RichVP Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Sorry if this is shown elsewhere but I found this article particularly interesting and worthy of it's own thread. This bills sit ranked at #1 with a toxic differential of +20. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000419687/article/toxic-differential-watch-out-for-bills-texans-in-the-second-half Discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Nice stuff!! It's interesting that the explosive plays are so high with Spiller having been neutralized for most of the year. I have always been a believer that you need guys that can score from anywhere on the field. Last week was a great example of that as the Bills hit some big plays but couldn't sustain drives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Was just going to post this! Interesting analysis. We definitely get a bump thanks to that Jets game, but even without it we'd be in the top 5. The +20 is a fairly healthy lead on teams 3-32. Nice stuff!! It's interesting that the explosive plays are so high with Spiller having been neutralized for most of the year. I have always been a believer that you need guys that can score from anywhere on the field. Last week was a great example of that as the Bills hit some big plays but couldn't sustain drives. I agree. Thanks, Sammy! I like the phrase "toxic differential," as I think turnovers and explosive plays carry the biggest momentum swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ProcessAccepted Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Great post. This team is different than those who've started well and faltered. Nice to have some data to back that up. Lets keep it rolling while #22 is getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Good find. Somebody still needs to fire Hackett, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 So we should beat the Chefs! Yea! Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorkington Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not really sold on this metric, personally, but at the very least it's interesting to look at. As we saw a couple years ago, the type of extreme turnover differential we've been experiencing isn't really sustainable, generally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) Nice stuff!! It's interesting that the explosive plays are so high with Spiller having been neutralized for most of the year. I have always been a believer that you need guys that can score from anywhere on the field. Last week was a great example of that as the Bills hit some big plays but couldn't sustain drives. I have a similar belief, but mine is you need guys that can score from anywhere on the field if and only if your offense cannot sustain drives. Edited October 29, 2014 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichVP Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 The one thing to keep in mind is not every team has played 8 games as the bills have. Our current pace is very much boosted by our games against Miami and the Jets as well as our propensity to avoid big plays on the Defense. It took 8 weeks for a rushing touchdown to be scored on us and somewhere around 5 weeks before a run of 20 or more was done against us. The differential may not be as high in the second half of the season but I don't see our defense letting it fall to much lower than the pace it currently is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Ok side note but does everyone agree that old spice robot is the creepiest commercial ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichVP Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Ok side note but does everyone agree that old spice robot is the creepiest commercial ever? I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Interesting stat; thanks for posting. That said, I recommend reading this: http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/bill-james-statistical-revolution/ . Straight from the horse's mouth (he's not criticizing this stat, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Damn, I thought this was going to be a boozehound Orton thread. Nice find though. Like any good and great stat, it needs to be put into perspective, will have some outliers, but also adds greatly to discussion with new information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Grid Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Ok side note but does everyone agree that old spice robot is the creepiest commercial ever? Trivago is keeping pace...that guy wants to help you book a hotel room...then....don't ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Damn, I thought this was going to be a boozehound Orton thread. Nice find though. Like any good and great stat, it needs to be put into perspective, will have some outliers, but also adds greatly to discussion with new information. Such as a +8 for Buffalo last Sunday. Even reducing that by half, however, the Bills would still be in 2nd place overall. There's no question they are doing a very good job in the turnover and big play battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heitz Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not really sold on this metric, personally, but at the very least it's interesting to look at. As we saw a couple years ago, the type of extreme turnover differential we've been experiencing isn't really sustainable, generally speaking. Love TBD, only here can a Super Bowl winning coach say "You'd be hard-pressed to find any controllable statistical combination that has quite the same rate of predictive success." and the retort is "Not really sold on this". I found the beginning of paragraph pretty amazing: "It has long been a proven adage that if you have a plus-2 turnover advantage on your opponent, you will win the game 80 percent of the time. If you have a plus-2 explosive-play advantage, it equally leads to winning about 80 percent of the time. If you have both of those, you win close to 95 percent of the time." I'll now watch every game for our plus 2 turnovers and plus two plays of 20+ yards and will shut the TV off then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I agree. Have you seen the "creepy Rob Lowe" direct TV one yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Have you seen the "creepy Rob Lowe" direct TV one yet? I think the "socially awkward Rob Lowe" one is pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Love TBD, only here can a Super Bowl winning coach say "You'd be hard-pressed to find any controllable statistical combination that has quite the same rate of predictive success." and the retort is "Not really sold on this". I found the beginning of paragraph pretty amazing: "It has long been a proven adage that if you have a plus-2 turnover advantage on your opponent, you will win the game 80 percent of the time. If you have a plus-2 explosive-play advantage, it equally leads to winning about 80 percent of the time. If you have both of those, you win close to 95 percent of the time." I'll now watch every game for our plus 2 turnovers and plus two plays of 20+ yards and will shut the TV off then... Weren't the Vikes up +2 turnovers and 2 plays over 20 yards when we beat them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichVP Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 Have you seen the "creepy Rob Lowe" direct TV one yet? The painfully awkward Rob Lowe is pretty bad as well. "I hope it's not a girl... Or a guy." Anyway. As with all statistics and analysis that tries to turn a game into a series of numbers you can make things say what you want them to say or poke holes into it to prove a point. But the goal and use of many of these stats is to get as close to, as Brian Billick says, predictive success. This is not an end all be all stat and may not dictate how well we do the rest of the year but is certainly a nice piece to the puzzle to look at and take it for what it is. Which is the Bills being #1 in something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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