Big Turk

There won't be any local forecasts until the day before that means much. Those are weather models...totals have dropped to 3-4 feet as of now on the latest update, but it's going to keep changing as we get closer.

I like some math, just not the Engineering Calculus and Physics... Algebra and Geometry I was great in. Am a software engineer so still do some of it although don't have to worry about the crazier stuff 🤣 LMAO! My only memories growing up about Marilla was our travel soccer team used to play games against them and we would literally play on a field in the middle of nowhere with corn surrounding it on 3 sides... When the ball would go in there none of the kids would go back in the corn...too many people saw Children of the Corn and we weren't having it 🤣 Parents used to be running back in there to get it and they usually took turns cause I don't think they wanted to go back there either 🤣

For now...things can change rapidly quickly as disturbances and short waves pass through during the event and change the wind direction. Sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse...and sometimes much worse 🤣 But yes, that's generally the case. I would expect a foot plus where I am at in the snow belt East of the airport by the time it's all said and done.

And there it is as expected... Winter Storm Watch has been put in place for Northern Erie county as well

I was a meteorology major for 2 years in school and still keep up with a lot of stuff in terms of reading forecaster's discussions and looking at weather models, etc pretty regularly. Still love it the same way I have since I was a kid who sat and watched The Weather Channel for hours at a time, just hated all the math and physics that went into the classes.

It has improved from last year when they were 28th Usually it means more attempts at tackles while being blocked which are going to result in a higher percentage of misses

That's true but ones where the Lake Temp is near record highs in the low 50s in mid November to early December often times are.

During the previous 7 foot events the initial forecast was for 12-18" both times. That kept growing and growing and growing as the forecast got updated. Went from 12-18" to 18-24" to 24-30" to 36-42" to 48-60" to up to 7 feet.

No, it was a whiteout. Go back and read the news coverage of the day. Or watch the clips of the videos they showed inside the stadium during when the game was supposed to be played showing the conditions. It's really irritating when people want to sit around and argue about things that they could easily go and look up but rely on "I know what happened" instead...apparently you don't.

Buffalo...and they never had 7 foot lake snow events. Yes, that was due to whiteout conditions due to heavy lake snow falling while 30+ mph winds were blowing with 50+ mph gusts. Nobody should be out driving in that and don't give me "this is Buffalo" nonsense. The only people out driving in that are idiots and people who end up in ditches on the side of the road calling for help.

Old Skool never had 7+ foot lake snow events. This is a relatively new phenomenon that started in 2014. It is literally not possible to clear that much snow that quickly. Especially while needing to clear sidestreets and neighborhoods so emergency vehicles can get down them for any emergencies that may arise.

One of the effects of the much longer lasting warmer temps we have seen in this area over the last decade or so that has basically given us an extra month-month and a half of summer for all intents and purposes...Lake Temps that are near record highs this late in the season mean there is much more moisture to pull from them...one of the biggest factors is the difference between air and water temperatures as the wind blows over them. The greater the difference, the more moisture gets sucked up. Warm Lake Temps in mid November and early December = Bad News Bears.

Yes, but the prevailing winds off the lake are typically in that area as the current storm placement passing by us favors veering winds with a W/NW flow after the frontal passage. Agree the "exact" location won't be known but since the winds typically shift and meander somewhat frequently especially over 3+ day events, there is a good chance most places in that area get hit pretty good. I mean 3 feet versus 6 feet maybe, but it still is going to be a lot of snow regardless. I would also expect Northern Erie County to get added to the party with a Watch/Warning as we get closer. Even during some of the heaviest 7+ foot events on record here there is significant time without snow in many areas as the winds shift slightly for a while before coming back...but when they come back they are dumping such a heavy volume of now that it doesn't need to stay over any one area long for multiple feet to fall.

Yeah, trust me when they put out a watch 3 days early it's coming and it's not going to be good.

Yeah that's what happens with Mid Major programs when you hire good coaches and then they get poached by big schools...you have to start over a lot. It's remarkable they keep finding good coaches so frequently that can build from scratch quickly.

Huge improvement over last year both against the run and pass, but especially against the pass...

You won't until a day or so before the storm hits. Those forecasts are based on normal mesoscale weather models not the microscale ones needed to predict lake snow effectively. The models those places are using have no idea what is going to happen. This is a localized event and they don't have the models for that. Additionally, much of this isn't known yet due to how localized these bands are and a small shift in wind direction can change the band placement completely and be the difference between places 5 miles away getting nothing or getting multiple feet. It's coming...they just can't give you all the details on a daily basis yet.

That's not positive, it's the exact opposite actually. A watch issued this early is because they are expecting it to be really bad and are giving people lots of notice to prepare for it. Watches are issued prior to 24 hours of the storms expected arrival at which time it will become a Winter Storm Warning or Lake Snow Warning. Early models showing 4-6+ feet

Wonder how many calls the 49ers made to the NFL office to beg them to move the game 😂

And there it is... Winter Storm Watch in effect already for multi-day duration Heavy Lake Snow Event from Friday to Monday. Issuing it early Tuesday afternoon means they are going to get hammered most likely. Would expect Northern Erie to follow suit later tonight/tomorrow once they get a better idea of the model with wind direction/storm placement.

Guess that went down in flames.

People know about it, they just don't care. Big difference.

No...people barely go to the UB Bulls games and they have been pretty decent to good for much of the last 6-7 years.

Well I guess you can't drop the ball of you don't attempt to even catch it...smart one QJ 🤣🤣

That man should be forced to catch balls from the JUGS machine for an hour before and after practice next week.