Please tell me why Kyle Orton is not the long term answer ?

[PeoriaAZBillsFan]

Where is the evidence that this is such a great offense? The running game is not very strong. The O-line has been pretty bad sometimes, the WR's are unproven, the TE is avg at best, and the OC obviously isn't one of the top coordinators in the league, so what are you talking about?

 

It's my opinion, and I agree with you that our OC shouldn't be coaching HS football, but I see no reason to think that this offense can't be one of the top offenses in the league. Orton is a much smarter QB than EJ is and that might change some things offensively down the road. He was smart enough to audible on the 2-pt conversion, maybe he'll eventually be able to change plays on the fly to take advantage of the players we have.

[Bob Malooga]

I watched this last week, and was far from impressed...I was actually worried.

 

At 4:57 he makes the same exact play as EJ did against the Texans, but the Eagles DE is not JJ Watt.

 

He overthrows guys, throws at their feet, throws behind them...and he makes stupid mistakes.

 

Kyle Orton is a good placeholder for now, but he is not a QB anyone is going to win a Super Bowl, or probably even a playoff game with.

 

(And he had ONE throw in the Detroit game, to Goodwin, that a "long-term/franchise QB" should make on the regular.)

 

[Solomon Grundy]

Because he only played 1 game. But I see no reason why he isnt the QB for the next 3 years while we draft a guy and let him learn.

 

Why draft another guy? We have a guy we just drafted, EJ Manuel. The plan from the beginning was to let him sit and learn behind Kolb. EJ IS developing. There are things he needs to learn that he can only get from a vet. Things like watching a veteran QB let a play develop before throwing the pass. Things like setting your feet when throwing to improve your accuracy. Things like having a presence in the huddle. EJ can be our QB for a long time, let's use our future picks on Offensive linemen and Tight Ends.

[Orton's Arm]

Since 2009, Orton has outperformed Fitz by a wide margin. Whether you look at yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, or TD/INT ratio, Orton has been significantly better. On the other hand, his QBR over that period has been about equal to Fitz's, which is cause for concern. Overall though, both statistical indicators and the eyeball test indicate that Orton most likely represents a step up from Fitz. If not two steps up.

 

The question is whether you can turn a quarterbacking performance like that into a Super Bowl win. Some of the best QBs in the league--Brady, Manning, and Brees--are nearing retirement. There isn't a group of young QBs of that caliber emerging to replace them. As those three players continue to age, the NFL will experience a reduction in its overall level of quarterback talent.

 

Normally, to win a Super Bowl, you have to have a franchise QB + a complete team around him. While Kyle Orton is probably better than Fitz, he isn't a franchise QB. But there are some years when the Super Bowl winner is weaker than usual. If you think of the usual list of franchise QBs, none of them are on complete football teams. Maybe a team like San Diego will turn out to be complete, while also having a QB who plays at a franchise level. If so, they will be extremely difficult for the Bills to overcome.

 

If there is a window of opportunity for the Bills to win the Super Bowl with Orton at the helm, that window won't open until next year. (This assumes that the Bills' OG problems will be fixed in the off season.) Even if a team like the Chargers emerges to win the Super Bowl this year, it's quite possible they'll come back to Earth next year. The hope under this scenario would be that the Bills would achieve a sort of peak strength at the very moment when no other contender can put both a franchise QB and a complete team on the football field. In which case, the Bills would have a serious chance of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

 

But there should be more than one arrow in the Bills' quiver. On the one hand, they should be maximizing any short-term opportunities they may have to win the Super Bowl with Orton as QB. But if the opportunity arises to draft a Bridgewater or Bortles type prospect, they should take it. By this I mean that if a college QB demonstrates a high level of accuracy and very good information processing ability on a college football field, while also possessing a respectable set of physical tools, the Bills should take him. On the other hand, they shouldn't waste their time or their draft picks on college QBs who haven't demonstrated these things. Obtaining a legitimate franchise QB would give them another arrow in their quiver.

[JC2002]

I watched this last week, and was far from impressed...I was actually worried.

