EJ knee surgery, Tim Graham questions, draft QB?

[Kelly the Dog]

 

Wilson outplayed Flynn in pre-season and showed that his height, which was the only negative about him, wasn't a factor. But he's a lone exception and you won't find too many teams going all-in on a 5'11" QB just because Wilson succeeded. And he was what, the 5th QB taken?

Wilson outplayed Flynn only because Flynn was hurt and didn't play in the third preseason game. I'm fairly certain no one, with the possible exception of harbaugh, would have started Wilson and then kept him in after the slow start. He didn't blow people away in preseason or the first few games. Pete Carroll made a completely unconventional decision. Harbaugh, too, started karpernick when alex smith was 12-1 or something. Few coaches if any would have done that, but they gambled on a QB because it's the most important position and their hunch proved to be the difference.

[billsfan1959]

Well, no coaches would start a 3rd round runt of a QB over a 25 mil prize free agent QB until one did, and that team is winning the Super Bowl 22-0 right now. The reason they don't IMO is because it would appear (although wouldn't be true) that they would be admitting they were wrong the year before and that the guy they picked they are giving up on, even though, again, neither of those are likely to be true.

 

That team is in the Super Bowl and winning the Super Bowl because of their defense, not Russell Wilson

[Solomon Grundy]

Hey Tim, I hope you're watching the Super Bowl because a QB is the least of the Bills priorities!

[Kelly the Dog]

 

 

That team is in the Super Bowl and winning the Super Bowl because of their defense, not Russell Wilson

They wouldn't be there with Matt Flynn. Wilson is a stud.

[Superb Owl]

I'm of the opinion that:

1] back-up QB is a very important position on the team. I'm not convinced we have one. it's possible that EJ is a great back-up QB but not a star QB.

 

2] I'm not convinced that EJ is going to be a star. If I HAD to bet, it's less than 33% or so. Any QB even high in the first round is less than 50%.

 

3] I'm also of the opinion that it's extremely hard to find a star QB outside of drafting one #1. It's the only position of 22 that is true of.

 

4] I'm lastly of the opinion that it doesn't matter what round you draft good players in, if they're good players they're good players, and a great number of #1 draft picks are busts at all positions.

 

Given those four opinions, and looking at them all together in relationship with the draft, it may not be a bad idea to draft a QB #1 in two consecutive years.

 

IMO, Luck, Bridgewater, and Winston are way above 50% so it's worth losing out for them if you're sure they will declare

 

An important point that doesn't get mentioned... is after one year, if you see certain red flags, what certainty can you have that a QB will not pan out?

 

I think it is high, like 80+%. So I think a good GM could move on after one year if he can stomach the 10-20% chance of being wrong.

 

And the reward is getting rid of the 80+% chance you are wasting that second year.

[billsfan1959]

They wouldn't be there with Matt Flynn. Wilson is a stud.

 

They may not be there with Flynn; however, they would probably be there with a decent quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over. Wilson has not had to carry this team at all this year. He has played well for the most part - but also had some pretty bad games. He is young and talented - but he is not yet in the upper echelon of quarterbacks. Make no mistake, this team got to the Superbowl because they had the best defense in the NFL and the number 4 rushing offense. They also have won in the playoffs because of their defense.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There is one player on that list who played on a SB winner......Suggs........who missed most of that season with a torn achilles. Von Miller's team is in the SB but he is on IR and made a modest impact this year after a long suspension prior to tearing up his knee.

 

LB's rarely change the fortunes of a franchise.

 

QB's do it all the time.

 

Not really a list of greats, btw.

 

*sigh* AJ Hawk. Green Bay 2010. He was playing. Impactful? "As of December 2013, Hawk has either led the team or finished second in tackles in six of his seven seasons in Green Bay." I would say there are at least 5 LB on that list of 10 who have been impactful players: Von Miller, Mayo, Hawk, Suggs, Urlacher.

 

I'm starting to see a pattern. You make a point - say, the implication that drafting a LB in the top 10 is foolish, said LB just depreciates immediately. This point is part of your overall thesis that the Bills are a horrendously run franchise who do stupid things that successful franchises don't do, such as draft LB when they really need a QB? Someone addresses it, say, by showing that a number of currently successful franchises (Denver, Seattle, Green Bay, Cincinnati etc) have made just that choice - Seattle in 2009 for example, Denver in 2011 for another. Rather than acknowledge the point under discussion, you change up the scope of the topic.

