Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 There have been a plethora of posts exclaiming how we should "bring in" young QB X,Y, or Z to "compete" with EJ. Or we should bring in QB V because he's known to be all that. Many QB in question are still under contract to the teams that drafted them, in some cases for multiple years. Most of them (including some FA) are their teams' best choice at QB currently. While that doesn't mean they might not be available through trade, it does suggest that the team is going to want a comparable impact player or enough high-round draft choices to acquire an impact player (eg we aren't going to get him for a "late round" pick and an aging cornerback - more like a 2nd and 3rd, or a 3rd and Marcel Dareus or Kiko Alonso). If we're going to give up something rally good, football wisdom suggests we do so only if we have confidence that QB is a clear upgrade. Here are the stats of all QB drafted in the first 4 rounds since 2011. I have highlighted the QB most frequently mentioned as "let's bring in X to compete". A few QB with minimal playing time are listed across the bottom. Before another "Lets bring in Foles and Glennon to compete with EJ" thread, I hope people will look at the actual performance stats - follow it back to pro-football-reference whence I sourced the data, get down in the game logs, and think about whether this is a genuine "known factor" improvement, or did you happen to see a good game and there must have been counterpoint not-so-good games to give those overall stats? Because EJ, whether or not some want to admit it, has had good games and shown flashes too. Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris heff Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The only highlighted guy on that list I would bother with is Foles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 There have been a plethora of posts exclaiming how we should "bring in" young QB X,Y, or Z to "compete" with EJ. Or we should bring in QB V because he's known to be all that. Many QB in question are still under contract to the teams that drafted them, in some cases for multiple years. Most of them (including some FA) are their teams' best choice at QB currently. While that doesn't mean they might not be available through trade, it does suggest that the team is going to want a comparable impact player or enough high-round draft choices to acquire an impact player (eg we aren't going to get him for a "late round" pick and an aging cornerback - more like a 2nd and 3rd, or a 3rd and Marcel Dareus or Kiko Alonso). If we're going to give up something rally good, football wisdom suggests we do so only if we have confidence that QB is a clear upgrade. Here are the stats of all QB drafted in the first 4 rounds since 2011. I have highlighted the QB most frequently mentioned as "let's bring in X to compete". A few QB with minimal playing time are listed across the bottom. Before another "Lets bring in Foles and Glennon to compete with EJ" thread, I hope people will look at the actual performance stats - follow it back to pro-football-reference whence I sourced the data, get down in the game logs, and think about whether this is a genuine "known factor" improvement, or did you happen to see a good game and there must have been counterpoint not-so-good games to give those overall stats? Because EJ, whether or not some want to admit it, has had good games and shown flashes too. Have fun! I think some people react to seeing a SportsCenter highlight of a QB throwing a TD and instantly feel that player is an improvement. That's the beauty of not paying attention to every play a player makes, like we do with our guys. We know every bad throw and decision our QBs make since OTAs. We have every flaw memorized. But all these other QBs have to be better because we don't see everything they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) I think some people react to seeing a SportsCenter highlight of a QB throwing a TD and instantly feel that player is an improvement. That's the beauty of not paying attention to every play a player makes, like we do with our guys. We know every bad throw and decision our QBs make since OTAs. We have every flaw memorized. But all these other QBs have to be better because we don't see everything they do. Well, even giving the benefit of the doubt that maybe these guys are NFL rewind subscribers addicted to the "coaches film" - it's easy to cherry-pick games. Unless one really watches every game, one doesn't get a full picture. I think there's also the well-known work aphorism that "one awshit wipes out 10 attaboys". A horrid play sticks in our memory more than 10 good ones. It's why I'm personally glad EJ got benched - once he got benched, it became easy to see that he wasn't the problem with the run game and the OL. The only highlighted guy on that list I would bother with is Foles. You honed in on the best of the "2nd tier" guys, and the one who has shown the most IMO. That said - the Iggles won't be giving him away. The market for a capable QB is strong, he has value to them as a backup even if they do want to go for Mariota, and he's signed through 2015 at a modest contract considering what he's shown. So if you think we should go after him, what do you think we should be willing to give up? Edited January 9, 2015 by Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) I have said this in many other threads: I believe EJ Manuel performed as well as "most" QBs do in their first 14 games - and on a par with other QBs we could reasonably acquire this off season through free agency or trade. He severely regressed this year; however, I will not reach any conclusions about him until I see what he can do under a competent offensive coaching staff and behind a competent O line. As for other QBs. I have broken down the game logs of QBs the Bills could potentially acquire to compete with EJ. IMHO, Mike Glennon has performed the best in his opportunities and has as high a ceiling as any of them. I certainly would not mind at all if Whaley found a way to trade for him to compete with EJ. Edited January 9, 2015 by billsfan1959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) I have said this in many other threads: I believe EJ Manuel performed as well as "most" QBs do in their first 14 