The best move for the Bills in the draft is to trade down.

[machine gun kelly]

I found this article interesting in answering the question I had - is trading down generally a good idea?

 

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2013/04/noteworthy_examples_of_trading.html

 

I don't trust a lot about the Bills these days but I do trust their current crop of scouts. I'd stay put at 19 and pick a player.

 

dpberr - thanks for sharing the article as a simplistic view of just wanting to move down is not a viable strategy. This article really points out there are too many variables, and more information is needed on each draft as they are unique to make those decisions.

 

Trading down could be a good move, and trading up could be a good move too for the right person.

[mannc]

This missed my point though (at least I didn't see it). You make the value play. The cost is what determines if it was the right decision.The Dolphins went from 12 to 3 and it cost them 1 of their 2 second round picks. The Redskins went from 6 to 2 and it cost them 2 additional first round picks and a second.

 

If the Dolphins took Ziggy Ansah instead of Dion Jordan it would have been a fantastic move. The player they chose made it a bad move. The decision to move up based on the value was a good one.

Except that the "draft value chart" is not worth the paper it's written on. In some years moving up into the top 3 is cheaper because there is not much separation between the prospects, while in other years there is a big drop off. The Dolphins would have been better off keeping their 12th pick and their second rounder, regardless what "the chart" said. They had two chances to land impact players and instead they put all their marbles on a guy who obviously was far from a sure thing--exactly why trading up is generally a mistake. I would call it arrogance, or maybe just stupidity.

[Kirby Jackson]

Except that the "draft value chart" is not worth the paper it's written on. In some years moving up into the top 3 is cheaper because there is not much separation between the prospects, while in other years there is a big drop off. The Dolphins would have been better off keeping their 12th pick and their second rounder, regardless what "the chart" said. They had two chances to land impact players and instead they put all their marbles on a guy who obviously was far from a sure thing--exactly why trading up is generally a mistake. I would call it arrogance, or maybe just stupidity.

I just don't agree. In that garbage draft they had a chance to come away with the best player. They took the wrong guy. The cost to get the best player was a 2nd round pick in a terrible draft. That pick was probably the equivalent to a 3rd-4th in most drafts. There were like 19 players with a 1st round grade. Everyone got pushed up. There was 1 impact player at and impact position. They took the wrong guy. If they took Ansah everyone would rave about how little they paid to make that move. Ansah and a 2nd in that draft is way, way better than the 12th pick and 2 seconds.

Edited April 1, 2016 by Kirby Jackson

[CardinalScotts]

teams trade up to 16-19-21-25 in the first round all the time. they have the 4.5 million room for draft picks. make the selection at 19

[Chuck Wagon]

32 teams want to trade down in this draft.

[mannc]

I just don't agree. In that garbage draft they had a chance to come away with the best player. They took the wrong guy. The cost to get the best player was a 2nd round pick in a terrible draft. That pick was probably the equivalent to a 3rd-4th in most drafts. There were like 19 players with a 1st round grade. Everyone got pushed up. There was 1 impact player at and impact position. They took the wrong guy. If they took Ansah everyone would race about how little they paid to make that move. Ansah and a 2nd in that draft is way, way better than the 12th pick and 2 seconds.

Exactly my point. The Dolphins didn't pick Ansah because they were unable to tell who the best available player was; it's possible that the Lions would have preferred Jordan to Ansah too, but they didn't panic. There was nothing to distinguish the first 12 players in that draft and therefore little reason to give up anything of value to move up, unless you were arrogant enough to believe you alone could pinpoint the "best player". Of the first six picks, four have been major disappointments and in fact, the best player in the draft was picked 13th by the Jets. There is every possibility that Jordan would have been available at 12 anyway. It was an arrogant move and it blew up in their faces.

[Kirby Jackson]

Exactly my point. The Dolphins didn't pick Ansah because they were unable to tell who the best available player was; it's possible that the Lions would have preferred Jordan to Ansah too, but they didn't panic. There was nothing to distinguish the first 12 players in that draft and therefore little reason to give up anything of value to move up, unless you were arrogant enough to believe you alone could pinpoint the "best player". Of the first six picks, four have been major disappointments and in fact, the best player in the draft was picked 13th by the Jets. There is every possibility that Jordan would have been available at 12 anyway. It was an arrogant move and it blew up in their faces.

We definitely disagree here. Ansah has 30 sacks in his first 3 seasons including 14.5 last year. Richardson is a nice player with question marks off the field. Ansah is a star.

[mannc]

We definitely disagree here. Ansah has 30 sacks in his first 3 seasons including 14.5 last year. Richardson is a nice player with question marks off the field. Ansah is a star.

Fine. They are both very good players. Richardson has probably been the best player on a very good Jets defense and was very good from his first game as a rookie.

[The Tomcat]

I think it depends on who falls, who shouldn't be there that someone wants to jump up 5 spots or so...maybe if someone like

Treadwell falls to that point?

