Positional Needs - November Mock

[Beerball]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a RB in the first 3 picks.

[Orton's Arm]

I only see two scenarios where it would make sense to draft a quarterback:

 

Scenario 1: the Bills think the QB they're taking will have a significantly better career than Orton's. For a QB to achieve this, he'd have to become top 10.

 

Scenario 2: The QB should offer a long-term serviceable backup.

 

My concern with Hogan is that he might fall between two stools. Not good enough to be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, but too high of a draft pick for a career backup. We don't need to use a 2nd round pick on a QB who will replicate Orton's talent level and career accomplishments. We have an Orton-like quarterback already, and he's in the prime of his career.

 

To my mind, the biggest need is the offensive line: especially RG and RT. I'd like to see both those positions labeled P2, with no other positions receiving the P2 label.

[maryland-bills-fan]

Our most immediate need is OL, but we've got 3 young guys that may yet develop and OL has a steep learning curve. Unless a great value pick drops I think we do better addressing that in FA.

 

Our least immediate need is DL but that's where I'd look to draft first (all prospects being equal) Because it's the strength of our team. Kyle Williams is getting old, Hughes may leave or play 1 more year under the tag, and you can never have too many pass rushers. With no other glaring position of need I start filling the pipeline now (unless a substantially better value exists at another position).

 

TE, S, QB, & RB would also be on my radar in no particular order. I'm looking for guys that make us better 2-5 years from now. The roster's strong enough that I don't expect a 3rd rd rookie to be an instant upgrade at any position.

 

Edit: If a top RB like Melvin Gordon fell to us in the second I might seriously consider taking him.

 

I actually am going to disagree with this about the DL need. I don't think we need to use one of our early draft picks on DL. We have the luxury of a couple more years with 3/4 of the present starters and some of the rotation guys look strong as well. We can try a couple of lower round picks on DL and look for development prospects on practice squads, free agents and roster drops. We have time to sort through a number of these guys and might devote a PS or 40man roster spot for the right development guy. We can still with a high ceiling prospect who needs some time to develop and groom the successor.

[thewildrabbit]

Offensive guard remains the biggest need after two years of allowing Levitre & Rinehart to walk for whatever reason, and the Bills need two starters. Chris Williams wouldn't be one of them, and either would Urbik or Pears. I've seen enough of a below average player falling on his face playing against the better teams.

 

 

I don't see why Orton can't be the starting QB for the next 5+ years, (that is, if he survives this season playing behind the worst O line in the game) and if that is the case there is no need for a early drafted QB. Perhaps EJ might still develop with a better OC, or picking up a 3rd-4th rounder at some point to develop. Still, I don't ever see this current OC developing any QB under any circumstances.

 

I'd say TE as the second biggest need and, hopefully with a new OC that would figure out how to use him. Has this franchise ever had a top TE in its storied history in the NFL?

 

Two top OG's alone would be enough to transform this offense into a better running, scoring team. A top TE would only enhance that offense, JMHO.

Edited October 29, 2014 by FeartheLosing

[Agent 91]

I'm soliciting Positional Needs for DraftTek's November Mock.

I use TBD's opinions exclusively to submit the Bills' needs to DraftTek here. This is what I currently would submit, and I have them in my order:

 

P2=QB. Kyle Orton looks like a short-term answer. Orton #PFF's 18th Overall, 16th pass rating, 8th Completion %, 7th NFL Rating, 6th YPA, tied for 6th-least INT, & #1 least dropped. QB has IMHO moved down to P2 level, which means the Round Two selection would be BEst Player Available between all P2s on the Big Board (best QB, RT, or OG; right now that's Kevin Hogan QB).

P2=RT. Seantrel is second to last in the NFL in PFF's rating system.

P2=OG. Urbik looks like a serviceable LG; He was 9th in 2012 among RGs. Bills now have NFL's worst RG (Pears). Seantrel can't move inside. Kujo will be a failure, Pears and Chris Williams are already failures, and Cyril needs a year of seasoning at best. We'll need one, maybe 2 OGs or OTOGs.

 

 

P3=TE. Gragg has promise, granted, and Lee Smith is a great blocker with like 12 career catches, and there's fragile Chandler...Talk me into P3?

P3=RBF. "Running Back, Featured" has 2 guys on last year of contract, with Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown looking average against the NFL's #1 rush defense (2.1 ypc).

 

P4=CB. Gilmore, had his best game as a Bills player vs the Jets. Tight coverage, INT, no penalties. McKelvin is having his best year. Once a week one of the Bills brass says "You can never have too many corners". Marrone says we have 3 good corners, and they're the reason we're getting sacks and turnovers.

