Astrobot Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm soliciting Positional Needs for DraftTek's November Mock. I use TBD's opinions exclusively to submit the Bills' needs to DraftTek here. This is what I currently would submit, and I have them in my order: P2=QB. Kyle Orton looks like a short-term answer. Orton #PFF's 18th Overall, 16th pass rating, 8th Completion %, 7th NFL Rating, 6th YPA, tied for 6th-least INT, & #1 least dropped. QB has IMHO moved down to P2 level, which means the Round Two selection would be BEst Player Available between all P2s on the Big Board (best QB, RT, or OG; right now that's Kevin Hogan QB). P2=RT. Seantrel is second to last in the NFL in PFF's rating system. P2=OG. Urbik looks like a serviceable LG; He was 9th in 2012 among RGs. Bills now have NFL's worst RG (Pears). Seantrel can't move inside. Kujo will be a failure, Pears and Chris Williams are already failures, and Cyril needs a year of seasoning at best. We'll need one, maybe 2 OGs or OTOGs. P3=TE. Gragg has promise, granted, and Lee Smith is a great blocker with like 12 career catches, and there's fragile Chandler...Talk me into P3? P3=RBF. "Running Back, Featured" has 2 guys on last year of contract, with Boobie Dixon and Bryce Brown looking average against the NFL's #1 rush defense (2.1 ypc). P4=CB. Gilmore, had his best game as a Bills player vs the Jets. Tight coverage, INT, no penalties. McKelvin is having his best year. Once a week one of the Bills brass says "You can never have too many corners". Marrone says we have 3 good corners, and they're the reason we're getting sacks and turnovers. P4=OC. Bills brought in Macky McPherson and tried OGs at Center in TC. Wood is good and is a leader, but he's lightest guy on the line that's the heaviest in NFL. His contract runs through the '17 season. P4=ILB.Spikes is a temporary fix for the run defense but has no range compared to Brown playing in the middle. Spikes is rated extremely low by PFF (#56 among ILBs). We need a Hightower, Kuechly, Willis. P4=FS, SS. We have three above-average safeties ranking 4th (AWilliams) and 14th (Searcy) among all safeties. Duke is 10th vs the run. Byrd who? P6=DT43. Dareus-Charles-Williams-Bryant is just as impressive, with the possibility of 2 Pro Bowlers again. Dareus is 4th Overall, Kyle Williams 6th Overall of all 101 DT/NTs. Suh-Fairley come close at 7 and 9. However, Kyle is one of the 5 oldest on the team. Is this a P4? P6=DE43. Williams-Wynn-Hughes-Lawson are a quartet that rank among the NFL's best (Hughes and Mario now 7th-8th among 75 DE43). That said, Schwartz loves DEs. Is this a P4? P6=OLB43. In the last game, N. Bradham: 10 tackles, an assist, forced fumble. P. Brown 8 tackles, assist, and interception. Bradham is 6th OLB Overall in the NFL, 7th pass rushing, 5th run defense, and 2nd in QB Hits (Von Miller). Brown-Rivers at SAM and Bradham-Johnson at WILL and Alonso in the wings. P6=FS, SS. We have three above-average safeties ranking 4th (AWilliams) and 14th (Searcy) among all safeties. Duke is 10th vs the run. Byrd who? The P9s: P9=RBC. "Running Back, Change Of Pace" is CJ Spiller. Possible that the Bills would trade him for picks, and draft his replacement or competition, but I'm betting not. What do you think? P9=WRF. "Wide Receiver, Featured" has Sammy, Robert Woods, and maybe Mike Williams. It's unlikely they draft another young WR this coming year. P9=WRS. "Wide Receiver, Specialized" is Marquise Goodwin. Team speed is important to Hackett, but unless you argue for better hands over more accurate throws, I think we have a good one in Goodwin. P9=FB. Fullbacks Frank Summers and a tank-like Boobie Dixon are good for what we use FBs for in our system. One could argue picking up a late-round guy as they start coming off in RD6. P9=LT. Cordy Glenn is approaching elite-level, with a work ethic to match. Seantrel and Kujo are at best developmental LTs. I don't expect Glenn to be kicked inside to OG (but he was at LG on PATs). Only question mark is the mystery illness. P9=PK. Placekickers shouldn't be drafted and we have a great one. P9=P. See above. If the draft were simulated today, the Bills would be given Kevin Hogan, QB of Stanford by the DraftTek computer. What position would you upgrade the need for and why? What would you downgrade? Astro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hughes is most likely going to impossible to re-sign. If that is the case, I'd make DE a P2 along with OG, and designate OT and C a P3 just to keep all OL positions a priority. Outside of that, I agree with the rest of your analysis. Great work! (as always ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hughes is most likely going to impossible to re-sign. If that is the case, I'd make DE a P2 along with