How realistic is it for the Bills to have drafted a starting QB in the

[2003Contenders]

Agreed. I posted something similar last week in response too all of the people crying for a "Franchise QB". It is not that I disagree, it is just that these kinds of guys do not grow on trees -- and it is not as if the front office hasn't tried, dating all the way back to Kelly's retirement.

 

Going back to 1995, the year before Kelly retired, the Bills have invested the following draft picks on the QB position:

 

1995: a 2nd for Todd Collins

1997: a 3rd for Billy Joe Holbert

1998: a 1st and a 4th for RJ

2003: a 1st for Drew Bledsoe (the deal was made in 2002)

2004: a 2nd and a 5th for Losman

2005: a 1st for Losman (see above)

2007: a 3rd for Trent Edwards

2010: a 7th of Levi Brown

2012: TBD for Tarvaris Jackson

 

That does not count all of the free agents that they have sniffed out (AVP, Flutie, Holcomb, Vince Young...)

 

So, just since 1998, the year Peyton Manning (the model franchise QB) was selected, the Bills have invested 3 first rounders, a second rounder, a 4th, a 5th, plus a couple more late round picks on the position. That puts into perspective what the Redskins gave up to move up a few spots for RG3, a QB they hope will be THE guy for them for the next decade. (Yes, I know that the Bills had no legitimate shot at him, given that the Redskins were picking several spots higher and had more ammunition.)

 

IF there is a can't-miss guy like Luck or RG3 at the top of the draft this year, the Bills HAVE to do whatever they can to try to move up to get him. On the flip side of the coin, they cannot afford any more misses like they did on Losman. Of course, there were clear warning signs about JP coming out. There are warning signs for all of these guys -- other than Luck.

 

As I said, franchise QBs do not grow on trees. And 2/3 of the team in the league are in the same boat as the Bills looking for their own franachise QB.

[Nostradumbass]

Washington showed this year that if a franchise guy is available you pay the price and go get him.

 

If your football team is never really a contender until you have a QB, shouldn't your strategy be to keep drafting them until you hit? Nevermind that you think Edwards might be good or Fitz shows promise, I think the strategy should be aggressive pursuit of the best college QB's each draft year, regardless of what it does to your team depth.

 

Keep drafting until you find the guy, then begin building your team

[bobobonators]

doubtful......if cutler had as much time as Fitz always does........he would have a bust in the HOF before the season ended.

 

Cutler rules......bears OL is a joke

 

come on man..fitz isn't standing back there for 8 seconds like Cutler does..that's the point of the bills' passing game. Cutler has all the tools you want in a QB, but there's no denying he's missing something between the ears.

[peteski]

I like Nix's philosphy on drafting a QB. If he doesn't think he is going to be a franchise qb, don't waste the pick. We don't need another Fitz, Thigpen, Edwards on the team. We need soneone who will be a star on our team for years to come.

[Maury Ballstein]

agree to disagree.........Bears OL gives him zero time..........but they are 4-1 again....

 

Fitz is a joke of a qb which in turn makes buffalo a joke........you can't be a leader when you can't even man your own position (huge problem)

 

Cutler is moneybags IMO So is Romo but they both have their doubters i know

[BisonMan]

Off the Top of my Head we could have had Skelton, Mallett, Kaepernick, Dalton, signed Flynn and Traded up for Tannehill who all have way more ability than Fitz.

 

 

This is the best response to the Bills woes you can have. I call it the "neighbor's wife" position. I'd be happier with my neighbor's wife than with my own...I think.

 

I actually have no idea what it would be like. All of the names you list are completely unproven NFL commodities, with the exception for Dalton. In two years or so, we'll know for sure if missing Dalton was a mistake but today, there is no way of really knowing. As for the rest, all we can say for sure is that other teams with QB issues are trying them or that they are backups to teams with quality starters.

[papazoid]

i get it, drafting a QB past #1 overall is a low odds crap shoot...

 

but trading for or signing a proven free agent is low risk....you just gotta pay the piper in the form of draft picks and/or cash.

 

Fitzpicksix is an ok QB, whose biggest weakness is a deal killer, he throws a lousy deep ball.

 

now try explaining away all the PROVEN QB's that changed teams during that same time period, that the bills did not act on.

