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Bills WR draft picks in the top 5 rounds since 2006


dayman

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As BuffaloHokie has already pointed out, Naker and Sakman cannot read.

I kan too reed.

 

(My point was it was a meaningless cut-off of 5 rounds and looking at the entire draft and comparing to the NFL long term average was much more insightful in terms of the Bills tendency to draft WR's in relation to the rest of the league.)

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I kan too reed.

 

(My point was it was a meaningless cut-off of 5 rounds and looking at the entire draft and comparing to the NFL long term average was much more insightful in terms of the Bills tendency to draft WR's in relation to the rest of the league.)

Antonio brown doesn't fall into this study and he's the best player in the league

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2015 2 Ronald Darby 50 CB

2016 2014 4 Ross Cockrell 109 DB 2013 4 Duke Williams 105 DB 2013 5 Jonathan Meeks 143 DB 2012 1 Stephon Gilmore 10 DB 2012 4 Ron Brooks 124 DB 2011 2 Aaron Williams 34 DB 2011 4 Da'Norris Searcy 100 DB 2009 2 Jairus Byrd 42 DB

2008 1 Leodis McKelvin 11 DB 2008 4 Reggie Corner 114 DB 2006 1 Donte Whitner 8 DB 2006 3 Ashton Youboty 70 DB 2006 4 Ko Simpson 105 DB

 

Actually 14 CBs, so more than double.

 

Picks are listed here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/draft.htm

Is Ko Simpson still worth millions?

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5 rounds is an arbitrary cutoff. He showed what other teams do in drafting WR's and the Bills averaged out.

 

If anything I added another round just to be safe...it is widely accepted that the first 4 rounds are the valuable picks...when you get to 5+ it starts to get dicey. To truly invest, you take someone in rounds 1-4...look at what happens when teams trade and you will see this is true.

 

The purpose of the topic is to talk about how we have not invested in the WR position. Citing a bunch of 6th and 7th round picks is irrelevant for purposes of the discussion...

Edited by dayman
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Ok. I went back and deleted the receivers taken in rounds 6 and 7.

Here are the team by team totals taken since 2007.

 

Atlanta - 4

Buffalo - 6

Carolina - 6

Chicago - 5

Cincinnati - 7

Cleveland - 9

Indy - 5

Arizona - 5

Dallas - 4

Denver - 6

Detroit - 5

Green Bay - 6

Houston - 9

Jax - 9

KC - 8

Miami - 8

Minny - 7

NewOrleans - 5

Pats*** - 6

Jints - 8

JESTS - 5

Ten - 7

Philly - 6

Pit - 7

Oakland - 7

Rams (STL/LA) - 11

Ballmore - 7

San Diego - 3

Seattle - 7

SanFran - 5

Tampa - 5

Washing - 7

 

That's 205 WRs taken in rounds 1-5 or 6.4 on average per NFL team.

The Bills took 6.

Eleven teams took 5 or less in that time frame.

Six teams including The Bills took 6 receivers. Those 17 teams are over half The League.

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If anything I added another round just to be safe...it is widely accepted that the first 4 rounds are the valuable picks...when you get to 5+ it starts to get dicey. To truly invest, you take someone in rounds 1-4...look at what happens when teams trade and you will see this is true.

 

The purpose of the topic is to talk about how we have not invested in the WR position. Citing a bunch of 6th and 7th round picks is irrelevant for purposes of the discussion...

 

I understand what you are saying but we have drafted an average amount at the WR position.

 

You may not like the picks, but every team drafts players who do not live up to their expectations:

 

For example

New England Patriots (Rounds 1-5 since 2006)

Malcolm Mitchell Round 4 2016

Aaron Dobson Round 2 2013

Josh Boyce Round 4 2013

Taylor Price Round 3 2010

Brandon Tate Round 3 2009

Matt Slater Round 5 2008

Chad Jackson Round 2 2006

 

Granted - Belichick can pick up any scrub and play them in his system (these guys all still didn't do well) -

 

The question remains, why wouldn't he just draft the good WRs?

 

It's very easy to select draft history and make GM's look foolish without context.

Edited by What a Tuel
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Read the thread title again.

I did.

 

Ok. I went back and deleted the receivers taken in rounds 6 and 7.

Here are the team by team totals taken since 2007.

 

Atlanta - 4

Buffalo - 6

Carolina - 6

Chicago - 5

Cincinnati - 7

Cleveland - 9

Indy - 5

Arizona - 5

Dallas - 4

Denver - 6

Detroit - 5

Green Bay - 6

Houston - 9

Jax - 9

KC - 8

Miami - 8

Minny - 7

NewOrleans - 5

Pats*** - 6

Jints - 8

JESTS - 5

Ten - 7

Philly - 6

Pit - 7

Oakland - 7

Rams (STL/LA) - 11

Ballmore - 7

San Diego - 3

Seattle - 7

SanFran - 5

Tampa - 5

Washing - 7

 

That's 205 WRs taken in rounds 1-5 or 6.4 on average per NFL team.

The Bills took 6.

Eleven teams took 5 or less in that time frame.

Six teams including The Bills took 6 receivers. Those 17 teams are over half The League.

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That list does tell the story.

 

Whaley needs Listenbee to step up. Whaley also needs to find some TE's.

 

Great point about Gailey's offense. Gailey really did maximize those guys potential on the offensive side of the ball.

