The Trump Economy

[GG]

18 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

 

 

By the way, I rented Brainstorm last night on Amazon. Christopher Walken and Natalie Wood star in. If you've never seen it, check it out.

 

Did the Natalie Wood doc prompt this?

[Buffalo_Gal]

Consumer spending was up 8.2 percent in May.  It will be interesting going forward to see if March  (-6.6%) and April (-12.6%)  are "made up" or if those sales are lost forever.  Impulse buying vs need? 

[Reality Check]

3 hours ago, GG said:

 

Did the Natalie Wood doc prompt this?

No. I didn't know that there was one. 

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Consumer spending was up 8.2 percent in May.  It will be interesting going forward to see if March  (-6.6%) and April (-12.6%)  are "made up" or if those sales are lost forever.  Impulse buying vs need? 

Depends on the virus.  If states can open back up you'll see that unemployment number drop and spending should go back to pre covid levels.  The government stimulus and beefed up unemployment benefits kept most people afloat which is pry the main reason for the increase in May.  They may have to pass something similar again.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Doc Brown

[GG]

23 minutes ago, Reality Check said:

No. I didn't know that there was one. 

 

Yeah on HBO, supposed to be really good.

 

Her death was a direct aftermath of Brainstorm.  Great movie that was on heavy HBO rotation back in the day.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Depends on the virus.  If states can open back up you'll see that unemployment number drop and spending should go back to pre covid levels.  The government stimulus and beefed up unemployment benefits kept most people afloat which is pry the main reason for the increase in May.  They may have to pass something similar again.

 

...but the $600 stipend is due to expire July 31 and the House will fight to extend it.....WSJ said 50% on unemployment make more staying home than working, thus killing any impetus to return to work...Treasury Secretary said if you refuse to return to work, your $600 stipend is cancelled.....we have operations in NY, PA and NJ...the only state that has requested reporting of individuals refusing to return to work when called back is PA......Big Fredo would never ask....besides the ultra modern, technologically efficient NYS Unemployment system was exposed for using MS-DOS.....us crusty old folks remember it well....youngins'?...it was the new slideruler.........

[Reality Check]

15 minutes ago, GG said:

 

Yeah on HBO, supposed to be really good.

 

Her death was a direct aftermath of Brainstorm.  Great movie that was on heavy HBO rotation back in the day.  

The good ole days. 

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...but the $600 stipend is due to expire July 31 and the House will fight to extend it.....WSJ said 50% on unemployment make more staying home than working, thus killing any impetus to return to work...Treasury Secretary said if you refuse to return to work, your $600 stipend is cancelled.....we have operations in NY, PA and NJ...the only state that has requested reporting of individuals refusing to return to work when called back is PA......Big Fredo would never ask....besides the ultra modern, technologically efficient NYS Unemployment system was exposed for using MS-DOS.....us crusty old folks remember it well....youngins'?...it was the new slideruler.........

LOL.  When I worked for Collins/Gowanda Correctional about 10 or so years they were still using that operating system.  That's NYS for you. 

 

My sister is a waitress at the Cheesecake Factory and they're trying to lure back their workers by offering the maximum amount of hours you can work while still being able to collect the federal steroid unemployment benefits.  My guess at this point is Congress will ultimately agree to extend the federal unemployment stipend for at least three months but reduce the amount.  It all depends on the trajectory of the virus though.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

LOL.  When I worked for Collins/Gowanda Correctional about 10 or so years they were still using that operating system.  That's NYS for you. 

 

My sister is a waitress at the Cheesecake Factory and they're trying to lure back their workers by offering the maximum amount of hours you can work while still being able to collect the federal steroid unemployment benefits.  My guess at this point is Congress will ultimately agree to extend the federal unemployment stipend for at least three months but reduce the amount.  It all depends on the trajectory of the virus though.

 

.....it is political entrapment......the Dems will propose it with NO reduction, the House will pass it and if the Senate vetoes it, they're the bad guys.....political capital in HIGH unemployment numbers.......but 535 really DO care about the country......oh boy..........