 

Now they have to be players who "change the fortunes of the franchise" and have played on a Superbowl winner. Fine, BadOL, let's have your list of QB who have been drafted in the top 10 picks and have "changed the fortunes of the franchise"? It should be easy for you to generate, because QB turn the franchise around all the time, right? And let's agree on "turn the franchise around" - that means a pattern of success, not one playoff appearance in a spate of losing seasons?

 

The fact is, many of the young QB who have had success recently were not drafted in the 1st round (Wilson, Kaepernick, perhaps Dalton). And many of the QB who have been drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round recently have not yet found success and certainly haven't "changed the fortunes of the franchise", even if they are arguably capable NFL QB who might succeed with a strong D and other pieces around them.

 

Here is a list of 21 QB who were drafted in the 1st round in the same interval as the LB list I pulled. I would perhaps give you 3 on this list who "changed the fortunes of the franchise". There are several more who have been successful players, but hardly "carry the franchise and change its fortunes" guys and several more who are arguably good players but have yet to find success in the NFL, possibly due to lack of other talent. Moreover, I would argue that the 3 QB who have "turned the franchise around" were truly heralded as being something special when they came out - in other words, simply grabbing a talented college QB in the top 10 picks of the 1st round may be neither necessary or sufficient.

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 1 2012 1 1 Andrew Luck QB IND 2012 2013 0 2 2 27 32 32 22-10-0 682 1197 8196 46 27 125 632 9 Stanford 2 2012 1 2 Robert Griffin QB WAS 2012 2013 0 1 2 28 28 28 12-16-0 532 849 6403 36 17 206 1304 7 Baylor 3 2012 1 8 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 2012 2013 0 0 2 20 32 32 15-17-0 637 1072 7207 36 30 89 449 3 Texas A&M 4 2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB CAR 2011 2013 0 2 3 49 48 48 25-23-0 882 1475 11299 64 42 364 2032 28 Auburn 5 2011 1 8 Jake Locker QB TEN 2011 2013 0 0 2 13 23 18 8-10-0 322 563 3974 22 15 73 502 4 Washington 6 2011 1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB JAX 2011 2013 0 0 3 8 28 27 5-22-0 414 777 4357 22 24 75 186 0 Missouri 7 2010 1 1 Sam Bradford QB STL 2010 2013 0 0 4 26 49 49 18-30-1 1032 1760 11065 59 38 97 247 2 Oklahoma 8 2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford QB DET 2009 2013 0 0 4 44 61 61 24-37-0 1485 2497 17457 109 73 118 392 9 Georgia 9 2009 1 5 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 2009 2013 0 0 4 26 62 62 33-29-0 1028 1867 12092 68 69 125 342 12 USC 10 2008 1 3 Matt Ryan QB ATL 2008 2013 0 2 6 76 94 94 60-34-0 2093 3288 23472 153 77 219 555 5 Boston Col. 11 2007 1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB OAK 2007 2009 0 0 2 6 31 25 7-18-0 354 680 4083 18 23 40 175 1 LSU 12 2006 1 3 Vince Young QB TEN 2006 2011 0 2 4 33 60 50 31-19-0 755 1304 8964 46 51 282 1459 12 Texas 13 2006 1 10 Matt Leinart QB ARI 2006 2012 0 0 1 12 33 18 8-10-0 366 641 4065 15 21 47 89 2 USC 14 2005 1 1 Alex Smith QB SFO 2005 2013 0 1 8 48 95 90 49-40-1 1598 2685 17593 104 70 288 1192 5 Utah 15 2004 1 1 Eli Manning QB SDG 2004 2013 0 3 9 89 153 151 85-66-0 2929 5008 35345 229 171 231 431 4 Mississippi 16 2004 1 4 Philip Rivers QB NYG 2004 2013 0 5 8 107 132 128 79-49-0 2646 4108 32369 221 104 249 410 3 North Carolina St. 17 2003 1 1 Carson Palmer QB CIN 2004 2013 0 2 9 88 138 137 64-73-0 2930 4682 33739 213 152 240 375 7 USC 18 2003 1 7 Byron Leftwich QB JAX 2003 2012 0 0 3 33 60 50 24-26-0 930 1605 10532 58 42 137 415 10 Marshall 19 2002 1 1 David Carr QB HOU 2002 2012 0 0 5 44 94 79 23-56-0 1353 2267 14452 65 71 305 1328 9 Fresno St. 20 2002 1 3 Joey Harrington QB DET 2002 2007 0 0 6 30 81 76 26-50-0 1424 2538 14693 79 85 142 402 0 Oregon 21 2001 1 1 Michael Vick QB ATL 2001 2013 0 4 8 91 128 109 58-48-1 1703 3030 21489 128 85 827 5857 36 Virginia Tech

 

That team is in the Super Bowl and winning the Super Bowl because of their defense, not Russell Wilson

 

Wilson has shown some flashes tonight, no doubt. But it seems to be the Percy Harvin and Legion of Boom show.

