QB turmoil possible in Buffalo

[Beerball]

Two responses:

 

(1) As for putting words in your mouth, I don't see where I did that in what you quoted. You absolutely have advocated picking a QB in the first round after drafting one in the first round the year before. As for reasons, you originally advocated it for "competition." I rememeber it well as I responded to it. Now, it is if they see someone "who they think could be the guy." Let's just say this, you certainly have advocated taking a QB in the first round under "certain conditions." So, what I wrote was true.

 

(2) The FO apparently has found someone "who they think could be the guy" and have decided the caliber of QB they think he will be. They have said so publicly and have named him starting QB in 2014. Since you acknowledge that they are experts, and that is their opinion, then why again should they pick a QB in the first round this year?

when you propose to draft a QB early in the first round after selecting a QB in the first round the year before

What I have said previously and I'll repeat again for you is: if the FO sees a QB that they feel is "the guy" then they better take him regardless of round.

 

Read my response to Doc. My opinion is that Manuel has a long way to go. Yes, I think that there is a strong likelihood that the Bills were wrong. Trouble is they backed themselves into a corner. They had to take a QB last draft because they hadn't prepared in previous seasons.

 

What position will the Bills be in next draft if Manuel is injured again this season, or he doesn't progress? Are you comfortable with Tuel? Lewis? Dixon? If there is a QB available regardless of round who the FO likes they need to take him.

 

Why are you against competition at the QB position? Or, do you believe that we don't achieve our best when we are pushed?

[billsfan1959]

What I have said previously and I'll repeat again for you is: if the FO sees a QB that they feel is "the guy" then they better take him regardless of round.

 

Read my response to Doc. My opinion is that Manuel has a long way to go. Yes, I think that there is a strong likelihood that the Bills were wrong. Trouble is they backed themselves into a corner. They had to take a QB last draft because they hadn't prepared in previous seasons.

 

What position will the Bills be in next draft if Manuel is injured again this season, or he doesn't progress? Are you comfortable with Tuel? Lewis? Dixon? If there is a QB available regardless of round who the FO likes they need to take him.

 

Why are you against competition at the QB position? Or, do you believe that we don't achieve our best when we are pushed?

 

I absolutely believe in the concept that competition tends to make people better. I also believe there is no concept that is universally applied in all situations. There is a time and a place for everything. You are welcome to go back a page and read my post where I explained my reasons for why I believe, IMHO, that bringing in a QB to compete with EJ this year is not the best course of action for EJ or the team.

 

As I also previously wrote, I understand your position that "if the FO sees a QB that they feel is "the guy" then "they better take him." Now as far as "regardless of round," I think that is a matter of semantics, and backing away a bit from many of your previous posts. If your stance is that if they see a QB who they feel is "the guy," then they need to take him - then it stands to reason that if a QB meeting that requirement is available to them, then it would first occur in round one, which, according to your logic, is when they should take him. Unless, of course, you forsee a situation in the draft where they reach the third round and all of a sudden get the feeling that a QB who is still available is "the guy."

[Doc]

I would be inclined to agree with you if you didn't paint all who disagree with you as "EJ bashers" who "are completely set on the fact that he is a bust". There's a middle ground here...

 

Of course no one knows how he will turn out. I have to say he may be a good startign QB at some point. But simply pointing out the obvious concerns and liabilities that have arisen thus far (accuracy, mechanics, durability) in the top QB drafted doesn't mean all such posters are "hating" on the guy.

 

These are legit concerns that few predicted at the beginning of the season.

 

 

 

I have to admit that Manziel intrigues me. The rest I have hardly seen.

 

And for a guy who was carrying JPL's (who essentially could have strolled in from Tulane wearing an "I'm a bust, guys" T-shirt and you still wouldn't have caught on) jock until well after he was playing in the UFL, you are barking a lot about Barkley, a guy who hasn't bumped one of the hottest QBs in the league last year out of the starting spot. Rest assured that if Philly had drafted EJ, he would be in Barkley's spot right now.

So says the guy who was carrying Matt Leinart's jock. As for that "one of hottest QBs in the league," did you happen to catch his rookie season? And if EJ were on the Eagles, Barkley would be on a PS somewhere.

I have never used the word replace in any form regarding Manuel, please stop trying to put words in my mouth. I do not know whether Manuel will be successful. Right now I'd put the odds at 30%. Why? Injuries. Mechanics. Vision. Confidence. Speed at which he moves through his progressions. Pocket awareness.

