WEEK 8 - ALL 22 OLINE/ QB UNFORCED ERROR REVIEW

[Bocephuz]

Unforced errors.. bad throws/ How did the O Line do?/ What mistakes are on the O-Line.. what ones are not?

I watched the NFL rewind all 22 and here is my unofficial count of how the O-Line did /
How the QB did on every pass play (I may have missed a snap or two here or there. There also may be a few extra pass attempts that were cancelled due to penalites..but this should be 95% accurate)

Sufficient protection means that TT had time to hit his drop and had at least a second to scan the field.

DISCLAIMER (I am not a coach, I don't know the hot reads or route combinations called.. this is just my educated perception of what happened on each pass play)


_______ ______________________

TOTAL PASS PLAYS: 36 - (last week was 40 for reference)

LINE BREAKDOWNS: 9/36 - or 25% of snaps ( last week was 12/40 or 30% of snaps) In other words TT didn't really have a chance on 25% of his drop backs. Based on historical data the threshold for average O Line performance has been around a 20% breakdown rate.

SUFFICIENT PROTECTION: 27/36 snaps or 75%. (last week was 70%). In other words TT had a relatively clean pocket 75% of the time

UNFORCED QB ERRORS: 6/27 snaps or 22% ( last week was 5/28 snaps or 18%) Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid. TT had 6unforced errors by my count.. so he was over the line.

Bottom Line:


1ST HALF PASS PROTECT WAS OK - Very similar to last week against the Dolphins..The O Line held up reasonably well in the 1st half. John Miller was cleanly beaten once in q1 but other than that TT had a relatively clean pocket for most of the first half. Some of this can be attributed to Pats only rushing 3 and dropping 8. However.. as the game wore on the Pats started to bring more bodies and heat toward the QB.


RICHIE STRUGGLES AGAIN - The interior of the O Line really struggled in the second half and in particular in q4. Richie Incognito had 3 plays in one q4 series in which he was either physically beaten by his man or mentally did not recognize/ pick up stunts. I'm really starting to worry about 64 .. his pass protect has been poor the last few weeks and really seems to be getting worse. Here are some examples


64 fails to recognize the Safety blitz/stunt.. does not disengage from 91 to pick up 23.. resulting in TT flushed out of pocket


.



This one may be on both Wood and Incognito.. but I think I would shift the majority of the blame on 64. #95 executes a twist stunt. Wood fails to recognize and disengage his guy to pick up #95.. and Incognito is blocking ghosts and doesn't even look to his right






In this play Richie just flat out gets physically beaten to the point of attack and #91 gets a solid hit on TT







DROPS - TT had his share of poorly thrown unforced errors. However, there were some very bad drops.. including several particularly painful ones during the 2nd series of the game. At 3:59 Q1 Charles Clay dropped a decently thrown crossing route.

On the next play .. Brandon Tate dropped a well thrown Cover 2 beater on 3rd down that killed a crucial series.

https://gfycat.com/AgitatedIndelibleDikdik


TYROD MISSES DEEP/ STRUGGLES THROWING TO RED ZONE- Not all of the blame can be put on TT for this one (O Line melted down in Q4, Receivers had bad drops) however... a fair amount of blame should go his way. His biggest misses were 2 deep balls to Powell in q3.. in both cases he didn't really give Powell a chance to catch the ball. And in both cases.. TT had a relatively clean pocket to throw from.

In this example here he just overthrows Powell and doesn't give him a chance



In this example it is thrown too far inside and short.. again.. he doesn't have a chance to make a play









SUMMARY - Last week in Miami the O Line shouldered the majority of the blame for poor passing game performance. This week the O Line played betterThey had some bad moments but generally gave TT time in most situations. Mills had a much better game (although he did give up one sack on a speed outside rush).. and Incognito really just broke down on one series toward the end of the game. Tyrod had plenty of clean pockets to throw from but for the most part his receivers either let him down.. or he let his receivers down with unforced errors. Belichick rushing 3 and dropping guys in coverage really messed up the timing routes.. however.. there were many plays to be had that just weren't executed. TT can't afford to miss on his long balls.. if he doesn't hit one per game the Bills just don't have much of a chance of winning.


