BisonMan Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Hear me out on this one. I just reviewed the list of every QB selected in the draft since 2005. The Bills drafted their QB of the future in 2004, J.P. Losman. That didn’t work out so well. Looking at the list of other QBs drafted since then is interesting: http://www.nfl.com/d...t?type=position None of the QBs drafted selected after a Bills’ pick in any draft is a starter in the league aside from Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco and Matt Cassel (who was cheered last week when he got hurt). 4 QBs in 7 years. 2005: Alex Smith: #1 overall. Generally considered a reach now and SF would not have traded that pick away anyway. They needed a QB. Aaron Rogers: #24 overall. The Bills didn’t have a 1st round pick and were in the first year of their first round QB pick the previous year. It is understandable the Bills didn’t trade away a bunch of picks for a QB most teams didn’t think was worth a high pick. 2006: Jay Cutler: #11 Overall. Certainly the Bills could have selected Cutler and that would have been a better pick than Whitner. However, as talented as Cutler is, he’s been a cancer on teams he played with and there is lots of criticism that he’ll never be a winner. 2007: No current starters drafted that year. Kevin Kolb is the only backup that is now starting. 6 QBs were drafted in the first 3 rounds (including Trent Edwards). Thigpen was drafted in the 7th round along with Fitz. 2008: Matt Ryan: #3 overall. Could the Bills have traded up to get him? Probably not. The Falcons really needed a QB and there were a lot of questions as to whether Ryan was worth that high a pick. Some saw him as another Doug Flutie, great competitiveness and smarts but physically limited. He’s proven them wrong. Joe Flacco: #18 overall. I think this is the first real miss for the Bills in these drafts. Many didn’t think Flacco could be an NFL QB. The Ravens got a lot of “that’s a reach” talk when they selected Flacco. He is certainly been better in the last 10 games he’s played than before that. So, 4 years into his career, he’s now being considered as being in the top half in the league. Only Matt Flynn (#209 overall) is still in the league. 2009: Matt Stafford: #1 overall. No way the Lions trade this pick to Buffalo. They needed a QB. Mark Sanchez: #5 overall. Seriously? Josh Freeman: #17 overall. I’m not thrilled with this guy and don’t think he’s going to pan out as a QB in the top half of the NFL. Not worth a first round pick. Of course, the Bills got Aaron Maybin so… 2010: Sam Bradford: #1 overall. No way the Rams trade that pick. Tim Tebow: #25 overall. The Bills don’t need a personal punt protector that badly. 2011: Cam Newton: #1 overall. I doubt the Panthers trade that pick. Jake Locker: #8 overall. Too early to tell on this one. He’s started so few games in his career. I prefer Darius at #3 over Locker. Blane Gabbert: #10 overall. Gabbert was horrid in 2011. I still think Fitz is better than Gabbert at this point. Perhaps Gabbert improves but it’s too soon to tell. Again, no way the Bills take him at #3. Christian Ponder: #12 overall. Again, too early to tell on this guy. He could be anything from a star to out of the league in 3 years. Andy Dalton: #35 overall. He’s an adequate starter at this point in his career. Cincy needed a QB badly with Palmer holding out. I’m not sure how much upside he has. Dalton’s passer rating in 2011 was almost the same as Fitz’s. It’s obviously better this year but they've only played 5 games. The Bills could have traded up to get him somewhere in the first round and lost a first round pick in a future draft. So, by my reading, only Flacco is a true miss by the Bills in the last 7 years. There were a lot more poor QB picks the Bills could have made that other teams did. Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O’Connell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Kellen Clemmens, Tavaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and David Greene. All were selected in the first 3 rounds. That’s one hit (Flacco) and 21 misses. Picking QBs is a dicey prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Good post but many will disagree thinking someone like Mallet would be better though he has mot played. Anyone would be different and that doesn't mean better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nervous Guy Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 That's a lot of good info! