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Getting the top pick in 2018 ?


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"scouts were buzzing".... ahhhh lets trade assets next year and give up an elite player at pick 10 because this season doesn't matter. Scouts. Buzzing.

I have no issues going into 2018 with a favorite cfb QB to watch but a lot can change before now and then. This particular QB has played 9 games. He didn't even win the job at USC last year until Max Brown got benched. I think he looks good so far but you can't guarantee he will continue to improve, stay healthy and declare. Bottom line is I wouldn't compromise anything for this season for the purpose of trying to get this or any QB next year, at this stage. If it turns out one if worth trading up for at that point, then you make that call. I'm not convinced of that with any of them yet. Imo.

Edited by YoloinOhio
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Scouts were once buzzing about some dude named Jay Clocker too but I don't even think he got drafted.

Jevan Snead from Ole Miss went from potential overall #1 to undrafted. Too many variables to be able to predict the worst team and the best QB today.

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i just don't see any scenario where we can get the first pick. our guy is a life long coach, who just got his first head coaching job. his strength is supposed to be attention to detail. i think the team may be, overall, a bit more focused this year. even with losses, injuries, and a tough schedule, i expect this team to do at least as well as they did last year, and if things go right, we may be "in the hunt" through thanksgiving. and if there is a qb that is worth the first pick in the draft next year, i cannot see how anyone would ever trade out of that spot.

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Okay let's start from the premise that Darnold is the guy. I haven't evaluated him at all yet but I have seen a couple of respected vices, including the PFF guy (and of course our own Blokes), say in recent weeks that people should hold their horses on declaring him the next Andrew Luck consensus #1 QB. But if I start from your premise that Darnold IS the guy....

 

Then I think in order from your strategy to work you better be able to predict who is going to be the worst team in the NFL in 2017. Maybe it is Cleveland again (if it is them I guess that's a non-starter they have shown they are about accumulating picks almost to the detriment of spending them on quality players), maybe it is San Fran (though I'd expect Shanahan to be able to find a way to 6 or 7 wins even with Brian Hoyer.... he has done it before, maybe it is Chicago (if they don't go QB it well could be them). The Bears are the ones there who might most go for your offer because I think that Pace and Fox are beginning to feel the heat and need improvement now. But maybe it is someone else? How many years have we seen a totally unexpected team start slow and the basically mail it in? Indy the Manning neck year and Houston in Kubiak's last season there spring to mind. You couldn't have predicted either of those ending up #1 overall.

 

If you don't predict that correctly and we have accepted the premise that Darnold is the guy then you are not finding any team willing to give up the chance to select him at #1 overall just for 2 first round picks. In 2015 when Winston and Mariota were there (closest to Luck since he came out) the rumour is a team - probably Philly - offered 2 firsts, 2 seconds and a couple of late round picks to move up to #2 and Tennessee turned it down. If you are saying Darnold will be higher consensus than those 2 guys then I don't think having say the #4 overall pick in 2018 and the #12 pick in 2018 would tempt a team.

 

worst case scenario we accumulate more picks and two firsts next year, Maybe one of these other QBs is good too and we can trade up for them. One thing is for sure, until we get an elite QB we are going nowhere.

I am always a fan of acquiring more picks as a rule of thumb. Drafted players are cheaper than FA to fill your holes and more likely to re-sign with your team at a lower rate than a FA when their rookie deals expire. The best franchises out there fill their rosters with drafted players who contribute all throughout the roster. However, your plan just has too many variables in it to be the reason I'm trading for future picks. First, Darnold has to improve on his stellar performance this year. That is saying a lot. It is not enough for a college QB to maintain their levels of play, they have to show progression too IMO, which will be hard to do after such a great season. It's very possible he regresses this season and is not the sure fire pick some believe he is at this time.

 

Second, you have to depend on that team you traded to not turning it around this year. It happens every year. A team that is not expected to do anything suddenly clicks and they make a run. The Panthers in 2015 come to mind off a terrible 2014. Granted, usually that jump comes with a capable QB leading the squad, but you never know who is going to do it. So, if we make that trade and the team ends up being a playoff team, where does that leave us? It is very possible that teams pick next year is worse than our 10th this year.

 

If we are trading down I want to get multiple picks for this years draft since you know what you are getting or trading a round up for next years draft (a 3rd this year for 2nd next year) to guarantee you win value wise. Especially when dealing with first round picks, one for one (with another 2nd or 3rd thrown in) is just too risky for my liking.

 

I would like multiple picks too, I just went low so I wasn't accused of being outrageous with my trade desires.

 

You never know how a player will do from one year to the next but I have a feeling Darnold will. All his teammates said how special he is, how hard he worked and what a great leader he is.

"scouts were buzzing".... ahhhh lets trade assets next year and give up an elite player at pick 10 because this season doesn't matter. Scouts. Buzzing.

I have no issues going into 2018 with a favorite cfb QB to watch but a lot can change before now and then. This particular QB has played 9 games. He didn't even win the job at USC last year until Max Brown got benched. I think he looks good so far but you can't guarantee he will continue to improve, stay healthy and declare. Bottom line is I wouldn't compromise anything for this season for the purpose of trying to get this or any QB next year, at this stage. If it turns out one if worth trading up for at that point, then you make that call. I'm not convinced of that with any of them yet. Imo.

 

you're trying too hard Yolo. Brown started because he was a senior and had talent but it was clear from his performance and how well Darnold, who was a redshirt freshman, was doing in practice that the decision to start him was a no brainer.

 

we couldn't guarantee Luck would be good either but most knew he would and most feel the same about Darnold. We missed out last time we need to do everything possible to get him if has another good year.

To clarify, I do prefer to to trade down in this draft depending on who is still there at 10. But to acquire more picks for this year, in particular an extra 2nd and either a 3rd or recoup our 4th.