 

I don't want to go down too much. Maybe add a 3rd rounder to drop a few spots.

 

Don't forget we get 2 comp picks....

[apuszczalowski]

The best move for the Bills to make in the draft is to get quality players, not stock pile quantity. Stockpiling quantity keeps you mediocre,quality makesbyou better. The good teams get to stock pile picks and move down because they already have the quality, and ours, they may trade down to accumulate picks, but then they use those pieces to move around and get quality.

[Best Player Available]

The best move for the Bills to make in the draft is to get quality players, not stock pile quantity. Stockpiling quantity keeps you mediocre,quality makesbyou better. The good teams get to stock pile picks and move down because they already have the quality, and ours, they may trade down to accumulate picks, but then they use those pieces to move around and get quality.

^^^^ This is a quality post IMO

[3rdand12]

The best move for the Bills to make in the draft is to get quality players, not stock pile quantity. Stockpiling quantity keeps you mediocre,quality makesbyou better. The good teams get to stock pile picks and move down because they already have the quality, and ours, they may trade down to accumulate picks, but then they use those pieces to move around and get quality.

yep.

Team has to get the core in place over some amount of good drafts and FA, then you can " stockpile" to use as a leverage to move around for your guy.

Qty does not directly equate to quality, of course! It create some flexibility and a bit of potential freedom

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

Under someone's post of Paxton Lynch to #19 and somebody moving up and giving us extra picks-----> Take Paxton Lynch. Tyrod is an injury waiting to happen and we don't have a backup worth crap.. Take Lynch don't accumulate picks. We have enough picks to get good players throughout this draft. If you pass & you don't trade down, I think the Jets would take him.

[Tipster19]

The best move for the Bills to make in the draft is to get quality players, not stock pile quantity. Stockpiling quantity keeps you mediocre,quality makesbyou better. The good teams get to stock pile picks and move down because they already have the quality, and ours, they may trade down to accumulate picks, but then they use those pieces to move around and get quality.

yep.

Team has to get the core in place over some amount of good drafts and FA, then you can " stockpile" to use as a leverage to move around for your guy.

Qty does not directly equate to quality, of course! It create some flexibility and a bit of potential freedom

Each of your points got me thinking. Loosely speaking what if the Bills were able to trade down this year to some degree (some kind of 2nd or 3rd rd pick?) and also wind up with a 2017 1st rd pick in the process? I don't know much about college prospects, especially future ones, but in 2017 is there any big time QB prospects? If so I'm wondering if this could be a creative way of putting yourself in a great position to be able to insure yourself a top prospect, especially at the QB position with two 1st rd picks plus whatever else one would need to add to the mix. I'd much rather do it this way than to do it like how the Redskins did it for RGIII, where they mortgaged their future by trading multiple future 1st rd picks.

[Kirby Jackson]

 

Each of your points got me thinking. Loosely speaking what if the Bills were able to trade down this year to some degree (some kind of 2nd or 3rd rd pick?) and also wind up with a 2017 1st rd pick in the process? I don't know much about college prospects, especially future ones, but in 2017 is there any big time QB prospects? If so I'm wondering if this could be a creative way of putting yourself in a great position to be able to insure yourself a top prospect, especially at the QB position with two 1st rd picks plus whatever else one would need to add to the mix. I'd much rather do it this way than to do it like how the Redskins did it for RGIII, where they mortgaged their future by trading multiple future 1st rd picks.

DeShaun Watson

[Malazan]

omg, trade down for more picks! GENUIS idea. We certainly don't get this thread....every....single...year.

 

At best, if you traded back from 19th to say...1st pick of the 2nd round, you'd get the 33rd pick and then somewhere in the like 55+. Not bad, but you need a trade partner and another team that can't offer a better deal.

[3rdand12]

omg, trade down for more picks! GENUIS idea. We certainly don't get this thread....every....single...year.

 

At best, if you traded back from 19th to say...1st pick of the 2nd round, you'd get the 33rd pick and then somewhere in the like 55+. Not bad, but you need a trade partner and another team that can't offer a better deal.

Of course we get this thread!

Tis the season. so it is fun to consider the variables

[NastyNateSoldiers]

Now that the Jets are showing interest in Paxton Lynch we have a dilemma. If the the Bills see Lynch as possible franchise QB we have to either take him or trade bk and let someone else get him. We can't afford to let the Jets acquire this kid if we think he'll be a great pro. Imagine the threads on this site if we allow the Jets to take Lynch and he ends up beating us for 10-15 yrs while hoisting multiple Superbowl trophies. Talk about worse case scenarios wow!

[GunnerBill]

Paxton Lynch won't be leading anyone to multiple Superbowl trophies. No dilemma for me. I'd pass every time.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

Paxton Lynch won't be leading anyone to multiple Superbowl trophies. No dilemma for me. I'd pass every time.

I'm not saying he will but u never know. The point is if PL has a future franchise QB grade from the Bills it's imperative that we don't let our division rivals get him.