Jump to content

What the Models Predict for the Rest of the Season


CodeMonkey

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 49
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

 

Right, I'm reading the other thread where Lunatic P. Crazy is suggesting that we start EJ against Miami because it'll be way different this time. I'm all for collective delusion (I'm Buffalo through and through) but enough is enough. We're turning into the Anabaptists at Munster.

Holy cow! Here's a link to a wonderful Dan Carlin "Hardcore History" Podcast (for free) on this precise piece of history. Highly recommended.

 

http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-48-prophets-of-doom/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Holy cow! Here's a link to a wonderful Dan Carlin "Hardcore History" Podcast (for free) on this precise piece of history. Highly recommended.

 

http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-48-prophets-of-doom/

 

Yup, that's exactly where I got this from... his descriptions of the people as they slowly starved and lost their minds (perhaps because of ergotism!) sounds a lot like this place after 16 years of repeated beatings

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Disagree with you. We're built to play with anybody. We haven't been healthy, and have dug ourselves into some early holes. We have a bye week at a pretty good time. Time to get healthy, and start correcting the errors.

 

Not saying were going to win out or anything, but i don't see why the bills can't hover around .500. The difference between 7-9 and 9-7 isnt THAT big.

 

this isn't training camp; the errors and penalties are a reflection of Rex as a poor HC: terrible self-discipline, playing with too much emotion/playing dumb, substandard tackling, giving up too much cushion to WRs at the LOS, giving up critical 1st down conversions on 3rd & long, terrible ST penalties, etc etc. I could go on, but you get the picture. Rex had to be called out after 6 games by his DL for his crappy scheme which has been neutering the talent of the front 4. I hate to say it but all these things may not be correctable over a bye week. It's a cultural problem which seems to be a hallmark of Rex's teams.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets.

  • I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that.
  • Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo.
  • Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win.
  • Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal
  • Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC

 

Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year

If I were an optimist, I would point out that with a health Tyrod, Watkins, McCoy, and Harvin, our O was pretty darn good. Why couldn't our team turn it around once heeled?

 

(FWIW I dont think we will turn it around, I think our main problem is our D and OL. Neither of which I see being fixed this year.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Bills will finish the season with an 8-1 record (no doubt at least 7-2).

 

This bye comes at the perfect time to reset this team's collective head straight and for everyone to get healthy again. I just don't buy into all of the doomed and negative stuff this time around. I see the first part of the season as them getting all of the bad stuff out of their system before they hit their stride and become the playoff bound team we all thought they were going to be.

 

They won that Jags game and the refs screwed them out of it. I'm already done hearing about how much EJ sucks or how bad Rex is or Whaley or the defense. They won that game. They will have two whole weeks to stew over it and take out their anger on their division opponents coming up on the schedule. This team showed me they have fight in them.

I appreciate your support and optimistic view on the Bills. They are too banged up, disorganized (look at individual break downs) and under coached. IF everything goes right, they MIGHT go 9-7. Realistic view is 7-9.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season.

 

FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all.

 

Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season.

 

SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs.

 

The Senator Model: 16 and 4 baby ...

 

 

I'd like to add... The Models predict the TSW Poster Dorquemada will be doing something better on Sunday afternoons

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What in the performance of the Bills so far makes anyone believe they will win another game this season? Using the Blind Squirrel rule, I suppose they will inexplicably stumble into a win, maybe even two. But weighing the mess Rex has created against the schedule, would anyone really be surprised if they go 0-9?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season.

 

FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all.

 

Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season.

 

SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs.

 

The Senator Model: 16 and 4 baby ...

 

How the models are doing for the season so far:

 

 

Looks about right...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets.

  • I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that.
  • Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo.

This seems wildly pessimistic. They will run over us even if they don't have Romo? They haven't won a game without him and even with him they should have lost week 1.

 

But I will say I think we are a 7-9 to 8-8 team. May depend on when we get TT back and if we can get other key players healthy down the stretch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What in the performance of the Bills so far makes anyone believe they will win another game this season? Using the Blind Squirrel rule, I suppose they will inexplicably stumble into a win, maybe even two. But weighing the mess Rex has created against the schedule, would anyone really be surprised if they go 0-9?

Yes I would be. I can see them being anywhere from 7-9 to 10-6. The only game I count as a sure loss is NE (unless Brady doesn't play for some unknown reason).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://www.giselebundchen.com.br/

 

 

this isn't training camp; the errors and penalties are a reflection of Rex as a poor HC: terrible self-discipline, playing with too much emotion/playing dumb, substandard tackling, giving up too much cushion to WRs at the LOS, giving up critical 1st down conversions on 3rd & long, terrible ST penalties, etc etc. I could go on, but you get the picture. Rex had to be called out after 6 games by his DL for his crappy scheme which has been neutering the talent of the front 4. I hate to say it but all these things may not be correctable over a bye week. It's a cultural problem which seems to be a hallmark of Rex's teams.

you are probably correct there is too much to overcome. But i have to bet Bills come out swinging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What in the performance of the Bills so far makes anyone believe they will win another game this season? Using the Blind Squirrel rule, I suppose they will inexplicably stumble into a win, maybe even two. But weighing the mess Rex has created against the schedule, would anyone really be surprised if they go 0-9?

We're still 3-2 with Tyrod. Why are you expecting 0-9?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...