Buffalo could very well field both the DROY and OROY this year

[Luxy312]

Actually your stat is inherently wrong. You are using stats from eras where QBs didn't play mostly at all their rookie years. In today's era that is substantially different as rookie QBs are getting opportunities to play early and having success doing so. You stat is like averaging the cost of buying a house since 1950 and saying that's the average house price today which would be ridiculously inaccurate. Anyone who thinks a rookie QB having success in today's NFL doesn't have an advantage in the voting doesn't watch the NFL. It's the most high profile, most watched, most difficult, and most important single position in all of team sports.

 

An "era" isn't a couple years guy. You have no understanding at all (obviously) of statistics and the requirement to have a statistically significant sample. Even if you defined this "era" as the last 15 years, you're still talking 6 QB's and 9 non-QB's. You're also talking about QB's that all started right away and had measurable success (above average production). Manuel will have to be the week 1 starter and have measurable success. Even then, that doesn't make him the front runner by any stretch. Don't forget that Carson Palmer didn't win it over Anquan Boldin in 2003. In 2005, neither Alex Smith or Jason Campbell (with modest production) won it over Cadillac Williams. Jamarcus Russell (who started but was trash) didn't win over Adrian Peterson in 2007. As recently as 2009, neither Mark Sanchez nor Matt Stafford got the not over Percy Harvin. If you want to use stats, then actually use them. Recent QB winners of the ROY awards had more than "modest success" as you're suggesting.

[Alphadawg7]

An "era" isn't a couple years guy. You have no understanding at all (obviously) of statistics and the requirement to have a statistically significant sample. Even if you defined this "era" as the last 15 years, you're still talking 6 QB's and 9 non-QB's. You're also talking about QB's that all started right away and had measurable success (above average production). Manuel will have to be the week 1 starter and have measurable success. Even then, that doesn't make him the front runner by any stretch. Don't forget that Carson Palmer didn't win it over Anquan Boldin in 2003. In 2005, neither Alex Smith or Jason Campbell (with modest production) won it over Cadillac Williams. Jamarcus Russell (who started but was trash) didn't win over Adrian Peterson in 2007. As recently as 2009, neither Mark Sanchez nor Matt Stafford got the not over Percy Harvin. If you want to use stats, then actually use them. Recent QB winners of the ROY awards had more than "modest success" as you're suggesting.

 

Wow, this post was worse than the last one. A) I did not say an era was a couple years. B) You want to talk like a stats guru, yet you have no idea what you just said.

 

1. 6 QB's and 9 non QB's...how does that break down...6 QB's, 6 RB's, and 3 WR's. So QB is tied for MOST ROY wins in last 15 years. However, the ERA I am referring too is the last 10 years, which is the period that rookie QB's started being given the job more often in their first year going back to Carson Palmer. In the last 10 years, the ROY has gone to a QB 6 times...thats 60% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 years. You want to include as old as statistics as you can, because without them your point has no value. However, that time period was VERY different than the NFL of the last 10 years and lacks any real value in analytical evaluation in todays climate of the NFL. This is now a passing and QB driven league, was not the case even 15 yeas ago.

 

2. Speaking of Palmer, your point about Boldin winning it over him is hilarious...Boldin set all kinds of rookie WR records and had over 100 catches as a rookie WR. Of course he was going to win it, he earned it. NEVER has me or anyone else I have seen say a QB will win it just because he starts, so what are you even talking about?

 

3. I actually said I think Woods has a better shot to win it than EJ, yet you focus on EJ. My only point was that a rookie QB who is successful has an advantage given the high profile, difficulty, the impact it has on the success of a team, and importance of the position. The last 10 years seems to agree with me

 

4. You bringing up bad rookie QB's is hilarious. Please show me anywhere I said that just because EJ starts he is a favorite. I said, again you have to actually read the posts to know this though, that if he does and is successful that gives him an advantage...nothing more, nothing less.

 

5. Lastly, your comment about me having no understanding of statistics is comical. One of the most important factors in statistical analytics is trends. Analyzing stats of how things were, versus how they are, is an epic failure in statistical valuation in relation to determining expectation and short term predictions/conclusions. So, maybe you should read up on statistical analytics before accusing others of not having a clue about them as everything thing you said was factually incorrect...and severely incorrect to be honest. You are barking up the wrong tree with those comments.