games - and on a par with other QBs we could reasonably acquire this off season through free agency or trade. He severely regressed this year; however, I will not reach any conclusions about him until I see what he can do under a competent offensive coaching staff and behind a competent O line. As for other QBs. I have broken down the game logs of QBs the Bills could potentially acquire to compete with EJ. IMHO, Mike Glennon has performed the best in his opportunities and has as high a ceiling as any of them. I certainly would not mind at all if Whaley found a way to trade for him to compete with EJ. OK, please ignore that thumping sound - it's just my head hitting the nearest wall. Better now. I'll try one more time. I agree, Glennon is promising. Glennon is signed for 2 more years and costs ~ 1/10th as much as their this year's QB, now FA McCown. He's currently the only decent QB on their roster. (Correction: it was pointed out to me McCown is not a FA, he's signed through 2015 for $5.2M with apparently no dead money if he's cut by 1 June. So they have Glennon and McCown). IF they are willing to trade for him, what do you think they would want? Hint: a bag of footballs, a late round pick, and a decent player won't cut it. They're going to want something commensurate with the loss of a game-changing player, which is what a QB is. In addition, to replace him with a competent, NFL-proven FA backup for 2 years would cost $4-10 million. Glennon would cost them $1.2M IMO you only trade major goods (game-changing players, high round draft picks, which is what I think the market price would be IF Tampa would trade him) for a player you KNOW will contribute - not for a guy to "compete". So is what the Bills would likely have to give up "worth it" for a guy who would only "compete" with EJ, which is what I agree Glennon's stats and game film indicate he'd be doing? Edited January 10, 2015 by Hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I have said this in many other threads: I believe EJ Manuel performed as well as "most" QBs do in their first 14 games - and on a par with other QBs we could reasonably acquire this off season through free agency or trade. He severely regressed this year; however, I will not reach any conclusions about him until I see what he can do under a competent offensive coaching staff and behind a competent O line. As for other QBs. I have broken down the game logs of QBs the Bills could potentially acquire to compete with EJ. IMHO, Mike Glennon has performed the best in his opportunities and has as high a ceiling as any of them. I certainly would not mind at all if Whaley found a way to trade for him to compete with EJ. I hate how shallow I am, but I can never see Glennon being the face of a franchise. I just can't. And good work OP. Ej had a very typical rookie year. He completely outplayed Bortles, yet EJ was a reach and Bortles was a top 5 by every "expert." It's funny how people try to act like they have any idea what guys will become good pro QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homey D. Clown Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) If anyone here is holding their breath that EJ may still develop into a serviceable QB, not even a pro bowl QB... I'm just saying serviceable, I hope you like the color blue..... then I hope you like purple..... then pine boxes... stats don't always tell the whole story. Edited January 9, 2015 by Homey D. Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) Stop it. Everyone here know that EJ is terrible. He has never thrown a quality pass in his life. Any completions were either dumb luck or brilliant catches by his wideouts. Every other QB who has ever thrown a pass is better than EJ and any coach worth hiring will not take the job as long as EJ is on the roster. Edited January 9, 2015 by Maddog69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 OK, please ignore that thumping sound - it's just my head hitting the nearest wall. Better now. I'll try one more time. I agree, Glennon is promising. Glennon is signed for 2 more years and costs ~ 1/10th as much as their this year's QB, now FA McCown. He's currently the only decent QB on their roster. IF they are willing to trade for him, what do you think they would want? Hint: a bag of footballs, a late round pick, and a decent player won't cut it. They're going to want something commensurate with the loss of a game-changing player, which is what a QB is. In addition, to replace him with a competent, NFL-proven FA backup for 2 years would cost $4-10 million. Glennon would cost them $1.2M IMO you only trade major goods (game-changing players, high round draft picks, which is what I think the market price would be IF Tampa would trade him) for a player you KNOW will contribute - not for a guy to "compete". So is what the Bills would likely have to give up "worth it" for a guy who would only "compete" with EJ, which is what I agree Glennon's stats and game film indicate he'd be doing? No need to be sarcastic or condescending. I was only expressing my opinion, worth no more or less than anyone else's. At this point, neither one of us has any idea what it would require to obtain Glennon in a trade - and I never advocated giving up "major goods." I think that Tampa Bay will probably draft Winston or Mariotta, keep McCown, and Glennon "might" be available in a trade for a "reasonable" price. If that were the case then I wouldn't mind making the trade. In other words, if, by some chance, he would be available in a trade that would be reasonable for the Bills, I wouldn't be opposed. Again, just my humble opinion. Nothing to go hitting your head against a wall over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I hate how shallow I am, but I can never see Glennon being the face of a franchise. I just can't. And good work OP. Ej had a very typical rookie year. He completely outplayed Bortles, yet EJ was a reach and Bortles was a top 5 by every "expert." It's funny how people try to act like they have any idea what guys will become good pro QBs. No, that was Bridgewater, who was the last pick in the 1st round IIRC. Bortles was all over the draft board. And I find it very likely the only team who thought so highly of him was Jax. Jus tlike Buffalo and EJ. It only takes 1 team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I am ok with giving up draft picks for a QB......you gotta continue to try to improve the position..