Safe bet: F.O. Play it safe in draft show capability to new owner(s)

[SJDK]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

Edited April 22, 2014 by SJDK

[Kirby Jackson]

It's an interesting thought. I think that position would be irrelevant though as long as the value is there. No one is going to question you if you take Mike Evans at 9. Chandler's contract is not big and he probably is a #2 TE. Ebron wouldn't raise red flags either. They may question you if you were to take Kony Ealy for example.

 

The flipside of the argument is that with ownership up in the air they may try to hit a home run and potentially raise the value of the franchise. If you drafted Clowney for example (or Manziel) you could potentially do just that. It is kind of that LeBron James effect.

 

[Mark80]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as we'll be year three. Thoughts?

 

If we go LB, it's going to be Mosley, not Barr.

[RyanC883]

It's an interesting thought. I think that position would be irrelevant though as long as the value is there. No one is going to question you if you take Mike Evans at 9. Chandler's contract is not big and he probably is a #2 TE. Ebron wouldn't raise red flags either. They may question you if you were to take Kony Ealy for example.

 

The flipside of the argument is that with ownership up in the air they may try to hit a home run and potentially raise the value of the franchise. If you drafted Clowney for example (or Manziel) you could potentially do just that. It is kind of that LeBron James effect.

 

Good points. I see the FO exploring all options and picking whoever they think will make the team the best the soonest. I think we take OT in the 1st round, TE in the second. DE in the 3rd. Just my guess. Hopefully trading back prior to taking OT.

 

If not, I could see Evans, OT, TE, defensive player.

[26CornerBlitz]

@JoeBuscaglia

Good read. I encourage the click. RT @BuffaloWins Is the 2014 season do or die for Whaley and Marrone? http://fb.me/6LKxYQTNW

[Buftex]

@JoeBuscaglia

Good read. I encourage the click. RT @BuffaloWins Is the 2014 season do or die for Whaley and Marrone? http://fb.me/6LKxYQTNW

 

One of the (bad) results of an ownership change right now, could be a house-cleaning. I am not necessarily sold on Marrone (jury is still out for me), but I really like Whaley. I am not realistically expecting a Super Bowl win this year, but I think this team has enough talent, they should be, at the very least, in the playoff hunt for 14-15 weeks this season. Hell, they might even make it. If not, I might be a little more doubtful about Marrone. I want to see Whaley get a fair shot at the helm...for the first time since Tom Donohoe took over, I feel like the Bills are on the right track. I would hate for somebody to blow things up, just for the sake of making changes.

Edited April 22, 2014 by Buftex

[nucci]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

Curious why you think there would be a shocking pick in the 1st place? One of the top players would be picked in 1st round and most likely a very good player in round 2.

[metzelaars_lives]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

How is a 6'5" stud WR who catches everything thrown in his direction a luxury pick? Let me ask everyone who thinks this way the following question: who would you rather have on your team right now- a good solid RT or Alshon Jeffery? Edited April 22, 2014 by metzelaars_lives

[Max997]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

 

I actually think the other is more possible as they may decide to take more of a chance then they normally would with the pressure to succeed and the future uncertain.

 

Do you really think the Bills are set at tackle?

Would Evans or Ebron really be considered a luxury pick?

Chandler would be a really good second TE to someone like Ebron but this year most likely would still be the number 1 TE and isnt making a lot of money so his contract wouldnt be questioned one way or the other.

[DC Greg]

We shall see. Something tells me Doug Whaley isn't the type who worries too much about playing it safe. If a guy is there who he thinks is the truth, at any position, I bet he pulls the trigger.

[TheFunPolice]

This is not a time to "play it safe"

 

Whaley needs to take the player he really wants because the new owner is going to judge him based on wins and losses.

 

So if you're Whaley it's time to swing for the fences and do the job your way. Nothing is worse than going down doing something other than what your gut tells you.

[Best Player Available]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

If jobs could be on the line. And, most likely are with new ownership. I would swing for the fences, and take a shocking pick. Say, a position like quarterback.

 

That's why I have had zero GM offers though. But, playing safe never got anybody anywhere that I'm aware of especially in the NFL.