 

I'm not ready to anoint him anything (starter, bust or anything in between). He needs to get better fast and he needs competition.

Again a rookie QB isn't going to be getting many reps, what with Lewis and Tuel ahead of him. So he won't be providing much competition.

What I have said previously and I'll repeat again for you is: if the FO sees a QB that they feel is "the guy" then they better take him regardless of round.

 

Read my response to Doc. My opinion is that Manuel has a long way to go. Yes, I think that there is a strong likelihood that the Bills were wrong. Trouble is they backed themselves into a corner. They had to take a QB last draft because they hadn't prepared in previous seasons.

 

What position will the Bills be in next draft if Manuel is injured again this season, or he doesn't progress? Are you comfortable with Tuel? Lewis? Dixon? If there is a QB available regardless of round who the FO likes they need to take him.

 

Why are you against competition at the QB position? Or, do you believe that we don't achieve our best when we are pushed?

If EJ gets injured, are you comfortable with a rookie QB who was the 4th or later best prospect?

[Beerball]

Again a rookie QB isn't going to be getting many reps, what with Lewis and Tuel ahead of him. So he won't be providing much competition. Manuel's snaps last off season say hi. Why do you assume that a draft pick would immediately drop to the bottom of the chart?

 

If EJ gets injured, are you comfortable with a rookie QB who was the 4th or later best prospect? I don't like having to say this, but, isn't that we basically have in EJ? You can argue the round I suppose. Some would say first, some second, some third and some fourth. I think the average would probably fall somewhere between 2 and 3. Not such a drop off from your ???

[dave mcbride]

I believe most people who disagreed (myself included) were "vehemently" opposed to drafting a QB in the first round. My response to a couple of the arguments were and are as follows:

 

(1) You draft a QB available to you who is better than the one you have: There isn't a QB in this draft who will be available at #9 (some might say even at #1) who is close to being a "slam dunk" as far as being a good NFL QB, much less a great NFL QB. Every one of them has as many question marks as EJ did coming out.

 

(2) Competition: There is a reason that, historically, people in the NFL who know a lot more about football than us have decided not to consecutively draft QBs in the 1st round. And, please, I don't want to hear the example of the Cowboys drafting Troy Aikman #1 and then drafting Steve Walsh #1 in the suppemental draft. Walsh was drafted purely for trade value. There was no real competition as Aikman was always going to be the starting QB. Even if, by some chance, you believe there was real competition, it doesn't support the argument as it certainly didn't make Aikman better. His first two years in the NFL were as bad or worse than EJ's first year - and Aikman's numbers didn't improve until after the Cowboys traded Walsh. I think most GMs and coaches view it as a recipe for disaster. The first time the incumbent throws a bad pass or makes a critical mistake, fans would be clamoring for the new guy - and every media session would be filled with questions about the QB situation.

 

 

You do realize what the Cowboys ended up getting for Walsh, correct? A first and third in 1991 and a second in 1992. Their drafts from those years were incredible: they took Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, and Kelvin Pritchett (never played for the Cowboys, but a good 14-year pro) in the first round in 1991 (hard to tell whether they took Harper or Pritchett with the Saints pick given the Cowboys' constant movement around draft time) and Erik Williams with the Saints' pick in round 3. They also snagged Jimmy Smith and Darren Woodson with pick numbers 36 and 37 (second round) in 1992. And despite what Jimmy Johnson says now, I'm pretty sure he wasn't entirely convinced that Aikman was on the road to the hall of fame when he drafted Walsh.

 

Anyway, drafting Walsh was nothing but a completely brilliant move by the Cowboys.

Edited February 19, 2014 by dave mcbride

[billsfan1959]

You do realize what the Cowboys ended up getting for Walsh, correct? A first and third in 1991 and a second in 1992. Their drafts from those years were incredible: they took Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, and Kelvin Pritchett (never played for the Cowboys, but a good 14-year pro) in the first round in 1991 (hard to tell whether they took Harper or Pritchett with the Saints pick given the Cowboys' constant movement around draft time) and Erik Williams with the Saints' pick in round 3. They also snagged Jimmy Smith and Darren Woodson with pick numbers 36 and 37 (second round) in 1992. And despite what Jimmy Johnson says now, I'm pretty sure he wasn't entirely convinced that Aikman was on the road to the hall of fame when he drafted Walsh.