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 We should try to acquire pick #199 every year and always pick a QB. It worked once, it is guaranteed to work again, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 No, that was Bridgewater, who was the last pick in the 1st round IIRC. Bortles was all over the draft board. And I find it very likely the only team who thought so highly of him was Jax. Jus tlike Buffalo and EJ. It only takes 1 team. You need to check your facts again. By draft time, Bortles was a slam dunk top 10 pick. Bridgewater was barely in the 1st if he was there at all. Johnny Hobbit was all over the place. We should try to acquire pick #199 every year and always pick a QB. It worked once, it is guaranteed to work again, right? Why the hell did the Bills draft Leif Larsen over Brady? I knew Brady was going to be this good!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) It's EJM, and/or draft a guy that will take at least 2 years to develop. In other words, it's EJM. There MIGHT be a guy that's been developing on another teams bench, that can come here cheap, and surprise us, but that is like hitting the lottery. There are probably some fans of other teams that look at our own EJM as that kind of guy. "Yeah, Buffalo might let Manuel go for cheap, and I thought he looked pretty good, but their coach/o-line/running game sucked. The ______ (Rams, Cardinals, Bucs, Jags, Titans, Texans...) should take a chance on him..." They gotta work on building up the offense around EJM for this next season. There really isn't a good, likely alternative. Edited January 9, 2015 by HoF Watkins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bob Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 The Bills traded down to draft EJ. The plan was for him to sit behind the veteran Kolb and learn. Kolb got injured and EJ was thrust into action as a rookie despite himself being injured for most of his rookie preseason. He was injured two more times during his rookie season. And as far as we know he's had poor coaching in Buffalo. It would be premature to write-off EJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 There have been a plethora of posts exclaiming how we should "bring in" young QB X,Y, or Z to "compete" with EJ. Or we should bring in QB V because he's known to be all that. Many QB in question are still under contract to the teams that drafted them, in some cases for multiple years. Most of them (including some FA) are their teams' best choice at QB currently. While that doesn't mean they might not be available through trade, it does suggest that the team is going to want a comparable impact player or enough high-round draft choices to acquire an impact player (eg we aren't going to get him for a "late round" pick and an aging cornerback - more like a 2nd and 3rd, or a 3rd and Marcel Dareus or Kiko Alonso). If we're going to give up something rally good, football wisdom suggests we do so only if we have confidence that QB is a clear upgrade. Here are the stats of all QB drafted in the first 4 rounds since 2011. I have highlighted the QB most frequently mentioned as "let's bring in X to compete". A few QB with minimal playing time are listed across the bottom. Before another "Lets bring in Foles and Glennon to compete with EJ" thread, I hope people will look at the actual performance stats - follow it back to pro-football-reference whence I sourced the data, get down in the game logs, and think about whether this is a genuine "known factor" improvement, or did you happen to see a good game and there must have been counterpoint not-so-good games to give those overall stats? Because EJ, whether or not some want to admit it, has had good games and shown flashes too. Have fun! so ej is good thread Stop it. Everyone here know that EJ is terrible. He has never thrown a quality pass in his life. Any completions were either dumb luck or brilliant catches by his wideouts. Every other QB who has ever thrown a pass is better than EJ and any coach worth hiring will not take the job as long as EJ is on the roster. It's EJM, and/or draft a guy that will take at least 2 years to develop. In other words, it's EJM. There MIGHT be a guy that's been developing on another teams bench, that can come here cheap, and surprise us, but that is like hitting the lottery. There are probably some fans of other teams that look at our own EJM as that kind of guy. "Yeah, Buffalo might let Manuel go for cheap, and I thought he looked pretty good, but their coach/o-line/running game sucked. The ______ (Rams, Cardinals, Bucs, Jags, Titans, Texans...) should take a chance on him..." They gotta work on building up the offense around EJM for this next season. There really isn't a good, likely alternative. EJM, that's different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beef Jerky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 (edited) Always draft QBs b.c you never know when that one guy will just get it. Garret Grayson 3rd Edited January 9, 2015 by Beef Jerky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buftex Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I think some people react to seeing a SportsCenter highlight of a QB throwing a TD and instantly feel that player is an improvement. That's the beauty of not paying attention to every play a player makes, like we do with our guys. We know every bad throw and decision our QBs make since OTAs. We have every flaw memorized. But all these other QBs have to be better because we don't see everything they do. Right...I have seen it suggested a few times here in the last few days t hat the Bill should bring in Brian Hoyer...has anyone watched this guy play, other than against the Bills? He is pretty wretched. But, hey, he isn't EJ Manuel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prickly Pete Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 so ej is good thread EJM, that's different Actually, I have always referred to him as EJM, and I have plenty of posts. Another poster started it his rookie season. EJ sounds too diminutive, and overly familiar, to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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