dave mcbride Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 (edited) 2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it. Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years: 2013: 75.0 2012: 82.2 2011: 77.0 2010: 75.2 2009: 71.7 2008: 81.3 2007: 73.8 2006: 84.6 (!) 2005: 75.4 2004: 76.7 2003: 69.4 2002: 86.0 2001: 74.7 2000: 84.3 1999: 78.1 1998: 91.0 (this was their best team over all of this time span, incidentally) 1997: 60.8 1996: 72.6 1995: 79.9 1994: 81.2 A couple of observations: 1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed). 2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating. 3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks. 4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that. 5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance. EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/06/23/most.important.stat.passer.rating.differential/ Edited January 3, 2014 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Manuel's personal rating is a few points better (77.7) but point taken, and I agree with #3. His draft position, a second year in the system, and the short timelines of NFL coaching staffs demand progress. I really hope the Bills hire a real QB coach to help. The Bills have also been unable to keep a QB healthy for years, outside of Fitzy (and even he had the cracked ribs a few seasons ago). This year, you've got to say that this was Manuel's fault, not the lines, which in a way bodes well. They still need guards and more weapons, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We used to have a QB that threw for 3800 yds and 24 TDs. But fans said he sucked and we had to replace with with a "franchise" rookie. But now the rookie sucks worse after 10 games. We expect a rookie to walk in and dominate the NFL and when they don't we are sad and cry. PTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronc24 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We used to have a QB that threw for 3800 yds and 24 TDs. But fans said he sucked and we had to replace with with a "franchise" rookie. But now the rookie sucks worse after 10 games. We expect a rookie to walk in and dominate the NFL and when they don't we are sad and cry. PTR Sigh. Still supporting Pickspatrick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Oh' good Lord another QB thread, and I'm the supposed to be QB crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We used to have a QB that threw for 3800 yds and 24 TDs. But fans said he sucked and we had to replace with with a "franchise" rookie. But now the rookie sucks worse after 10 games. We expect a rookie to walk in and dominate the NFL and when they don't we are sad and cry. PTR Yes, it's the fans' fault (you broken record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it. Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years: 2013: 75.0 2012: 82.2 2011: 77.0 2010: 75.2 2009: 71.7 2008: 81.3 2007: 73.8 2006: 84.6 (!) 2005: 75.4 2004: 76.7 2003: 69.4 2002: 86.0 2001: 74.7 2000: 84.3 1999: 78.1 1998: 91.0 (this was their best team over all of this time span, incidentally) 1997: 60.8 1996: 72.6 1995: 79.9 1994: 81.2 A couple of observations: 1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed). 2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating. 3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks. 4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that. 5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance. EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustr...g.differential/ Great post. And the point about the QBR differential..........I think a lot of people think that if EJ can become a serviceable NFL starter the Bills problems are solved. Wrong. The Bills need the best quality QB they can get. So the argument that the Bills should pass on any QB in the draft who isn't a Peyton Manning/Andrew Luck type prospect misses the mark entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Good topic. Thanks for posting. For the discussion, here are the same stats for the 2012 regular season. The playoff teams are bolded: http://instantreplay1.wordpress.com/2013/01/01/2012-final-passer-rating-differential/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackFergy Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it. Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years: 2013: 75.0 2012: 82.2 2011: 77.0 2010: 75.2 2009: 71.7 2008: 81.3 2007: 73.8 2006: 84.6 (!) 2005: 75.4 2004: 76.7 2003: 69.4 2002: 86.0 2001: 74.7 2000: 84.3 1999: 78.1 1998: 91.0 (this was their best team over all of this time span, incidentally) 1997: 60.8 1996: 72.6 1995: 79.9 1994: 81.2 A couple of observations: 1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed). 2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating. 