After watching the All 22 I come away from this game with mixed feelings regarding Taylor. For example.. the underthrow to Clay in Q4 on the seam route was caused by pressure (which I didn't see in real time). He did have a few nice timing throws to Powell. On the other side of the coin there were some errant throws (like the one to Powell in q2 that was late, high and behind him) that looked just as bad in all 22 as they did in real time. Last week in Miami there were really only 2 ugly throws.. this week there were 4 or 5. If TT is going to continue to be conservative he can't afford to have 6 unforced errors ..essentially wasted opportunities.. in a game.



O Line Pass block grades

GLENN - B+
INCOGNITO - C-
WOOD - B-
MILLER - C
MILLS- c+



PLAYS OF NOTE

q113:25 - UNFORCED ERROR

Q112:00 - John Miller beaten to the inside by 97

q1 3:59 - Clay drops decently thrown crossing route

q1 3:54 - Tate drops beautifully thrown cover 2 beater on 3rd down killing a drive

q2 13: 55 - UNFORCED ERROR - TT is late, high and behind Powell

q2 11:10 - Gillislee misses blitz pickup, 91 hits TT resulting in seam throw to Clay

q2 3:15 - nice thrown in tight window to Powell

q2 1:21 - another nice timing route to Powell

q2 - UNFORCED ERROR - throw behind Woods

q2 - :38 - UNFORCED ERROR - another throw behind Woods

q3 14:00 - Hunter drops a hitch throw

q3 13:19 - Mills beaten to outside by Hightower resulting in sack

q3 8:09 - UNFORCED ERROR - overthrow to Powell on go route in end zone

q3 1:39 - UNFORCED ERROR - underthrown and too far inside to Powell on go route in end zone

q4 4:15 - 95 blitzes untouched.. causes underthrown seam route to Clay

q4 6:18 - Incognito misses stunt.. 23 flushes TT from pocket

q4: 5:59 - Incognito misses stunt causing pressure on TT

q4: Incognito beaten by his man and gives up hit on TT

Edited November 2, 2016 by Bocephuz

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Thank you for doing this. I enjoy reading these every week

[Bocephuz]

Thank you for doing this. I enjoy reading these every week

👍

[bobobonators]

As usual, thank you for doing this. I wasnt able to watch more than the first 5 minutes or so of the game. Seemed like the rain was affecting both the WR and the QB (at least for the Bills).

 

I think what I take from your analysis is: players need to step up all around. Plays could have been made by the offense and they werent.

[San-O]

Thank you for doing this. I enjoy reading these every week

 

+ 1

 

Thank you as well.

[Bocephuz]

As usual, thank you for doing this. I wasnt able to watch more than the first 5 minutes or so of the game. Seemed like the rain was affecting both the WR and the QB (at least for the Bills).

 

I think what I take from your analysis is: players need to step up all around. Plays could have been made by the offense and they werent.

Every unit played a part at one time or another

[Virgil]

These are awesome and I really look forward to them.

 

One question, on first and goal on the first series, I thought I saw a wide open Reggie Bush running in he flat, TT missed him and scrambled to the opposite side of the field. Are you able to confirm that.

 

It really pissed me off.

[MAJBobby]

These are awesome and I really look forward to them.

 

One question, on first and goal on the first series, I thought I saw a wide open Reggie Bush running in he flat, TT missed him and scrambled to the opposite side of the field. Are you able to confirm that.

 

It really pissed me off.

You are correct, pressure flushed him, but did have time to get.it to the RB before bailing

[Virgil]

Also, how many drops did you count? I counted 4 in the first half, but stats keep saying he only has 7 against him the whole season. I don't see how or know what they count as drops but that seems very wrong

[Heitz]

Nice breakdown per usual, FWIW, some more film breakdown of TT: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/11/2/13492850/tyrod-taylor-film-breakdown-bills-week-8

[Gugny]

Great stuff, Hank. Thanks for your efforts!

[MAJBobby]

Also, how many drops did you count? I counted 4 in the first half, but stats keep saying he only has 7 against him the whole season. I don't see how or know what they count as drops but that seems very wrong

But it is accurate because they count everything the same for every QB. So you can draw accurate comparison.