OG, and designate OT and C a P3 just to keep all OL positions a priority. Outside of that, I agree with the rest of your analysis. Great work! (as always ) I don't know if I buy that, though it's perfectly reasonable. Hughes will test the market, he'd be foolish not to, but I don't think it's preordained he's going to get the best deal elsewhere. He has the benefit of playing next to three pro-bowlers -- hell, three all pros -- meaning he's one on one most plays. The Bills also showed faith in him by trading for him and getting him out of the career purgatory he had fallen into in Indy. That probably doesn't mean much, but it might. As for the draft, interior offensive linemen need to be prioritized above QBs and OTs. We've had two straight drafts of skill players, this should be the year of the grinders -- find our unsung heroes in the trenches. That's what this team needs the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I'm soliciting Positional Needs for DraftTek's November Mock. I use TBD's opinions exclusively to submit the Bills' needs to DraftTek here. This is what I currently would submit, and I have them in my order: P2=QB. Kyle Orton looks like a short-term answer. Orton #PFF's 18th Overall, 16th pass rating, 8th Completion %, 7th NFL Rating, 6th YPA, tied for 6th-least INT, & #1 least dropped. QB has IMHO moved down to P2 level, which means the Round Two selection would be BEst Player Available between all P2s on the Big Board (best QB, RT, or OG; right now that's Kevin Hogan QB). Careful Astro they Orton "true believers" will ride you for weeks for dissing him they will quote his 140 QBR in the 4th yet ignore his 60 QBR in previous quarters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 As for the draft, interior offensive linemen need to be prioritized above QBs and OTs. We've had two straight drafts of skill players, this should be the year of the grinders -- find our unsung heroes in the trenches. That's what this team needs the most. Agreed, but I leave OTs prioritized as it seems a lot of them project out to OGs. Just keeping all paths to finding OGs open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 When you run all your simulations adjusted as they should, run it once more with QB as P1 just to see what happens. I mean, if there is a good guy there why not take him? I think you're pretty accurate with your needs. FA will determine a lot for us before the draft. It is going to come down to who we can get to stay vs. who is going to leave. With names like Summers, Wynn, Bryant, Searcy, Hughes, Lee Smith, Spikes, Hairston, Easley, Pears, and Hogan we are mostly looking at quality depth players. Spikes, Hughes, Searcy and Summers being valuable to our team we also need to account for what Hairston and Pears may be able to add as backups. Hogan is going to be the biggest question mark of the offseason. I would not think about bringing anyone else in or adding anyone else to the fold until we look at the FA already on this roster because they will shape the draft more then anyone else we bring in from the outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) Our most immediate need is OL, but we've got 3 young guys that may yet develop and OL has a steep learning curve. Unless a great value pick drops I think we do better addressing that in FA. Our least immediate need is DL but that's where I'd look to draft first (all prospects being equal) Because it's the strength of our team. Kyle Williams is getting old, Hughes may leave or play 1 more year under the tag, and you can never have too many pass rushers. With no other glaring position of need I start filling the pipeline now (unless a substantially better value exists at another position). TE, S, QB, & RB would also be on my radar in no particular order. I'm looking for guys that make us better 2-5 years from now. The roster's strong enough that I don't expect a 3rd rd rookie to be an instant upgrade at any position. Edit: If a top RB like Melvin Gordon fell to us in the second I might seriously consider taking him. Edited October 29, 2014 by Rob's House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Our most immediate need is OL, but we've got 3 young guys that may yet develop and OL has a steep learning curve. Unless a great value pick drops I think we do better addressing that in FA. Not to hijack the thread because it is not my intent, but are we interested in resigning Pears and Hairston in case the rookies do not develop and to avoid drafting a few OL this year to replace the few we lose in FA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not to hijack the thread because it is not my intent, but are we interested in resigning Pears and Hairston in case the rookies do not develop and to avoid