3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks. 4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that. 5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance. EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/06/23/most.important.stat.passer.rating.differential/ Dave - Nice post/thread. There are a lot of QB threads that rehash a lot of conclusory statements ("he doesn't scan the field well" or "this guy deserves a shot" etc.) But I actually took something from this post and it makes sense. Interesting. Hope our analytics department posts this on their office wall. Thanks for the info. Good topic. Thanks for posting. For the discussion, here are the same stats for the 2012 regular season. The playoff teams are bolded: http://instantreplay1.wordpress.com/2013/01/01/2012-final-passer-rating-differential/ Nice link SJBF...that was helpful as well. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBill Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it. Here's the sorry recent history of the Bills' collective passer rating over the past 20 years: 2013: 75.0 2012: 82.2 2011: 77.0 2010: 75.2 2009: 71.7 2008: 81.3 2007: 73.8 2006: 84.6 (!) 2005: 75.4 2004: 76.7 2003: 69.4 2002: 86.0 2001: 74.7 2000: 84.3 1999: 78.1 1998: 91.0 (this was their best team over all of this time span, incidentally) 1997: 60.8 1996: 72.6 1995: 79.9 1994: 81.2 A couple of observations: 1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed). 2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating. 3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks. 4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that. 5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance. EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/kerry_byrne/06/23/most.important.stat.passer.rating.differential/ Ouch.. The numbers and the results do not lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artmalibu Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I see the glass half full....................We have 2 very good back-up QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Good topic. Thanks for posting. For the discussion, here are the same stats for the 2012 regular season. The playoff teams are bolded: http://instantreplay1.wordpress.com/2013/01/01/2012-final-passer-rating-differential/ Thanks, SJBF. Good link. It's worth noting that although the Bears didn't make the playoffs in 2012, they did go 10-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuntheDamnBall Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Thanks, SJBF. Good link. It's worth noting that although the Bears didn't make the playoffs in 2012, they did go 10-6. Also that Andrew Luck's rookie season rating was lower than EJ's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T master Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Most all of the blame can be placed firmly on the Bills FO, good teams such as the Pats, Eagles,Pittsburgh draft QB's when there are really good ones to choose from the Bills on the other hand pick up cast offs that still have some tread left but don't & haven't planned for the future when it comes to the position. Like this year coming up. They draft a guy last year too high bring in a total of 9 different QB's for the season & that in & of it self says a lot about where the teams head is at. I hope that Whaley has the fore sight first to draft another QB if a really good one is available at our pick weather or not it's round 1, 2, or 3 . Second bring in a super compitent QB coach so Hackett can focus implementing the offense . They have let so many good players slip through their hands it's just foolish ! More of the blame should be put on them for not bringing in a QB almost every draft instead of all the cast offs !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BackInDaDay Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 no offense meant to the OP - this is a solid analysis of the importance of having a good QB - but here are some numbers.. wins losses ties 370 426 8 record from 1960-2013 - in 54 seasons we won 46% of our games - 70 - 26 - 0 record from 1988-1993 - in 6 seasons we won 73% of our games 300 400 8 record from 1960-1987 and 1994-2013 - in 48 seasons we won 42% of our games other than a 6 year span where we fielded one of the most talented teams ever assembled, we are a historically bad franchise. why? because we lunge toward each season in awkward bursts, without long term plans. our front office has shown the discipline of a small child with an attention deficit disorder, quitting this for that in fits of lapsed judgments.. all the while profiting from the sale of an inferior product to consumers compelled to buy in, year after year. maybe i'm the worst sucker out of all of us, but for the first time in a long time, i believe a young GM with some football chops has been given an opportunity to grow the culture of this haphazard club into something better - something cohesive - something that might last awhile. but here we are, less than one week removed from our latest failure, an ineffectual mob of grown men who - for some insane reasons we can't even fathom - need this team more than they need us.. here we are.. storming this wobbly castle.. ready to burn it and all it's cursed inhabitants down to the cold, cold ground.. again. i'm willing to give this GM and this coaching staff one more year to win. i'm willing to give this QB one more year to win. i'm willing to watch other bad clubs hitch their creaking wagons to the next generation of projected saviors without envy, because i think we're building something solid here, and