 

And one being WR drop rate does not effect Tyrod as much as alot of the other QBs in the league to include Wentz how has the highest drop rate affecting him

[Bocephuz]

Also, how many drops did you count? I counted 4 in the first half, but stats keep saying he only has 7 against him the whole season. I don't see how or know what they count as drops but that seems very wrong

There were 2 unquestionable drops.. ( Clay and Tate in Q1) I believe Powell had another unquestionable drop and Hunter dropped a hitch route( would have been tough catch but hit him in the hands). By that count it is certainly 3 and arguably 4 drops against Pats

[Bocephuz]

Nice breakdown per usual, FWIW, some more film breakdown of TT: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/2016/11/2/13492850/tyrod-taylor-film-breakdown-bills-week-8

I think Geary does a good job of breaking down the individual plays and technique but he doesn't really put things into overall context...he has a bit of an agenda and cherry picks a few plays to prove his point

[quinnearlysghost88]

Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid.

 

Do you, by any chance, know what the winning percentage is of 5 or fewer QB errors?

[Bocephuz]

Great stuff, Hank. Thanks for your efforts!

👍

[Bocephuz]

Based on my 2015 studies if you have 5 unforced QB errors or less during a game your odds of winning are solid.

 

Do you, by any chance, know what the winning percentage is of 5 or fewer QB errors?

 

Good question.. keep in mind I haven't analyzed every game .. but I have looked at 9 games from 2015-2016. The first 2 games had EJ at QB. Here are some stats

 

• The average number of QB Unforced Errors in the 4 Bills Wins in these games is 2.75/ game
• The average number of Unforced Errors in the 5 Bills Losses is 6.33 / game
• The overall average for all 9 games I reviewed of Unforced Errors is 5.88 /game
• In the two games EJ was evaluated his average is 11.5 UE/ game ( 2015 Bengals /Jaguars )
• In the 7 games for TT his average is 4.28 UE/ game
• TT's worst game was Chiefs game last year... had 8 UE and they lost

Edited November 2, 2016 by Bocephuz

[fridge]

 

Good question.. keep in mind I haven't analyzed every game .. but I have looked at 9 games from 2015-2016. The first 2 games had EJ at QB. Here are some stats

 

• The average number of QB Unforced Errors in the 4 Bills Wins in these games is 2.75/ game
• The average number of Unforced Errors in the 5 Bills Losses is 6.33 / game
• The overall average for all 9 games I reviewed of Unforced Errors is 5.88 /game
• In the two games EJ was evaluated his average is 11.5 UE/ game ( 2015 Bengals /Jaguars )
• In the 7 games for TT his average is 4.28 UE/ game
• TT's worst game was Chiefs game last year... had 8 UE and they lost

 

 

Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias.

 

I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts.

[MAJBobby]

 

Good question.. keep in mind I haven't analyzed every game .. but I have looked at 9 games from 2015-2016. The first 2 games had EJ at QB. Here are some stats

 

• The average number of QB Unforced Errors in the 4 Bills Wins in these games is 2.75/ game
• The average number of Unforced Errors in the 5 Bills Losses is 6.33 / game
• The overall average for all 9 games I reviewed of Unforced Errors is 5.88 /game
• In the two games EJ was evaluated his average is 11.5 UE/ game ( 2015 Bengals /Jaguars )
• In the 7 games for TT his average is 4.28 UE/ game
• TT's worst game was Chiefs game last year... had 8 UE and they lost

So in other words you are using TT and EJ as your study to come up with 5 unforced errors of a measure of solid chance to win

 

That is a flawed statement then because you have really no idea that number when you look at good QBs, Brady, etc etc etc could actually be closer to 1 or 2 unforced errors a game not 5.

Edited November 2, 2016 by MAJBobby

[Bocephuz]

So in other words you are using TT and EJ as your study to come up with 5 unforced errors of a measure of solid chance to win

 

That is a flawed statement then because you have really no idea that number when you look at good QBs, Brady, etc etc etc could actually be closer to 1 or 2 unforced errors a game not 5.

I don't have the time to watch every pass play of every NFL game and write up an analysis to get that data. I can only go from the data/ studies I myself have done regarding recent Bills QB play in games I've analyzed.

 

Im not claiming to make any sort of overarching statement on NFL QB play.. just trying to apply some sort of method to analyzing how much impact OLine play has on QB play for the Bills

Edited November 2, 2016 by Bocephuz

[Jauronimo]

 

 

Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias.

 

I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts.

Are you suggesting that he got it from his mama?

 

No, he hasn't.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Jauronimo

[Mr. WEO]

Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias.