Edited May 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[Luxy312]

1. 6 QB's and 9 non QB's...how does that break down...6 QB's, 6 RB's, and 3 WR's. So QB is tied for MOST ROY wins in last 15 years. However, the ERA I am referring too is the last 10 years, which is the period that rookie QB's started being given the job more often in their first year going back to Carson Palmer. In the last 10 years, the ROY has gone to a QB 6 times...thats 60% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 years. You want to include as old as statistics as you can, because without them your point has no value. However, that time period was VERY different than the NFL of the last 10 years. Nope. It's 2 WR's, 6 QB's, and 7 RB's. Again, you can cherry pick your era, but I'm not having it. If you want most likely, it's RB.

 

2. Speaking of Palmer, your point about Boldin winning it over him is hilarious...Boldin set all kind of rookie WR records and had over 100 catches as a rookie WR. Of course he was going to win it. Exactly correct. There's also NOTHING suggesting that won't happen this year.

 

3. I actually said I think Woods has a better shot to win it than EJ, yet you focus on EJ. My only point was that a rookie QB who is successful has an advantage given the high profile, difficulty, and importance of the position. The last 10 years seems to agree with me You pick Woods, but ignore other rookies like Tavon Austin that were rated much higher by far. Nice homer rimmed glasses.

 

4. You bringing up bad rookie QB's is hilarious. Please show me anywhere I said that just because EJ starts he is a favorite. I said, again you have to actually read the posts to know this though, that if he does and is successful that gives him an advantage...nothing more, nothing less. You said that if he put up modest success that he would be the favorite. My point is that modest success will not. The QB's that won it that I pointed out had well above average rookie seasons. The ones that I pointed out that didn't had modest success or below average success.

 

5. Lastly, your comment about me having no understanding of statistics is comical. One of the most important factors in statistical analytics is trends. Analyzing stats of how things were, versus how they are, is an epic failure is statistical valuation. So, maybe you should read up on statistical analytics before accusing others of not having a clue about them as everything thing you said was factually incorrect...and severely incorrect to be honest. You are barking up the wrong tree with those comments Your comments on statistics is laughable at best. Trends are NOT one of the most important factors unless trends can be used to predict the future. I have advanced certifications in statistics. You should read up on probability and probility distributions, central tendency, making inferences about more than two population values, and the general linear model. If you learn anything from that, you will get that just because 6 of the last 10 years a QB has won the OROY award that it somehow gives E.J. an advantage if he has a "modest" year. Probability distribution would already tell you you're wrong, not less all the other tests.

 

Your "evaluation" if we can even call it that is filled with conjecture and speculation, and nothing more. Hopeful rose colored glasses.

[Alphadawg7]

1. 6 QB's and 9 non QB's...how does that break down...6 QB's, 6 RB's, and 3 WR's. So QB is tied for MOST ROY wins in last 15 years. However, the ERA I am referring too is the last 10 years, which is the period that rookie QB's started being given the job more often in their first year going back to Carson Palmer. In the last 10 years, the ROY has gone to a QB 6 times...thats 60% of the time, including 5 of the last 7 years. You want to include as old as statistics as you can, because without them your point has no value. However, that time period was VERY different than the NFL of the last 10 years. Nope. It's 2 WR's, 6 QB's, and 7 RB's. Again, you can cherry pick your era, but I'm not having it. If you want most likely, it's RB.

 

2. Speaking of Palmer, your point about Boldin winning it over him is hilarious...Boldin set all kind of rookie WR records and had over 100 catches as a rookie WR. Of course he was going to win it. Exactly correct. There's also NOTHING suggesting that won't happen this year.

 

3. I actually said I think Woods has a better shot to win it than EJ, yet you focus on EJ. My only point was that a rookie QB who is successful has an advantage given the high profile, difficulty, and importance of the position. The last 10 years seems to agree with me You pick Woods, but ignore other rookies like Tavon Austin that were rated much higher by far. Nice homer rimmed glasses.

 

4. You bringing up bad rookie QB's is hilarious. Please show me anywhere I said that just because EJ starts he is a favorite. I said, again you have to actually read the posts to know this though, that if he does and is successful that gives him an advantage...nothing more, nothing less. You said that if he put up modest success that he would be the favorite. My point is that modest success will not. The QB's that won it that I pointed out had well above average rookie seasons. The ones that I pointed out that didn't had modest success or below average success.