 

Kurt Warner(2005 F/A to AZ), Drew Brees(2006 F/A to N.O.), Matt Schaub (2007 for two 2's), Jay Cutler(2009 for two 1's), Mike Vick(2009 F/A to PHI), Brett Farve(2009 F/A to MIN), Matt Cassel (2009 for a 2nd, made a probowl and won div in 2010), Peyton Manning(2012 F/A to DEN), and a host of lesser names...fitz(2009), kolb, flynn, orton, palmer, hasselbeck.

[BisonMan]

i get it, drafting a QB past #1 overall is a low odds crap shoot...

 

but trading for or signing a proven free agent is low risk....you just gotta pay the piper in the form of draft picks and/or cash.

 

Fitzpicksix is an ok QB, whose biggest weakness is a deal killer, he throws a lousy deep ball.

 

now try explaining away all the PROVEN QB's that changed teams during that same time period, that the bills did not act on.

 

Kurt Warner(2005 F/A to AZ), Drew Brees(2006 F/A to N.O.), Matt Schaub (2007 for two 2's), Jay Cutler(2009 for two 1's), Mike Vick(2009 F/A to PHI), Brett Farve(2009 F/A to MIN), Matt Cassel (2009 for a 2nd, made a probowl and won div in 2010), Peyton Manning(2012 F/A to DEN), and a host of lesser names...fitz(2009), kolb, flynn, orton, palmer, hasselbeck.

 

There actually aren't a lot of proven commodities in FA. Warner came off a terrible season in NY and was picked up as a backup by the Cards. Brees came off an injury that almost everyone thought was ending his career. New Orleans took a big gamble and it paid off. Cutler is a head case and no leader. I wouldn't trade 2 #1s for him. By all accounts, the Bills went after Vick but didn't get him for reasons other than $$$. Brett Favre only wanted to go playoff caliber teams. Cassel is no better than Fitz. Manning was just like Favre.

 

Let's hone in on Schaub. He was Vick's backup in Atlanta and played a few games when Vick got hurt. Schaub was 18 of 27 in his last YEAR with the Falcons. Basically, he didn't even throw enough passes to qualify for an average NFL game, let alone a year. He did show promise and the Texans took a risk on him for some draft picks in the last year of his contract. Surround him with an awesome running game and one of the best receivers in the game and a great offensive line and Matt Schaub is a killer.

 

The Bills definitely should have found a backup that played well in a few games and traded some draft picks for him and...Oh, crap. That's Rob Johnson!

[K-9]

doubtful......if cutler had as much time as Fitz always does........he would have a bust in the HOF before the season ended.

 

Cutler rules......bears OL is a joke

 

I doubt that. Cutler is always a mistake waiting to happen.

 

One of the greatest arms in the history of the league. He can sling it like few ever have.

 

But his 10 cent head and maddening propensity to not set his feet when he throws always seems to get him in trouble at the worst times.

 

As long as his defense can keep him from having to win games or getting down early in games, he can be OK.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[BuffBill]

Hear me out on this one. I just reviewed the list of every QB selected in the draft since 2005. The Bills drafted their QB of the future in 2004, J.P. Losman. That didn’t work out so well. Looking at the list of other QBs drafted since then is interesting: http://www.nfl.com/d...t?type=position

 

None of the QBs drafted selected after a Bills’ pick in any draft is a starter in the league aside from Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco and Matt Cassel (who was cheered last week when he got hurt). 4 QBs in 7 years.

 

2005:

Alex Smith: #1 overall. Generally considered a reach now and SF would not have traded that pick away anyway. They needed a QB.

Aaron Rogers: #24 overall. The Bills didn’t have a 1^st round pick and were in the first year of their first round QB pick the previous year. It is understandable the Bills didn’t trade away a bunch of picks for a QB most teams didn’t think was worth a high pick.

 

2006:

Jay Cutler: #11 Overall. Certainly the Bills could have selected Cutler and that would have been a better pick than Whitner. However, as talented as Cutler is, he’s been a cancer on teams he played with and there is lots of criticism that he’ll never be a winner.

 

2007:

No current starters drafted that year. Kevin Kolb is the only backup that is now starting. 6 QBs were drafted in the first 3 rounds (including Trent Edwards). Thigpen was drafted in the 7^th round along with Fitz.