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Great breakdown. The moral of the story is that the bills are never bad enough to get the Lucks or RGIIIs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Good info, but the question on Dalton is will he turn out better than Aaron Williams? Bills did not need to trade up if they wanted to pick him at #34. As the case with this franchise over the last 15 years, it's not that they haven't tried to fix the QB issue (or most other roster spots), it's that they've been horrific in their attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Andy Dalton: #35 overall. He’s an adequate starter at this point in his career. Cincy needed a QB badly with Palmer holding out. I’m not sure how much upside he has. Dalton’s passer rating in 2011 was almost the same as Fitz’s. It’s obviously better this year but they've only played 5 games. The Bills could have traded up to get him somewhere in the first round and lost a first round pick in a future draft. So, by my reading, only Flacco is a true miss by the Bills in the last 7 years. There were a lot more poor QB picks the Bills could have made that other teams did. Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O’Connell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Kellen Clemmens, Tavaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and David Greene. All were selected in the first 3 rounds. That’s one hit (Flacco) and 21 misses. Picking QBs is a dicey prospect. This is a very good post and you make a good point, but you are wrong about Dalton. I think he's better than adequate and could have been had with our second round pick in 2011, without trading up. There's no question that it's difficult to find a franchise QB, but the point is that the Bills have not even tried for the past two years, despite having an inadequate starter. It's a cop-out to say none have been available. I'm not in favor of drafting a 1st round QB just out of need. A team that has serious needs at QB needs to draft one somewhere in the draft every year until they find the guy. There was absolutely no excuse not to take a chance this year on Russell Wilson, Foles, or Cousins. Or Dalton last year. Not saying any of them is the Franchise, but you have to take that chance. Now we will go into the 2013 draft in desperation mode and will probably reach or overpay for the wrong guy. Guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cage Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Good info, but the question on Dalton is will he turn out better than Aaron Williams? Bills did not need to trade up if they wanted to pick him at #34. As the case with this franchise over the last 15 years, it's not that they haven't tried to fix the QB issue (or most other roster spots), it's that they've been horrific in their attempts. This is a tough problem. While true they could have picked Dalton, that's really a hindsight miss. Its hard to fault them for that one and the poster had done a great analysis on how tough it is to get a Franchise guy. The issue is that there's only about 10 of these guys in a league that requires 32 starters. Look at all the misses and busts on that list of other QBs selected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 As the case with this franchise over the last 15 years, it's not that they haven't tried to fix the QB issue (or most other roster spots), it's that they've been horrific in their attempts. Yup. The trade up for JP Losman stands out as one of the worst draft day moves in NFL history. They gave away a ransom for an average QB from a mediocre team in a 3d tier conference. It's still hard to believe the FO was that inept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 This is a tough problem. While true they could have picked Dalton, that's really a hindsight miss. Its hard to fault them for that one and the poster had done a great analysis on how tough it is to get a Franchise guy. The issue is that there's only about 10 of these guys in a league that requires 32 starters. Look at all the misses and busts on that list of other QBs selected. Hindsight is very applicable here - not so much for not flagging Dalton as a possible franchise QB (everyone misfires on draft picks), but having enough confidence in Fitzpatrick and Thigpen to not even consider a QB in the 2011-2012 drafts. That decision is speaking volumes now. While Gailey should be commended for quickly pulling the plug on the Trent Edwards experiment, it's puzzling that he's tying his job to a guy that Edwards beat out in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjamin Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Great, informative post. Good research. I also disagree with the Dalton point, but really, that's 1 out of a bunch of guys. I also wonder if some of these guys were mismanaged too. Your overall point is still a valid one: There are very, very few QBs the Bills could've picked. As auburnbillsbacker noted: The Bills are consistently good enough to keep me tuning in every year for the last 30, and yet consistently bad enough for me