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Gil Brandt looks at the six teams with the longest playoff droughts.


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Buccaneers, Rams could end playoff droughts in 2014 season

The NFL offseason is a time for hope to blossom, buoyed by the twin fonts of optimism: free agency and the draft. The feeling that anything can happen when the season kicks off is pervasive, exciting even the fans of those teams whose most recent playoff appearances are but a distant memory.

 

But as those same fans can no doubt tell you, offseason excitement does not always -- or even often -- lead to in-season satisfaction. The teams mired in truly serious playoff droughts -- hello, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns -- have been down this road before.

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I don't know, I see four teams beating on each other and knocking each other down. I see San Fran improved. I see Seattle still good. I see Arizona young and hungry with a stable franchise and a very talented Rams team.

 

San Fran beats Seattle twice, Rams beat each one of their rivals once, San Fran loses 3 in he division, Arizona goes 50/50 in the division... I just don't know, I could see it going any which way but I would not count the Rams toward the bottom or say they do not look good enough to reach the playoffs.

 

I give them better odds then Cleveland.

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^^

This! I am saying we win the AFCE this year. Said it a few weeks ago too and I am not backing off my prediction.

Cool!

 

Can TJ Graham be the 2014 season MVP, too? I just can't be that optimistic, at least, not yet.

 

#realityofbeingbillsfan.

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I don't know, I see four teams beating on each other and knocking each other down. I see San Fran improved. I see Seattle still good. I see Arizona young and hungry with a stable franchise and a very talented Rams team.

 

San Fran beats Seattle twice, Rams beat each one of their rivals once, San Fran loses 3 in he division, Arizona goes 50/50 in the division... I just don't know, I could see it going any which way but I would not count the Rams toward the bottom or say they do not look good enough to reach the playoffs.

 

I give them better odds then Cleveland.

 

Can't see Arizona taking out SF twice. I do agree they will beat up on each other, though.

 

I also don't like Tampa's odds that much either. The NFC in general is much stronger.

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Can't see Arizona taking out SF twice. I do agree they will beat up on each other, though.

 

I also don't like Tampa's odds that much either. The NFC in general is much stronger.

I didn't say Arizona takes them out twice, but you can't win the division without sweeping at least one opponent, and at this rate I do not think any team is capable of doing that.

 

Tampa, that gets interesting. New Orleans? Carolina? Atlanta? New Orleans might final buckle under the pressure they have building and what has been going on for so long. Carolina may go from first to worst this year, they remind me of the late 90's early 00's Eagles. Atlanta has a lot of ground to clear and rebuild on but if anything are slowly pulling up. Tampa is poised to finally gel, they have the talent.

 

I'll do this here so its on the books.

 

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

Carolina

Atlanta

 

New England

Buffalo

NJ Jets

Miami

 

San Fran

Seattle

St Louis

Arizona

 

Chicago

Green Bay

Detroit

Minnesota

 

Indianapolis

Tennessee

Jacksonville

Houston

 

San Diego

Denver

Kansas City

Oakland

 

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

 

Philadelphia

Dallas

NJ Giants

Washington

 

^Bold = playoffs

 

 

#yeah,we'rein.

Edited by jboyst62
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I didn't say Arizona takes them out twice, but you can't win the division without sweeping at least one opponent, and at this rate I do not think any team is capable of doing that.

 

Tampa, that gets interesting. New Orleans? Carolina? Atlanta? New Orleans might final buckle under the pressure they have building and what has been going on for so long. Carolina may go from first to worst this year, they remind me of the late 90's early 00's Eagles. Atlanta has a lot of ground to clear and rebuild on but if anything are slowly pulling up. Tampa is poised to finally gel, they have the talent.

 

I'll do this here so its on the books.