 

2008:

Matt Ryan: #3 overall. Could the Bills have traded up to get him? Probably not. The Falcons really needed a QB and there were a lot of questions as to whether Ryan was worth that high a pick. Some saw him as another Doug Flutie, great competitiveness and smarts but physically limited. He’s proven them wrong.

Joe Flacco: #18 overall. I think this is the first real miss for the Bills in these drafts. Many didn’t think Flacco could be an NFL QB. The Ravens got a lot of “that’s a reach” talk when they selected Flacco. He is certainly been better in the last 10 games he’s played than before that. So, 4 years into his career, he’s now being considered as being in the top half in the league.

Only Matt Flynn (#209 overall) is still in the league.

 

2009:

Matt Stafford: #1 overall. No way the Lions trade this pick to Buffalo. They needed a QB.

Mark Sanchez: #5 overall. Seriously?

Josh Freeman: #17 overall. I’m not thrilled with this guy and don’t think he’s going to pan out as a QB in the top half of the NFL. Not worth a first round pick. Of course, the Bills got Aaron Maybin so…

 

2010:

Sam Bradford: #1 overall. No way the Rams trade that pick.

Tim Tebow: #25 overall. The Bills don’t need a personal punt protector that badly.

 

2011:

Cam Newton: #1 overall. I doubt the Panthers trade that pick.

Jake Locker: #8 overall. Too early to tell on this one. He’s started so few games in his career. I prefer Darius at #3 over Locker.

Blane Gabbert: #10 overall. Gabbert was horrid in 2011. I still think Fitz is better than Gabbert at this point. Perhaps Gabbert improves but it’s too soon to tell. Again, no way the Bills take him at #3.

Christian Ponder: #12 overall. Again, too early to tell on this guy. He could be anything from a star to out of the league in 3 years.

Andy Dalton: #35 overall. He’s an adequate starter at this point in his career. Cincy needed a QB badly with Palmer holding out. I’m not sure how much upside he has. Dalton’s passer rating in 2011 was almost the same as Fitz’s. It’s obviously better this year but they've only played 5 games. The Bills could have traded up to get him somewhere in the first round and lost a first round pick in a future draft.

 

So, by my reading, only Flacco is a true miss by the Bills in the last 7 years. There were a lot more poor QB picks the Bills could have made that other teams did. Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez, Pat White, Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, Kevin O’Connell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Kellen Clemmens, Tavaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst, Brodie Croyle, Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, and David Greene. All were selected in the first 3 rounds. That’s one hit (Flacco) and 21 misses. Picking QBs is a dicey prospect.

The only point I disagree with you on is Dalton. The Bills didn't need to trade up to get him, they could have taken him with their second round pick, just like the Bengals did right afterwards. He wasn't just drafted that high because Carson Palmer was holding out, every so called expert said during the whole buildup to the draft that he was the most NFL-Ready QB in the draft, and he has shown it. Dalton also fits what you said about no pick after a Bills pick is starting at QB? That post is your opinion, and that is all it is. I would guess at least a good 75% of the GMs in the league would take Sanchez, Ponder, Gabbert, etc. over Fitz and they would be correct in doing so. Edited October 10, 2012 by BuffBill

[John from Riverside]

Great breakdown

 

Given the example you have just shown it is even more obvious to me that it is much easier to biuld the team up AROUND the QB rather then holding out hope for a elite QB....there just are not that many of them.

 

That is exactly what the bills have tried to do......they have been putting several picks (and free agent money) towards their defense and their O Line. We have also drafted some great LB's along the way but have been very unlucky with injuries there (I still wonder what Damien Covington and Sam Cowart could have become had he not gotten hurt)

 

The problem that we are having right now is we have the talent to make it work on our O line......and talent on our Defense (but that side is GREATLY underperforming right now).....if the defense was living up to the billing we would have a winning record right now not a losing one. This is REGARDLESS of the fact that Fitzy is at QB for us.

 

I still think the bills plan was solid.....but even solid plans fail sometimes.

[Billsrhody]

Flacco, Dalton, Ponder - all guys that we could have / should have taken. Especially in the 2011 draft. Huge question marks at the QB position and we pass up a couple of high potential guys. You wont see that happen in this draft. Guaranteed.

Edited October 10, 2012 by Billsrhody

[Buffalo Barbarian]

This is the best response to the Bills woes you can have. I call it the "neighbor's wife" position. I'd be happier with my neighbor's wife than with my own...I think.