[LB3]

 

 

They may not be there with Flynn; however, they would probably be there with a decent quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over. Wilson has not had to carry this team at all this year. He has played well for the most part - but also had some pretty bad games. He is young and talented - but he is not yet in the upper echelon of quarterbacks. Make no mistake, this team got to the Superbowl because they had the best defense in the NFL and the number 4 rushing offense. They also have won in the playoffs because of their defense.

 

Was their defense the main reason? Yes. But, their offensive line has been bad and their top two receiving weapons were out almost all year. Without a QB who can scramble well and still keep his eyes downfield so throwing the ball was a threat, they would have been in trouble. Give credit where it is due.

[4merper4mer]

They wouldn't be there with Matt Flynn. Wilson is a stud.

 

Agreed and I didn't think much of the Bills picking Wilson when he came out. I sure was wrong about that.

[Mr. WEO]

 

 

 

Wilson has shown some flashes tonight, no doubt. But it seems to be the Percy Harvin and Legion of Boom show.

 

Say what?

 

Harvin certainly made the most of his 4 touches, but Wilson did everything he had to, made all the throws, converted third downs, no errors.

[BADOLBILZ]

*sigh* AJ Hawk. Green Bay 2010. He was playing. Impactful? "As of December 2013, Hawk has either led the team or finished second in tackles in six of his seven seasons in Green Bay." I would say there are at least 5 LB on that list of 10 who have been impactful players: Von Miller, Mayo, Hawk, Suggs, Urlacher.

 

I'm starting to see a pattern. You make a point - say, the implication that drafting a LB in the top 10 is foolish, said LB just depreciates immediately. This point is part of your overall thesis that the Bills are a horrendously run franchise who do stupid things that successful franchises don't do, such as draft LB when they really need a QB? Someone addresses it, say, by showing that a number of currently successful franchises (Denver, Seattle, Green Bay, Cincinnati etc) have made just that choice - Seattle in 2009 for example, Denver in 2011 for another. Rather than acknowledge the point under discussion, you change up the scope of the topic.

 

Now they have to be players who "change the fortunes of the franchise" and have played on a Superbowl winner. Fine, BadOL, let's have your list of QB who have been drafted in the top 10 picks and have "changed the fortunes of the franchise"? It should be easy for you to generate, because QB turn the franchise around all the time, right? And let's agree on "turn the franchise around" - that means a pattern of success, not one playoff appearance in a spate of losing seasons?

 

The fact is, many of the young QB who have had success recently were not drafted in the 1st round (Wilson, Kaepernick, perhaps Dalton). And many of the QB who have been drafted in the top 10 of the 1st round recently have not yet found success and certainly haven't "changed the fortunes of the franchise", even if they are arguably capable NFL QB who might succeed with a strong D and other pieces around them.

 

Here is a list of 21 QB who were drafted in the 1st round in the same interval as the LB list I pulled. I would perhaps give you 3 on this list who "changed the fortunes of the franchise". There are several more who have been successful players, but hardly "carry the franchise and change its fortunes" guys and several more who are arguably good players but have yet to find success in the NFL, possibly due to lack of other talent. Moreover, I would argue that the 3 QB who have "turned the franchise around" were truly heralded as being something special when they came out - in other words, simply grabbing a talented college QB in the top 10 picks of the 1st round may be neither necessary or sufficient.