[RussellDopeland]

I think "playing it safe" could lead to Whaley/Marrone's departures, or at the very least accelerate it. If I was the new owner, and had witnessed to Bills FO pass on a playmaker like an Evans or Ebron (if they were on the board) to draft a RT like a Lewan (which would be the personification of the "safe bet" you speak of), I would be quite convinced that they didn't have the ball$ to undertake the measures necessary to field a winning team. A "safe" pick (and RT would be a safe pick) will not improve this team by leaps and bounds. Adding playmakers potentially could do exactly that. For those advocates of "power football" who think that RT is the wise move, based on the notion that the game is moving in that direction (because of the success of Seattle), I ask you one thing: can you name the starting RT for the Seahawks? And when you figure that out, the next question that should be answered is in what round was this RT drafted? Certainly not in the top 10. Who was the Bills' last "great" RT? Probably Howard Ballard- an eleventh round draft choice. Safe pick= Right Tackle. Right Tackle= another 6-10 season. Safe pick= Whaley and Marrone seeking new employment.

[BillsBytheBay]

Playing safe = lost nerves. Lost nerves = new profession.

[Manther]

I think the Bills are steadily improving. I think if Whaley and company stay the course they are on, the Bills will be 9-7 this year or better. I agree we will be in the playoff hunt come week 14 and 15. If this happens I doubt a new owner that purchased the team would house clean in year one when it is our best year of the century. And, we are continuing to improve annually under this regime.

[SJDK]

How is a 6'5" stud WR who catches everything thrown in his direction a luxury pick? Let me ask everyone who thinks this way the following question: who would you rather have on your team right now- a good solid RT or Alshon Jeffery?

My trolling friend, I want Evans more than any other player actually. Read it again and maybe you can figure it out for yourself. Hint: it's called seeing different sides to a topic.

[DC Grid]

I don't think Whaley et al get anything out of playing it safe. They need a winner to have any hope of staying on with new ownership. To the extent a bold move gets them into the playoffs this year I think they wouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger. That said, I don't think drafting a stud WR to be the Bills true number one WR is a risky move at all. The only move I can't see them making this year is taking a shot at a falling QB like Bridgewater....because he won't pay dividends year one. Other than that I think all options are in play. Sadly I don't think Evans will be around at 9, so the top talents left on he board will be OTs Mathews / Lewyan (spelling?), QB Teddy B, and TE Ebron. Of these I'd bet they grab the remaining OT, not because it's safe but because the OL is a bit of a mess and dependable blocking could let the Bills ground game dominate and take pressure off EJ and the D. I'm not saying they'll be run first necessarily, but being able to guarantee positive yards would be huge for this team.

[klos63]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

Really makes no sense at all. What does playing it safe mean? Not making a ridiculous pick? I can't imagine they are thinking of new ownership when deciding which player to pick. If they want to improve their resume, you make good picks and then coach them well. I guess you are right in one aspect, if they picked a player not a value at #9 in a position they don't need - say Center..., yeah then they should worry about their jobs.

[SJDK]

Really makes no sense at all. What does playing it safe mean? Not making a ridiculous pick? I can't imagine they are thinking of new ownership when deciding which player to pick. If they want to improve their resume, you make good picks and then coach them well. I guess you are right in one aspect, if they picked a player not a value at #9 in a position they don't need - say Center..., yeah then they should worry about their jobs.

So it makes no sense and then you get it. C'mon. Anyway, to clarify for you... If our biggest need is offensive tackle and everyone knows our biggest need is offensive tackle and Robinson is somehow available, but... So is Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans ( this is to illustrate a point, I don't think that this is necessarily going to happen) and you pick Robinson, that would be "safe". Now if you instead pick one of the two receivers mentioned instead of Robinson because their happens to be some tackle in round five from some second rate college that your scouting department has convinced you can start, that would be a not "safe" move. Is that better? it's hypothetical and all but that's the type of situation I was eluding to.

 

Edited April 23, 2014 by SJDK

[Kirby Jackson]

 

So it makes no sense and then you get it. C'mon. Anyway, to clarify for you... If our biggest need is offensive tackle and everyone knows our biggest need is offensive tackle and Robinson is somehow available, but... So is Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans ( this is to illustrate a point, I don't think that this is necessarily going to happen) and you pick Robinson, that would be "safe". Now if you instead pick one of the two receivers mentioned instead of Robinson because their happens to be some tackle in round five from some second rate college that your scouting department has convinced you can start, that would be a not "safe" move. Is that better? it's hypothetical and all but that's the type of situation I was eluding to.