 

Anyway, drafting Walsh was nothing but a completely brilliant move by the Cowboys.

 

Absolutely a brilliant move. As I stated in my post, Walsh was drafted purely for trade value. That wasn't my point. A while back, the situation of drafting Aikman #1 and Walsh #1 in the supplemental draft was used as an example of when a team has drafted consecutive #1 QBs, and the insinuation that the competition made Aikman better.

[Kirby Jackson]

If there is a QB that they believe to be better than EJ than of course they should draft them. I believe that there are 2 guys in this draft (Manziel & Bridgewater) that I think fit that criteria. There is little to no chance that either of them are on the board when they pick.

 

I am against picking another project because all that will do is stunt both of their development. If they want to take a late round guy with a high floor and a low ceiling (someone like Murray) I am okay with it. He can play in a pinch and develop into a backup. I don't see drafting someone like Garrapolo and trying to develop either he or EJ. It is too difficult to develop two guys at once IMO (if that even makes sense).

 

I am not that confident that EJ will develop into the franchise guy for the reasons that I mentioned earlier. I want nothing more than for him to prove me wrong but I try to remain objective when analyzing all of the Bills players. If he develops this team is on the verge of something special because there should be a good deal of talent on the roster. If he doesn't, they can look to next year and address the position. It could be a vet that hits the market (like Alex Smith last year). Some thoughts on that front: Cutler, Bradford, Eli, Ben, Rivers, Locker or maybe even Stafford. I could see scenarios where any one of those guys became available for one reason or another. The other option would be to sellout in the draft and target Mariota, Winston or Hundley (Mariota being my favorite).

 

It would be so much easier if EJ just developed into a good starting NFL QB. If he can give you what Dalton does (regular season Dalton) there is no excuse for this team to not be in the playoffs.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Kirby Jackson

[Doc]

Again a rookie QB isn't going to be getting many reps, what with Lewis and Tuel ahead of him. So he won't be providing much competition. Manuel's snaps last off season say hi. Why do you assume that a draft pick would immediately drop to the bottom of the chart?

 

If EJ gets injured, are you comfortable with a rookie QB who was the 4th or later best prospect? I don't like having to say this, but, isn't that we basically have in EJ? You can argue the round I suppose. Some would say first, some second, some third and some fourth. I think the average would probably fall somewhere between 2 and 3. Not such a drop off from your ???

EJ was the first QB taken and the Bills loved him. They planned on having him be the starter from the get-go and the snaps reflected that. And since it was a new scheme, they were all on level footing WRT that, although Kolb had the experience factor. A rookie won't have a year in the system under his belt and won't be given the same treatment.

You do realize what the Cowboys ended up getting for Walsh, correct? A first and third in 1991 and a second in 1992. Their drafts from those years were incredible: they took Russell Maryland, Alvin Harper, and Kelvin Pritchett (never played for the Cowboys, but a good 14-year pro) in the first round in 1991 (hard to tell whether they took Harper or Pritchett with the Saints pick given the Cowboys' constant movement around draft time) and Erik Williams with the Saints' pick in round 3. They also snagged Jimmy Smith and Darren Woodson with pick numbers 36 and 37 (second round) in 1992. And despite what Jimmy Johnson says now, I'm pretty sure he wasn't entirely convinced that Aikman was on the road to the hall of fame when he drafted Walsh.

 

Anyway, drafting Walsh was nothing but a completely brilliant move by the Cowboys.

By taking Walsh in the 1989 supplemental draft, they lost the first overall pick in the 1990 draft. So while they got the 15th overall pick in 1991 (was JJ some kind of Jedi, making GM's make idiotic moves?) plus a 3rd and a 2nd the year later, and it eventually worked out for them, you could argue that it was a mistake.

[Beerball]

EJ was the first QB taken and the Bills loved him. They planned on having him be the starter from the get-go and the snaps reflected that. And since it was a new scheme, they were all on level footing WRT that, although Kolb had the experience factor. A rookie won't have a year in the system under his belt and won't be given the same treatment.

Those are interesting assumptions. The reality of the situation, as I see it, is that the Bills through neglect were forced to take a QB first last draft. Unfortunately, the available talent wasn't there. I'd say that they liked Manuel best. I have no idea of their love.