 

I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts.

Hey I think your ride's here.

[Kirby Jackson]

I really look forward to these. Great stuff as always.

[MAJBobby]

I don't have the time to watch every pass play of every NFL game and write up an analysis to get that data. I can only go from the data/ studies I myself have done regarding recent Bills QB play in games I've analyzed.

 

Im not claiming to make any sort of overarching statement on NFL QB play.. just trying to apply some sort of method to analyzing how much impact OLine play has on QB play for the Bills

I completely understand. I am just saying it is hard to really come up with that comparative number when we really only look at the Bills QBs and the Bills OL.

 

If anything it can be used as a comparison or growth of regression compared to last year is all i am saying. Not dumping on the stat or your analysis, appreciate it, sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to get context on how these comparables came about

[Kirby Jackson]

I completely understand. I am just saying it is hard to really come up with that comparative number when we really only look at the Bills QBs and the Bills OL.

 

If anything it can be used as a comparison or growth of regression compared to last year is all i am saying. Not dumping on the stat or your analysis, appreciate it, sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to get context on how these comparables came about

I would think that his number's are pretty close and if anything on the low side. The Bills don't take many chances in the passing game. 5 is probably the perfect number to judge Tyrod on. I would think that someone like Jameis for example may be 8 or so. That is the design of their offense. The Bills don't try to make difficult throws which leads to unforced errors. In addition, they pass the ball less. A % of "unforced error" throws is probably the most accurate way to compare guys. Even still the system plays a big part.

 

I've said it a bunch but Tyrod and Alex Smith are similar to me. Those guys better have a low percentage of unforced errors because the majority of their attempts are fairly controlled. They aren't trying to split 3 defenders up the seam. Someone like Jameis will make some wow throws and miss on some wow throws. The Bills (and Chiefs) aren't even attempting those types of throws. They are so concerned with turnovers that they just throw it away, scramble or take the sack. It is just a different philosophy so it is hard to compare across the league.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[Bookie Man]

Thanks again Boce. Good work. I'd like to see Tyrod do a little more pre snap also. Here it seems the route combination would work well with Butler playing off of Powell here close to the 5 yard line. There is direct pressure up the middle and Tyrod scrambles and throws it away. But if he recognizes this pre snap, it looks like it would be an easy touchdown.

[MAJBobby]

I would think that his number's are pretty close and if anything on the low side. The Bills don't take many chances in the passing game. 5 is probably the perfect number to judge Tyrod on. I would think that someone like Jameis for example may be 8 or so. That is the design of their offense. The Bills don't try to make difficult throws which leads to unforced errors. In addition, they pass the ball less. A % of "unforced error" throws is probably the most accurate way to compare guys. Even still the system plays a big part.

 

I've said it a bunch but Tyrod and Alex Smith are similar to me. Those guys better have a low percentage of unforced errors because the majority of their attempts are fairly controlled. They aren't trying to split 3 defenders up the seam. Someone like Jameis will make some wow throws and miss on some wow throws. The Bills (and Chiefs) are even attempting those types of throws. They are so concerned with turnovers that they just throw it away, scramble or take the sack. It is just a different philosophy so it is hard to compare across the league.

Yes i get that, and again not dumping on it. Just it is an area that can grow %of unforced errors (your right) is probably the best way to do it.

 

But all i was trying to find out was where this number was.coming from so your Really Comparing 2016 TT to 2015 TT, not 2016 TT to a sampling of 2015 QBs. Thats all i wanted to know gives me context is all

[Kirby Jackson]

 

 

Let me just remind everyone that this guy is a biased fan just like all of us. His standards for a QB unforced error and sufficient line protection are not only subjective, but they have an inherit bias.

 

I appreciate (I really do) the effort that you make, but it's clear that your interest in stats has confused you into listing arbitrary variables as facts.

If it is clear what is he missing? I think that any review is clearly subjective but the margin for error isn't much on any given play. The overwhelming majority of plays you can identify the reason that a play broke down (especially with All 22).

Yes i get that, and again not dumping on it. Just it is an area that can grow %of unforced errors (your right) is probably the best way to do it.

 

But all i was trying to find out was where this number was.coming from so your Really Comparing 2016 TT to 2015 TT, not 2016 TT to a sampling of 2015 QBs. Thats all i wanted to know gives me context is all

I think that is fair.