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 1 2012 1 1 Andrew Luck QB IND 2012 2013 0 2 2 27 32 32 22-10-0 682 1197 8196 46 27 125 632 9 Stanford 2 2012 1 2 Robert Griffin QB WAS 2012 2013 0 1 2 28 28 28 12-16-0 532 849 6403 36 17 206 1304 7 Baylor 3 2012 1 8 Ryan Tannehill QB MIA 2012 2013 0 0 2 20 32 32 15-17-0 637 1072 7207 36 30 89 449 3 Texas A&M 4 2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB CAR 2011 2013 0 2 3 49 48 48 25-23-0 882 1475 11299 64 42 364 2032 28 Auburn 5 2011 1 8 Jake Locker QB TEN 2011 2013 0 0 2 13 23 18 8-10-0 322 563 3974 22 15 73 502 4 Washington 6 2011 1 10 Blaine Gabbert QB JAX 2011 2013 0 0 3 8 28 27 5-22-0 414 777 4357 22 24 75 186 0 Missouri 7 2010 1 1 Sam Bradford QB STL 2010 2013 0 0 4 26 49 49 18-30-1 1032 1760 11065 59 38 97 247 2 Oklahoma 8 2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford QB DET 2009 2013 0 0 4 44 61 61 24-37-0 1485 2497 17457 109 73 118 392 9 Georgia 9 2009 1 5 Mark Sanchez QB NYJ 2009 2013 0 0 4 26 62 62 33-29-0 1028 1867 12092 68 69 125 342 12 USC 10 2008 1 3 Matt Ryan QB ATL 2008 2013 0 2 6 76 94 94 60-34-0 2093 3288 23472 153 77 219 555 5 Boston Col. 11 2007 1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB OAK 2007 2009 0 0 2 6 31 25 7-18-0 354 680 4083 18 23 40 175 1 LSU 12 2006 1 3 Vince Young QB TEN 2006 2011 0 2 4 33 60 50 31-19-0 755 1304 8964 46 51 282 1459 12 Texas 13 2006 1 10 Matt Leinart QB ARI 2006 2012 0 0 1 12 33 18 8-10-0 366 641 4065 15 21 47 89 2 USC 14 2005 1 1 Alex Smith QB SFO 2005 2013 0 1 8 48 95 90 49-40-1 1598 2685 17593 104 70 288 1192 5 Utah 15 2004 1 1 Eli Manning QB SDG 2004 2013 0 3 9 89 153 151 85-66-0 2929 5008 35345 229 171 231 431 4 Mississippi 16 2004 1 4 Philip Rivers QB NYG 2004 2013 0 5 8 107 132 128 79-49-0 2646 4108 32369 221 104 249 410 3 North Carolina St. 17 2003 1 1 Carson Palmer QB CIN 2004 2013 0 2 9 88 138 137 64-73-0 2930 4682 33739 213 152 240 375 7 USC 18 2003 1 7 Byron Leftwich QB JAX 2003 2012 0 0 3 33 60 50 24-26-0 930 1605 10532 58 42 137 415 10 Marshall 19 2002 1 1 David Carr QB HOU 2002 2012 0 0 5 44 94 79 23-56-0 1353 2267 14452 65 71 305 1328 9 Fresno St. 20 2002 1 3 Joey Harrington QB DET 2002 2007 0 0 6 30 81 76 26-50-0 1424 2538 14693 79 85 142 402 0 Oregon 21 2001 1 1 Michael Vick QB ATL 2001 2013 0 4 8 91 128 109 58-48-1 1703 3030 21489 128 85 827 5857 36 Virginia Tech

 

 

 

Wilson has shown some flashes tonight, no doubt. But it seems to be the Percy Harvin and Legion of Boom show.

 

The evidence that the Bills don't know how to draft is glaring. They have repeated the same mistakes throughout their history. Drafting nearly 50% RB's and DB's with their first selection in the draft over a 40+ year period and never a QB with that pick.......the shortsightedness of the organization has been undeniable. I fully supported the decision to draft EJ Manuel. Success or bust, you miss 100% of the chances you don't take. But I said it then, it was only a good decision if they were willing to go back to the well in 2014 if Manuel didn't knock their socks off. Getting a QB is not about throwing an occasional bone at problem and hoping it works out.

 

I am not saying you can't justify taking any position other than QB in the first round.........but without a very good QB your organization has no direction and the Bills have consistently been unable to understand that. They are always trying to patch up their other 21........but the truth is, until you have a quality QB you really have no idea how good the rest of your team is. That is why the Bills consistently let players move on in FA or via trade that go on to perform much better elsewhere. So comparing how teams with good QB's draft to how the Bills draft is pointless. The Bills have to get in the game before they can expect any results thru patch drafting.