Watkins and Evans are a bad example though because they are also considered safe picks. A reach may concern a new owner but not value at a different position. I think that my Kony Ealy example makes a lot more sense.

[klos63]

So it makes no sense and then you get it. C'mon. Anyway, to clarify for you... If our biggest need is offensive tackle and everyone knows our biggest need is offensive tackle and Robinson is somehow available, but... So is Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans ( this is to illustrate a point, I don't think that this is necessarily going to happen) and you pick Robinson, that would be "safe". Now if you instead pick one of the two receivers mentioned instead of Robinson because their happens to be some tackle in round five from some second rate college that your scouting department has convinced you can start, that would be a not "safe" move. Is that better? it's hypothetical and all but that's the type of situation I was eluding to.

I was being sarcastic when I said that you are right in one aspect. It doesn't always come through in the written word. Drafting one of two franchise type WR in the draft would not be considered an unsafe pick. You're really stretching your argument with the reasoning being a round 5 pick from a second rate college will start at tackle - that boarders on ridiculous. You are trying to create a scenario that is so unlikely to occur it needn't be discussed. Basically you are saying, they probably won't do something obviously stupid, else they may make a bad impression on a prospective owner and lose their jobs. Yeah, you are on to something there. (that was sarcasm!).

 

I think "playing it safe" could lead to Whaley/Marrone's departures, or at the very least accelerate it. If I was the new owner, and had witnessed to Bills FO pass on a playmaker like an Evans or Ebron (if they were on the board) to draft a RT like a Lewan (which would be the personification of the "safe bet" you speak of), I would be quite convinced that they didn't have the ball$ to undertake the measures necessary to field a winning team. A "safe" pick (and RT would be a safe pick) will not improve this team by leaps and bounds. Adding playmakers potentially could do exactly that. For those advocates of "power football" who think that RT is the wise move, based on the notion that the game is moving in that direction (because of the success of Seattle), I ask you one thing: can you name the starting RT for the Seahawks? And when you figure that out, the next question that should be answered is in what round was this RT drafted? Certainly not in the top 10. Who was the Bills' last "great" RT? Probably Howard Ballard- an eleventh round draft choice. Safe pick= Right Tackle. Right Tackle= another 6-10 season. Safe pick= Whaley and Marrone seeking new employment.

Do you think Seattle won because of their Wide Receivers? I would think taking a WR who some are projecting at #2 would be an incredibly safe pick at #9(Watkins). Just because we may not be able to name the starting RT of Seattle, it doesn't decrease his value.

 

I think the term 'safe' is inappropriate here. Is it a good pick or a bad pick, and that will be determined after the player actually plays some games.

Edited April 23, 2014 by klos63

[KOKBILLS]

The more I think about it the more I am convincing myself that we won't see a shocking pick in the first round or two. Purely speculative but I believe Whaley & co. Will play it safe and not make a "spiller" type pick eg: surprise in a position where we are set. To me this means Tackle if Robinson or Matthews is available or Barr if the obvious top two defenders are gone. As much as I would love Evans size, our FO would have to answer to a new owner about making a luxury pick. I think picking Ebron would result in questions about chandlers contract and what they were thinking there.. It's year two for them so the pressure for results is already huge and with looming new ownership it may as well be year three. Thoughts?

 

Evans a luxury pick? A 6-5 WR that had 2500 yds and 17 TD's in only 2 SEC seasons with a 10 ft catch radius is a luxury?

Edited April 23, 2014 by KOKBILLS

[SJDK]

 

 

Evans a luxury pick? A 6-5 WR that had 2500 yds and 17 TD's in only 2 SEC seasons with a 10 ft catch radius is a luxury?