 

However, to be fair to Whaley - when you look at the best TEs in the game, they are generally Drafted in the 3rd / 4th rounds and take a year or two to develop. Gronk is an aberration, but the rest of them are middle round guys. That's why I am ALWAYS against Drafting a TE in the 1st round and almost never Drafting a TE in the 2nd. The list is pretty incredible really, when you take a look at the position historically. That's also why getting Clay was important, because you're not waiting 2 to 3 years for a guy to develop the ability to play the position, he already has it....now, them *using* him properly and TT throwing him the ball is a completely different matter.

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I understand what you are saying but we have drafted an average amount at the WR position.

 

You may not like the picks, but every team drafts players who do not live up to their expectations:

 

For example

New England Patriots (Rounds 1-5 since 2006)

Malcolm Mitchell Round 4 2016

Aaron Dobson Round 2 2013

Josh Boyce Round 4 2013

Taylor Price Round 3 2010

Brandon Tate Round 3 2009

Matt Slater Round 5 2008

Chad Jackson Round 2 2006

 

Granted - Belichick can pick up any scrub and play them in his system (these guys all still didn't do well) -

 

The question remains, why wouldn't he just draft the good WRs?

 

It's very easy to select draft history and make GM's look foolish without context.

Good point!

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Year Rd Player Pick Pos

 

2014 1 Sammy Watkins 4 WR 2013 2 Robert Woods 41 WR 2013 3 Marquise Goodwin 78 WR 2012 3 T.J. Graham 69

WR

2010 4 Marcus Easley 107

WR

2008 2 James Hardy 41 WR

 

 

First off there are only 6 of them, and secondly it's bust central. We deserve this.

 

How do you think that would compare to the draft record of a team noted for top offense? It's about standard that overall, about 25% of draft picks from the top 5 rds make good, with maybe 50% from the top of round 1 and 30% from Rd 1-3. So of those 6 picks, the Bills have 2 good wide receivers (Watkins and Woods), a strong STer (Easley), and an occasional contributor (Goodwin). Let's call Easley and Goodwin 1/3 and make it 2.6/6 or 43%.

 

Let's take three from last year.

1. Carolina Panthers - 7 WR picks in top 5 rounds since 2006. Rounds 1,3, 5, 3, 3, 2, 4. Of those picks, two (Kelvin Benjamin, 2014 Rd 1 Pick 28 and Brandon LeFell, 2010 Rd 3 Pick 78) are starters and high quality players. A third (Dwayne Jarrett, 2007 Rd 2 Pick 45) saw limited time and contributed about a catch a game for 4 seasons. The rest (Rds 3,5, 3,5) did not contribute significantly. So that's running about 2.5/7 or 35%.

2. Arizona Cardinals - 6 WR picks in top 5 rounds since 2006. Rounds 5,3,1,3,3,5. Of these picks, three have seen significant playing time and a fourth has contributed, but none has become a star. In particular, Michael Floyd, drafted 2012 Rd 1 Pick 12, has been a good player but with a catch percentage vacillating between 38 and 58%, has not been the clutch player they hoped for. So maybe call that 3/6 or 50%, but with a bit of an asterisk since no consistent starters. Still, they have done better than most and better than we have at finding players who at least contribute.

3. New England - 6 WR picks in top 5 rounds since 2006. Rounds 4,2,4,3,3,5. Of these picks, none have seen significant playing time for the Pats, though Malcolm Mitchell has contributed some pre game shoving topped by a Belicheck-speak explanation and Brandon Tate is a decent punt returner - for us. Let's call that 1/6 or 17%.

 

I'm not saying that the Bills have made great draft choices at WR or couldn't have done better, but the fact is, the number of picks they've devoted to WR and the number of players who have not worked out for them are not atypical around the league. Fans get a weird idea of what "draft success" for a good team looks like. The fact is, the majority of draft picks are busts.

 

Context is needed. Sometimes we think our team is a failure if every draft pick doesn't work out but the truth is, around the league, most don't.

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Year Rd Player Pick Pos

 

2014 1 Sammy Watkins 4 WR 2013 2 Robert Woods 41 WR 2013 3 Marquise Goodwin 78 WR 2012 3 T.J. Graham 69

WR

2010 4 Marcus Easley 107

WR

2008 2 James Hardy 41 WR

 

 

First off there are only 6 of them, and secondly it's bust central. We deserve this.

 

We deserve what?

 

No doubt that this team had some brutal drafts in the waning days of Ralph's reign. No excuse for a guy like Hardy who had no NFL qualities other than height.

 

It does seem like in today's NFL you need to draft for your 4th and 5th corners, but you can find your 4th and 5th WRs on the street. I give Whaley credit for finding guys like Salas and Powell.

 

I don't have a problem with the Woods pick. He is a team player, a great blocker, he has battled through injuries and if you actually target him he makes things happen - see last week. A team that didn't run the ball so much would utilize Woods more and you would see more production.

 

Watkins is a beast. Whaley took a big swing and we'll have to see if he stays healthy over his career.

 

Goodwin has already played more games than I would have expected. He is not going to stack a lot of catches but he is valuable to this offense.

 

We are thin at WR because our best WR is hurt. The Bills are a run heavy team with decent complementary WRs, a strong tight end, and RBs who can catch the ball.

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