to be disappointed... Therefore, no #1 pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HamSandwhich Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Great breakdown, I know a lot of people from the BB message boards should see this. May copy and paste if you don't mind. I would of course give you credit for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsRUs Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Someone mail this to WGR stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Fitz and Cassel were drafted in 2005, not 2007. Nix has had 3 drafts to address the position and hasn't elected not to, going with 5 journeymen from 2010-present (Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Thigpen, Young, and T Jack). Ponder and Dalton look to be the best of the 2011 class, while 2010 has thus far yielded little. Rebuilding without a QB is unique outside of SF who have defense and coaching to off-set that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BisonMan Posted October 10, 2012 Author Share Posted October 10, 2012 Good info, but the question on Dalton is will he turn out better than Aaron Williams? Bills did not need to trade up if they wanted to pick him at #34. As the case with this franchise over the last 15 years, it's not that they haven't tried to fix the QB issue (or most other roster spots), it's that they've been horrific in their attempts. My bad. Yes, Dalton was one pick ahead of Williams. I personally liked Dalton's competitiveness in college but wasn't sure his skills translated to the NFL. I'm honestly still not sure. His current team is certainly better than the Bills overall and he has more weapons to work with than Fitz. Time will tell on that one whether it was a poor decision. Fitz and Cassel were drafted in 2005, not 2007. Nix has had 3 drafts to address the position and hasn't elected not to, going with 5 journeymen from 2010-present (Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Thigpen, Young, and T Jack). Ponder and Dalton look to be the best of the 2011 class, while 2010 has thus far yielded little. Rebuilding without a QB is unique outside of SF who have defense and coaching to off-set that. You are right, I was looking at so many years at once that I got them mixed up. Cassel and Fitz were in 2005. Both in the round 7. Hard to believe everyone passed on them until then, huh? Great breakdown, I know a lot of people from the BB message boards should see this. May copy and paste if you don't mind. I would of course give you credit for it. Be my guest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Hear me out on this one. I just reviewed the list of every QB selected in the draft since 2005. The Bills drafted their QB of the future in 2004, J.P. Losman. That didn’t work out so well. Looking at the list of other QBs drafted since then is interesting: http://www.nfl.com/d...t?type=position None of the QBs drafted selected after a Bills’ pick in any draft is a starter in the league aside from Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco and Matt Cassel (who was cheered last week when he got hurt). 4 QBs in 7 years. 2005: Alex Smith: #1 overall. Generally considered a reach now and SF would not have traded that pick away anyway. They needed a QB. Aaron Rogers: #24 overall. The Bills didn’t have a 1st round pick and were in the first year of their first round QB pick the previous year. It is understandable the Bills didn’t trade away a bunch of picks for a QB most teams didn’t think was worth a high pick. 2006: Jay Cutler: #11 Overall. Certainly the Bills could have selected Cutler and that would have been a better pick than Whitner. However, as talented as Cutler is, he’s been a cancer on teams he played with and there is lots of criticism that he’ll never be a winner. 2007: No current starters drafted that year. Kevin Kolb is the only backup that is now starting. 6 QBs were drafted in the first 3 rounds (including Trent Edwards). Thigpen was drafted in the 7th round along with Fitz. 2008: Matt Ryan: #3 overall. Could the Bills have traded up to get him? Probably not. The Falcons really needed a QB and there were a lot of questions as to whether Ryan was worth that high a pick. Some saw him as another Doug Flutie, great competitiveness and smarts but physically limited. He’s proven them wrong. Joe Flacco: #18 overall. I think this is the first real miss for the Bills in these drafts. Many didn’t think Flacco could be an NFL QB. The Ravens got a lot of “that’s a reach” talk when they selected Flacco. He is certainly been better in the last 10 games he’s played than before that. So, 4 years into his career, he’s now being considered as being in the top half in the league. Only Matt Flynn (#209 overall) is still in the league. 