Wow, seriously? Could you not understand the context? That pick COULD ABSOLUTELY BE MISCONSTRUED AS A LUXARY PICK BY A NEW OWNER, not me or us but by a new owner who would wonder why we didn't take a "sure thing" OT. These things happen a lot, basically GMs get fired for this type of thing OFTEN. I could have used a great many different examples and I guess I should have picked something easier to imagine for you. Repeat: I don't think it's a luxury pick. I actually would like the Bills to take Evans. I also think that if they take him with one of the top left tackles available (I don't think it's likely either) they could lose their jobs that much easier when a new owner comes in.

 

In other words I'm speculating on how new ownership on the horizon may make them select differently In the draft

Edited April 23, 2014 by SJDK

[klos63]

Wow, seriously? Could you not understand the context? That pick COULD ABSOLUTELY BE MISCONSTRUED AS A LUXARY PICK BY A NEW OWNER, not me or us but by a new owner who would wonder why we didn't take a "sure thing" OT. These things happen a lot, basically GMs get fired for this type of thing OFTEN. I could have used a great many different examples and I guess I should have picked something easier to imagine for you. Repeat: I don't think it's a luxury pick. I actually would like the Bills to take Evans. I also think that if they take him with one of the top left tackles available (I don't think it's likely either) they could lose their jobs that much easier when a new owner comes in.

I would hope the new owner has a better understanding of the draft and the importance of the offensive line than you do. I doubt GM's get fired for making 'safe' picks, if that means building a great offensive line. They get fired for making bad picks. Picking a strong OT is never a bad thing to do. You can get all the great WR you can find but if you have a crappy offensive line, kiss the season goodbye. It's that simple.

[SJDK]

I would hope the new owner has a better understanding of the draft and the importance of the offensive line than you do. I doubt GM's get fired for making 'safe' picks, if that means building a great offensive line. They get fired for making bad picks. Picking a strong OT is never a bad thing to do. You can get all the great WR you can find but if you have a crappy offensive line, kiss the season goodbye. It's that simple.

So now you've contradicted yourself. So which way do you draft from those two options?

Edited April 23, 2014 by SJDK

[klos63]

So now you've contradicted yourself. So which way do you draft from those two options?

I don't believe I have contradicted myself, but my personal preference is OT. I think it's a higher priority than any other offensive position.

[KOKBILLS]

Wow, seriously? Could you not understand the context? That pick COULD ABSOLUTELY BE MISCONSTRUED AS A LUXARY PICK BY A NEW OWNER, not me or us but by a new owner who would wonder why we didn't take a "sure thing" OT. These things happen a lot, basically GMs get fired for this type of thing OFTEN. I could have used a great many different examples and I guess I should have picked something easier to imagine for you. Repeat: I don't think it's a luxury pick. I actually would like the Bills to take Evans. I also think that if they take him with one of the top left tackles available (I don't think it's likely either) they could lose their jobs that much easier when a new owner comes in.

 

In other words I'm speculating on how new ownership on the horizon may make them select differently In the draft

 

First off...no offense...But there's rarely a context I don't understand...We're just going to have to disagree on the bolded text and move on...I simply don't see that happening...If the Bills win Whaley will have a great chance to stay...If they lose...not so much...It won't be dependent on this pick...Certainly not dependent on this pick alone...

[TheFunPolice]

I hate the term "luxury pick"

 

What does that even mean? When I read it I see it as "We don't need an AMAZING superstar player! Just get us a right guard!"

 

The concept of a "luxury pick" is absurd. You are NEVER worse off taking a potentially incredible football player. We have enough "lunch pail" guys. Average at best, hard working, nose to the grindstone guys are good to fill out your team, but you are not winning anything without elite talent on your team as well.

[Kirby Jackson]

This is one of the strangest threads that I have ever seen on here. "Would a new owner fire his staff because they selected a guy at a position of need (Watkins) with the 9th pick that was the 2nd ranked player in the draft?" What?!? Not to mention, this is being portrayed as some sort of risk. If it isn't a safe pick it has to be a risky pick. If you want to make a point that OL is safe and WR is risky you should have used a boom or bust guy like Kelvin Benjamin for the example.

 

KOKBILLS covered it earlier but the record as well as the direction of the organization will determine who stays and who goes.