 

I actually have no idea what it would be like. All of the names you list are completely unproven NFL commodities, with the exception for Dalton. In two years or so, we'll know for sure if missing Dalton was a mistake but today, there is no way of really knowing. As for the rest, all we can say for sure is that other teams with QB issues are trying them or that they are backups to teams with quality starters.

 

Seriously? Fitz is the worst QB in the League, we need an upgrade period and those would do it, And if they don't pan out you keep trying. Sticking with Fitz was asinine from the get go simply bc he has always had and will always have a noodle arm.

 

BTW Tannehill, Slkelton and Mallett given the opportunity will be good in this league, Look what Skelton has done behind the worst O-line in the League, he would kick ass behind ours and had he better protection would still be healthy.

 

Flacco, Dalton, Ponder - all guys that we could have / should have taken. Especially in the 2011 draft. Huge question marks at the QB position and we pass up a couple of high potential guys. You wont see that happen in this draft. Guaranteed.

 

Sure about that? (I hope you are right though)

[BuffBill]

come on man..fitz isn't standing back there for 8 seconds like Cutler does..that's the point of the bills' passing game. Cutler has all the tools you want in a QB, but there's no denying he's missing something between the ears.

That is one thing that gets me about Fitz, and shows that mental intelligence and football intelligence are two completely different things. Nobody will argue that there may not be a smarter player in the NFL then Fitz, but he still leads the league (or close to it) in stupid decisions?

 

Flacco, Dalton, Ponder - all guys that we could have / should have taken. Especially in the 2011 draft. Huge question marks at the QB position and we pass up a couple of high potential guys. You wont see that happen in this draft. Guaranteed.

With this front office, I wouldn't throw the "Guaranteed" word around too much, they are apt to draft another cornerback. Edited October 10, 2012 by BuffBill

[Saint Doug]

While I think this post is fantastic, it's applicability to the Bills is limited. We do not how many of these failed QBs would have faired on the Buffalo Bills. While not likely, perhaps Gailey could have better developed some of these QBs or perhaps they could have faired better under our system.

 

In addition, there are some QBs we could have drafted had they not been snatched up to ride the pine by other teams. Mallet and Kaepernick come to mind. These two will likely never get a chance to start on their respective teams, likely stunting any potential development. We'll never know how these guys would have faired on our team.

[Billsrhody]

Sure about that? (I hope you are right though)

 

The way I see it, if Gailey gets one more chance after this year he'll have to take a QB in order to save his skin.

If Gailey gets the axe, the first thing the new coach will want is a young stud QB to build around.

 

I just cant see any situation where this team doesn't take a QB with a first round pick.

Edited October 10, 2012 by Billsrhody

[K-9]

That is one thing that gets me about Fitz, and shows that mental intelligence and football intelligence are two completely different things. Nobody will argue that there may not be a smarter player in the NFL then Fitz, but he still leads the league (or close to it) in stupid decisions?

 

With this front office, I wouldn't throw the "Guaranteed" word around too much, they are apt to draft another cornerback.

 

No. He leads the league in not being able to execute the good reads and smart decisions he makes.

 

As much as all you 20/20 hindsighters lament not taking Dalton, we had good reason to draft A Williams at the time. Drayton Florence was the best CB on our team at the time. Enough said. In Williams, they were able to draft a CB with first round grades at a HUGE need position, in the second round.

 

To the VERY few who thought Dalton was a good pick AT THE TIME and actually had the balls to post that here AT THE TIME, I say you were right.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[cage]

he can definitely throw it but there's no denying he has issues. bills' fans woulda kicked him out of town eventually, that's for sure.

 

Cutler would have flamed out on this team by now. Whatever you think of his issues or arm, I can't believe he would have been successful with the Bills

[Charles Romes]

You are assuming a talent that emerged under a different organization would have emerged here. A valid question is seems is how many more blue chipper careers could have been wrecked by being drafted by this mess.

[Garion]

Great post OP.

 

There are a very small number of players the Bills had a real shot at that panned out.

 

For every revounding in a new location Kurt Warner or Drew Brees there is a Vince Young or Daunte Culpepper or Donovan Mcnabb who could have resurrected his career in a new situation but turned out to be as useless as the rest of the league thought.

 

Nobody is happy about the Bills success at finding the next QB but it's not fair to say they haven't been investing in it.