[Sisyphean Bills]

*sigh* AJ Hawk. <snip>

 

Still, BadOl has a strategic football point in there. No doubt, there are exceptions to anything, but QB as a position tends to be filled by guys taken very early in the draft. LB is the other end of the spectrum. There was a study, oh, a few years ago about the average draft position of every NFL player on each team's 2 deep depth chart, and LB was the very lowest group. By quite a bit as I recall. In other words, the average NFL team gets production at LB without high investment.

 

Bill Polian has said on air that LB is not a position he particularly emphasized when he ran teams. He feels the drop off there just isn't that significant and if you do your homework, you can draft a very productive LB late in the draft.

 

FWIW.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Still, BadOl has a strategic football point in there. No doubt, there are exceptions to anything, but QB as a position tends to be filled by guys taken very early in the draft. LB is the other end of the spectrum. There was a study, oh, a few years ago about the average draft position of every NFL player on each team's 2 deep depth chart, and LB was the very lowest group. By quite a bit as I recall. In other words, the average NFL team gets production at LB without high investment.

 

Bill Polian has said on air that LB is not a position he particularly emphasized when he ran teams. He feels the drop off there just isn't that significant and if you do your homework, you can draft a very productive LB late in the draft.

 

FWIW.

That's funny for a guy who ran a team that consistently got victimized by the Patriots. Conversely, the Ravens always had strong LB play and were more consistently a thorn in the side of the Pats.

[Doc]

Wilson outplayed Flynn only because Flynn was hurt and didn't play in the third preseason game. I'm fairly certain no one, with the possible exception of harbaugh, would have started Wilson and then kept him in after the slow start. He didn't blow people away in preseason or the first few games. Pete Carroll made a completely unconventional decision. Harbaugh, too, started karpernick when alex smith was 12-1 or something. Few coaches if any would have done that, but they gambled on a QB because it's the most important position and their hunch proved to be the difference.

The behind-the-scenes is that GM John Schneider absolutely loved Wilson and really wanted him, and that's why they took him in the 3rd, when most teams had him going at least a round later. When they saw his poor performance against Denver in pre-season game 2 and Wilson's performance as a starter in game 3, it wasn't as unconventional as you would think.

[Mr. WEO]

The behind-the-scenes is that GM John Schneider absolutely loved Wilson and really wanted him, and that's why they took him in the 3rd, when most teams had him going at least a round later. When they saw his poor performance against Denver in pre-season game 2 and Wilson's performance as a starter in game 3, it wasn't as unconventional as you would think.

 

Really? After dumping 10 million or so on Flynn, they dropped him after 2 preseason games and after Wilson, the "too short QB" by all accounts, played a sinlge game---that's nit unconventional?

[Kelly the Dog]

The behind-the-scenes is that GM John Schneider absolutely loved Wilson and really wanted him, and that's why they took him in the 3rd, when most teams had him going at least a round later. When they saw his poor performance against Denver in pre-season game 2 and Wilson's performance as a starter in game 3, it wasn't as unconventional as you would think.

1998. Wade Phillips is the coach. The Bills trade a #1 pick for Rob Johnson and immediately sign him to a $25 million contract. The same year they sign Doug Flutie out of Canada and give him a small contract with incentives, immediately making Johnson the starter. Flutie out plays Johnson in training camp. The first game against San Diego RJ gets hurt. Flutie comes in and plays great leading a listless team in position to win the game before the kicker misses a gimme FG with no time left.

 

The Bills immediately return RJ to the starting position until he gets hurt again and Flutie takes over for good.

[Sisyphean Bills]

That's funny for a guy who ran a team that consistently got victimized by the Patriots. Conversely, the Ravens always had strong LB play and were more consistently a thorn in the side of the Pats.

 

Though I'm not sure if that explains why Belichick is 7-3 against the Ravens.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Though I'm not sure if that explains why Belichick is 7-3 against the Ravens.

1-2 in the playoffs and the win was a squeaker.

[ecgetty]

Would anyone have a concern with A Murray in the 3rd or 4th? High level of accomplishment in the SEC and a rabid fan base. Mobile, smart and a decent reach based on production.

[Doc]

Really? After dumping 10 million or so on Flynn, they dropped him after 2 preseason games and after Wilson, the "too short QB" by all accounts, played a sinlge game---that's nit unconventional?

Not given the entirety of Wilson's college career, how much they really liked him, Flynn essentially being a nobody who they gave a ridiculous contract to based on one game, and Wilson out-performing him all throughout minicamp, training camp, and pre-season.