[Doc Brown]

Just now, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

.....it is political entrapment......the Dems will propose it with NO reduction, the House will pass it and if the Senate vetoes it, they're the bad guys.....political capital in HIGH unemployment numbers.......but 535 really DO care about the country......oh boy..........

Congress only comes through when there's enough political pressure to reach a compromise.  Trump isn't a fiscal conservative and it's a reelection year.  As long as he has a stranglehold on the Republican party I don't see any reason Republicans in the Senate won't cave to extending federal unemployment benefits (at a reduced rate or slowly phased out) along with another round of stimulus checks.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Congress only comes through when there's enough political pressure to reach a compromise.  Trump isn't a fiscal conservative and it's a reelection year.  As long as he has a stranglehold on the Republican party I don't see any reason Republicans in the Senate won't cave to extending federal unemployment benefits (at a reduced rate or slowly phased out) along with another round of stimulus checks.  

 

 

...unfortunately when it comes to more spending and regardless of party in power, increasing national debt for the alleged "good of the country" is non-sequitor" IMO........

[TH3]

Nothing like rolling out a presser to impart some  confidence in the management and direction of the handling of the Rona......aaaannnddd the stock market tanks in real time during the whole thing .....GOOD TIMES!

[Reality Check]

1 hour ago, TH3 said:

Nothing like rolling out a presser to impart some  confidence in the management and direction of the handling of the Rona......aaaannnddd the stock market tanks in real time during the whole thing .....GOOD TIMES!

Catastrophe and opportunity have a lot in common.

[Foxx]

https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1276598418480279553

 

[Reality Check]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8466617/Critics-call-federal-income-tax-signed-Woodrow-Wilson-cancelled-Princeton-scrubbed-name.html

 

This would help the economy.

[BillStime]

 

[Hedge]

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Gal]

No one knows what is going on because nothing like this has ever happened before. ?‍♂️ 

Private sector rehires 2.37 million workers in June, ADP says
 

Small business, including leisure and hospitality,  power rebound

 

Big picture: The ADP data hasn’t lined up with the government data since the pandemic began in March, though over a longer time frame the two data sets trend in the same direction. For instance, last month ADP reported 2.76 million job losses, while the government reported net gains of 3.1 million jobs. On Wednesday, ADP revised its May decline to show a gain of 3.1 million jobs.
 

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a gain of 3.9 million jobs in June, with the unemployment rate improving, slightly to 13% from 13.3% in May. There is some concern that June could be a high-water mark as many states were slowing down activity late in the month due to a resurgence in coronavirus cases.
 

Overall, economists are struggling to understand trends in the job market. Suffice to say it remains weak. Even if there is a gain of 4 million payroll jobs in June, the level of employment will be over 16.5 million below its recent peak. Low-paying service sector jobs were decimated by the pandemic.
 

</snip>

 

[RochesterRob]

39 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

No one knows what is going on because nothing like this has ever happened before. ?‍♂️ 

Private sector rehires 2.37 million workers in June, ADP says
 

Small business, including leisure and hospitality,  power rebound

 

Big picture: The ADP data hasn’t lined up with the government data since the pandemic began in March, though over a longer time frame the two data sets trend in the same direction. For instance, last month ADP reported 2.76 million job losses, while the government reported net gains of 3.1 million jobs. On Wednesday, ADP revised its May decline to show a gain of 3.1 million jobs.
 

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a gain of 3.9 million jobs in June, with the unemployment rate improving, slightly to 13% from 13.3% in May. There is some concern that June could be a high-water mark as many states were slowing down activity late in the month due to a resurgence in coronavirus cases.
 

Overall, economists are struggling to understand trends in the job market. Suffice to say it remains weak. Even if there is a gain of 4 million payroll jobs in June, the level of employment will be over 16.5 million below its recent peak. Low-paying service sector jobs were decimated by the pandemic.
 

