Gordio Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I didn't trust his resume with the talent he played against. So hard to tell with these guys. Look at Fisher the year before. Looks like a bust from a small school. And OLB was just as big a need as WR. I still think Sammy can be a superstar but but... I had doubts about his resume too until I watched him play opening day against Ohio State his last year at UB. Even though UB lost, he was the best player on the field that day. I was sold on him after that. I like Watkins too though. We just don't utilize him the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I think that conflates several things. OBJ's circus catches are not because of "great throws". That's clearly absurd. But those catches do show that OBJ is vastly more than a Chris Hogan type of WR. No one ever said Manning isn't a veteran QB or that he doesn't understand his offense. He is an upper echelon QB, who, when he is really hot, is capable of beating anyone. Still, he's not perfect on every throw. Let's also give kudos to the coaching staff for having and keeping Eli in an offense he can play at a high level in. (And by extension, management and ownership for hiring the right people, makes the trade, and giving Manning and the coaches the time and space to develop.) Nor is the Giants offense very talented this year. You got Manning and OBJ playing catch and very little else. As a team, they've struggled. I agree that it's apples and oranges to compare the Bills offense to the Giants in 2015. In truth, it only makes trading up to take a WR when they don't have a QB all that much more of a head scratcher. You touch on some very good points. The Giants don't even attempted to pretend to have a balanced offense, it's basically feed ODB and occasionally try to catch the defense off guard with something else. I view Eli's "off target" throws as giving his guy a chance to make a play on the ball, Tyrod still plays it pretty close to the vest, players of Beckham/Sammy's pedigree are rarely able to get wide open for easy plays. Some of the chance plays/crazy catches ODB are able to make are plays where Tyrod would just tuck it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Mack is what Mario and/or Hughes and/or Dareus is supposed to look like. This "elite" DL needs to take over games once in a while. Instead they have almost no impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordio Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Agree with this, although I think Lee Evans is a bit of an undersell and if we want to stick with former Bills as benchmarks I'd say Sammy is somewhere between Lee Evans and Eric Moulds. A very good to great receiver for sure but not OBD, Megatron, J. Jones type. The trade to move up to get him was silly but that's what you get with fantasy football GM Whaley. spot on & the day we drafted Watkins I said if you think your getting Megatron, Fitz. Jones your going to be sadly disappointed. Watkins is what he is. A good but not great #1 receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The problem with investing so much in a WR without having a top notch QB is that a WR can only make plays when the ball is thrown to him. A DE, T, DT, LB, S, CB, etc. plays every down and therefore has a lot more impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 All this arguing over Sammy / Mack / ODB is ridiculous. Sammy is one of the 10 best players from that draft class. If you really want to use hindsight being 20/20, the real value would have been Aaron Donald or Zach Martin at #9 and Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry over Kuoandjio at #44. People should be grateful we walked out with Sammy instead of guys like Justin Gilbert or Ebron, not looking at it glass half empty lamenting Mack and ODB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This is idiotic. Let's rewrite history. Bills don't move up. I think it's safe to assume Watkins goes in the first 6 picks, and let's say Tampa sticks with Evans @ 7. That leaves: 8. CLE 9. BUF 10. DET 11. TEN 12. NYG He's ASSUMING this means the Bills get Beckham at 9. However, Giants GM Reese said immediately after the draft that they were in love with Beckham & had him high on their board within the top 10 (as a note he's also been asked if he had him above Watkins and he says no, not that high but we knew he'd be gone). Who's to say they don't trade with CLE and draft him #8? And then Bills get Eric Ebron like a large % of people wanted and we watch Watkins play in [Atlanta?] & ODB in New York. Great. The Bills needed a #1 WR and now have a #1WR. Was there a cheaper and/or better option? Sure, but you're never going to get everything exactly right. He filled the need of #1 WR and seems to be a special player. He's equating that to EJ? There we needed a #1QB and then....stilled need a #1QB. That one is a problem, yes. I feel like this only gets brought up because of the extra #1 draft pick. But really, who cares about that. It was a #19 pick. Go look at picks 19-49 and tell me which world beater we missed out on and/or who you'd rather have than Darby. What a stupid lazy tweet. How about we get Ebron, don't sign Clay, and use some of his contract while trading a 4th for BMarsh. Do we have a better record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 (edited) I don't get crediting Manning for Beckham's insane circus catches. "Great throws" don't produce superhuman grabs. OBJ is, quite simply, a great player who makes catches no one else can. You're wasting your breath. Didn't you know you are posting in the only corner of the universe where Watkins is inarguably better than ODB (statistics and highlight reels be damned) and where it was a stroke of genius to trade up for him? Now get ready for the "But we would have drafted Ebron, not OBD" arguments. Edited December 15, 2015 by mannc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Watkins isn't even better than Evans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 spot on & the day we drafted Watkins I said if you think your getting Megatron, Fitz. Jones your going to be sadly disappointed. Watkins is what he is. A good but not great #1 receiver. At Clemson, I considered him a guy who excelled in playing in space. (Sort of like another speedster the Bills picked in the first round from the same school.) Watkins was an accomplished runner with the ball. The quandary is how it comes about that a guy like Dabo Swinney can coach to these guys strengths and sell the Bills personnel department on the game tape and then, once drafted, the Bills "don't use 'em right" as someone put it up-thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 All this arguing over Sammy / Mack / ODB is ridiculous. Sammy is one of the 10 best players from that draft class. If you really want to use hindsight being 20/20, the real value would have been Aaron Donald or Zach Martin at #9 and Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry over Kuoandjio at #44. People should be grateful we walked out with Sammy instead of guys like Justin Gilbert or Ebron, not looking at it glass half empty lamenting Mack and ODB.Now this is a rational position to take. I buy it. But just stop trying to convince everyone that Watkins is better than ODB. (I don't mean you, Chuck Wagon.