[SJDK]

This is one of the strangest threads that I have ever seen on here. "Would a new owner fire his staff because they selected a guy at a position of need (Watkins) with the 9th pick that was the 2nd ranked player in the draft?" What?!? Not to mention, this is being portrayed as some sort of risk. If it isn't a safe pick it has to be a risky pick. If you want to make a point that OL is safe and WR is risky you should have used a boom or bust guy like Kelvin Benjamin for the example.

 

KOKBILLS covered it earlier but the record as well as the direction of the organization will determine who stays and who goes.

So why did you have such a different response in the beginning of the thread Kirby?

 

 

 

First off...no offense...But there's rarely a context I don't understand...We're just going to have to disagree on the bolded text and move on...I simply don't see that happening...If the Bills win Whaley will have a great chance to stay...If they lose...not so much...It won't be dependent on this pick...Certainly not dependent on this pick alone...

Agreed but if we don't make the playoffs it's all in play.

 

This is one of the strangest threads that I have ever seen on here. "Would a new owner fire his staff because they selected a guy at a position of need (Watkins) with the 9th pick that was the 2nd ranked player in the draft?" What?!? Not to mention, this is being portrayed as some sort of risk. If it isn't a safe pick it has to be a risky pick. If you want to make a point that OL is safe and WR is risky you should have used a boom or bust guy like Kelvin Benjamin for the example.

 

KOKBILLS covered it earlier but the record as well as the direction of the organization will determine who stays and who goes.

Except OL is a bigger need than WR, so it's riskier because of that.

 

Obviously from the link above I'm not the only one who feels that the premise of this thread is a legitimate one. Say what you want about my examples but I stand by the fact that the offensive line is our most glaring need and if they don't address it successfully(wins/losses) this off season in the draft or free agency ( pretty much

too late), a new owner will probably fire the Doug's.

Edited April 23, 2014 by SJDK

[Kirby Jackson]

 

So why did you have such a different response in the beginning of the thread Kirby?

 

 

Agreed but if we don't make the playoffs it's all in play.

 

 

Except OL is a bigger need than WR, so it's riskier because of that.

 

Obviously from the link above I'm not the only one who feels that the premise of this thread is a legitimate one. Say what you want about my examples but I stand by the fact that the offensive line is our most glaring need and if they don't address it successfully(wins/losses) this off season in the draft or free agency ( pretty much

too late), a new owner will probably fire the Doug's.

I thought that the thread was going to be about can a reach impact a new owners thoughts on the management? Would they view that as bold or careless? That is an interesting thought. When we start talking about guys valued much higher than where the Bills pick it doesn't make any sense. If the conversation moved to Ealy or Mosley or anyone that may be considered a reach at 9 it would have been interesting.

[thewildrabbit]

One of the (bad) results of an ownership change right now, could be a house-cleaning. I am not necessarily sold on Marrone (jury is still out for me), but I really like Whaley.

 

I am not realistically expecting a Super Bowl win this year, but I think this team has enough talent, they should be, at the very least, in the playoff hunt for 14-15 weeks this season. Hell, they might even make it. If not, I might be a little more doubtful about Marrone. I want to see Whaley get a fair shot at the helm...for the first time since Tom Donohoe took over, I feel like the Bills are on the right track. I would hate for somebody to blow things up, just for the sake of making changes.

I really like what Whaley did with the defense in the draft and in free agency last year, and again in free agency this year...for the defense. While the jury is still out on EJ, I think eventually he could be very good.

 

As much as I like what Whaley did for the defense, I absolutely abhor what he did with the O line last year, and this year so far. It remains to be seen what he does in the draft tho, and he could really turn things around with this years draft.

 

If the Bills enter the season with the status quo, and start losing again. Then I hope new ownership sweeps the org clean from Brandon to the ball boys.

[SJDK]

I really like what Whaley did with the defense in the draft and in free agency last year, and again in free agency this year...for the defense. While the jury is still out on EJ, I think eventually he could be very good.

 

As much as I like what Whaley did for the defense, I absolutely abhor what he did with the O line last year, and this year so far. It remains to be seen what he does in the draft tho, and he could really turn things around with this years draft.

 

If the Bills enter the season with the status quo, and start losing again. Then I hope new ownership sweeps the org clean from Brandon to the ball boys.

I like the whole staff also, but I think you are right on. I hope they would give this crew that third year though