</snip>

 

  As I have said before businesses are going to put up all the fight they can muster hence the rehiring.  Whether they can over come what was lost during the previous few months is yet to be seen.  Restaurants can not survive on reduced seating/sales for very long.  There is strain on the system.  I think we will see the real picture of what the impact of the shutdown was in another 15-18 months.  Enjoy the good news but be prepared for the shockwaves.  Places such as Del Lago Casino still have not reopened and employ nearly 1700 in a county that has around 35,000 people total.  A county such as Genesee is very dependent on what happens with Darien Lake which is late to open.  Many of our friends, neighbors, and relatives are struggling in WNY because of the shutdown.  The largest sales tax revenue generator in Ontario County which is Eastview Mall has sat idle for 3 1/2 months now with no date set to reopen.  

Edited July 1, 2020 by RochesterRob

[ComradeKayAdams]

On 6/26/2020 at 9:59 AM, Reality Check said:

Ideologically, I think we have very similar hopes for our Republic, and what it could be to the generations yet to be born.

 

Wait, you sure you wanna be ideologically associated with me in any way? Remember I’m the forum’s resident Green New Deal chica…

 

I like your optimism for the U.S. economy, and in many ways I can understand it. Normally I’m not big into braggadocious American exceptionalism talk, but the evidence is strongly in favor of our country being the best in terms of work ethic (per capita GDP, longstanding Protestant work ethic reputation, etc.) and ingenuity (Silicon Valley, scientific research output, Hollywood, music industry, etc.). So I’m very bullish on the American people. It’s also true that all the other economic players around the world each have their own set of massive internal issues, including China and the EU. What I’m very bearish on, however, are practically all of our country’s institutions of power as well as the partisan bickering that makes it difficult for us to solve even the simplest of problems, like funding a police department. This stuff will hinder the U.S. from becoming the best economic version of itself.

 

We do share the same long-term economic vision that is centered on extreme high-tech. Future economic superpowers will be those who can take advantage of space. Martian and lunar colonies are the eventual goals, but more immediately we can focus on fully automated space mining of our moon, Mars, the asteroid belt, and the 200+ moons of the other planets in our solar system. This would blow away China’s monopoly of rare earth metals, for example. Typical luddites fixate on all the big technological challenges or on difficult psychological questions that come with humans in space for extended periods of time. I see America’s historically optimistic disposition as uniquely suited to tackle these issues. I think government has a necessary role to play in expanding into outer space, even if it’s more of a pure funding role while private companies like SpaceX compete for these funds and manage the operations (rendering entities like NASA obsolete). I also like your helium comment. This is such an underrated and rare natural resource (its weight and chemical inertness allow it to easily and quite literally vanish into thin air). There could be huge unknown reservoirs of it on Mars, too.

 

Thank you for the Brainstorm recommendation. I tend to find old movies more entertaining than new ones. Here’s a recommendation of mine that I believe is very relevant to the thread topic: John Carpenter’s “They Live” (1988), a cinematic MASTERPIECE starring the LEGENDARY film actor, Rowdy Roddy Piper. “I have come to chew bubblegum and kick a$$…and I’m all out of bubblegum.” So Shakespearian!!

 

On 6/26/2020 at 2:32 PM, Doc Brown said:

Depends on the virus.  If states can open back up you'll see that unemployment number drop and spending should go back to pre covid levels.  The government stimulus and beefed up unemployment benefits kept most people afloat which is pry the main reason for the increase in May.  They may have to pass something similar again.

 

At this point, does anyone NOT believe the virus will be lingering with us throughout the summer and fall? The smart and safe solution is to stay focused on navigating out of the current economic crisis. Pass some combination of legislation for continued small business payroll protection, temporary M4A (not just for Covid-19) to protect the unemployed, rent/mortgage/student loan/credit card deferments, and at bare minimum another round of stimulus checks of at least $1200. Deficit hawks had most of the past two decades to challenge Bush, Obama, and Trump on this subject. They failed horribly. Prioritize this issue next year. It’s an important issue, but not the most important in 2020.