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 You're wasting your breath. Didn't you know you are posting in the only corner of the universe where Watkins is inarguably better than ODB (statistics and highlight reels be damned) and where it was a stroke of genius to trade up for him? Now get ready for the "But we would have drafted Ebron, not OBD" arguments. PS: People are always going to be comparing Watkins to Beckham. People need to get their big boy pants on. It's going to continue to happen for years. PPS: Schadenfreude? Mike Evans isn't blossoming with Jameis Winston as his #1 overall QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utah John Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I really thought that was why we traded up, to get Mack, not Sammy. I was not happy about such a step price to get Mack. But was thinking "oh well he might be worth the risk". Thought having the LBs as Kiko and Mack was a stellar combo dream. Then they drafted Sammy, I said WTF! Nice, but not at that price with all the projected WR talent that year. I was quite confident we could get a very good WR in the 2nd round with such depth at WR that year. This was exactly my thinking when they announced the trade with Cleveland. Why else pay such a high cost to move up a few spots -- obviously to get the premier talent in the draft. I remember many pundits suggesting Mack should be the top pick, over Clowney (and he's turned out to be a better player than Clowney, too). I did think Watkins was the best receiver in the draft, to be honest, and I still think he's going to be a great player, I did not see Beckham developing like he has. Of course he has Manning throwing to him so that's a big advantage also. Also Kiko has not figured out the pro game, or offensive coordinators have figured out how to beat him. On the Bills TD run on Sunday, Kiko was in position but overran the play. How many times did we see him do that for Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chuck Wagon Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Watkins isn't even better than Evans. Right now the only thing Evans is doing better than Sammy is dropping balls and picking up penalties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Watkins is fast becoming a 9 route specific WR like Lee Evans was. For Watkins to get the plaudits OBJ does, he needs to be making catches over the middle and getting yards after the catch. Still, I'm not sure he's got the QB who'll be able to do that, which makes me wonder what SW becomes when defenses realize TT's limitations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChan Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Right now the only thing Evans is doing better than Sammy is dropping balls and picking up penalties. And catching more passes for more yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not at the table Karlos Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 (edited) Rex would have Mack in pass coverage every playhe's good at it. He can play every linebacker position in any defense and both DE in a 43. The guy can do it all. Cover, rush the passer, and stop the run. He is a perfect fit for anything you want to do. Edited December 15, 2015 by Not at the table Karlos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 (edited) ODB 142 Targets Catch % - 60% of targets Yards per Target - 9.29 Touchdown % - 8.45 % of targets Sammy 64 Targets Catch % - 61% of targets Yards per Target - 11.19 Touchdown % - 11% of targets The Giants design ways to get Beckham open, move him all over the formation and feed him with targets. Sammy largely lines up in the same spots and runs the same few routes. ODB has made some highlight catches, but he's also missed some easy ones he's tried to turn into highlights. Sammy's move on Revis to clinch the Jets game was a thing of beauty, but that's not leading sportscenter. You can argue Sammy's production may diminish with more targets, but looking at how each team uses each guy and the end result of their targets, it's conjecture to say ODB is clearly a better player than Sammy. There are two reasons (other than injury) that would explain why Watkins and Beckham have similar percentages, but much different chances:1. Coaching/use - If he could be more productive with more opportunities and better scheme then it is all on the coaching staff. The compounding issue with underutilizing a player like Watkins is that his real potential value is higher than his value to the team. That can be trouble not only from a draft cost, but from a contract cost. What happens when his agent negotiates his first big contract if he's not fully utilized? His agent could reasonably estimate Watkins' market value assuming full utilization of his skills and the Bills could (also very reasonably) estimate his future value based on his actual past performance with the team. There'd be quite a gap to navigate and the result would be that Watkins would get a contract a lot closer to his agent's estimate than the Bills'. That contract might be from the Bills, who would be overpaying, or from another team. 2. Ability - It's definitely possible that Watkins isn't capable of carrying much more of the load than he already is due several factors - wearing down over the course of a game or a season, increased susceptibility to injury, inability to continue to make plays when drawing more focus from the defense, etc. Sometimes less is more with certain players. There's no way to know if Watkins can carry more of the load without asking him to do it. So what should be done is obvious. Beckham is a much more valuable WR than Watkins because he's proven what he can do and how much of an offensive load he can carry. With Watkins it is a projection based on him being a much smaller part of his offense. The Bills need to find out what they have in Watkins before they have to negotiate his next contract and there's less time for that than one might think. I'd want to see two years of high production and he's already two years into his 4 (5 if option is picked up) year deal. Push him. See what he can (and can't) do. Go from there with an informed opinion. Edited December 15, 2015 by BarleyNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 But just stop trying to convince everyone that Watkins is better than ODB. (I don't mean you, Chuck Wagon.) While Odell has had a great start and maybe looks better than Sammy, I wonder if Sammy had Eli throwing him the football the last 2 years and Odell had EJ and Hotrod not throwing him the football all that much if we'd think Sammy was better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 (edited) OBJ is breaking pretty much every WR record after 25 games played. I agree with the others Watkins reminds me of Lee Evans...boom or bust in production. They are both very inconsistent WR's week in and week out. Edited December 15, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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