 

New Orleans

Tampa

Carolina

Atlanta

 

New England

Buffalo

NJ Jets

Miami

 

San Fran

Seattle

St Louis

Arizona

 

Chicago

Green Bay

Detroit

Minnesota

 

Indianapolis

Tennessee

Jacksonville

Houston

 

San Diego

Denver

Kansas City

Oakland

 

Cincinnati

Cleveland

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

 

Philadelphia

Dallas

NJ Giants

Washington

 

^Bold = playoffs

 

 

#yeah,we'rein.

 

You said SF takes out Seattle twice and the Rams beat each of their division rivals once and SF has 3 losses total in the division. The only was that happens is if AZ beats them twice.

 

I am kind of shocked that your'e putting San Diego atop the AFCW. Unless Peyton regresses badly, they are the clear #1 in the AFC again this. They've had massive upgrades on defense and Clady & Miller will return from injury.

 

I also think we're going to top the Jets.

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You said SF takes out Seattle twice and the Rams beat each of their division rivals once and SF has 3 losses total in the division. The only was that happens is if AZ beats them twice.

 

I am kind of shocked that your'e putting San Diego atop the AFCW. Unless Peyton regresses badly, they are the clear #1 in the AFC again this. They've had massive upgrades on defense and Clady & Miller will return from injury.

 

I also think we're going to top the Jets.

I didn't do that much math. Ok, Arizona and SF tie, 6-6 in the first matchup. How's that?!

 

San Diego is good, I like the team and see Rivers as the league MVP this year. Plus, I don't want to see Denver look so damn good and then choke when it matters.

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"Realistically, I don't see Buffalo competing for a postseason berth until 2015."

 

Which might come too late to save this regime.

This meme has been repeated so often people take it as gospel. Not happening. Russ, Doug and Doug aren't going anywhere, new owner or not.

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"Realistically, I don't see Buffalo competing for a postseason berth until 2015."

 

Which might come too late to save this regime.

Obviously , thats a concern.

 

I sure would like to see this group have some more leeway than the Bills standard 3 years and out method of past

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Obviously , thats a concern.

 

I sure would like to see this group have some more leeway than the Bills standard 3 years and out method of past

 

3 years would mean that success in 2015 would keep them their jobs. I guess the iminent sale has everyone assuming that this regime only gets 2 years to fix things.....with 2014 being a win, or lose your job year.

 

Personally I think that regardless of who buys the team, this FO & coaches with get the 2015 season.

Edited by Dibs
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This meme has been repeated so often people take it as gospel. Not happening. Russ, Doug and Doug aren't going anywhere, new owner or not.

Are you being serious? If the Bills don't make the playoffs all of them will be out.

 

It won't take a week.

Edited by Bill from NYC
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Are you being serious? If the Bills don't make the playoffs all of them will be out.

 

It won't take a week.

So if we end up with a 9-7(or 10-6) record.....hell even an 8-8.....where by seasons end EJ, Watkins,the D, the OL(new rookies), running game, the 2nd year players(Woods, Kiko, Goodwin).....all look to be legitimate that the new regime is gone?

 

Why does this regime get only 2 years? Sure, if it all looks crap they might geg the chop but c'mon, 2nd year on the improve generally keeps people their jobs for year 3.

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Are you being serious? If the Bills don't make the playoffs all of them will be out.

 

It won't take a week.

But its only two years in Bill !

I think they will need to have a very strong showing especially second half of the season. Its a very young team and should get some leeway. Unless they look like last year i think they hang on . with some adjustments .

But i truly think these guys can get into the playoffs

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So if we end up with a 9-7(or 10-6) record.....hell even an 8-8.....where by seasons end EJ, Watkins,the D, the OL(new rookies), running game, the 2nd year players(Woods, Kiko, Goodwin).....all look to be legitimate that the new regime is gone?

 

Why does this regime get only 2 years? Sure, if it all looks crap they might geg the chop but c'mon, 2nd year on the improve generally keeps people their jobs for year 3.

 

Fair enough. I should have been more specific in my prediction.....

 

10-6 they probably stay.

 

9-7, probably fired.

 

8-8 or below, so long.

