan said:

You make no sense.

 

Bills can't stop the run or run on most teams now.

 

They will be lucky to win one more game so 5 win season is a very distinct possibility. Prognosticating 4 wins and team ending with 5 is right on the money.

"right on the money"

 

Which...

Is exactly why I have been taking big $$$ off you, and people like you, for decades. People like you bet against all probability...for reasons passing all understanding. This is like watching some loser in Atlantic City pot-commit himself with a 2 and a 7 in his hand. Once again: IF you don't understand probability, you should never gamble, ever.

 

So now, without any "luck" you are already wrong. I'll lay $10k on the Bills getting 1(one) more, non-lucky, win this season, and, I'll give you 3-1 odds. But, I'm sorry: you don't have $10k to gamble, do you? I do: because it's 10k of other people's money that I have taken from them. Thus, I have the $$$ to put where my mouth is. And you have....?

Edited November 26, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[BringBackOrton]

2 minutes ago, OCinBuffalo said:

"right on the money"

 

Which...

Is exactly why I have been taking big $$$ off you, and people like you, for decades. People like you bet against all probability...for reasons passing all understanding. This is like watching some loser in Atlantic City pot-commit himself with a 2 and a 7 in his hand. Once again: IF you don't understand probability, you should never gamble, ever.

 

So now, without any "luck" you are already wrong. I'll lay $10k on the Bills getting 1(one) more, non-lucky, win this season, and, I'll give you 3-1 odds. But, I'm sorry: you don't have $10k to gamble, do you? I do. Thus, I have the $$$ to put where my mouth is. And you have....?

I'm pretty sure you haven't posted here in the last 2 weeks.  Way to put the money where your mouth is, clown.

[OCinBuffalo]

2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

I'm pretty sure you haven't posted here in the last 2 weeks.  Way to put the money where your mouth is, clown.

And you'd be wrong.

 

Check the history, clown. 

 

I replied to this thread, one page ago.. 

 

EDIT: ****....I should have bet you. But, I guess after a big Bills win...I'm less inclined to relieve suckers from their $$$$

Edited November 26, 2017 by OCinBuffalo

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

And you'd be wrong.

 

Check the history, clown. 

 

I replied to this thread, one page ago.. 

Ohhh so you only disappeared for 10 days and two Bills losses in blowouts.

 

You got me.

Edited November 26, 2017 by jmc12290

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

Ohhh so you only disappeared for 10 days and two Bills losses in blowouts.

 

You got me.

Ohhh so you talked smack....

 

and now you're trying to play it off? I didn't resurrect this thread. I replied to it's resurrection. 

 

And, I was right, for like the 500th time on this board, all time. You can step off, because you're never gonna talk your way out.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Ohhh so you talked smack....

 

and now you're trying to play it off? I didn't resurrect this thread. I replied to it's resurrection. 

 

And, I was right, for like the 500th time on this board, all time. You can step off, because you're never gonna talk your way out.

But can you tell me if you've ever played at a D1 level?

[OCinBuffalo]

Just now, jmc12290 said:

But can you tell me if you've ever played at a D1 level?

I already did.

 

Can you tell me how you can't manage to read the previous page of a thread before posting?

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

I already did.

 

Can you tell me how you can't manage to read the previous page of a thread before posting?

Are you sure?  Maybe throw it out there another time, just in case.  

[OCinBuffalo]

1 minute ago, jmc12290 said:

Are you sure?  Maybe throw it out there another time, just in case.  

Yeah. This is where I have a choice: you've already been done. You have nowhere to go. I can keep crushing you, or, I can go to the bar.

 

I choose bar, because unlike in other situations: you're not going to learn anything from me continuing this discussion. I was never going to learn anything from you: thus it's pointless.

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, OCinBuffalo said:

Yeah. This is where I have a choice: you've already been done. You have nowhere to go. I can keep crushing you, or, I can go to the bar.

 

I choose bar, because unlike in other situations: you're not going to learn anything from me continuing this discussion. I was never going to learn anything from you: thus it's pointless.

You shouldn't drink when you're angry.  Didn't you learn anything as a former D1 athlete? 

[Koko78]

On 10/30/2017 at 6:07 AM, T-Bomb said:

I said 5 win team, I'm not wrong yet.

 

You are now.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

its getting fuzzier today 

[T-Bomb]

14 hours ago, Koko78 said:

 

You are now.

 

Yep, lasted until week 12, not bad.

 

 

[OCinBuffalo]

Just so I don't get accused of de facto....

 

I ask you now: where are the 4-12 predictors going to be, if the Bills DOUBLE their "predicted" win total? (See: 8 wins)

 

As I've said since MAY 2016....the "predictors based on 'math'" people are in a lot of trouble. Look at the words above my avatar: ask yourself, where is their credibility, and why should we believe people who utterly failed at predictive political modeling, about sports propensity?

 

See, clowns, this entire thread has been an effort to attract and confront those who are analytically ignorant. Anyone calling me arrogant? You are merely staring into the ignorant mirror: and it's confusing you. At this point the highest propensity the Bills have is 8-8....which...is the bell curve approach I referred to pages ago, when the Bills were 5-5. This is not arrogance: it's math. You don't get to call me arrogant for educating you on the tenets of statistics.

 

And finally: This is a subset of what I do, but, it's one of my more important skill sets. If we were talking about plumbing, I wouldn't call a plumber speaking directly about why he chose to sweat pipe here/make a joint/place a valve, arrogant. I'd say he was doing his job, then explaining it.

 

That's what I am doing...then explaining it.  You were ignorant before you posted. All I have done is merely try to give you a sense of how one correctly goes about creating a predictive model.

 

EDIT: Well, lets cut the crap. I've been a homer Bills fan who has delighted in crushing the "realists" this season. But, as we've seen the last 24 months, and are absolutely guaranteed to see over the next 12? The "realists' are actually delusional. Events have overtaken their claims, in life, in general. I would spend more time in Elmwood Village confronting the "realists", about all sorts of things, like the stock market, the GDP, the Bills record, etc., ...but...I can do more good ignoring them and continuing my daily activities in the real world...that the "realists" deny. Hey, that's why I don't post as much anymore.

Edited December 15, 2017 by OCinBuffalo