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Grantland predicts Bills to be a cellar dweller in 2015


YoloinOhio

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EVERY player in the history of the league is aging. McCoy is 27.

I will grant you this: maybe the trend is away from the "running back is a very young man's game?" Leading rushers last year (total rushing yards) and age:

 

1. Murray 26

2. Bell 22

3. McCoy 26

4. Lynch 28

5. Forsett 29

6. Foster 28 ...

9. Gore 31

 

But still ... Gore is the only guy 30+ in the top 18 rushers last year. I feel pretty good about McCoy (and Murray) for the next year or two, but have no expectation that they'll contribute much beyond that.

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I wish this were going to be the case, but history is just against us on this. Even with the best defensive front fours that he's had, he's blitzed a lot. I'm not really optimistic that that won't continue.

I forget which article it was, but a recent one about Rex's schemes talks a lot about how he blitzes less than you'd think -- or at least isn't rigid in how he applies pressure to opposing teams. With Darby in there I expect the bills to blitz less against Indy than later in the year when the secondary is (hopefully) 100%.

 

It'll be interesting to see how this defense works under Rex. I expect it to be stout against the run above all else.

I will grant you this: maybe the trend is away from the "running back is a very young man's game?" Leading rushers last year (total rushing yards) and age:

 

1. Murray 26

2. Bell 22

3. McCoy 26

4. Lynch 28

5. Forsett 29

6. Foster 28 ...

9. Gore 31

 

But still ... Gore is the only guy 30+ in the top 18 rushers last year. I feel pretty good about McCoy (and Murray) for the next year or two, but have no expectation that they'll contribute much beyond that.

I hear what you're saying and of course you're right that there is a "wall" most RBs hit at 30. That's certainly true. However the Bills have three years with McCoy before he hits that wall. He could hit it sooner -- that's the argument a lot of people are making now that he's a Bill, it wasn't one being made when he was in philly -- I just don't think you can predict it.

 

The team made the move because they expect to be contenders within that two to three year window. With this roster it's tough to argue with that logic. Windows are short in the NFL. Karlos is the future, Shady is the present.

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His "points" aren't even logical points.

 

They will do worse than last year

 

- because they cut Fred Jackson?

- because 2 1st round picks was too much for Watkins?

- because EJ is a bust?

- because 2 seasons ago they were going to start Kolb?

 

How does any of that drop them from 2nd to 4th in a year?

 

His argument wasn't based in anything real - ultimately it was really more an argument of "I don't like the Bills' decisions lately"... Not really the same thing at all, particularly since all but the cutting of Fred were true already last year.

 

To say this guy made no sense is generous.

 

 

How in Hades does the "best defense in football" and a "competent offense" equal only 10-6???

 

This is what is bugging me about the intellectual inconsistency (dishonesty, flat-out laziness?) of nearly every national media buffoon.

 

All pre-season we heard from multiple national sources "the Bills have the best or nearly the best team 21/22 positions - if only they had decent QB play they'd be a playoff team looking to go deep. Now they have a QB solution that's almost certainly better than what they were expected to have when those comments were made, and somehow they're back to be 9-7 or worse?

What bothers me is that you act like 10-6 is somehow bad. When was the last time we were 10-6? How in Hades do you honestly expect any objective person who doesn't reside in Buffalo to predict that the Bills go 12-4 or 11-5 with a QB like Taylor? You know who goes 12-4/11-5 in the NFL? Teams with QBs named Brady Rodgers or Manning or Rapelessburger.

 

It's going to be almost impossible for our defense to be much better than last season. We can't possibly expect Taylor to set the world on fire. And our schedule appears a bit tougher this season than last, though that will remain to be seen. 10-6 with a playoff birth? I'll sign up for that right now with a smile on my face.

 

Only a handful of teams in nfl get more than 11 wins usually. No reason to get offended by 10-6.

Edited by bobobonators
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What bothers me is that you act like 10-6 is somehow bad. When was the last time we were 10-6? How in Hades do you honestly expect any objective person who doesn't reside in Buffalo to predict that the Bills go 12-4 or 11-5 with a QB like Taylor? You know who goes 12-4/11-5 in the NFL? Teams with QBs named Brady Rodgers or Manning or Rapelessburger.

 

It's going to be almost impossible for our defense to be much better than last season. We can't possibly expect Taylor to set the world on fire. And our schedule appears a bit tougher this season than last, though that will remain to be seen. 10-6 with a playoff birth? I'll sign up for that right now with a smile on my face.

 

Only a handful of teams in the league get 11 wins or better usually. No reason to get offended by 10-6.

Agreed. That's my thinking. 10-6 is really good, particularly in this division. Only 9 teams won more than 10 games last year. Objectively I think the Bills project as an 8-8 team. I think they'll do better, but 12-4? That seems like a pipe dream.

Edited by The Frankish Reich
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As the league zigs in one direction — treating first-round picks like precious manna and running backs like relatively replaceable assets — the Bills are zagging the other way with little evidence that they’re wise to do so.

 

 

He ain't wrong.

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He ain't wrong.

Defensive starters inherited by Whaley

 

Dareus, Gilmore, M. Williams. A. Williams, K. Anderson, J.Hughes, N. Bradham, Manny Lawson

 

Defensive starters added by Whaley:

 

Robey, Graham, Darby,

 

Whaley is just a guy who is a GM. He has exhibited no particular expertise at bringing in top notch talent. He is the most over rated part of the Bills.