 

5. Lastly, your comment about me having no understanding of statistics is comical. One of the most important factors in statistical analytics is trends. Analyzing stats of how things were, versus how they are, is an epic failure is statistical valuation. So, maybe you should read up on statistical analytics before accusing others of not having a clue about them as everything thing you said was factually incorrect...and severely incorrect to be honest. You are barking up the wrong tree with those comments Your comments on statistics is laughable at best. Trends are NOT one of the most important factors unless trends can be used to predict the future. I have advanced certifications in statistics. You should read up on probability and probility distributions, central tendency, making inferences about more than two population values, and the general linear model. If you learn anything from that, you will get that just because 6 of the last 10 years a QB has won the OROY award that it somehow gives E.J. an advantage if he has a "modest" year. Probability distribution would already tell you you're wrong, not less all the other tests.

 

Your "evaluation" if we can even call it that is filled with conjecture and speculation, and nothing more. Hopeful rose colored glasses.

 

lol at the responses.

 

1. Never said he would be the favorite...you either don't read the posts or English is not your first language, because I am pretty sure I speak fluent English and in English "advantage" and "favorite" are not the same word nor meaning. And my comments on EJ are about THIS YEARS rookie class, not every year in history. In this years rookie class, where few offensive rookies project at this stage to be major contributors, including other QB's, EJ having success would give him an advantage given the high profile of the position and the impact that position has...thats just NFL 101.

 

2. You comments on statistics are grossly flawed and based on the previous comments you have made on the statistics, I have very little doubt that you are grossly over stating your understanding of statistical analytics in regards to near term projections.

 

3. Trends are actually vastly important in statistical analytics in determining current expectation...again, if you had even 1/10 the statistical knowledge you claim, you would know this (although if you admitted to knowing this you would have no point). And 10 years is a large enough sample size.

 

4. Tavon was drafted higher...great, who cares. He plays in the toughest DEFENSIVE division in all of football...thats 6 games against 3 of the best D's in the league, including the top 2. He plays on a team with a QB who has not developed into much more than he was as a rookie with a suspect OL, no other WR weapons, and no established run game. To say he has a big advantage over Woods is a bit silly.

 

5. I never said Woods or EJ were the favorites to win the thing anyway, so what are you even talking about. I simply said, given the circumstances of the draft lacking prospects expected to make major rookie impacts on the offensive side of the ball, that we have 2 rookies who could be in the running.

 

6. And you are wrong...6 QB's, 6 RB's and 3 WR's won it the last 15 years (even though 5 of those years the NFL was still a run dominant league). WR's - Harvin, Boldin, Moss...for someone claiming to be so good at math, you seem to struggle counting to 3. 6 RB's were Peterson, Cadillac, Portis, Thomas, Anderson, James. Again, seems to add up to 6.

 

7. So Again, QB is just as likely to win it as RB, and that is if you allow the extra 5 year sample size that was a completely different era.

 

8. Oh and then theres that pesky logic again of the fact that this was the worst draft in a long time for RB's, which one could argue gives more chance to either a QB or WR having a little better odds of winning it over a RB this year. Does not in any way mean they won't, but as the league sits right now today, RB was not considered a strength nor is one considered to make an Adrain Peterson type rookie impact. One very well could, Boldin was a 2nd round WR and set rookie records, but we can only talk about expectation right now as no one has even played a game.

Edited May 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[Luxy312]

I rate this thread a turd and I'm done fighting a battle of wits with someone that's clearly unarmed.

[Alphadawg7]

I rate this thread a turd and I'm done fighting a battle of wits with someone that's clearly unarmed.

 

About the expected response I was expecting based on my statistical evaluation of your capable responses.

 

And I just love how a positive thread about the potential of our rookies, the opportunity they will have to strive on this team and under this regime brings out so many people wanting to prove that wrong rather than just sit back and enjoy the possibilities. Especially since at no point was it ever predicted they would win, it was just about what could be possible.

 

Enjoy the negativity, hope that serves you well...let me know how it turns out

Edited May 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[tennesseeboy]

So a thread discussing the possibility of our young players and potential success is somehow annoying to you. Got it. Thanks for playing

Acgtually it amuses me...it doesn't annoy me. Thanks for your errant analysis.

[Alphadawg7]

Acgtually it amuses me...it doesn't annoy me. Thanks for your errant analysis.

 

Well considering you said its "errant" when no one has played a down yet, shows the assumed negative perception you would prefer to stick with. The only one living in absolutes is you, as you claim its incorrect when there is nothing to be correct or incorrect about given no one has even played one down in the NFL. I presented a possibility, you presented an absolute of impossibility.