[Doc]

Those are interesting assumptions. The reality of the situation, as I see it, is that the Bills through neglect were forced to take a QB first last draft. Unfortunately, the available talent wasn't there. I'd say that they liked Manuel best. I have no idea of their love.

Well as you said, they split the starting reps with Kolb, which tells me they wanted to give him an equal shot at starting. And they knew there was a great chance he'd be there at 8 and again at 16 seeing as only the Bills and Jets were looking for starting QB's, if even since the Jets waited until the 2nd to take Geno, the guy everyone assumed they were taking all along. In this draft, they don't know if they'll be getting the best to 6th best QB prospect.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Doc

[Mr. WEO]

I didn't. I said "EJ Bashers" are the ones who are completely set. There are some like that. I didn't say everyone who disagrees with me is an EJ Basher.

 

You haven't identified any other subset yet...

[dave mcbride]

Absolutely a brilliant move. As I stated in my post, Walsh was drafted purely for trade value. That wasn't my point. A while back, the situation of drafting Aikman #1 and Walsh #1 in the supplemental draft was used as an example of when a team has drafted consecutive #1 QBs, and the insinuation that the competition made Aikman better.

 

Actually, I think that I was the first to bring this up months and months ago in a thread involving Badolbeelz. I think he focused on the competition thing (I didn't), but we both agreed that you need to keep taking QBs until you were sure you actually had one. The jury is out on Manuel, obviously, and while I don't think it's likely he'll be a star, it's not impossible and I'm not as down on him as most. If he doesn't end up being a star, though, the Bills are going nowhere. That's a fact.

 

EJ was the first QB taken and the Bills loved him. They planned on having him be the starter from the get-go and the snaps reflected that. And since it was a new scheme, they were all on level footing WRT that, although Kolb had the experience factor. A rookie won't have a year in the system under his belt and won't be given the same treatment.

 

By taking Walsh in the 1989 supplemental draft, they lost the first overall pick in the 1990 draft. So while they got the 15th overall pick in 1991 (was JJ some kind of Jedi, making GM's make idiotic moves?) plus a 3rd and a 2nd the year later, and it eventually worked out for them, you could argue that it was a mistake.

 

Recall that they went into the 1990 draft with a bunch of those Vikings picks already, and that they used some of those picks to move up to the #1 overall spot in 1991 (in a trade with NE) to draft Russell Maryland.

 

http://en.wikipedia....el_Walker_trade

Edited February 19, 2014 by dave mcbride

[RuntheDamnBall]

Actually, I think that I was the first to bring this up months and months ago in a thread involving Badolbeelz. I think he focused on the competition thing (I didn't), but we both agreed that you need to keep taking QBs until you were sure you actually had one. The jury is out on Manuel, obviously, and while I don't think it's likely he'll be a star, it's not impossible and I'm not as down on him as most. If he doesn't end up being a star, though, the Bills are going nowhere. That's a fact.

 

 

 

Recall that they went into the 1990 draft with a bunch of those Vikings picks already ...

 

http://en.wikipedia....el_Walker_trade

Yep - They basically had a boatload of chips to wheel and deal with. The Walker trade set them up. The Walsh pick and trade basically amounts to a trade down from #1 to #15, plus a 2nd and 3rd.

[FireChan]

EJ was the first QB taken and the Bills loved him. They planned on having him be the starter from the get-go and the snaps reflected that. And since it was a new scheme, they were all on level footing WRT that, although Kolb had the experience factor. A rookie won't have a year in the system under his belt and won't be given the same treatment.

 

By taking Walsh in the 1989 supplemental draft, they lost the first overall pick in the 1990 draft. So while they got the 15th overall pick in 1991 (was JJ some kind of Jedi, making GM's make idiotic moves?) plus a 3rd and a 2nd the year later, and it eventually worked out for them, you could argue that it was a mistake.

 

Well as you said, they split the starting reps with Kolb, which tells me they wanted to give him an equal shot at starting. And they knew there was a great chance he'd be there at 8 and again at 16 seeing as only the Bills and Jets were looking for starting QB's, if even since the Jets waited until the 2nd to take Geno, the guy everyone assumed they were taking all along. In this draft, they don't know if they'll be getting the best to 6th best QB prospect.

 

Giving him an equal shot at starting means they planned on starting him from the get-go? That doesn't make sense.