 

we will be getting extra picks this year ... and next year, win win.

19-0 Baby. No tanking

 

if we draft Kelly you just might be right :D

Put all your eggs in one basket? Brilliant

 

what is your solution?? stick with a QB that the franchise doesn't believe in? draft clearly inferior QBs this year? How is this putting all eggs in one basket, we still have QBs on the roster?

i just don't see any scenario where we can get the first pick. our guy is a life long coach, who just got his first head coaching job. his strength is supposed to be attention to detail. i think the team may be, overall, a bit more focused this year. even with losses, injuries, and a tough schedule, i expect this team to do at least as well as they did last year, and if things go right, we may be "in the hunt" through thanksgiving. and if there is a qb that is worth the first pick in the draft next year, i cannot see how anyone would ever trade out of that spot.

 

because we are trading this yr for next yrs first, just like the Patriots have done multiple times.

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Wouldn't mind the trade back if we pick up value.

 

But if Darnold is as good you hope and think, the team that gets the first pick won't trade it. They'll have a need for a QB and if he's that good, they'll take him.

 

Don't know if you remember this, but we were awful two years before Luck came out. He made the decision to stay in school and plenty of people were happy because they said we'd have a chance at him the next year. Surprise, the Colts didn't want to trade away the Luck pick even though they had Peyton. That's the way it works. People will sometimes trade away high picks if the value is high enough. But not when a Luck or a Peyton is available. If Darnold is all that good, the team with a shot at him will draft him.

Edited by Thurman#1
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Wouldn't mind the trade back if we pick up value.

 

But if Darnold is as good you hope and think, the team that gets the first pick won't trade it. They'll have a need for a QB and if he's that good, they'll take him.

 

Don't know if you remember this, but we were awful two years before Luck came out. He made the decision to stay in school and plenty of people were happy because they said we'd have a chance at him the next year. Surprise, the Colts didn't want to trade away the Luck pick even though they had Peyton. That's the way it works. People will sometimes trade away high picks if the value is high enough. But not when a Luck or a Peyton is available. If Darnold is all that good, the team with a shot at him will draft him.

 

IF WE TRADE THIS YRS FOR NEXT THEN WE CAN GET THE TOP PICK. This what this whole thread is based on.

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This IS NOT A TANKING THREAD.

 

I have been in favor of a partial tank meaning gut the offense and focus on defense, which would have given us a poor record while maintaining a competitive team and hopefully the top pick in 2018.

 

However, with the signing of TT and other offensive additions we are looking at another 8-8 year. I LOVE the Sean McDermott hire but with a new coach and vastly different Offensive and Defensive systems from Wrecks it will take a lot to even have a average season this yr.

 

I feel that Sam Darnold is the best QB to come out since Luck and we should do whatever it takes to get him. Now if he does as good next yr no team would be willing to give up that pick next year. However Teams like to have assets now and are willing to give up picks for the future, so trading with a team we think will be the worst THIS year, like San Fran or Cleveland, can get us their top pick in 2018 while giving up something this yr.

 

Therefore I would trade this yrs number one for a second or third AND that teams next yr first round pick.

 

Now it's possible we don't get the top pick but with two first round picks this would give us the opportunity to move up to number one and then trade more picks if need be to acquire it IF Sam plays worthily.

 

Now everyone will decry that we will be losing our first this year, but are we going to get a game changer at 10 this year ?? Perhaps but this is a deep draft and with an extra 2 or 3 there's a good possibility that we can get a great player in the second as we would have in the first. A stud LB or DL would be nice in the first but until we get a Elite QB we will never be a contender in this league and I believe Darnold will be that guy.

The issue is Sam might not come out after this year as he's still has three years of college eligibility so he could do a Luck/Manning thing and just stay in school to develop his skills.

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IF WE TRADE THIS YRS FOR NEXT THEN WE CAN GET THE TOP PICK.

 

Only if we guess correctly as to who might be the worst team and they are willing to do the deal. As I say of the three worst teams from 2016 I think the Bears might be the best shot, both to be bad and be willing.

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I love the notion of your idea

The problem is you need alot of extra draft picks to be able to afford to make that deal

Specifically 2018 and 2019 draft picks

So first off our Bills have to stop trading picks away for WR's, RB's, and LB's

And instead starts acquiring extra draft picks

And we could use those 2 comps mgmt and very few people on message boards care about

Because those extra 3rd and 4th 2018 we're not getting would really help acquire that top pick

If you ever meet the Bills braintrust you should spell it out for em

 

jc

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Because those extra 3rd and 4th 2018 we're not getting would really help acquire that top pick

If you ever meet the Bills braintrust you should spell it out for em

 

jc

Let's see how many of the dumpster dives end up on the roster come September before we conclude that. It won't be all of them I am willing to bet that much.

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"scouts were buzzing".... ahhhh lets trade assets next year and give up an elite player at pick 10 because this season doesn't matter. Scouts. Buzzing.

I have no issues going into 2018 with a favorite cfb QB to watch but a lot can change before now and then. This particular QB has played 9 games. He didn't even win the job at USC last year until Max Brown got benched. I think he looks good so far but you can't guarantee he will continue to improve, stay healthy and declare. Bottom line is I wouldn't compromise anything for this season for the purpose of trying to get this or any QB next year, at this stage. If it turns out one if worth trading up for at that point, then you make that call. I'm not convinced of that with any of them yet. Imo.

 

Hmm, I've seen USC QB's praised as the seconding coming in QB terms then fall off the following season but all the experts figure Darnold will be a can't miss. I, myself, think it's 50/50 where he can regress and not be the guy whoever think he will be. Matt Barkley comes to mind, everyone was high on him until he stayed one more year and his stock went way down.

Edited by Captain Murica
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