 

But i truly think these guys can get into the playoffs

 

And I am not saying they cannot.

 

As you know, we are rabid fans. We are patient to the point that there is a thread about Gilmore being a shutdown corner. A new owner will have nothing invested in this crew and would dump them in a heartbeat if they continue to lose.

 

Jmo, but a strong one. ;)

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Obviously , thats a concern.

 

I sure would like to see this group have some more leeway than the Bills standard 3 years and out method of past

See I disagree. 3 yes should be plenty enough time to put your stamp on the roster and offensive and defensive plans in place with the starters buying in and being on board. For the first time in a long time I have seen something different in this group. Accountability. Stevie was not a true number one boom trade him away and get a real one. Bring in serious beef on the the online through the draft(bringing in Williams was a joke he'll be lucky to even make the team. Marrone can whip these behemoths into fighting shape. The pieces are there. EJ needs to take the next step period. I believe that our atrocious run D will improve and these Bills got a shot. This management team has to teach this team how to win.

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Fair enough. I should have been more specific in my prediction.....

 

10-6 they probably stay.

 

9-7, probably fired.

 

8-8 or below, so long.

 

 

 

And I am not saying they cannot.

 

As you know, we are rabid fans. We are patient to the point that there is a thread about Gilmore being a shutdown corner. A new owner will have nothing invested in this crew and would dump them in a heartbeat if they continue to lose.

 

Jmo, but a strong one. ;)

If they continue to lose the staff should be dumped ! On that we may agree. 6-10 is NOT acceptable with this talent and depth

last year was just weird as far as bad things happening to the team. Some say it was poor planning (QBs , not enough depth etc ) but i felt they had some horrid luck too . I mean who the hell slips on a field mat and then gets career ending concussion. Uh the starting QB for the Bills . You cant make that sht up !

To the point The new ownership may not base it on w/l or playoffs if the team is gaining momentum and appears dialed in . On the other hand if its bon jovi he could toss the baby out with the bath water :cry:

 

See I disagree. 3 yes should be plenty enough time to put your stamp on the roster and offensive and defensive plans in place with the starters buying in and being on board. For the first time in a long time I have seen something different in this group. Accountability. Stevie was not a true number one boom trade him away and get a real one. Bring in serious beef on the the online through the draft(bringing in Williams was a joke he'll be lucky to even make the team. Marrone can whip these behemoths into fighting shape. The pieces are there. EJ needs to take the next step period. I believe that our atrocious run D will improve and these Bills got a shot. This management team has to teach this team how to win.

I do think you are right , But the fan in me says they might find a way to F it up.

Most of us need therapy at this point anyways

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...it will happen because quarterback EJ Manuel takes a huge leap forward in his second year as a pro. And if anyone can help Manuel do that, it's Hackett.

 

I just don't get this statement. It makes little sense. Brandt is an excellent football mind, but what exactly has Hackett done to deserve this praise? In all likelihood, if EJ doesn't show significant improvement this season, Hackett's walking.

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I just don't get this statement. It makes little sense. Brandt is an excellent football mind, but what exactly has Hackett done to deserve this praise? In all likelihood, if EJ doesn't show significant improvement this season, Hackett's walking.

 

In all likelihood, if EJ doesn't show significant improvement this season, EJ's walking.

 

Hackett's offense at Syracuse put up staggering numbers with essentially a bunch of scrubs. Hackett isn't perfect, but last year's issues had a whole lot more to do with execution than they did play calling and scheming.

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Hacketts scheme had guys running wide open all season long. He was not the problem.

Glad someone else saw it. I'll further your theme.

 

Hacketts scheme drew open targets down field but often times execution was the issue, as pointed out a few posts above. The execution of the Hackett offense utilizes the TE as valuable weapon. The TE needs to be athletic and play large to get possessions. Chandler is 99% (ok, maybe 80%) of the ideal candidate. He does not play big enough to open himself up, nor does he generate the break away ability to get 5 or 6 yards quickly. We need a QB who can find the TE before we get to the red zone and give us drive saving pick ups on 3rd downs and more importantly successful 2nd and short plays.