 

At 4:57 he makes the same exact play as EJ did against the Texans, but the Eagles DE is not JJ Watt.

 

He overthrows guys, throws at their feet, throws behind them...and he makes stupid mistakes.

 

Kyle Orton is a good placeholder for now, but he is not a QB anyone is going to win a Super Bowl, or probably even a playoff game with.

 

(And he had ONE throw in the Detroit game, to Goodwin, that a "long-term/franchise QB" should make on the regular.)

 

http://vimeo.com/107815174

 

I could post dozens of clips of qbs having passes batted down . Do you believe that EJ got benched because he threw pick 6 because plenty of qbs have thrown pick sixes . Romo and Brees always have one two instances a year it seems where someone takes a short pass of theirs to the house .

 

EJ got benched because he wasnt making throws BEFORE the pick 6 and didnt make throws after the pick 6 . Its that simple and not that hard to figure out and the pick 6 by EJ is a tiny blimp on the radar of Ejs accuracy issues .

 

In the clip you analyzed Orton was 30-46 for 358 2 tds and 2 picks after having not started a game in 2 seasons playing against a defense set to defend the pass most of the time because he had no run game support .

 

In some of those instances you can clearly see the miscommunication from having not practiced that loing with the starters . I can clearly see him in one instance instead of forcing the ball into coverage throwing it low where no one can get it but not risking a pick . I see him overthrow Dez but I also see Dez get bumped off his route as well . You say he threw it behind but I see him attempting several back shoulder throws and the timing simply isn't there yet after one or two practices .

 

Orton is not some passing master and he will have his ups and downs i dont see how anyone could watch football this season and not understand that . But EJ was bad and bad for an extended period of time in a football 8-10 quarters of bad football is a extremely long time in football and he was simply bad . I dont get why people just cant admit that and I am seeing far too many instances of people taking an instance of someone else being bad and comparing it to multiple quarters of the bad football EJ was playing and it makes no sense.

 

There are not many instances of non superstars playing qb that survive weeks of bad play ,

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

To all the clowns out there who keep see saying we didn't win the game the Lions kicker lost it:"YOU ARE WHAT THE SCOREBOARD SAYS YOU ARE!"

[Ted William's frozen head]

Considering he has one month with the team, beat the Lions, made all the throws,made some great adjustments , is still a little rusty, why is Kyle Orton NOT the long term answer?

 

I think he is......

 

Yes,yes, we need to see more but why rule him out ? I see lots of threads that say he is a short term fix........Why ?

 

 

Its very possible that he could be Buffalo's QB for the next 5 or 6 years .

 

We may be rebuilding this team by then.......

 

 

 

 

--

 

I'll get back to ya in about 12 games....

[Captain Hindsight]

I for one can't understand how anyone sees KO as anything more than a stop-gap. He has played one game in our system and was OK. If he comes out and lights up NE* we can talk. But lets not all act like the the 17 point offensive explosion was the second coming

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Since 2009, Orton has outperformed Fitz by a wide margin. Whether you look at yards per attempt, air yards per attempt, or TD/INT ratio, Orton has been significantly better. On the other hand, his QBR over that period has been about equal to Fitz's, which is cause for concern. Overall though, both statistical indicators and the eyeball test indicate that Orton most likely represents a step up from Fitz. If not two steps up.

 

Dude you are too much. First you say Orton has outperformed Fitz by a wide margin. Then you admit that QBR has been about equal. Fitz's completion percentage is better. He has also thrown more TD and more yards.

 

What you really mean is "by the metrics Orton's Arm deems important, Orton is better", whether or not those metrics are in fact predictive ot team success.

[Fadingpain]

Considering he has one month with the team, beat the Lions, made all the throws,made some great adjustments , is still a little rusty, why is Kyle Orton NOT the long term answer?

 

I think he is......

 

Yes,yes, we need to see more but why rule him out ? I see lots of threads that say he is a short term fix........Why ?

 

 

Its very possible that he could be Buffalo's QB for the next 5 or 6 years .

 

We may be rebuilding this team by then.......

 

 

 

 

--

 

Orton is not the "long term answer" because he is not good enough for that.

 

Is he good enough to drive the bus through a transitional era where we move from here and now to a time when we have "the real deal" at QB?

 

Yes he is.

 

The QB we all want and have been waiting for for a long time now isn't here yet.

 

Pegula changes that situation however.

 

Give him a few years.

[starrymessenger]

 

 

There is a difference in Fitz and Orton. Orton can make every throw. Not the biggest arm, but he can throw outside the #s, Fitz could not.

 

If he had a bigger arm and was more athletic he would be Aaron Rodgers.

Having an arm that is only "good enough" and being relatively unathletic and without the ability to scramble for yards and extend plays using his legs probably explains his status as a good backup/marginal starter. He sure doesn't look like your prototypical franchise guy. No one is going to mistake him for Andrew Luck. Thing is though there are lots of guys who might look the part who can't play the position as well as he can.

What he does have going for him though is his smarts and his poise. He looks to have excellent situational awareness and has absorbed the lessons of experience. Though hardly "mobile" he moves well in the pocket and can actually throw on the run if he gets the opportunity. He is very accurate and throws with enuf zip (or touch when called for) within 25 yards of the line of scrimmage.

As far as his "fitting in" with this team he looks to be exactly what the doctor ordered. What this O most needs is an on field leader at the QB position. They are a bunch of youngsters in search of direction. Kyle Orton is a mature person can lead them IMO. In fact, he may very well give the whole team a big lift.

 

I think he could find a lot of success in Buffalo and surprise some people. Time will tell.

Some of the talking heads don't like him very much. Another reason for us to like him.

 

He's an irreverent guy with a FU attitude. Those are some of the "intangibles" good quarterbacks have.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

> I suggest to you that evaluating this % air yards against the actual success of these QB offense (and W/L record of those teams) will reveal it's not a very predictive statistic.

Agreed. Which is why I ignored that statistic in my post.

The column I would have used is air yards per attempt. Air yards per attempt is exactly the same thing as yards per attempt, except that air yards per attempt doesn't give the quarterback credit for yards after the catch (YAC).

 

If you look at air yards per attempt, the ranking shifts slightly from air yards percent, but the message is the same. We want to predict which teams are most successful ie, make the playoffs, correct? Some of these QB have high air yards per attempt (or percent air yards), some of them don't. It's just NOT a very useful predictive statistic. Some offenses are built on dink-n-dunk plus YAC. They work when they're done right; it's the original principle of the WCO!!! Others are built for running interspersed with enough long bombs to keep the defense from stacking the box. They work too, when they're done right.

 

Here are playoff teams from 2012 along with the "air yards per attempt" ranking of their QB:

 

Texans 16

Bengals 24

Packers 17

Vikes 28

Ravens 18 (Superbowl winner)

Colts 4

Seahawks 2

Redskins 7

Broncos 3

49ers (not listed - 2 QBs)

Falcons 9

Patriots 15

 

Why 2012? Because I knew if I used 2013, people would claim Brady just had an off year and Luck had a "sophmore slump"

Here you go, 2013

Colts 32

Chiefs 35

Saints 15

Eagles 2

Chargers 11

Bengals 23

49'ers 4

Packers 8

Seahawks 3

Patriots 27

Panthers 28

Broncos 5

 

Can we say "scatter plot"?

Thought we could.

Anyone want to trade Foles for Rodgers, Rivers, Brady, or Luck 'cuz he put up way better AYA numbers?

Thought not.

 

I'm not saying this stat isn't useful - it is, especially in understanding how different QB/offenses function. But it's simply not a predictive metric for success - winning.

I don't expect to persuade you but it bothers me when people make blanket assertions of "outperformed by a wide margin" based upon their personal opinions about which stats matter and which don't - I think it's justified to call that "cherry picking"

Edited October 8, 2014 by Hopeful

[TXBILLSFAN]

Orton is Fitz 2.0

 

He's had a large enough body of work that you know his ceiling is at the top end of average. He is not a franchise QB. He is a solid backup, meaning he can play a few games and hold his own.