P4=OC. Bills brought in Macky McPherson and tried OGs at Center in TC. Wood is good and is a leader, but he's lightest guy on the line that's the heaviest in NFL. His contract runs through the '17 season.

P4=ILB.Spikes is a temporary fix for the run defense but has no range compared to Brown playing in the middle. Spikes is rated extremely low by PFF (#56 among ILBs). We need a Hightower, Kuechly, Willis.

P4=FS, SS. We have three above-average safeties ranking 4th (AWilliams) and 14th (Searcy) among all safeties. Duke is 10th vs the run. Byrd who?

 

P6=DT43. Dareus-Charles-Williams-Bryant is just as impressive, with the possibility of 2 Pro Bowlers again. Dareus is 4th Overall, Kyle Williams 6th Overall of all 101 DT/NTs. Suh-Fairley come close at 7 and 9. However, Kyle is one of the 5 oldest on the team. Is this a P4?

P6=DE43. Williams-Wynn-Hughes-Lawson are a quartet that rank among the NFL's best (Hughes and Mario now 7th-8th among 75 DE43). That said, Schwartz loves DEs. Is this a P4?

P6=OLB43. In the last game, N. Bradham: 10 tackles, an assist, forced fumble. P. Brown 8 tackles, assist, and interception. Bradham is 6th OLB Overall in the NFL, 7th pass rushing, 5th run defense, and 2nd in QB Hits (Von Miller). Brown-Rivers at SAM and Bradham-Johnson at WILL and Alonso in the wings.

P6=FS, SS. We have three above-average safeties ranking 4th (AWilliams) and 14th (Searcy) among all safeties. Duke is 10th vs the run. Byrd who?

 

The P9s:

P9=RBC. "Running Back, Change Of Pace" is CJ Spiller. Possible that the Bills would trade him for picks, and draft his replacement or competition, but I'm betting not. What do you think?

P9=WRF. "Wide Receiver, Featured" has Sammy, Robert Woods, and maybe Mike Williams. It's unlikely they draft another young WR this coming year.

P9=WRS. "Wide Receiver, Specialized" is Marquise Goodwin. Team speed is important to Hackett, but unless you argue for better hands over more accurate throws, I think we have a good one in Goodwin.

P9=FB. Fullbacks Frank Summers and a tank-like Boobie Dixon are good for what we use FBs for in our system. One could argue picking up a late-round guy as they start coming off in RD6.

P9=LT. Cordy Glenn is approaching elite-level, with a work ethic to match. Seantrel and Kujo are at best developmental LTs. I don't expect Glenn to be kicked inside to OG (but he was at LG on PATs). Only question mark is the mystery illness.

P9=PK. Placekickers shouldn't be drafted and we have a great one.

P9=P. See above.

 

If the draft were simulated today, the Bills would be given Kevin Hogan, QB of Stanford by the DraftTek computer.

What position would you upgrade the need for and why? What would you downgrade?

Astro

 

I have seen Kyle Hundley UCLA in the second on one or 2. I didnt think he would even go in the second round. But whatever.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Agent 91

[Astrobot]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a RB in the first 3 picks.

Me neither. Two are FA, and their backups haven't shown much yet. However, they have been playing teams in the top 3 in run defense. We are about to play the Chiefs, who are 20th!

[Rob's House]

A mid to late round RB that caught my eye is Malcolm Brown out of TX. at 6' 228 lb. he's got ideal size and he looks like an NFL RB when he's got the ball.

 

 

I don't know if he'll last to our first pick, but Bud Dupree out of KY looks good at DE. He's got pretty good size, has decent pass rush moves, is effective against the run, and looks very instinctive. He'd look good in a Bills uniform.

[tombstone56]

BEFORE YOU PUT TO MUCH INTO THE DRAFT YOU NEED TO GET THRU FA , 2015 FA next year has alot of quality at og,de and olb...,myself i d rather see vet at og (boone, iupati).or a olb add like houston,,,.

i think the nucleus is there just needs some tweaking.,,.how about colt mcoy? to challenge ej and orton.. he can read a defense ,hes shown that ...if payton retires after this season then TE thomas is likely will move they are close on cap space now

.cliff avril is likely to leave seattle and he played for our DC ,but resign hughes now! even if we could add two more quality in need spots itd be a big help .

the in the draft then itd be more about finishing the team or depth ,

,QB is still a unknown as i see it yet ,orton success or failure obviously alters any pre-planning would change.

but in order OG,TE THEN DE AND LB DEPTH .

