thebandit27 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Spotrac now has a new roster management tool that is extremely useful when looking at next year's cap situation. Try it yourself: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roster/buffalo-bills/ Here's what I did: Released Mario Williams Kyle Williams Aaron Williams (retirement) Leodis McKelvin Manny Lawson Dan Carpenter Boobie Dixon Savings against the cap - $32.675M Assuming the cap will be $150M (in actuality it'll be a bit higher), that puts the team at $33M under the cap. I didn't want to touch Clay's deal, as leaving it alone provides a lot more space down the road. Re-sign Cordy Glenn - 5 years, $35M with $11M gtd (same contract as Jared Veldheer got from Arizona; neither has made the pro bowl, but both are bona fide starting LTs). Assume cap hit of $8M in year 1. Richie Incognito - 5 years, $25M with $8M gtd (close to Clint Boling's deal in Cincinnati; less money due to age). Assume cap hit of $5M in year 1. Stephon Gilmore - 5 years, $55M with $30M gtd (more than Byron Maxwell, less than Joe Haden). Assume $11M cap hit in year 1 (same as his rookie contract option year cap hit). Do Not Re-sign Nigel Bradham - down year and not a great fit for this defense Alex Carrington - too many injuries and too many guys that can play his role; also getting Jarius Wynn back from injury makes him expendable The above leaves the Bills $20M under the cap to add some pieces in FA. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kota Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 20M won't cover the loss of Kyle Williams or Mario Williams. Where is the pass rush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fridge Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 That's pretty similar to what I would assume. They could restructure Mario or extend Rambo as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) Hasn't Lawson play well this year? Edited December 14, 2015 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 20M won't cover the loss of Kyle Williams or Mario Williams. Where is the pass rush? Good question, where is the pass rush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Releasing 6 starters to get us out of cap hell who we have to replace with the money we just freed up....also losing players via free agency...man there is going to be a lot of holes to fill come the offseason... I totally agree with your plan though...those cuts need to be made to the team to get us out of this mess Whaley created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 I think that if we can dedicate that $20M in cap space to a NT like Damon Harrison, an ILB like Vincent Rey or Jerrell Freeman, a big WR like Muhammad Sanu, and a backup QB like Matt Hasselbeck, that would go a long way. 20M won't cover the loss of Kyle Williams or Mario Williams. Where is the pass rush? I'm assuming a traditional 3-4 next year, so a DL of Dareus-Damon Harrison (see above)-Corbin Bryant. They'll have to add an edge rusher to compliment Hughes, and I'm assuming an ILB tandem of Preston Brown and Vincent Rey or Jerrell Freeman (again, see above). Hasn't Lawson play well this year? He's been okay at times, but you can find a guy to do what he does for much less IMO. Releasing 6 starters to get us out of cap hell who we have to replace with the money we just freed up....also losing players via free agency...man there is going to be a lot of holes to fill come the offseason... I totally agree with your plan though...those cuts need to be made to the team to get us out of this mess Whaley created. I don't think Whaley has created a mess really, I think that some guys have outlived their usefulness and don't fit the scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoloinOhio Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I think they will keep Kyle and Lawson, and draft a pass rusher to replace Mario and a LB to replace Bradham. That's what I would do anyway! Agree with the rest - they are in decent shape as I don't think they will be big FA players and instead focus on re-signing their homegrown talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Under my scenario, the draft would add a RT, safety, edge rusher, and developmental QB. Nevertheless, go play with the website and see what you end up with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 (edited) I think that if we can dedicate that $20M in cap space to a NT like Damon Harrison, an ILB like Vincent Rey or Jerrell Freeman, a big WR like Muhammad Sanu, and a backup QB like Matt Hasselbeck, that would go a long way. I'm assuming a traditional 3-4 next year, so a DL of Dareus-Damon Harrison (see above)-Corbin Bryant. They'll have to add an edge rusher to compliment Hughes, and I'm assuming an ILB tandem of Preston Brown and Vincent Rey or Jerrell Freeman (again, see above). He's been okay at times, but you can find a guy to do what he does for much less IMO. I don't think Whaley has created a mess really, I think that some guys have outlived their usefulness and don't fit the scheme. Under your scenerio Bills have to add 7 starters....that is just crazy...not that I disagree...that is the proper way to move forward...even with the extra cap space freed up it still doesn't look too promising. Roster depth is going to be an issue as well. Filling seven starting positions via FA and draft is a difficult task. Edited December 14, 2015 by BuffaloBillsForever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Under your scenerio Bills have to add 7 starters....that is just crazy...not that I disagree...that is the proper way to move forward...even with the extra cap space freed up it still doesn't look too promising. Roster depth is going to be an issue as well. Filling seven starting position via FA is a difficult task. It's only 6 starters actually, as I'm moving Bryant up to starting 5-tech opposite Dareus...nevertheless, that type of turnover omes with the territory when the coach wants to switch schemes I guess. I don't expect they'll fill 6 starting spots via FA though; I think 3 is reasonable (WR, NT, ILB). If they drat well, they should expect at least 2 starters out of their 7 picks next year. Also worth nothing that they'll get depth players like Wynn, Powell, and Steward back next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilton Bills Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Who cares. We suck. If we couldn't win with this line up, we're not going to win with the new new and improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Who cares. We suck. If we couldn't win with this line up, we're not going to win with the new new and improved. Thank you for your contribution. I would say, however, that it's better placed in one of the many "we suck" threads that you can easily find on the front page of this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Hasn't Lawson play well this year? He is the type of player Rex likes. Unless Lawson's agent way over values him, he will be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanM.D. Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's only 6 starters actually, as I'm moving Bryant up to starting 5-tech opposite Dareus...nevertheless, that type of turnover omes with the territory when the coach wants to switch schemes I guess. I don't expect they'll fill 6 starting spots via FA though; I think 3 is reasonable (WR, NT, ILB). If they drat well, they should expect at least 2 starters out of their 7 picks next year. Also worth nothing that they'll get depth players like Wynn, Powell, and Steward back next year. thanks for the OP. It's good to see a realistic, albeit hypothetical, run at the cap. I like your moves as outlined but think Kyle is back. His knee injury was not 'that bad.' (at least from the view my laptop provides) He had a partial PCL tear and then a subsequent cartilage injury. I think he will work incredibly hard and come back as a sound contributor. In that light, I think we'll get more value out of him at his contract rate than we'd likely find on the street/draft. I also wonder where Taylor fits in. With a year left on his deal, do you think they do a deal this offseason along with drafting the 'developmental' guy as you noted? Personally, I'd try to get a larger sample size to evaluate him. He's been way better than I thought he'd be but a premature commitment could really make a mess of our cap. I'd roll the dice and let him get another offseason as 'the guy' and, if all goes well, move to sign him in middle of next season. Could cost more but there's less risk. I also think a guy like Taylor would be 'itching' for that first big deal and willing to sign a 'fair market' (middle of the pack) deal at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillsForever Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's only 6 starters actually, as I'm moving Bryant up to starting 5-tech opposite Dareus...nevertheless, that type of turnover omes with the territory when the coach wants to switch schemes I guess. I don't expect they'll fill 6 starting spots via FA though; I think 3 is reasonable (WR, NT, ILB). If they drat well, they should expect at least 2 starters out of their 7 picks next year. Also worth nothing that they'll get depth players like Wynn, Powell, and Steward back next year. I'm down with this plan. Likely some short term pain involved but that's OK. The circumstances dictate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 20M won't cover the loss of Kyle Williams or Mario Williams. Where is the pass rush? The loss of pass rush from Mario WIlliams? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebandit27 Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 He is the type of player Rex likes. Unless Lawson's agent way over values him, he will be back. He's under contract, but at a definite starter's cap hit of $3.4M. He'll need to renegotiate to stay IMO. thanks for the OP. It's good to see a realistic, albeit hypothetical, run at the cap. I like your moves as outlined but think Kyle is back. His knee injury was not 'that bad.' (at least from the view my laptop provides) He had a partial PCL tear and then a subsequent cartilage injury. I think he will work incredibly hard and come back as a sound contributor. In that light, I think we'll get more value out of him at his contract rate than we'd likely find on the street/draft. I also wonder where Taylor fits in. With a year left on his deal, do you think they do a deal this offseason along with drafting the 'developmental' guy as you noted? Personally, I'd try to get a larger sample size to evaluate him. He's been way better than I thought he'd be but a premature commitment could really make a mess of our cap. I'd roll the dice and let him get another offseason as 'the guy' and, if all goes well, move to sign him in middle of next season. Could cost more but there's less risk. I also think a guy like Taylor would be 'itching' for that first big deal and willing to sign a 'fair market' (middle of the pack) deal at that point. I think that, when it comes to Kyle, they'll take the Belichick approach that it's better to let a guy go one year too soon than one year too late. They can save $6.5M against the cap with his release, and he's not a great fit for what they want to do defensively. My opinion on the QB situation is that you go into next year with Tyrod atop the depth chart, and you add a guy like Brandon Doughty in the 2nd-4th round to develop behind him. I'm not wild about any QB other than Goff, and Doughty shows the best blend of quick decision-making, accuracy, athleticism, and arm strength that I've seen of the rest (again, IMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Mario would make more sense to restructure, only saving a few million dollars by cutting him versus restructuring and then still have to replace him. Clay will be restructured taking a $10 million roster bonus and converting it to a signing bonus which will save 7.5 million on the cap next year. Mckelvin will get cut saving 3.9 million Carpenter might be on the block also... Aaron Williams might not retire. If he does we will take a hit for the rest of his signing bonus next year mitigating any cap savings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Spotrac now has a new roster management tool that is extremely useful when looking at next year's cap situation. Try it yourself: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roster/buffalo-bills/ Here's what I did: Released Mario Williams Kyle Williams Aaron Williams (retirement) Leodis McKelvin Manny Lawson Dan Carpenter Boobie Dixon Savings against the cap - $32.675M Assuming the cap will be $150M (in actuality it'll be a bit higher), that puts the team at $33M under the cap. I didn't want to touch Clay's deal, as leaving it alone provides a lot more space down the road. Re-sign Cordy Glenn - 5 years, $35M with $11M gtd (same contract as Jared Veldheer got from Arizona; neither has made the pro bowl, but both are bona fide starting LTs). Assume cap hit of $8M in year 1. Richie Incognito - 5 years, $25M with $8M gtd (close to Clint Boling's deal in Cincinnati; less money due to age). Assume cap hit of $5M in year 1. Stephon Gilmore - 5 years, $55M with $30M gtd (more than Byron Maxwell, less than Joe Haden). Assume $11M cap hit in year 1 (same as his rookie contract option year cap hit). Do Not Re-sign Nigel Bradham - down year and not a great fit for this defense Alex Carrington - too many injuries and too many guys that can play his role; also getting Jarius Wynn back from injury makes him expendable The above leaves the Bills $20M under the cap to add some pieces in FA. Thoughts? I find this tool to be both soothing and cleansing. I lopped off $31.8 million; I kept Lawson, who is a pretty good fit and is actually playing decently. I don't think he's a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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