drafting a few OL this year to replace the few we lose in FA? Hard to say, but if they're FAs at the end of the year (are they?) I'd be inclined to doubt it. Either way, I don't like the idea of going into another season relying on mid to late round rookies to start on the O line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hard to say, but if they're FAs at the end of the year (are they?) I'd be inclined to doubt it. Either way, I don't like the idea of going into another season relying on mid to late round rookies to start on the O line. they arehttp://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/buffalo-bills/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 they are http://www.spotrac.com/free-agents/nfl/buffalo-bills/ It wouldn't break my heart to re-sign Pears if his price is right. He's been rough at G but he's a serviceable T and I like having depth there. Haven't seen enough of Hairston to say one way or the other. Either way, the 2 of them only represent 1 starter who could be replaced by Richardson if they think he's ready or sign a veteran. Don't get me wrong, I'm not against drafting OL, I just wouldn't prioritize it this year. It hasn't really worked out thus far but I was stoked that we addressed the line with 3 picks last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Our most immediate need is OL, but we've got 3 young guys that may yet develop and OL has a steep learning curve. Unless a great value pick drops I think we do better addressing that in FA. I tend to agree, however, Glenn, Richardson, Wood, and Levitre all say differently. It seems (outside of Richardson/Kouandjio) that investing early picks in the line can pay off fairly quickly. If we spend that 2nd round pick on an OL, I'd expect them to contribute almost right away. Our least immediate need is DL but that's where I'd look to draft first (all prospects being equal) Because it's the strength of our team. Kyle Williams is getting old, Hughes may leave or play 1 more year under the tag, and you can never have too many pass rushers. With no other glaring position of need I start filling the pipeline now (unless a substantially better value exists at another position). Agreed again, and would add that Mario isn't getting any younger or cheaper (almost $20mil/year), and keeping your trenches as your strength is a great way to build a team in the NFL. Not against going DE early either. TE, S, QB, & RB would also be on my radar in no particular order. I'm looking for guys that make us better 2-5 years from now. The roster's strong enough that I don't expect a 3rd rd rookie to be an instant upgrade at any position. Edit: If a top RB like Melvin Gordon fell to us in the second I might seriously consider taking him. Is this the BILLS we're talking about?!? While we still have a ways to go, it's nice to have a well built roster with a FO you can trust, isnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 as of today... biggest upgrade need is OG, TE, QB, LB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Is this the BILLS we're talking about?!? While we still have a ways to go, it's nice to have a well built roster with a FO you can trust, isnt it? Yes it is (We need a pass the joint emoticon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
papazoid Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Yes it is (We need a pass the joint emoticon) <////////iii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) Yes it is (We need a pass the joint emoticon) hahaha, yes! Edited October 29, 2014 by DrDareustein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Hughes is most likely going to impossible to re-sign. If that is the case, I'd make DE a P2 along with OG, and designate OT and C a P3 just to keep all OL positions a priority. Outside of that, I agree with the rest of your analysis. Great work! (as always ) I agree with you which means that you should rethink your position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I agree with you which means that you should rethink your position. Thats it! I quit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Not to hijack the thread because it is not my intent, but are we interested in resigning Pears and Hairston in case the rookies do not develop and to avoid drafting a few OL this year to replace the few we lose in FA? Unless you think that Marrone is a moron why would they consider re-signing a couple guys who can't get off the bench with the current line in horrendous shape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 I think its gonna depend on the offense we want to run next year (meaning if Hackett gets his pink slip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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