[aristocrat]

yea we need a guard. Tpegs might be looking to flex his muscle being the new kid on the block. Extending hughes and dareus would go a long way. I might think he would sign a guy like Iupati to shore up our line and then we can take a tight end or db in the 2nd. Our defense stays strong with kiko coming back and our line gets an anchor.

[Rob's House]

yea we need a guard. Tpegs might be looking to flex his muscle being the new kid on the block. Extending hughes and dareus would go a long way. I might think he would sign a guy like Iupati to shore up our line and then we can take a tight end or db in the 2nd. Our defense stays strong with kiko coming back and our line gets an anchor.

 

I would very much prefer this than trying to fix the OL through the draft. Not that I'm opposed to drafting OL, but we're in win now mode for the first time in forever and we've got plenty of developmental guys. Fill holes in FA, build for the future in the draft. BPA!

[San-O]

I don't know if I buy that, though it's perfectly reasonable. Hughes will test the market, he'd be foolish not to, but I don't think it's preordained he's going to get the best deal elsewhere. He has the benefit of playing next to three pro-bowlers -- hell, three all pros -- meaning he's one on one most plays. The Bills also showed faith in him by trading for him and getting him out of the career purgatory he had fallen into in Indy. That probably doesn't mean much, but it might.

 

As for the draft, interior offensive linemen need to be prioritized above QBs and OTs. We've had two straight drafts of skill players, this should be the year of the grinders -- find our unsung heroes in the trenches. That's what this team needs the most.

 

the Bills drafted three (3) O linemen in 2014. I'm not saying they don't NEED O linemen, they certainly do, however only because the selections from this year

are getting it?

 

Next year Buffalo has only 4 selections I believe.

[Kirby Jackson]

I don't care how they go about it but the Bills need 2 OGs, a TE and a S (if they don't re-sign Searcy). This is assuming that they re-sign Hughes (and extend Dareus).

[justnzane]

The priority of QB is up in the air. IT really depends on if they believe EJ can turn into something. That said, with no #1 pick, one can assume that they have to keep him around along with Orton. Thus, I'd have a hard time believing that the team would go with a QB in round 2 when there are holes in the trenches that need to be filled.

[Deranged Rhino]

The priority of QB is up in the air. IT really depends on if they believe EJ can turn into something. That said, with no #1 pick, one can assume that they have to keep him around along with Orton. Thus, I'd have a hard time believing that the team would go with a QB in round 2 when there are holes in the trenches that need to be filled.

 

Yup. This team was never going to get a QB in the first round of 2015, nor in the second. There are other, more pressing, needs to be filled, and this isn't a bumper class of QBs coming out, there aren't any franchise changers coming to the rescue via the draft. That's why the pick was expendable.

[3rdand12]

I would very much prefer this than trying to fix the OL through the draft. Not that I'm opposed to drafting OL, but we're in win now mode for the first time in forever and we've got plenty of developmental guys. Fill holes in FA, build for the future in the draft. BPA!

agreed in general.

the OG should be a walk in and play well, type of character.

 

I think its time for a center from the draft again

 

and get Colt Mcoy what the heck

 

Yup. This team was never going to get a QB in the first round of 2015, nor in the second. There are other, more pressing, needs to be filled, and this isn't a bumper class of QBs coming out, there aren't any franchise changers coming to the rescue via the draft. That's why the pick was expendable.

Interesting to consider Greg

[bananathumb]

How hard is it to get a guard who can compete in the NFL? Holy crap!

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Guard 2nd round.

Guard 3rd round

Remaining picks best rated player at time other than guard.

 

 

Qb.can wait till next draft ,, when we have another 1st to pick a Qb . Without Buddys help.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I'm soliciting Positional Needs for DraftTek's November Mock.

I use TBD's opinions exclusively to submit the Bills' needs to DraftTek here. This is what I currently would submit, and I have them in my order:

 

P2=QB. Kyle Orton looks like a short-term answer. Orton #PFF's 18th Overall, 16th pass rating, 8th Completion %, 7th NFL Rating, 6th YPA, tied for 6th-least INT, & #1 least dropped. QB has IMHO moved down to P2 level, which means the Round Two selection would be BEst Player Available between all P2s on the Big Board (best QB, RT, or OG; right now that's Kevin Hogan QB).

P2=RT. Seantrel is second to last in the NFL in PFF's rating system.

P2=OG. Urbik looks like a serviceable LG; He was 9th in 2012 among RGs. Bills now have NFL's worst RG (Pears). Seantrel can't move inside. Kujo will be a failure, Pears and Chris Williams are already failures, and Cyril needs a year of seasoning at best. We'll need one, maybe 2 OGs or OTOGs.

 

 

P3=TE. Gragg has promise, granted, and Lee Smith is a great blocker with like 12 career catches, and there's fragile Chandler...Talk me into P3?