 

Even the Bills additions this year on offense, Incognito and Taylor are Rex Ryan adds, not Whaley adds.

 

Whaley owns the wide receivers and McCoy. The rest of the team is not really his doing.

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Defensive starters inherited by Whaley

 

Dareus, Gilmore, M. Williams. A. Williams, K. Anderson, J.Hughes, N. Bradham, Manny Lawson

 

Defensive starters added by Whaley:

 

Robey, Graham, Darby,

 

Whaley is just a guy who is a GM. He has exhibited no particular expertise at bringing in top notch talent. He is the most over rated part of the Bills.

 

Even the Bills additions this year on offense, Incognito and Taylor are Rex Ryan adds, not Whaley adds.

 

Whaley owns the wide receivers and McCoy. The rest of the team is not really his doing.

 

Wasn't Whaley Buddy's right hand man for three years, when most of those players were acquired?

 

Umm, yes...yes he was. But please continue.

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Wasn't Whaley Buddy's right hand man for three years, when most of those players were acquired?

 

Umm, yes...yes he was. But please continue.

So your saying Whaley has been fully engaged since 2010, with one winning season and is also responsible and the QB debacle, and the failed coaching hires of Gailey, and Marrone. Not really a compelling track record either.

Edited by PlayoffsPlease
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So your saying Whaley has been fully engaged since 2010, with one winning season and is also responsible and the QB debacle, and the failed coaching hires. Not really a compelling track record either.

 

Keep moving the finish line. The current roster is what it is, largely because of Whaley.

Edited by eball
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Defensive starters inherited by Whaley

 

Dareus, Gilmore, M. Williams. A. Williams, K. Anderson, J.Hughes, N. Bradham, Manny Lawson

 

Defensive starters added by Whaley:

 

Robey, Graham, Darby,

 

Whaley is just a guy who is a GM. He has exhibited no particular expertise at bringing in top notch talent. He is the most over rated part of the Bills.

 

Even the Bills additions this year on offense, Incognito and Taylor are Rex Ryan adds, not Whaley adds.

 

Whaley owns the wide receivers and McCoy. The rest of the team is not really his doing.

 

This is absurd on nearly every level.

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The Bills finished 2nd in the division last year. They added:

 

McCoy

2 Guards

Harvin

Clay

Taylor

Rex & Roman

 

 

They lost:

Freddy

Alonso...but not really from 2014 as he wasn't here then either.

Greggo Marrone & Hackett

Orton

 

I've probably missed some stuff here and there but at a basic level how does a 2nd place team with those additions/subtractions became a 4th place team?

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The Bills finished 2nd in the division last year. They added:

 

McCoy

2 Guards

Harvin

Clay

Taylor

Rex & Roman

 

 

They lost:

Freddy

Alonso...but not really from 2014 as he wasn't here then either.

Greggo Marrone & Hackett

Orton

 

I've probably missed some stuff here and there but at a basic level how does a 2nd place team with those additions/subtractions became a 4th place team?

 

fRsQprF.gif

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The Bills finished 2nd in the division last year. They added:

 

McCoy

2 Guards

Harvin

Clay

Taylor

Rex & Roman

 

 

They lost:

Freddy

Alonso...but not really from 2014 as he wasn't here then either.

Greggo Marrone & Hackett

Orton

 

I've probably missed some stuff here and there but at a basic level how does a 2nd place team with those additions/subtractions became a 4th place team?

 

I used to read a lot of Grantland so I'm familiar with Barnwell. He will always be the guy who tried to explain, using analytics, how momentum in football doesn't exist. That should tell you all you need to know about him. He would make a great programmer, not a scout of talent, and certainly not a people person.

 

Ever since he joined he has avoided talking about the Bills when possible, and talks negatively when he has to. Bills have been bad, but I could find good things to say about the Jaguars and I wouldn't even be trying to "see both sides". He doesn't do that. In fact, he tends to spin positives into negatives. He's a smarty pants, radical center version of Jerry Sullivan. Both think they're smarter than everybody and know everything.

 

I read his piece. Everything he said could be spun into a positive if he wanted to. The O-line could be seen as a positive. The defense remaining the same in the transient NFL could be seen as a positive. Tyrod Taylor's explosive abilities compared to Orton could be seen as a positive. And like you said above, the additions and minimal subtractions could be seen as positives. So everything negative he pointed out, could be spun equally as a positive. The sense I got reading the piece was of a person trying to bring down my vibe. Screw that guy.

 

I have a couple questions for Barnwell:

1. How many entire Bills game did you watch last year?

2. How many Bills preseason games have you watched this year?

 

Unless he's seen over 50% of each, I refuse to hear what he has to say.

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Defensive starters inherited by Whaley

 

Dareus, Gilmore, M. Williams. A. Williams, K. Anderson, J.Hughes, N. Bradham, Manny Lawson

 

Defensive starters added by Whaley:

 

Robey, Graham, Darby,

 

Whaley is just a guy who is a GM. He has exhibited no particular expertise at bringing in top notch talent. He is the most over rated part of the Bills.

 

Even the Bills additions this year on offense, Incognito and Taylor are Rex Ryan adds, not Whaley adds.

 

Whaley owns the wide receivers and McCoy. The rest of the team is not really his doing.

Your facts checker was obviously away on holidays when you wrote this.

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