 

That's the difference.

 

Funniest part, is the only people making absolute predictions are the ones mocking the idea and claiming no chance it could even happen.

 

Been fascinating presenting positive potential to see negative responses falsely addressing that as if its a prediction or proclamation. Fascinating to see that after one of the most positive and exciting Bills off seasons in a long time (new head of operations, new GM, new FO, new HC, new DC, new OC, new positional coaches, exciting draft class, quality free agent signings, etc) that something discussing the potential of our young players would be dominated by those wanting to hate on that potential and prove it to be false.

 

To each their own...still enjoying the thread

Edited May 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[tennesseeboy]

Nonsense...let's look at what I actually said "yeah yaah yeah...offensive AND defensive rookie of the year. I don't see any reason for either of the rookie of the year awards to go to us, at least not until the guys make the team, break into the starting lineup and actually play in a few games. I think there are 30 some other teams who could make the same projection right about now." I certainly don't say it is impossible. We might have both. We might have four or five hall of famers. What I am saying is that at this particular moment all of the teams in the NFL have about the same right as we do to make the claim. Has it been an "exciting" off season? Well...kind of. Is the team better? Well...maybe...I hope so Is there empirical evidence of any particular kind to give hope it will be better this year? Not much. But hey, I've been a Bills fan since the day they came to town...we can always hope.

[Alphadawg7]

Nonsense...let's look at what I actually said "yeah yaah yeah...offensive AND defensive rookie of the year. I don't see any reason for either of the rookie of the year awards to go to us, at least not until the guys make the team, break into the starting lineup and actually play in a few games. I think there are 30 some other teams who could make the same projection right about now." I certainly don't say it is impossible. We might have both. We might have four or five hall of famers. What I am saying is that at this particular moment all of the teams in the NFL have about the same right as we do to make the claim. Has it been an "exciting" off season? Well...kind of. Is the team better? Well...maybe...I hope so Is there empirical evidence of any particular kind to give hope it will be better this year? Not much. But hey, I've been a Bills fan since the day they came to town...we can always hope.

 

What claim did I make? Really, what are you reading lol? I simply presented a possibility, NEVER once said that other players on other teams did not have their own possibilities, and did not ever say we are even expected or favorites to have players win the awards.

 

Essentially you are arguing that everyone has equal opportunity...great, thanks for stating the obvious, and something I never once said anything contradictory too. Why are you making this about everyone in the NFL when I simply started a thread of about THIS TEAMS players, on THIS TEAMS message board, and the potential of THIS TEAMS rookies to make an impact. When did I ever say no other team has a chance?

 

LMAO...so what is your point? Is it that we are not locks to win either award? Great, everyone on Earth agrees with you. Is it that other teams have players capable of winning either award? Again, great, everyone on Earth agrees with you

 

My point was that we have guys who will have an opportunity to contribute on THIS TEAM early in significant skill positions on both sides of the ball. Those same rookies possess a lot of overall potential as Woods was considered the most NFL ready WR by most, and Kiko was considered a first round talent at LB by most if it were not for his early off field issues.

 

FWIW - Both Kiko and Woods have been standouts and drawing major praise from the Vets and Staff so far. Kiko is already running with the first unit and calling the plays on D and leading the defense. Woods has been showing precise routes expected of quality veterans already and making big plays. So, both seem to be playing their way as expected to be week 1 starters and be a big part of the game plan on each side of the ball. Its early, but so far they are impressing. Yet I am some kind of fool because I am high on them as prospects, and see the possibility of both of them having success this year, which if they did would put them in the running for DROY or OROY respectively? Um ok...lol

[tennesseeboy]

What claim did I make? Really, what are you reading lol? I simply presented a possibility, NEVER once said that other players on other teams did not have their own possibilities, and did not ever say we are even expected or favorites to have players win the awards.

 

Essentially you are arguing that everyone has equal opportunity...great, thanks for stating the obvious, and something I never once said anything contradictory too. Why are you making this about everyone in the NFL when I simply started a thread of about THIS TEAMS players, on THIS TEAMS message board, and the potential of THIS TEAMS rookies to make an impact. When did I ever say no other team has a chance?