P3=RBF. "Running Back, Featured" has 2 guys on last year of contract, with Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown looking average against the NFL's #1 rush defense (2.1 ypc).

 

P4=CB. Gilmore, had his best game as a Bills player vs the Jets. Tight coverage, INT, no penalties. McKelvin is having his best year. Once a week one of the Bills brass says "You can never have too many corners". Marrone says we have 3 good corners, and they're the reason we're getting sacks and turnovers.

P4=OC. Bills brought in Macky McPherson and tried OGs at Center in TC. Wood is good and is a leader, but he's lightest guy on the line that's the heaviest in NFL. His contract runs through the '17 season.

P4=ILB.Spikes is a temporary fix for the run defense but has no range compared to Brown playing in the middle. Spikes is rated extremely low by PFF (#56 among ILBs). We need a Hightower, Kuechly, Willis.

P4=FS, SS. We have three above-average safeties ranking 4th (AWilliams) and 14th (Searcy) among all safeties. Duke is 10th vs the run. Byrd who?

 

P6=DT43. Dareus-Charles-Williams-Bryant is just as impressive, with the possibility of 2 Pro Bowlers again. Dareus is 4th Overall, Kyle Williams 6th Overall of all 101 DT/NTs. Suh-Fairley come close at 7 and 9. However, Kyle is one of the 5 oldest on the team. Is this a P4?

P6=DE43. Williams-Wynn-Hughes-Lawson are a quartet that rank among the NFL's best (Hughes and Mario now 7th-8th among 75 DE43). That said, Schwartz loves DEs. Is this a P4?

P6=OLB43. In the last game, N. Bradham: 10 tackles, an assist, forced fumble. P. Brown 8 tackles, assist, and interception. Bradham is 6th OLB Overall in the NFL, 7th pass rushing, 5th run defense, and 2nd in QB Hits (Von Miller). Brown-Rivers at SAM and Bradham-Johnson at WILL and Alonso in the wings.

P6=FS, SS. We have three above-average safeties ranking 4th (AWilliams) and 14th (Searcy) among all safeties. Duke is 10th vs the run. Byrd who?

 

The P9s:

P9=RBC. "Running Back, Change Of Pace" is CJ Spiller. Possible that the Bills would trade him for picks, and draft his replacement or competition, but I'm betting not. What do you think?

P9=WRF. "Wide Receiver, Featured" has Sammy, Robert Woods, and maybe Mike Williams. It's unlikely they draft another young WR this coming year.

P9=WRS. "Wide Receiver, Specialized" is Marquise Goodwin. Team speed is important to Hackett, but unless you argue for better hands over more accurate throws, I think we have a good one in Goodwin.

P9=FB. Fullbacks Frank Summers and a tank-like Boobie Dixon are good for what we use FBs for in our system. One could argue picking up a late-round guy as they start coming off in RD6.

P9=LT. Cordy Glenn is approaching elite-level, with a work ethic to match. Seantrel and Kujo are at best developmental LTs. I don't expect Glenn to be kicked inside to OG (but he was at LG on PATs). Only question mark is the mystery illness.

P9=PK. Placekickers shouldn't be drafted and we have a great one.

P9=P. See above.

 

If the draft were simulated today, the Bills would be given Kevin Hogan, QB of Stanford by the DraftTek computer.

What position would you upgrade the need for and why? What would you downgrade?

Astro

 

right on the money but I would move QB down with Orton playing well, unless by some miracle Connor Cook comes out and is available when we pick I wouldn't grab a QB in the second.

 

Desperately need a guard or Tackle.

 

Hughes is most likely going to impossible to re-sign. If that is the case, I'd make DE a P2 along with OG, and designate OT and C a P3 just to keep all OL positions a priority. Outside of that, I agree with the rest of your analysis. Great work! (as always )

 

now that we have money why can't we resign him, we are still 13 mill under the cap?

[Buffalo Barbarian]

hahaha, yes!

 

 

Brandon, Nix, Whaley, Marrone

[maddenboy]

Whaley is from the Steelers. So I'd expect 2 things from him:

 

1) Linebackers. The Steelers never could get enuf LBs, it seemed. Or maybe DE with our top pick, since ya cant never have enuf pass rush.

 

2) Getting rid of aging players a year early rather than a year late. Top of my head, this is obviously Spiller (ineffectiveness, not age), and maybe FredEx, so I could see a RB fairly early.

 

But the Steelers would occasionally keep a "heart and soul of the team" player a little longer, like Polamalu. So maybe Freddie gets a pass here.

Edited November 2, 2014 by maddenboy