2009: Matt Stafford: #1 overall. No way the Lions trade this pick to Buffalo. They needed a QB. Mark Sanchez: #5 overall. Seriously? Josh Freeman: #17 overall. I’m not thrilled with this guy and don’t think he’s going to pan out as a QB in the top half of the NFL. Not worth a first round pick. Of course, the Bills got Aaron Maybin so… 2010: Sam Bradford: #1 overall. No way the Rams trade that pick. Tim Tebow: #25 overall. The Bills don’t need a personal punt protector that badly. 2011: Cam Newton: #1 overall. I doubt the Panthers trade that pick. Jake Locker: #8 overall. Too early to tell on this one. He’s started so few games in his career. I prefer Darius at #3 over Locker. Blane Gabbert: #10 overall. Gabbert was horrid in 2011. I still think Fitz is better than Gabbert at this point. Perhaps Gabbert improves but it’s too soon to tell. Again, no way the Bills take him at #3. Christian Ponder: #12 overall. Again, too early to tell on this guy. He could be anything from a star to out of the league in 3 years. Andy Dalton: #35 overall. He’s an adequate starter at this point in his career. Cincy needed a QB badly with Palmer holding out. I’m not sure how much upside he has. Dalton’s passer rating in 2011 was almost the same as Fitz’s. It’s obviously better this year but they've only played 5 games. The Bills could have traded up to get him somewhere in the first round and lost a first round pick in a future draft. So, by my reading, only Flacco is a true miss by the Bills in the last 7 years. There were a lot more poor QB picks the Bills could have made that other teams did. Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O’Connell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Kellen Clemmens, Tavaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and David Greene. All were selected in the first 3 rounds. That’s one hit (Flacco) and 21 misses. Picking QBs is a dicey prospect. Great post man. Yup. The trade up for JP Losman stands out as one of the worst draft day moves in NFL history. They gave away a ransom for an average QB from a mediocre team in a 3d tier conference. It's still hard to believe the FO was that inept. Lets not forget trading up to get McCargo in the 1st round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian Bills Fan Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Yup. The trade up for JP Losman stands out as one of the worst draft day moves in NFL history. They gave away a ransom for an average QB from a mediocre team in a 3d tier conference. It's still hard to believe the FO was that inept. What did we give up for that again? CBF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 agree with most of this but the Cutler part.......................Cutler is the man and the Bears are 4-1. people can whine about cutler's attitude........but the boy can throw a fooseball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 agree with most of this but the Cutler part.......................Cutler is the man and the Bears are 4-1. people can whine about cutler's attitude........but the boy can throw a fooseball he can definitely throw it but there's no denying he has issues. bills' fans woulda kicked him out of town eventually, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maury Ballstein Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 he can definitely throw it but there's no denying he has issues. bills' fans woulda kicked him out of town eventually, that's for sure. doubtful......if cutler had as much time as Fitz always does........he would have a bust in the HOF before the season ended. Cutler rules......bears OL is a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 (edited) Off the Top of my Head we could have had Skelton, Mallett, Kaepernick, Dalton, signed Flynn and Traded up for Tannehill who all have way more ability than Fitz. Bottom line Nix has done nothing at QB and quite frankly looking at the rest of the roster he has not done well getting talent here. His 2010 draft was an absolute disaster, only Spiller from that draft is any good and it took him almost two years to get it together, the top 3 guys from 2011 are really inconsistent. This draft is too early to judged but trade up TWO WHOLE spots to get Graham, which isn't big deal if you don't get him, Could of had QB Russell Wilson or Nick Foles who is huge with a huge arm. Wasted a pick on Tank and from what I saw he did more in preseason than the bums (excluding Barnett) we have now. Wasted a pick on Asper could of had a Safety there like Markelle Martin or WR Tommy streeter. Wasted a pick on Graham and wasted a pick on Potter, do we Really need him. So overall Nix has not got the job done and quit making excuses for him not getting a QB. Edited October 10, 2012 by Buffalo Barbarian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts