Top 3 defenses, w/o a top 10 QB results in the 21st century

[johnwalter]

Interesting, but, I am just guessing the results would be as close as the original filter.

 

i disagree: i think bottom-10 QB vs bottom-22 QB are significantly different.

bottom 10 is a much more realistic expectation for our group.

[boyst]

great work, thought provoking.

[Dragonborn10]

I'm not trying to be negative. Honestly I'm not. But it is possible the Bills might only have the third best defense in the division. That still might be third best in the league! Of course it all matters in how you rank a defense.

 

AFC East will be crazy this year. 10-6 will likely win the division with no team better than 4-2 in the division.

 

In response to the topic lead - yes EJ will get this team to the playoffs with this defense, this HC, and an improved OL. But it is the OL not the QB or defense that will make or break this season.

[purple haze]

not good as in 1 out of 100? more like 4 out of 100! so you're saying there's a chance!!!

 

can we create a robo-qb that has Taylor's athleticism, Manuel's size, and Cassel's intelligence? if anyone has the money to do it it's Pegula

All 3 QB's are intelligent. EJ is somewhat athletic too. Cassell has very good size. He looks the part, same as EJ. They all know what to do. They just can't do it consistently. I think the QB we need to have made is one with accuracy. None of them are accurate enough often enough and it makes me kick rocks down the road. LoL.

 

I'm hoping this scrimmage Saturday is a coming out party for one of them at least.

Edited August 6, 2015 by purple haze

[Kemp]

I love the grasping at straws threads.

 

The Bills don't have an NFL-caliber starting QB, let alone the 11th best one.

 

They might make the playoffs, anyway, but I think the Jets will finish ahead of them.

[BreezeMafia]

I think of the 2007 Giants and 2012 Ravens as models for what the Bills could be. Manning and Flacco were not good those years but had great playoff runs capped with SB wins. I don't think either of those defenses qualified as a top 3 but they were certainly a strength.

Disagree on Flacco. He had a better than average year in 2012, then got very, very hot in December when former OC Cam Cameron was fired. I felt that year and also in 2011 Cam Cameron was Flacco's biggest issue. Flacco then went on to beat - Eli Manning, Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and finally Colin Kap.

[Webster Guy]

 

Another not insignificant factor is the division you play in. Some years 8-8 or even 7-9 teams get in from weak divisions. In a smallish sample size that can distort things.

Great point. Thats why i personally hate the entire division concept. Should be random every year, especially if the league is seeking parity.

 

Seeing a team with a losing record make the playoffs when other teams with as much as 11 wins miss out is ridiculous.

[bonechiller]

One team won the Superbowl....

 

SO!, you are saying there is a chance !!!

[BuffaloHokie13]

I think our QB will rank 19th. Book it.

[Juice_32]

I love the grasping at straws threads.

The Bills don't have an NFL-caliber starting QB, let alone the 11th best one.

They might make the playoffs, anyway, but I think the Jets will finish ahead of them.

Fitz and Geno are anywhere near 11th? Or do you just think their D will be that much better than ours? I'm confused.

Edited August 6, 2015 by Juice_32

[Luxy312]

I think Bills fans generally believe the team has an excellent chance to have a top 3 defense this year. I also think fan consensus is that the Bills are unlikely to have a top 10 QB this year.

 

For this study, I begin with the 2001 season. I define top 10 QBs as the the top 10 highest passer ratings each season. And I am defining top 3 defenses based on yards per played allowed.

 

There is no perfect one stat for QB or for team defense, but those are what I chose as being fairly good.

 

Since the 2001 season there have been 25 teams who had a top 3 defense and did not have a top 10 QB

 

8 of those teams (32%) missed the playoffs.

4 of those teams (16%) lost a wild card game

3 of those teams (12%) lost a divisional playoff game

7 of those teams (28%) lost a conference championship game

2 of those teams (8%) lost the super bowl

1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl

 

Clearly there is a difference between having the 11th best QB and the 32nd best QB.

 

But based on the arbitrary 10th ranked cut off, this century, if you have a top 3 defense you have 40% chance of advancing to the championship game, a 32% chance of finishing out of the playoffs, and a 28% chance of finishing somewhere in between.

 

Excellent work and good use of more than just singular observations!

[Mr. WEO]

I think Bills fans generally believe the team has an excellent chance to have a top 3 defense this year. I also think fan consensus is that the Bills are unlikely to have a top 10 QB this year.

 

For this study, I begin with the 2001 season. I define top 10 QBs as the the top 10 highest passer ratings each season. And I am defining top 3 defenses based on yards per played allowed.

 

There is no perfect one stat for QB or for team defense, but those are what I chose as being fairly good.

 

Since the 2001 season there have been 25 teams who had a top 3 defense and did not have a top 10 QB

 

8 of those teams (32%) missed the playoffs.