 

I am not saying the TE is the problem because Chandler is a relatively good fit for TE in the Hackett scheme. We need a QB who can look outside of the hashes and play beyond 8 yards of football. Fitzpatrick was limited physically in his play. Manuel is not. He is limited by something I am not sure about that may be related to confidence, bad OL, vision, or something else.

 

Before we get a conclusion on any skillset player on offense other then RB we need a full season at QB.

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In all likelihood, if EJ doesn't show significant improvement this season, EJ's walking.

 

Hackett's offense at Syracuse put up staggering numbers with essentially a bunch of scrubs. Hackett isn't perfect, but last year's issues had a whole lot more to do with execution than they did play calling and scheming.

Hacketts scheme had guys running wide open all season long. He was not the problem.

Glad someone else saw it. I'll further your theme.

 

Hacketts scheme drew open targets down field but often times execution was the issue, as pointed out a few posts above. The execution of the Hackett offense utilizes the TE as valuable weapon. The TE needs to be athletic and play large to get possessions. Chandler is 99% (ok, maybe 80%) of the ideal candidate. He does not play big enough to open himself up, nor does he generate the break away ability to get 5 or 6 yards quickly. We need a QB who can find the TE before we get to the red zone and give us drive saving pick ups on 3rd downs and more importantly successful 2nd and short plays.

 

I am not saying the TE is the problem because Chandler is a relatively good fit for TE in the Hackett scheme. We need a QB who can look outside of the hashes and play beyond 8 yards of football. Fitzpatrick was limited physically in his play. Manuel is not. He is limited by something I am not sure about that may be related to confidence, bad OL, vision, or something else.

 

Before we get a conclusion on any skillset player on offense other then RB we need a full season at QB.

I disagree with all of you. EJ Manuel had a lot of problems, I do not dispute that. Having said that, I found a lot of the play calling by Hackett to be highly questionable.

 

jboyst, I highlighted what you said about Chandler, because I think you raise some good points. One thing that frustrated me with Hackett was how the offense would use him. There were numerous times, especially early in the season, when the offense would run designed plays that resulted in 1 yard screen passes to Chandler. That play rarely worked. Chandler is not the kind of Tight End that is going to run for 20 yard gains after he catches a pass. Did Nate Hackett not understand this? Did he not watch any of Chandler's previous games with the Bills?

 

Let's also remember how many times the Bills would run the read option, which about 95% of the time, resulted in handing the ball off to Spiller and having him run up the middle. We saw that a lot last year, and most of the time it would result into 1-2 yard gains. Yes, I'm sure they were afraid that if Manuel kept the ball and ran with it he would get injured, but they could not find any alternatives to the running game?

 

I know I have no proof of this, but it just seemed to me that when Manuel was playing, the coaches had specific instructions for him to do specific plays in order to win, and to strictly adhere to those rules. Yet when Lewis & Tuel were playing, you got the impression that the coaches told them to go out there and win the game at all costs.

 

Yes, Manuel was not perfect, at times he was dreadful, but Nate Hackett shares a lot of blame as well.

 

I feel confident that Manuel can be better. I hope that Hackett can be better.

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I disagree with all of you. EJ Manuel had a lot of problems, I do not dispute that. Having said that, I found a lot of the play calling by Hackett to be highly questionable.

 

jboyst, I highlighted what you said about Chandler, because I think you raise some good points. One thing that frustrated me with Hackett was how the offense would use him. There were numerous times, especially early in the season, when the offense would run designed plays that resulted in 1 yard screen passes to Chandler. That play rarely worked. Chandler is not the kind of Tight End that is going to run for 20 yard gains after he catches a pass. Did Nate Hackett not understand this? Did he not watch any of Chandler's previous games with the Bills?