now.. and i'd like to see what the football men in the room can do before the sales department tears apart their plans in response to the mob. be careful what you ask for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PromoTheRobot Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 (edited) Sigh. Still supporting Pickspatrick? Yes, it's the fans' fault (you broken record). No, Fitz is gone. Past history. But I just can't help but chuckle at the people who thought Fitz was the worst QB ever having a cow over Manuel. I posted if you thought Fitz was bad then get ready for something even worse. And there it is. PTR Edited January 3, 2014 by PromoTheRobot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PolishDave Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 @BackInDaDay - Convincing argument dude...... I am willing to give more slack to office personnel and coaches than I am to players though. I like decisive coaching like Marrone has shown when it comes to players (at least a few times) and there is little to argue with that happened in the last draft. So maybe, just maybe this staff will stick long enough and produce well enough to be worthy of sticking. Personally I thought Chan Gailey had settled in quite nicely and was going to build a winning team. I fear it might have taken him too long though based on the way the defense regressed during his last year. I get your point and I think you make a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 2013 was bad, but it's of a piece with Buffalo Bills football as we've come to know and love it. 1) The new Mendoza line in qb play is 80.0. It used to be 73-75 until about 2004-05 or so (when the rules changed). 2) There is no way to sugarcoat it or explain it away: with a couple of exceptions, the Bills Qb performance over the last two decades has been epically bad. The team has occasionally had good defenses, good running games, and good special teams play. But it's all meaningless if you're running out QBs completely incapable of generating a moderately decent 85.0 rating. 3) Manuel is a rookie, so I'm withholding judgment. That said, if he doesn't achieve an 85 rating or better next season, I suspect I'll consign him to the ever growing ash heap of bad Bills quarterbacks. 4) To give you a sense of how bad 75.0 is, opposing QBs collectively managed to achieve a 74.9 rating against the Bills D. The thing is, the Bills were third in the NFL, with only Cincy (74.2) and Seattle (63.4) doing better. The Bills pass D was phenomenal this year, which is even more impressive given that in the previous couple of seasons they were allowing collective passer ratings in the low 90s (which is dismal). Pettine deserves a ton of credit for that. 5) A year or two ago, there was a great analysis (maybe on si.com or espn.com; I can't recall) that conclusively demonstrated that qb rating differential (that is, the difference between your qbs' collective rating and the opposing qbs' collective rating) was the single greatest predictor of success and failure in the NFL. It covered decades of results. In other words, the clowns the Bills have rolled out at qb year after year after year just don't give the team a chance. EDIT: I found the article. Enjoy: http://sportsillustr...g.differential/ Great post, thanks for making it and for the link! I share your concern about EJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowery4 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I just want them to draft Russel Wilson in the 3rd. guard and Lb in the first 2, and a TE's for all the rest of the picks(and maybe a bruiser rb to compete with our fb) And sign Byrd, fire the ST coach bring in a real Qb coach and have an open compitition in camp. As far as coaching I really want them to spread horizonally a bit so Spiller can be more effective.And for Christmas next year i want a playoff slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 @BackInDaDay - Convincing argument dude...... Personally I thought Chan Gailey had settled in quite nicely and was going to build a winning team. I fear it might have taken him too long though based on the way the defense regressed during his last year. Chan Gailey's true tragic flaws were 1) his choice of DCs, Edwards then Wannstache. I think with a Pettine-quality D we could potentially have seen playoffs last year, JMO though 2) trying to combine the duties of OC and HC. When you look at A Week In the Life of a top HC like Harbaugh, it's clear one man can not do both today, especially an older man. I just want them to draft Russel Wilson in the 3rd. guard and Lb in the first 2, and a TE's for all the rest of the picks(and maybe a bruiser rb to compete with our fb) And sign Byrd, fire the ST coach bring in a real Qb coach and have an open compitition in camp. As far as coaching I really want them to spread horizonally a bit so Spiller can be more effective.And for Christmas next year i want a playoff slot. Sounds great, Bow, but while we're drafting Wilson can we go ahead and draft a HC, Harbaugh maybe? We could probably draft a real QB coach and a ST coach too, who would you like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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