4 of those teams (16%) lost a wild card game

3 of those teams (12%) lost a divisional playoff game

7 of those teams (28%) lost a conference championship game

2 of those teams (8%) lost the super bowl

1 of those teams (4%) won the super bowl

 

Clearly there is a difference between having the 11th best QB and the 32nd best QB.

 

But based on the arbitrary 10th ranked cut off, this century, if you have a top 3 defense you have 40% chance of advancing to the championship game, a 32% chance of finishing out of the playoffs, and a 28% chance of finishing somewhere in between.

 

Good stuff. But I was wondering why you chose yards per play allowed as opposedd to points allowed. In the last 2 years alone, you there have been teams in the top 3 in YPPA that were 16th (Broncos 2014) and 23rd (Browns 2013) in points allowed.

[John from Riverside]

I love the grasping at straws threads.

 

The Bills don't have an NFL-caliber starting QB, let alone the 11th best one.

 

They might make the playoffs, anyway, but I think the Jets will finish ahead of them.

I am curious as to why you think this......not knocking your opinion....just curious

[Cash]

Great analysis - thanks! I certainly am not alone in being bummed that we appear 3(!) times on the list already, and could be headed for a fourth. But it's good to know that at least there is a realistic chance, even with all our QBs being what they are, that we could make the playoffs.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Took the list further. Top 3 yards per play + top 10 in sacks. Eliminated 7 teams. Funny thing I notice, the worse your QB rating is the better your chances are making the playoffs.

 

12/18 made playoffs.

15/18 had winning records

 

9 finished top 5 sacks:

6/9 made playoffs

8/9 had winning records

 

8 had #1 QBs finish 24th or worse in QB rating:

6/8 made playoffs

 

Rank is qb rating of QB to start most games.. Red missed playoffs.

 

2014 Bills (9-7) (Top 5 sacks) - 19th

2013 Bengals - 15th

2012 Bears (10-6) - 20th

2011 Ravens (Top 5 sacks) - 18th

2010 Jets - 27th

2008 Eagles (Top 5 sacks) - 14th

2008 Steelers (Top 5 sacks) - 24th

2006 Ravens (Top 5 sacks) - 14th

2006 Bears - 24th

2005 Panthers - 12th

2005 Bears - 34th

2004 Bills (9-7) (Top 5 sacks) - 25th

2004 Redskins (6-10) - 31st

2003 Ravens (Top 5 sacks) - 31st

2003 Bills (6-10) - 21st

2002 Panthers (7-9) (Top 5 sacks) - 22nd

2001 Steelers (Top 5 sacks) - 12th

2001 Ravens - 27th

Edited August 6, 2015 by TheTruthHurts

[reddogblitz]

2012 Bears (10-6) - 20th

 

 

Cutty was 20th? But he's a franchise QB!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

What I learned is if you have a top 3 defense and top 10 pass rush it doesnt matter what your QB does, your chances of playoffs are very high.

[reddogblitz]

What I learned is if you have a top 3 defense and top 10 pass rush it doesnt matter what your QB does, your chances of playoffs are very high.

 

How can Bills fans possibly not know that a strong D with a good run/ball control offense with an average QB can win a Super Bowl? Even if the other team has a "franchise QB" (HOF).

Edited August 6, 2015 by reddogblitz

[Kelly the Dog]

I've said it before, I think our ceiling is a first round wild card victory due to the below average QBs, but great defense and stacked roster altogether. Our low is probably around 7 to 8 wins if our offense is awful.

I understand how injuries happen, things fall apart, kicks are missed or made at the end of games, that affect records. But I really don't understand the idea that our offense is going to be awful and we are going to win 7 games when we won 9 last year with absolutely horrible coaching, a terrible OL, no TE, no healthy RB, and this year we added Roman, Shady, Felton, Harvin, and Clay. Those are tremendous upgrades regardless of crappy QB play which we got last year.

[All_Pro_Bills]

I take it to a much simpler level on defense which is point allowed per game. The Bills were 4th last year at 18.1 points per game. I'm sure there's a high correlation between a top 10 scoring offense and a top 10 QB and that is certainly a valid stat. The Bills ranked 18th at 21.4 points per game which is a differential of +3.3. I think the point differential tells a pretty interesting story.

 

The other teams with a positive differential were AFC, NE 9.7, Miami .9, Pitt 4.3, Cinn 1.3, Balt 5.6, Ind 5.6, Houston 4.1, Denver 8, KC 4.5. The NFC Dallas 7.2, Phil 4.6, GB 8.6, Detroit 2.4, Seattle 8.8, Ariz .7. The Panthers made it to the playoffs with a -2.2 only because the entire division had losing records.

 

The final 4 in the AFC were NE, Denver, Ind, and Baltimore which happen to be the top 4 in this category. So the question to me about the 2015 Bills is this. Can the defense be marginally better and allow a couple points less and can the offense be a even just slightly more effective in converting one of those FG's from 2014 into a TD in 2015 to get the team into the 5 to 7 point differential level which implies a playoff level complete team?

Edited August 6, 2015 by All_Pro_Bills