 

LMAO...so what is your point? Is it that we are not locks to win either award? Great, everyone on Earth agrees with you. Is it that other teams have players capable of winning either award? Again, great, everyone on Earth agrees with you

 

My point was that we have guys who will have an opportunity to contribute on THIS TEAM early in significant skill positions on both sides of the ball. Those same rookies possess a lot of overall potential as Woods was considered the most NFL ready WR by most, and Kiko was considered a first round talent at LB by most if it were not for his early off field issues.

 

FWIW - Both Kiko and Woods have been standouts and drawing major praise from the Vets and Staff so far. Kiko is already running with the first unit and calling the plays on D and leading the defense. Woods has been showing precise routes expected of quality veterans already and making big plays. So, both seem to be playing their way as expected to be week 1 starters and be a big part of the game plan on each side of the ball. Its early, but so far they are impressing. Yet I am some kind of fool because I am high on them as prospects, and see the possibility of both of them having success this year, which if they did would put them in the running for DROY or OROY respectively? Um ok...lol

Generally we pick rookies of the year based on how they play football in actual games...not on their play in OTA's. But go ahead and dream. LOL

[The Senator]

I'd have to predict that the Bills will not only have OROY & DROY, but also Superbowl MVP...

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

[Alphadawg7]

Generally we pick rookies of the year based on how they play football in actual games...not on their play in OTA's. But go ahead and dream. LOL

 

LMAO who picked the ROY's? Since when is discussing how a couple guys have potential to contend for it now suddenly picking them as winners of it?

 

If you want to pretend the topic says something else than it actually does to get your negativity rocks off and Internet bashing kicks in, go for it. But it's pretty funny that you keep going on and on about something that's never once been said and been pointed out to you several times now lol

 

But hey, if people read posts and actually responded to what the posts said then this wouldn't be TSW

 

So out of morbid curiosity, what is it you deem appropriate to discuss in the off season? You cant discuss player potential according to you, because no downs have been played in actual games. You cant discuss potential success or failure of the team...again, your stance is no games have been played. You cant discuss how good or bad the staff might do...how other teams in our division might do...our potential record...expectations of the new FO...expectations of the new GM...who will be the opening day starters...etc etc...again, all because you say no games have been played.

 

So guess we wont see you posting anytime soon, not at least until after the first game of week 1 right

Edited May 22, 2013 by Alphadawg7

[uncle flap]

So out of morbid curiosity, what is it you deem appropriate to discuss in the off season?

 

How many games the Bills will lose.

 

The Bills draft position.

 

The Russ Brandon driven conspiracy to blah blah blah

 

nm I give up.

[wnyBacker]

Kinda a out of left field prediction...but even if we had standout rookies on offense and defense they would still not get any rookie of the year award cause those are voted on by sports writers who don't follow or simply don't know or care about the bills. It's a shame but a cold reality

[Alphadawg7]

Kinda a out of left field prediction...but even if we had standout rookies on offense and defense they would still not get any rookie of the year award cause those are voted on by sports writers who don't follow or simply don't know or care about the bills. It's a shame but a cold reality

 

Sadly there is merit to what you just said. Hell out here in CA the only way I can get any news on the Bills is on here, outside of something like Mario Williams signing. Although all that is solved with winning. When the Bills were winning early (once with Trent and then with Fitz) they got a lot more attention in the media. But having a couple of rookies doing well doesn't automatically equate to more wins, so we will see.

[jimmyjack88]

It will take this staff 4 or 5 weeks to get everything in sync.After that they will be on the same page. Look for an unbillievable last eleven games.OROY or DROY are very possble.Mort flat out said this team is talented on nfl32.

[Jim in Anchorage]

How many games the Bills will lose.

 

The Bills draft position.

 

The Russ Brandon driven conspiracy to blah blah blah

 

nm I give up.

Grammar threads are a old standby.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Grammar threads are a( ) old standby.

 

:nana:

[billsfan89]

How about we at least see this rookie class play before we become overly optimistic about what they might be able to accomplish.

[CSBill]

Wow, it took me three days of boredom to finally read this post . . . I thought it was some kind of Star Trek, or Jedi, geek type of thing: DROY & OROY.

[tennesseeboy]

LMAO who picked the ROY's? Since when is discussing how a couple guys have potential to contend for it now suddenly picking them as winners of it?