[Bocephuz]

I completely understand. I am just saying it is hard to really come up with that comparative number when we really only look at the Bills QBs and the Bills OL.

 

If anything it can be used as a comparison or growth of regression compared to last year is all i am saying. Not dumping on the stat or your analysis, appreciate it, sorry if it came off that way. Just trying to get context on how these comparables came about

It's a valid point regarding Bills QB vs rest of league.

 

The heart of my analysis is to give an honest picture of how much pass rush affects any particular throw and how much is on the QB himself. I started this because I was trying to figure how how much of EJ's issues were due to bad o line play and how much was on him alone.

[Bocephuz]

Thanks again Boce. Good work. I'd like to see Tyrod do a little more pre snap also. Here it seems the route combination would work well with Butler playing off of Powell here close to the 5 yard line. There is direct pressure up the middle and Tyrod scrambles and throws it away. But if he recognizes this pre snap, it looks like it would be an easy touchdown.

Good observation. I still think TT is going off of pre-determined reads from the called play and he isn't really at a level of awareness to execute the kind of pre snap improvisation you point out here

I would think that his number's are pretty close and if anything on the low side. The Bills don't take many chances in the passing game. 5 is probably the perfect number to judge Tyrod on. I would think that someone like Jameis for example may be 8 or so. That is the design of their offense. The Bills don't try to make difficult throws which leads to unforced errors. In addition, they pass the ball less. A % of "unforced error" throws is probably the most accurate way to compare guys. Even still the system plays a big part.

 

I've said it a bunch but Tyrod and Alex Smith are similar to me. Those guys better have a low percentage of unforced errors because the majority of their attempts are fairly controlled. They aren't trying to split 3 defenders up the seam. Someone like Jameis will make some wow throws and miss on some wow throws. The Bills (and Chiefs) aren't even attempting those types of throws. They are so concerned with turnovers that they just throw it away, scramble or take the sack. It is just a different philosophy so it is hard to compare across the league.

TT and Alex Smith are good comparison. Both mobile and risk averse. Smith has better footwork and is better at timing routes... TT is better at deep ball

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff Bo, thanks for posting.

 

I think there are also so many variables to take into account such as the quality of the receivers out on the field the QB is attempting to throw to as I highly doubt most of the Bills players out on the field against the Patriots wouldn't even make the starting roster of the majority of NFL teams.

 

Then both Woods and Clay were dinged up and Clay left the game for a time from another injury. Woods foot must have been bothering him because he wasn't able to make his cuts on some plays.

 

If you look at the NFL receiving stats Robert Woods is the Buffalo Bills leading receiver currently ranked as the 83rd best in receiving yards Charles Clay is right behind him ranked at 92! To put into context how much Tyrod is missing Sammy Watkins, Watkins finished the 2015 season as the 22nd best receiver in yards.

 

Talking about the Bills QB stats playing in games without starting RB LeSean McCoy who is still listed as the 6th best rusher after missing two games and without the only elite receiver on the team you might as well be attempting to feel the nads on a sleeping grizzly because it ain't gonna end well.

[Bocephuz]

Good stuff Bo, thanks for posting.

 

I think there are also so many variables to take into account such as the quality of the receivers out on the field the QB is attempting to throw to as I highly doubt most of the Bills players out on the field against the Patriots wouldn't even make the starting roster of the majority of NFL teams.

 

Then both Woods and Clay were dinged up and Clay left the game for a time from another injury. Woods foot must have been bothering him because he wasn't able to make his cuts on some plays.

 

If you look at the NFL receiving stats Robert Woods is the Buffalo Bills leading receiver currently ranked as the 83rd best in receiving yards Charles Clay is right behind him ranked at 92! To put into context how much Tyrod is missing Sammy Watkins, Watkins finished the 2015 season as the 22nd best receiver in yards.

 

Talking about the Bills QB stats playing in games without starting RB LeSean McCoy who is still listed as the 6th best rusher after missing two games and without the only elite receiver on the team you might as well be attempting to feel the nads on a sleeping grizzly because it ain't gonna end well.

All valid points. If there was one takeaway from my post I would highlight it would be that while the O line had breakdowns it would be unfair to pin the majority of the O's issues in the passing game on poor protection

[Bocephuz]

 

Keep up the good work. We appreciate it!

👍