 

On 6/26/2020 at 2:42 PM, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

...but the $600 stipend is due to expire July 31 and the House will fight to extend it.....WSJ said 50% on unemployment make more staying home than working, thus killing any impetus to return to work...Treasury Secretary said if you refuse to return to work, your $600 stipend is cancelled.....we have operations in NY, PA and NJ...the only state that has requested reporting of individuals refusing to return to work when called back is PA......Big Fredo would never ask....besides the ultra modern, technologically efficient NYS Unemployment system was exposed for using MS-DOS.....us crusty old folks remember it well....youngins'?...it was the new slideruler.........

 

MS-DOS? Was that an earlier version of the infamous Central American crime gang?

 

So let’s think about those 50% who make more with unemployment benefits than by returning to work. Are some of them lazy government freeloaders ready to take advantage of a technicality? Maybe. I see this laziness trope come up a lot in political news commentary. But what about their motivation to secure employment-based health care in the midst of a pandemic for themselves and their families? What about their desire to secure a job or get their old job back before losing a game of economic musical chairs? What about their urge to return to a sense of normalcy and to restore a sense of purpose in their daily lives?

 

A large portion of the recently unemployed are relatively low-wage service industry workers who may be afraid of getting the virus by going back to work and passing it along to loved ones in high-risk health categories. Many families also can’t afford day care, so the parents may need to prioritize staying at home with their kids right now. Some may even be using the extra time off to develop new work skills instead of catching up on all their favorite TV shows. And of course, many are still honestly looking but can’t find employment or anything that meets their reasonable criteria (hours, location, etc.).

 

We shouldn’t automatically attribute the worst motives to such a large percentage of our fellow Americans. I personally can’t partake in callously ridiculing other people as lazy for not willingly toiling at often unfulfilling dead-end jobs, with often grossly substandard pay, in potentially unsafe and germ-friendly working conditions. Actually, I can’t think of a more damning indictment of modern America’s particular form of capitalism than the imagery of professional/managerial class types, with the benefit of being able to work from home during this Covid-19 pandemic, chastising front-line essential worker types about not getting back to work for their financial wheel-spinning crumbs (ooooh my inner Marxist is showing! I forgot I’m on PPP. I should cover up…).

 

On 6/26/2020 at 5:58 PM, Foxx said:

https://twitter.com/LizRNC/status/1276598418480279553

 

Wait so do the Larry Kudlows of the administration give President Trump the bad economic news too? Or is that it? Everything looks good right now and nothing looks bad? Are the large weekly numbers of new unemployment claims that keep rolling in merely mirages? What about those surveys taken that show many small businesses never coming back? Or recent reports of all the states and cities facing budgetary crises due to lost tax revenue from the Covid-19 shutdown? I could go on like this. Larry only lists recovery statistics that don’t really tell us much of anything this early in time, aside from the fact that economic activity immediately jumped following an unprecedented pandemic shutdown. And then Larry magically projects these trends all the way into next year, blithely ignoring any of the many other future economic factors in play.

 

Maybe this was just a 1-minute highlight clip that left out a full and more balanced economic report, but Larry does have a reputation for over-the-top supply-side positivity bias and a major blind spot for how working-class consumption impacts macroeconomic activity. If Trump wants to surround himself with “yes” men unwilling to provide full information needed to make smart decisions, well then I guess it’s his own legacy and re-election at stake. If I was at that table, I would not have allowed Trump to get complacent with the gravity of the economic situation. If I was in the room, I would have also pressed Mr. Kudlow on why they won’t reveal the names of the small businesses receiving PPP loans. Or why the American people aren’t allowed any transparency in how big businesses from the CARES Act are maintaining payroll (Boeing?!) and becoming eligible for future bailout rounds. Or what Larry means by more deregulation as a key solution, which in his world would include a rollback of everything Wall Street was supposed to have learned from the Great Recession.