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Lock of the week. Rob Ryan will be the DC next year.

 

EDIT: forgot to add :sick:

That's an important edit. I mean, how do you make the defense even more "Rex" than it currently is? Work from the same gene pool. And hey, Rex can get even better Christmas presents if his brother has a job! What's to lose? (Besides, of course, my sanity!)

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OK, why?

On my phone so will type a detailed response later. But in short, his previous stints have been terrible. As with RR, his performances seem to be littered with excuses. The games iv watched, he always looked animated (almost Carl Mauck-ish) and helpless while his D was taking a beating. I don't think the Bills are in a position to take a flyer on OC and DC.

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Rob is a one hit wonder. Good for the first year or two. After that, his defenses take a nosedive, and out the door he goes. He might make a good assistant, but that's as far as it goes.

Twins are connected on multiple levels.

 

communication would improve.

Maybe Brown could finally call those plays in time for Mario to do even less.

 

Craxy thought having Rob on the team in any capacity.

strange things happen for the Bills.

I agree with everything you say, except that Thurman wont get fired (or at least edged out). I've been saying all along it won't be until his second season to see the benefits of Rex's defense because of the need to get the personell to fit the scheme. Fundamentally this raises a bigger problem with Rex: he should be a DC, not an HC. Hes not a good general manager (as evidenced by lack of player discipline), and he (at best) brings nothing to the offense. Just like Chan gailey is a good OC, but was ill-equipped to be an HC. Nonetheless Rex will be the HC next year, which I think makes someone vulnerable to take the fall for this season. And if its Thurman opens the door for brother rob...these Ryan's are nothing else if not bold and fiercely loyal to each other.

so Rob for HC and Rex for DC and Dennis pushes Dunbar out??

is that what you are saying here?

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I don't think Thurmann will be fired. Anything involving the defense starts with Ryan. He has already come out and said that he tried to incorporate too much of what we did last year and it did not mix well with what they were installing. Players will be switched out. To run a complex defensive scheme, you need smart defenders and the Bills do not have alot of defenders with natural instincts IMO. Also, the perceived connection to the defense we ran under Pettine was overblown. We were much more of a 43 UNDER base that season than anything resembling a 34 which Ryan likes to run.

 

The defensive side of the ball has always been more suited running a 43. Dareus, Hughes, A. Williams, and Gilmore are scheme diverse players. Dareus can play 34 DE, NT, 43 DT. Hughes can play 43DE or 34 OLB. A. Williams can play FS, SS, and can cover both TEs and WRs if needed and can play in the tackle box close to the line or in center field. Gilmore can play man, press, or zone although he is a better man defender than zone guy IMO. But guys like Mario, Kyle, and Bradham do not fit into a 34 scheme very well.

 

You can't blame Ryan, however. He knows his defensive system. He made a name for himself as a superstar DC playing his defensive system. He was hired as a HC because of his defensive system. You can't hire him as a HC and hand him players that don't fit. He has always had a pure NT, expect for this season. He has always had 2 identical safeties who are interchangeable(this is a big part of what he does in coverage) except for this season. He has always had a combo LB who can rush and cover, except for this season. If the Bills were supposed to make a push for the playoffs this year on the strength of their defense and improving the offense than Ryan was not the right hire. It didn't make sense as a one year move that Ryan would come in and improve the defense by playing a watered down version of his schemes. I think alot of people including those with the Bills overvalued some of the talent on D and their ability to play in multiple schemes. Nigel Bradham, for example, was drafted to 43 LB under Wanny, then was lost playing more inside under Pettine, and blossomed playing OLB for Schwartz. He is clearly a gifted player playing out of scheme. Anyway, I could go on.

 

The blame needs to fall on who signed off that this idea would work because hiring Ryan and making almost no defensive personnel changes to help the team adjust was a big mistake. The guy to hire with this defensive personnel was Dan Quinn from SEA, but it remains to be seen if he would even have wanted the job considering the QB situation at the time which remember was regarded as one of the worst 1 or 2 situations in the NFL.

 

At this point, the Bills need to go all in on Ryan's defensive scheme. There is no turning back. What's done is done. There really is no other option.

 

There is most definitely turning back if the Pegulas have the courage to admit their mistake and jettison Rex. He was a flash in the pan as a DC and as a HC. His first two years were likely the result of what Mangini left him. He stinks! What Rex was this year is who he is. He will not change. It has nothing at all to do with his "scheme" and the players getting it. He is in way over his head. He needs to go away.

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On my phone so will type a detailed response later. But in short, his previous stints have been terrible. As with RR, his performances seem to be littered with excuses. The games iv watched, he always looked animated (almost Carl Mauck-ish) and helpless while his D was taking a beating. I don't think the Bills are in a position to take a flyer on OC and DC.

 

Okay, Hopeful. It wasnt just my perception. Check out where his defenses ranked:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRo0.htm

 

You have to search real hard to find single digits for any category.

