Estro Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 (edited) Julius Peppers and Mario Willaims are clearly 2 different players, but I think taking a look at Peppers value on the open market is the best was to project what Mario Williams next contract will look like. First let's look at a complete breakdown of Pepper contract (signed 2 seasons ago): http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/julius-peppers/ The first thing that jumps out is how much Pepper base salary was in year 1 ($20 million, that not including any of his bonuses). Upon further review though, that was because 2010 was an uncapped season, so the Bears worked the books to pay Pepper as much in year 1, while there were no financial restraints, to make his contract more team friendly in years 2 and beyond when the salary cap would surely return. So don't expect any team to hand out a base salary in year 1 to Mario Williams that comes anywhere near what Peppers got from the Bears. Nest let's breakdown what seperates these two prospects: Mario Williams > Julius Peppers: http://www.nfl.com/player/mariowilliams/2495982/profile -Williams will be 3 years younger than Peppers was in 2010. That's an additional 3 years of a guy in his absolute prime, a huge plus. -Stouter against the run. Julius Peppers > Mario Williams: {url]http://www.nfl.com/player/juliuspeppers/2505010/profile[/url] - Less of an injury history than Mario. Although Mario shouldn't have any lingering effects from his chect injury and prior to last season he only missed 3 games in 5 seasons. - Better pure pass rusher than Mario. 6 of his 8 seasons with the Panthers were double-digit sack seasons. Throwing last seasons injury shortened season out the window, Mario's had just 2 seasons with double digit sacks in 5 seasons with the Texans. The Bottom Line: The value of these 2 on the open market is very similar. If the salary cap were going to be higher this season than it was the previous 2 seasons, you'd have to factor that into the equation, but according to reports it will be almost the same. The biggest difference, which will drive Mario's value a bit higher is the fact that he's going to be 3 years younger, which can't be overlooked. I'd think Williams agent will anchor in around 15-20% above Peppers $14 million per year, putting his asking price at $16.1-$16.8 million per season. Because there will be so many teams after his services I think they'll be a team or two that will meet this demand. Final predeiction: 6 years - $100 million ($47 million guarenteed) You think that's a number the Bills would be willing to dish out? He may be worth it. Edited March 8, 2012 by Estro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffalo_bills Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Id take it anyday for a game changing pass rusher such as Mario. Signing him could be a franchise changer, and will certainly get us over the hump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Julius Peppers and Mario Willaims are clearly 2 different players, but I think taking a look at Peppers value on the open market is the best was to project what Mario Williams next contract will look like. First let's look at a complete breakdown of Pepper contract (signed 2 seasons ago): http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/julius-peppers/ The first thing that jumps out is how much Pepper base salary was in year 1 ($20 million, that not including any of his bonuses). Upon further review though, that was because 2010 was an uncapped season, so the Bears worked the books to pay Pepper as much in year 1, while there were no financial restraints, to make his contract more team friendly in years 2 and beyond when the salary cap would surely return. So don't expect any team to hand out a base salary in year 1 to Mario Williams that comes anywhere near what Peppers got from the Bears. Nest let's breakdown what seperates these two prospects: Mario Williams > Julius Peppers: http://www.nfl.com/player/mariowilliams/2495982/profile -Williams will be 3 years younger than Peppers was in 2010. That's an additional 3 years of a guy in his absolute prime, a huge plus. -Stouter against the run. Julius Peppers > Mario Williams: {url]http://www.nfl.com/player/juliuspeppers/2505010/profile[/url] - Less of an injury history than Mario. Although Mario shouldn't have any lingering effects from his chect injury and prior to last season he only missed 3 games in 5 seasons. - Better pure pass rusher than Mario. 6 of his 8 seasons with the Panthers were double-digit sack seasons. Throwing last seasons injury shortened season out the window, Mario's had just 2 seasons with double digit sacks in 5 seasons with the Texans. The Bottom Line: The value of these 2 on the open market is very similar. If the salary cap were going to be higher this season than it was the previous 2 seasons, you'd have to factor that into the equation, but according to reports it will be almost the same. The biggest difference, which will drive Mario's value a bit higher is the fact that he's going to be 3 years younger, which can't be overlooked. I'd think Williams agent will anchor in around 15-20% above Peppers $14 million per year, putting his asking price at $16.1-$16.8 million per season. Because there will be so many teams after his services I think they'll be a team or two that will meet this demand. Final predeiction: 6 years - $100 million ($47 million guarenteed) You think that's a number the Bills would be willing to dish out? He may be worth it. I might tweak some minor minor things but pretty good in my book here. id say hed be worth it. having that elite rusher on the end, coupled with our tackles would make us a top defense instantly, it would take pressure off of everyone else. and it would create impact plays we need. sacks, pressures, turnovers. will we? id say slim odds. id love it though. and ill note theres never been a question about his motivation like i remember hearing about peppers at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
....lybob Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 bonus 30mil- years 5mil 7mil 10mil 14mil 20mil 25mil - first 3 years guaranteed = 52 mil- cap hit year 10mil, 12mil, 15mil, 19mil, 25mil, 30mil- like most contracts set up this way he'll be let go before the finale two or three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 It would surprise me, if we were to pay that much for anyone. But the possibilities with a player of that caliber along side the rest of what we now have on the line would be astounding. I mean wouldn't we almost overnight be the best in the afc. Even if we only picked up a strong sideLB or two the secondary would go nuts with ints FFs and loss of yards. Thats with our current corners even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 I might tweak some minor minor things but pretty good in my book here. id say hed be worth it. having that elite rusher on the end, coupled with our tackles would make us a top defense instantly, it would take pressure off of everyone else. and it would create impact plays we need. sacks, pressures, turnovers. will we? id say slim odds. id love it though. and ill note theres never been a question about his motivation like i remember hearing about peppers at times. I agree entirely. Next to that franchise QB, pass rushing DE is the most important position in football. I can see the Bills offering that number, I just don't think Williams would have Buffalo at the top of his list. We would have to overpay and, at 6/$100m, there's little room to go that much higher to get him to change his mind. My concern is that he'll end up in Beantown. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny Posted March 8, 2012 Share Posted March 8, 2012 Since the word is that Peyton wont play in the NFC, that means we will most likely be facing Brady and Manning 4 times a year. Thats a quarter of the schedule right there and not amusing at all. Mario Williams might be the best way to counter Peyton going to Miami. (other than signing him ourselves of course) But as far as financially speaking... well thats a different story. I still dont believe its doable unless its the only free agent signing the Bills do. (Even then, regardless of the money, Williams will have the final say.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 If the reports are true, then Kamerion Wimbley and Dwight Freeney might be available too. Failing landing Mario Williams, I'd be thrilled if the Bills were able to get one of these other two guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marauderswr80 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Teams who are stout in the trenches are always in the playoffs....thats where games are won! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis in NC Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Some poster pointed out a while ago that Mario is an avid gun collector and that some of his weapons would be illegal to possess in New York state. That could be a deal breaker for some gun enthusiasts. Oh, and Ralph shelling out 100 million for one guy? That would be a shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 No way the Bills get this guy. For one I don't think they will make an offer but that's only because the Bills feel Williams won't want to come to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 No way the Bills get this guy. For one I don't think they will make an offer but that's only because the Bills feel Williams won't want to come to Buffalo. I think that feeling might be changing. On both counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimBob2232 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Jeepers creepers....where did you get peepers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Lightning Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Jeepers creepers....where did you get peepers? Beat me to it. On the issue though, Mario might like to play for a 4-3 guru like Wannstache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Nice post. Now that I have the benefit of your work.... ....unfortunately, I don't see the Bills signing him. It's not that I think they shouldn't. Clearly, if we get Kyle Williams back as expected, having Mario would mean we suddenly have a ridiculous DL. Christ, that would even make Kelsay into a potential all-pro. Kelsay, Williams, Dareus, Williams. Right? Well, it's nice to dream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaattMaann Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 even if Mario was to be crazy and come to buffalo, his gun collection would have ZERO bearing on his decision - most athletes would continue to own a home in his current residence (where his guns would be kept, that were deemed illegal in New York) while he lived in Buffalo area during the season.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D521646 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I guess one has to ask themselves how much a sack is worth, or a QB pressure? At the right time it could be worth lot's, but for your average run-of-the-day sack, $1 million per sack seems a bit excessive.. Just sayin.. Tim- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I guess one has to ask themselves how much a sack is worth, or a QB pressure? At the right time it could be worth lot's, but for your average run-of-the-day sack, $1 million per sack seems a bit excessive.. Just sayin.. Tim- Which is why you just can't focus on 'sacks' as the indicator of value. Pressures lead to more turnovers, for instance. As well as his play against the run. But most importantly, Mario Williams' value lies in what it allows your defense to do schematically because of the problems he poses for offenses. GO BILLS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramius Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Which is why you just can't focus on 'sacks' as the indicator of value. Pressures lead to more turnovers, for instance. As well as his play against the run. But most importantly, Mario Williams' value lies in what it allows your defense to do schematically because of the problems he poses for offenses. GO BILLS!!! This. Plus the fact that opposing offenses would basically require all 5 OLs to block the 3 of Williams-Dareus-Williams. That leaves our opposing DE or any rushing LBs free or merely having to beat a TE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickelCity Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This. Plus the fact that opposing offenses would basically require all 5 OLs to block the 3 of Williams-Dareus-Williams. That leaves our opposing DE or any rushing LBs free or merely having to beat a TE. I like the optimism, but all too often we see our Bills players making opposing teams' TEs look like all-pro tackles. But yes, adding Mario to the line would dramatically alter our defense. I'm aboard the Wimbley train right now - I think it's plausible, and it's a good match. Too bad we can't get Peeeeeppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I guess one has to ask themselves how much a sack is worth, or a QB pressure? At the right time it could be worth lot's, but for your average run-of-the-day sack, $1 million per sack seems a bit excessive.. Just sayin.. Tim- If only they did other things besides get sacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This. Plus the fact that opposing offenses would basically require all 5 OLs to block the 3 of Williams-Dareus-Williams. That leaves our opposing DE or any rushing LBs free or merely having to beat a TE. this. and i am ready to board the Kam train myself, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well, now that Mario is imminently signing with the Bills and it reportedly will be a 6 year deal, let's see how close my FINAL PREDICTION will be: Final predeiction: 6 years - $100 million ($47 million guarenteed) Can't say I thought the Bills would be the one to sign him, but I have a feeling these numbers will be very close to what the final deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Good call, estro. Considering it's 2 years later, and Williams is 3 years younger than Peppers was, the numbers are in-line with that contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bizell Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Estro, their sacks per game is very comparable (with the slight edge to Peppers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Estro Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yea....Imo the bills didn't overpay at all which makes the signing just thrashing much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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