 

Let's also remember how many times the Bills would run the read option, which about 95% of the time, resulted in handing the ball off to Spiller and having him run up the middle. We saw that a lot last year, and most of the time it would result into 1-2 yard gains. Yes, I'm sure they were afraid that if Manuel kept the ball and ran with it he would get injured, but they could not find any alternatives to the running game?

 

I know I have no proof of this, but it just seemed to me that when Manuel was playing, the coaches had specific instructions for him to do specific plays in order to win, and to strictly adhere to those rules. Yet when Lewis & Tuel were playing, you got the impression that the coaches told them to go out there and win the game at all costs.

 

Yes, Manuel was not perfect, at times he was dreadful, but Nate Hackett shares a lot of blame as well.

 

I feel confident that Manuel can be better. I hope that Hackett can be better.

 

To the bold: I saw the same thing but have a different interpretation. EJ himself wasn't letting it rip. See here: http://www.buffalobi...f1-8a9e70fa53bd

 

Now, take a look at this analysis, especially Section III. Reads: http://www.buffaloru...t-play-accuracy There's a photo gallery that highlights numerous times where EJ checked down too early, among other issues.

 

To bring it back to the Chandler passes you mentioned, when you look at this photo, does this look familiar to you? Does it look like EJ or Hackett is the "problem?"

http://www.buffaloru...y-reads#4041067

 

Furthermore, I've linked the following and similar articles a lot over the past season, but I think it still bears repeating when Hackett is being knocked for being too one-dimensional.

i6rpPwCaRro7Q.jpeg

I’m not sure how good Marrone and Hackett’s offense in Buffalo will be, but they may have won the award for one of the niftiest plays I’ve seen....

The insight Marrone and Hackett — two of the smartest football guys you’ll ever meet — stumbled onto this time last year is that there’s a new kind of option football, one that doesn’t pose extra risk to the quarterback and also combines disparate concepts NFL teams have been successful with for years.

http://grantland.com...ption-football/

 

The read option stuff is not as simple as read the DE/OLB, then decide to hand it off or keep it. If EJ is playing with a risk aversive mentality, perhaps he's going to hand it off more often than he should. Then again, in theory, handing it off most of the time should open up other options. If the D cheats to the RB, EJ should still be able to take advantage of the other 2-3 options available.

 

If QB doesn't take advantage of what the D is giving him, then I'm going to side with the OC. The thing is, sometimes EJ would make the right read, even if the right read is a 3-5 yard pop to Chandler. Other times, and IMO, far too often, he left a ton of yards on the field. Those 1-2 yard runs up the middle shouldn't be a problem if EJ makes the D pay when they key in on Spiller. Defenses dared EJ to beat them, and EJ couldn't consistently deliver, so they kept keying in on Spiller and the running game.

 

Based on Hackett making generally great halftime adjustments, and EJ continuing to develop, I'm confident that some of these issues will be ironed out. Like I said upthread, Hackett isn't perfect, but I expect him to continue to grow with experience, just like we hope EJ will. They were both NFL rookies last year, and I don't think it's crazy to think they'll both improve.

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To the bold: I saw the same thing but have a different interpretation. EJ himself wasn't letting it rip. See here: http://www.buffalobi...f1-8a9e70fa53bd

 

Now, take a look at this analysis, especially Section III. Reads: http://www.buffaloru...t-play-accuracy There's a photo gallery that highlights numerous times where EJ checked down too early, among other issues.

 

To bring it back to the Chandler passes you mentioned, when you look at this photo, does this look familiar to you? Does it look like EJ or Hackett is the "problem?"

http://www.buffaloru...y-reads#4041067

 

Furthermore, I've linked the following and similar articles a lot over the past season, but I think it still bears repeating when Hackett is being knocked for being too one-dimensional.

i6rpPwCaRro7Q.jpeg

http://grantland.com...ption-football/

 

The read option stuff is not as simple as read the DE/OLB, then decide to hand it off or keep it. If EJ is playing with a risk aversive mentality, perhaps he's going to hand it off more often than he should. Then again, in theory, handing it off most of the time should open up other options. If the D cheats to the RB, EJ should still be able to take advantage of the other 2-3 options available.