 

If you want to pretend the topic says something else than it actually does to get your negativity rocks off and Internet bashing kicks in, go for it. But it's pretty funny that you keep going on and on about something that's never once been said and been pointed out to you several times now lol

 

But hey, if people read posts and actually responded to what the posts said then this wouldn't be TSW

 

So out of morbid curiosity, what is it you deem appropriate to discuss in the off season? You cant discuss player potential according to you, because no downs have been played in actual games. You cant discuss potential success or failure of the team...again, your stance is no games have been played. You cant discuss how good or bad the staff might do...how other teams in our division might do...our potential record...expectations of the new FO...expectations of the new GM...who will be the opening day starters...etc etc...again, all because you say no games have been played.

 

So guess we wont see you posting anytime soon, not at least until after the first game of week 1 right

Alpha, alpha, alpha. Look at the title of your thread. " Buffalo could very well field both the DROY and OROY this year." I must have mistakenly taken it to read: " Buffalo could very well field both the DROY and the OROY this year." How could I have made that mistake?

 

Buffalo could very well field both the DROY and OROY this year"

 

Actually if you want to say some guys look great in OTA and might be a challenger for a starting position...I could see that. Or so and so looks terrible and I wonder if he has anything left in the tank. Fine. I just think its a little early tobe putting rookies into the pro bowl or making them rookie of the year. Posting at this time? Lots of things to talk about with a new coach and new gm and what we are actually seeing. Keep posting and keep optimistic, but I'd try to keep a little hold on reality alpha my boy...

[JESSEFEFFER]

Trying to play Solomon here but if you were to look at the history of the award and limit the field of potential candidates to those most likely to win by position and draft slot, the Bills are among a small group of teams that have any realistic chance of winning BOTH awards. As it is, I put it at ~ 1/100 chance of winning both. Other teams with a chance to do it are the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, Packers and Jets.

 

Bills (Manuel, Woods / Alonso)

Rams (Austin / Ogletree)

Vikes (Patterson / Floyd, Rhodes)

Steelers (Bell / Jones)

Packers (Lacy / Jones)

Jets (Smith / Milliner, Richardson)

 

So I agree with the OP that the Bills could do this given the positions they drafted and their opportunities to make an impact but 1/100 is not consistent with "could very well" as some have based their derision on.

[CJSpillerFan]

EJ has a ways to go, he will contend for sure

[ganesh]

absolutely agree that CJ needs as many touches as he can handle, and with the addition of some of the weapons around him, he may be even more dangerous this year. but, as good as he is, and as good as he could be, i think freddy is still very important to this team. his value to the locker room should not be taken lightly, his role as a mentor to the youngsters, and just the drive and work ethic he has shown throughout his carreer. he may be approaching the end of his carreer, but i believe he still has tremendous value as a player on this team.

 

The biggest problem with Freddie last year was his fumble issues. If he can correct them this off season, I have no problems.

 

Trying to play Solomon here but if you were to look at the history of the award and limit the field of potential candidates to those most likely to win by position and draft slot, the Bills are among a small group of teams that have any realistic chance of winning BOTH awards. As it is, I put it at ~ 1/100 chance of winning both. Other teams with a chance to do it are the Rams, Steelers, Vikings, Packers and Jets.

 

Bills (Manuel, Woods / Alonso)

Rams (Austin / Ogletree)

Vikes (Patterson / Floyd, Rhodes)

Steelers (Bell / Jones)

Packers (Lacy / Jones)

Jets (Smith / Milliner, Richardson)

 

So I agree with the OP that the Bills could do this given the positions they drafted and their opportunities to make an impact but 1/100 is not consistent with "could very well" as some have based their derision on.

 

About 200+ players were drafted and 100+ players were signed as UDFAs in this years draft. Technically, about 300+ players have a chance to be DROY and OROY. The probability is pretty low.

[machine gun kelly]

What the heck is DROY or OROY?

 

I'm too lazy to read through this thread.

[JESSEFEFFER]

The biggest problem with Freddie last year was his fumble issues. If he can correct them this off season, I have no problems.

 

 

 

About 200+ players were drafted and 100+ players were signed as UDFAs in this years draft. Technically, about 300+ players have a chance to be DROY and OROY. The probability is pretty low.

 

Follow the logic here.

 

1) Not all positions are equally favored. Some have zero chance based on the history.

 

2) To win the award, a candidate has to play. Not only play but be a starter for the entire season or nearly so.

 

 

This shrinks the pool of probable winners way down.

Edited May 24, 2013 by JESSEFEFFER

[Sisyphean Bills]

Follow the logic here.