[YoloinOhio]

You haven't identified any other subset yet...

I didn't need to, I was only talking about the two groups as I said I don't bother responding to the "my mind is made up crowd." Not everyone has to fit into a specific subset. There is one that I feel refuses to be open-minded. That is the one I mentioned. There is another that seems very open-minded, and that is the other one I mentioned. Are you in the middle? Congrats.

[SactoBillFan]

 

Recall that they went into the 1990 draft with a bunch of those Vikings picks already, and that they used some of those picks to move up to the #1 overall spot in 1991 (in a trade with NE) to draft Russell Maryland.

 

http://en.wikipedia....el_Walker_trade

The Walker trade was the brilliant move by the Cowboys. Didn't turn out so good for the Vikings.

[Buftex]

What game or games did you consider Geno to be at his best?

 

He played well against Atlanta, Buffalo (1st game) and especially Cleveland. I am not knocking EJ, mind you... I am still very hopeful that this kid is going to be very good. And when I made my original comment I was kind of forgetting EJ's second game against the Jets, where he played his best game.

 

SInce everyone seems hell-bent on comparing the two, the slight edge I would give Geno over EJ (and this might be my mis-perception), Smith looks a little more sure of himself. Of course, I realize, Smith had some really ****ty games...really ****ty. But, I can't put my finger on it..the thing that surprised me the most about EJ this year was his tentativeness. I didn't see him play a lot in college (only his "best" college games, re-aired after the draft) but what I did see, I wasn't concerned about this. Smith, on the other hand, just seems to move more fluidly, and moving around in the pocket seems to be a little more natural to him. His decision making certainly needs some work, but he throws a nice long ball, and just doesn't seem as likely to overthrow a guy who is wide open...throws well on the run.

 

I am thinking (hoping) with some more starts under his belt, EJ will get more comfortable...but he just looked a little stiff out there, at times, to me. When Smith was "feeling it" and having success (again, I am mindful that had some truly horrible games as well), he seemed to feed off of it.

 

One thing I really like about EJ, as has likely been noted by others, even when he didn't play great in a number of games, he seemed to play well at the end, in close games. That is a real good sign to me.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Buftex

[Doc]

Giving him an equal shot at starting means they planned on starting him from the get-go? That doesn't make sense.

I meant to say, and should have said, that they hoped he would start from the get-go. Hence the equal reps.

[SRQ_BillsFan]

The idea that EJ doesn't have to compete for his job is asinine. If anything, he has to compete harder to keep hold of #1 status on the depth chart.

 

The idea that the Bills wouldn't draft a better QB is also asinine. If there is one available at 9, they would take him. The problem is people think that a BETTER QB is gonna be available at 9. Just who that is going to be, I'd like to know. Separate all the hype from what scouts really know, and that QB won't be there at 9.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

In an open competition if Manuel doesn't play well it would not be impossible for Thad to beat him out. However if they figure in "potential" I am not sure it would ever be a open competition. But if people want to compare their numbers and point out how they were close, then in theory he has competition. Unless of course they just hand it to him and name him the starter, which seems to be the case.

 

As much as people want to point to this being his second year and having a full year plus training camp which should make him better. Thad should also be improved using the same logic.

 

Like anyone else, I hope EJ takes a big leap forward and we forget about these posts altogether.

 

[K-9]

In an open competition if Manuel doesn't play well it would not be impossible for Thad to beat him out. However if they figure in "potential" I am not sure it would ever be a open competition. But if people want to compare their numbers and point out how they were close, then in theory he has competition. Unless of course they just hand it to him and name him the starter, which seems to be the case.

 

As much as people want to point to this being his second year and having a full year plus training camp which should make him better. Thad should also be improved using the same logic.

 

Like anyone else, I hope EJ takes a big leap forward and we forget about these posts altogether.

 

Potential has little to do with it. It's all about results. All EJ Manuel is guaranteed at this point is getting the 1st team reps INITIALLY. That's the only advantage he has in that regard, a chance to make the first impression. He has to continue to impress or others will get the opportunity. If Lewis or anyone else does better, their reps with the ones will increase. There's no bullschitting the coaches or other players. Last year, EJ clearly outperformed Kolb, Tuel, and anyone else at the time and earned the starting position. It's his to lose, but it isn't his to keep unless he does just that.

 

GO BILLS!!!