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There is most definitely turning back if the Pegulas have the courage to admit their mistake and jettison Rex. He was a flash in the pan as a DC and as a HC. His first two years were likely the result of what Mangini left him. He stinks! What Rex was this year is who he is. He will not change. It has nothing at all to do with his "scheme" and the players getting it. He is in way over his head. He needs to go away.

 

I think bringing in a GM/President who will evaluate Ryan and have the power to fire him whenever he wants is all they have to do. They need to hand over the football operations to someone who oversee all aspects of the organization.

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I don't know, and I doubt anyone does because Rex Ryan clearly calls the shots on defense. Who knows what the defense would look like if Dennis had complete control?

 

Edit: Similarly, how could one properly evaluate Curtis Modkins' performance as OC under Gailey?

We know what it would look like, Rex said Thurman called the whole Jets game, where our Defense pretty much won the game for us....so I'm not sure what would help fix our Def problems at this point, knowing that Pegula wont fire Rex after one season, other than bringing in some high quality veteran 3-4 ERs and ILBs. Im hoping for Wilkerson who I know is a free agent after this season, and familiar with Rex's scheme.

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I agree with everything you say, except that Thurman wont get fired (or at least edged out). I've been saying all along it won't be until his second season to see the benefits of Rex's defense because of the need to get the personell to fit the scheme. Fundamentally this raises a bigger problem with Rex: he should be a DC, not an HC. Hes not a good general manager (as evidenced by lack of player discipline), and he (at best) brings nothing to the offense. Just like Chan gailey is a good OC, but was ill-equipped to be an HC. Nonetheless Rex will be the HC next year, which I think makes someone vulnerable to take the fall for this season. And if its Thurman opens the door for brother rob...these Ryan's are nothing else if not bold and fiercely loyal to each other.

IF Rob Ryan takes over as DC I will not be pleased to say the least. (Vomits at the thought)

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Some are speculating Rex is gone. Just a year into this and something like $20 million left on his contract, I'm not seeing it. IMO Pegs is more likely to give Rex even more of what he wants, in a critical "make or break" second season...to give him every chance to succeed before pulling the plugs. That said someone is likely to be the fall guy for this season. The biggest fall was on the defensive side, which isolates Dennis Thurman as the target. Rex has already said he relishes the thought of coaching with his brother. Putting it all together, I see Pegs granting Rex his wish and approving the hire. It may not be an immediate release of Thurman, could also be a setup to force him out by naming Rob something like "assistant HC" or "defensive consultant".

 

He always gets booted from being DC because his defense under performs, no thanks.

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Rob Ryan is horrible. NFL Radio pulled up a couple of weeks ago how his defenses ranked year by year, and almost every year they were in the bottom half of the NFL. If memory serves, in 10 years his defenses were only in the top half (not top10) twice. Bob Papa was questioning whyanyone would hire him based on a long unproductive resume except for, wait for it, yes, his big brother Rex.

 

Pegula is in for $22 mil more for Rex ($5.5 / yr) so the notion to give him more of what he wants does make sense to let Rex hang himself. Since Pettine certainly will get fired at the end of the year, this would make more sense as he has shown he can work with Rex. We sucked against the run with Pettine, but we had a ton of sacks, pass defense was in the top 3 in the league. Rob could be an asst coach, but Pettine would call the defense. Pettine will never get another HC this year. He'll have to go back to being a coordinator for at least 1-2 years.

 

Personally, I like Pettine. Hopefully he could figure out how to fix the run defense in his system.

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The defensive coordinators primary job when the head coach calls the plays is to teach the defense and instill the gameplan.

 

Dennis Thurman has clearly failed. Not sure Rob is any better (he's terrible in his own) but at least he knows the D.

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Okay, Hopeful. It wasnt just my perception. Check out where his defenses ranked:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/RyanRo0.htm

 

You have to search real hard to find single digits for any category.

Agreed. Rob Ryan is a terrible DC. No DC puts more pressure on his CBs than him, it never seems to work for long and he never changes from it. It's just brutal to watch.

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Rob Ryan is horrible. NFL Radio pulled up a couple of weeks ago how his defenses ranked year by year, and almost every year they were in the bottom half of the NFL. If memory serves, in 10 years his defenses were only in the top half (not top10) twice. Bob Papa was questioning whyanyone would hire him based on a long unproductive resume except for, wait for it, yes, his big brother Rex.

 

Pegula is in for $22 mil more for Rex ($5.5 / yr) so the notion to give him more of what he wants does make sense to let Rex hang himself. Since Pettine certainly will get fired at the end of the year, this would make more sense as he has shown he can work with Rex. We sucked against the run with Pettine, but we had a ton of sacks, pass defense was in the top 3 in the league. Rob could be an asst coach, but Pettine would call the defense. Pettine will never get another HC this year. He'll have to go back to being a coordinator for at least 1-2 years.

 

Personally, I like Pettine. Hopefully he could figure out how to fix the run defense in his system.

 

makes the most sense, I don't understand how Pettine could run Rex's defense here with basically these players and Rex can't

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