 

1) Not all positions are equally favored. Some have zero chance based on the history.

 

2) To win the award, a candidate has to play. Not only play but be a starter for the entire season or nearly so.

 

 

This shrinks the pool of probable winners way down.

 

[*] It also helps to put up huge numbers and to win games.

[AKA Bigdog]

if your talking DROY and OROY on the bills roster, id say there is a small chance. If you mean out of the entire NFL i'd suggest crack and a heavy dose of Lithium son.

[JESSEFEFFER]

Likely OROY Candidates: QB (Manuel, Smith) RB (Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy) WR (Austin, Hopkins, Patterson, Hunter, Woods, Dobson, Williams, Allen) .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................

[JESSEFEFFER]

Likely DROY candidates: DE (Ansah, Werner, D Jones, Hunt) LB (Jordan, Mingo, J Jones, Ogletree, Minter, Teo, Alonso, Bostic, Brown, Collins) DB (Milliner, Hayden, Trufant, Rhodes, Vaccaro, Reid, Slay, Banks) DT (Richardson, Lotulelei, Floyd, Williams)

 

The DROY award favors sacks, tackles, and interceptions. That's why DEs, OLBs, and MLBs are the historically favored winners. Situational and/or rotational players are not the favored candidates and that's usually DTs and DBs. If Alonso manages to play all three downs for the entire season, his chances of winning get much better as he will rack up the stats that matter.

[3rdand12]

This notion of two rookies of the year reminds me of the fans here last year before the season telling me that the Bills will have one of the top D's in the league and that they might have the best pass rush in the league. Fans are funny people.

Heck yes. we sure are

[ganesh]

This notion of two rookies of the year reminds me of the fans here last year before the season telling me that the Bills will have one of the top D's in the league and that they might have the best pass rush in the league. Fans are funny people.

Actually it was not just the fans. Even the big media hypes like John Clayton was boasting that the Bills will have one of the best front four and that things are looking good for the Bills this time around.

[Heitz]

Seems like the gambling public agrees - at least about EJ and OROY:

 

http://blogs.buffalonews.com/press-coverage/2013/06/bettors-placing-their-money-on-ej-manuel-for-rookie-of-the-year.html

 

@sportsbook_com "Lot of action on EJ Manuel at 10/1 to win AP Rookie of Year, so moved to 6/1. http://bit.ly/bfEG8R"

[Alphadawg7]

Just curious if haters still think I am crazy about the possibility that we could potentially field both the OROY (EJ or Woods, but more likely EJ) and the DROY (Kiko)...

 

Both have had strong camps and looked really good overall today.

[mitchmurraydowntown]

Just curious if haters still think I am crazy about the possibility that we could potentially field both the OROY (EJ or Woods, but more likely EJ) and the DROY (Kiko)...

 

Both have had strong camps and looked really good overall today.

Crazy no, unlikely yes. Let's bury this until mid-season, I don't buy into the pre-season.

[Alphadawg7]

Crazy no, unlikely yes. Let's bury this until mid-season, I don't buy into the pre-season.

 

I didn't say it was lock...my original post to start this thread was that potentially we could based on playing time and the positions they play if they came out and played well. Both have impressed in camp and now in live game action. So, no one is saying they will both win, it was about the excitement that we have two rookies who can REALISTICALLY be in contention for rookie of the year awards on both sides of the ball. Normally we are just hoping someone won't be a bust, but this draft was excellent based on draft day value, and so far the young key additions have only increased that perception and have impressed.

[Big C]

Just curious if haters still think I am crazy about the possibility that we could potentially field both the OROY (EJ or Woods, but more likely EJ) and the DROY (Kiko)...

 

Both have had strong camps and looked really good overall today.

 

Or Goodwin. Based on today I think we can expect return TDs every game.

[mitchmurraydowntown]

I didn't say it was lock...my original post to start this thread was that potentially we could based on playing time and the positions they play if they came out and played well. Both have impressed in camp and now in live game action. So, no one is saying they will both win, it was about the excitement that we have two rookies who can REALISTICALLY be in contention for rookie of the year awards on both sides of the ball. Normally we are just hoping someone won't be a bust, but this draft was excellent based on draft day value, and so far the young key additions have only increased that perception and have impressed.

You were accurate in your possibility of getting these awards.

[tennesseeboy]

We definitely showed we had some very good rookies, but I think I wait til they get a few games in the regular season first