 

Barring some sort of late career aberration, Orton will be a .500 QB.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's an upgrade vs. EJ and a backup most teams would covet (for the right price, as teams with franchise QB, are limited in cap $$ for backups)

 

If the goal is to WIN the Super Bowl, Buffalo needs to keep looking aggressively (i.e. high draft picks) for their true franchise QB, you can't WIN a Super Bowl without one !!!

Edited October 8, 2014 by TXBILLSFAN

[starrymessenger]

I can't help but see a lot of similarities with this Bills QB situation with Orton and the Cardinals situation a few years ago with Warner. Both were good veterans brought in to back-up a talented but raw young QB. Both of those QB's got hurt leaving the veteran to take over the team.

 

I'm not saying the same thing will happen (I'd say it's extremely unlikely that it will but, I hope it does) what I'm saying is that this Bills team reminds me of that Cardinals team. Both offenses consisted of dynamic playmakers and good defenses. All Warner needed to do was be smart and manage games to win and he ended up doing much more. All Orton needs to do is be smart and manage the game.

 

Again, I don't know if lightening can strike twice but I hope it does. It's certainly a more exciting team to watch right now with Orton in there. I hope EJ learns what he needs to and can eventually take the reigns back, then they won't have to use another draft pick on a QB.

 

Warner had a bigger/better arm.

If Orton is successful, meaning helps the team to the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how the Bills approach the position in the offseason.

Do they see EJ as the next man up or do they need to keep drafting QBs. If they draft, how high will they prioritize the QB position? If they invest heavily in a youngster, what does that say about how they view EJ.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Orton is Fitz 2.0

 

He's had a large enough body of work that you know his ceiling is at the top end of average. He is not a franchise QB. He is a solid backup, meaning he can play a few games and hold his own.

 

Barring some sort of late career aberration, Orton will be a .500 QB.

 

Don't get me wrong, he's an upgrade vs. EJ and a backup most teams would covet (for the right price, as teams with franchise QB, are limited in cap $$ for backups)

 

If the goal is to WIN the Super Bowl, Buffalo needs to keep looking aggressively (i.e. high draft picks) for their true franchise QB, you can't WIN a Super Bowl without one !!!

 

Orton is better, and possibly much better than Fitz,

JMO.

[HOUSE]

Do you guys really care about what Orton did in the past?

 

Not me..........good or bad, I really don't care.....

 

 

 

 

-

Edited October 8, 2014 by HOUSE

[mead107]

Today is today. No living in the past.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Do you guys really care about what Orton did in the past?

 

Not me..........good or bad, I really don't care.....

 

There is a school of thought that past performance is predictive of future results....employers utilize this concept in interviewing, and coaches/fans seem enamored. We think, say, a DL will be awesome because he was awesome on another team (Mario). Or we think he will suck on another team, because he sucked for us (Maybin).

 

Occasionally a change of scheme/coaching effects improvement (Hughes, some QB who have been mentioned in this thread). Occasionally, something is wrong with a guy and eventually he heals up or figures out how to fix a problem and takes off (Warner).

 

Typically, once a player is matured in the league, what you see is what you get. He may shine for a time, then this phenomenon called "regression to the mean" takes hold.

 

I would have loved to be wrong on this point with Fitz. I would love to be wrong on this point with Orton. I don't "care" per se what he did in the past, but I consider it likely to predict his performance in future.

[playman]

0 - 4 on his chances. and the equivalent of 65 years in an nfl live. without reading the trazillion posts b4

[starrymessenger]

Do you guys really care about what Orton did in the past?

 

Not me..........good or bad, I really don't care.....

 

I suspect he is in many ways the same guy he has always been.

He just may be a player who has been undervalued however or who can greatly benefit from finding the right "gig".

I would certainly not be at all surprised if his stint in Buffalo yielded results (especially wins) that exceed the expectations you might reasonably have from examining his career to date.

[Prickly Pete]

Today is today. No living in the past.

 

What does that really mean? EJM stunk it up a week and a half ago, and that was a whole different month, does that mean that he should start , I mean it's a whole new day!