 

If QB doesn't take advantage of what the D is giving him, then I'm going to side with the OC. The thing is, sometimes EJ would make the right read, even if the right read is a 3-5 yard pop to Chandler. Other times, and IMO, far too often, he left a ton of yards on the field. Those 1-2 yard runs up the middle shouldn't be a problem if EJ makes the D pay when they key in on Spiller. Defenses dared EJ to beat them, and EJ couldn't consistently deliver, so they kept keying in on Spiller and the running game.

 

Based on Hackett making generally great halftime adjustments, and EJ continuing to develop, I'm confident that some of these issues will be ironed out. Like I said upthread, Hackett isn't perfect, but I expect him to continue to grow with experience, just like we hope EJ will. They were both NFL rookies last year, and I don't think it's crazy to think they'll both improve.

You make a lot of good points. As I stated before, I know that Manuel was not perfect, and I acknowledge that he made plenty of mistakes.

 

In regards to Chandler; my point was that I did not like seeing Chandler being used as an option where he runs to the sideline for a screen pass. That play had a very low percentage chance of working, and yet the Bills would continue to use that option. They may as well have lined up Chandler as a Fullback and handed the ball off to him.

 

My theory about the differences in the approach to Manuel as opposed to Lewis & Tuel may be incorrect. Perhaps Manuel was more hesitant and not as confident in his play as the others were. I hope that will not be an issue this year.

 

Yes it's true that Hackett was also an NFL rookie last year, and he deserves just as much of a chance to prove himself as Manuel does. I consider myself to be a fair person, and I hope that Hackett will succeed.

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He hasn't had a steady job since we were last in the playoffs.

yeah other then that Sirius gig he does daily.

 

The guy is at the point where he is just enjoying the ride. He loves football and it is his hobby. We should all be so lucky to be so in love with our hobby and make money from it. Brandt does it while retired.

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You make a lot of good points. As I stated before, I know that Manuel was not perfect, and I acknowledge that he made plenty of mistakes.

 

In regards to Chandler; my point was that I did not like seeing Chandler being used as an option where he runs to the sideline for a screen pass. That play had a very low percentage chance of working, and yet the Bills would continue to use that option. They may as well have lined up Chandler as a Fullback and handed the ball off to him.

 

My theory about the differences in the approach to Manuel as opposed to Lewis & Tuel may be incorrect. Perhaps Manuel was more hesitant and not as confident in his play as the others were. I hope that will not be an issue this year.

 

Yes it's true that Hackett was also an NFL rookie last year, and he deserves just as much of a chance to prove himself as Manuel does. I consider myself to be a fair person, and I hope that Hackett will succeed.

 

My apologies, I glossed over your point about Chandler. I'm not sure those were designed screens, but I'd have to go back and look for them. I know he caught a lot of balls in the flat as a dump off.

 

I agree and also don't like using Chandler as the primary option when running a route to the flat. I'm just not really sure that was the case. If memory serves, they were the result of EJ not allowing the play to develop, and/or simply taking a higher percentage throw when a better option was available downfield.

 

Here's some good analysis on Chandler and his targets, but it doesn't exactly address what other routes were available nor whether or not Chandler was the primary option. The author agrees sending Chandler to flat isn't the most efficient way to use him.

Part 1: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2014/4/8/5590978/scott-chandler-stats-targets-routes-from-2013-season

Part 2: http://www.buffalorumblings.com/buffalo-bills-analysis-all-22/2014/4/25/5648456/scott-chandler-stats-targets-routes-from-2013-season

 

Based how the offense looked as a whole, I'm less inclined to pin Chandler catching so many balls in the flat on Hackett as I am EJ. I'm going to assume that Hackett was hoping that EJ would find someone downfield on those plays, and that Chandler was the second or third option on those plays.

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