colin

im calling his floor on snaps this post season at 41.3%

the interesting bit is this data points out that the team's record is bang on average for the level that josh allen plays at, suggesting our D and special teams are replacement level over the past 5 years. the implication is there is a lot of room to improve, particularly given the consistency our QBR has had in the face of roster turnover, and going a different direction on D/special teams/coaching could yield us better results.

dawkins and brown are easily our most dirty and nasty players too. they get too many penalties, but they often pick fights and have never once turned one down. our interior line is good, but they get washed a bit more than i would like in the inside run game. they are elite in pass pro tho, being giant and long and strong and working as a unit helps there, but being nimble and athletic is a bit more necessary for dominant run blocking. KC's group does both, but their OTs are a big big step below ours. aside from lack of confidence in mcd and the d scheme/talent, the biggest thing i worry about for our team in the playoffs is big nasty rough physical dirty teams tend to get the better of us. hopefully the team will be inspired by dion and spencer's savagery this playoff.

brady's biggest failing this season vs last, and thus a great potential place for rapid improvement, is in not getting kinkaid up the field and open quickly. every other team seems to be able to get the tight end open between the hashes with little around him, but we just don't seem to do that. dalton's lack of inline blocking is prolly a part of that (can't just block his man a few times, and then sorta block him and release as easily) but there has to be a way to get a high talent TE open looking at the qb instead of trying to run back to the middle (which is how we seem to always use him).

i think this data shows brady has done a good job of getting max josh allen while running the ball more w rbs. also, the skill talent is way less now than in 2020. the line is better but the stats show josh turns pressures into escapes better than anyone else -- so net net i think the talent on o was better through the 2020 season than it is today. the consistency of JAs qbr given the total overall shortcomings of offensive talent around him (has he ever had as much talent as say the top 5 most talented offenses in the nfl, save qb?) says we have been a really good offensive football team, and our d, coaching, and special teams have been average in terms of wins and losses, and terrible in the playoffs (other data tells me that, mainly my eyes). brian billik was an offensive guru who got the ravens a chip, but he was ditched because his D there was great and his o stank for the most part. that organization would have fired mcd after 13 seconds, or at the latest after the cinci melt down. all mcd really has to do is get his d and dc to ball out for four games after next week, and then he's a legend.

I think they are gonna run von's legs ragged in the playoffs, groot and oliver too. i also expect we show different looks w the back 7. 4-3, taron kinda flexing between NCB and safety, maybe hamlin rapp and bishop in on a big nickel, stuff like that.

the argument seems to be better coverage w milano vs poor tackling. hard poison to pick, but good coaches will run the ball hard on us, denver/baltimore/kc/philly is nasty work with guys running hard.

The bills are the streakiest team in the nfl imo, it's just that JA and the O is good enough that while streaking they still only managed 3 losses, two on the D one on the O. if we can force turnovers, we are the best team in the nfl. we are the most game script dependent team since the manning led colts. imo it's not really about getting a lead, we had a massive lead vs detroit late and it still kinda sorta came down to the wire, and we had bad deficits vs NE and zona, but coulda won both of those games by an additional 7 if we really wanted to. i think its about the d finding some kind of answer and making the opponents waste downs or get penalties to get behind the sticks. we are so bad on d on 3rd down that we basically need a turnover, penalty, or the other team to make a bad error on 3rd down to get them off the field. that feels like a poor thing to hang your hat on, but we are 1st in fumbles lost both way, not sure if another team has done that through 16 games before. to our credit we are the best 2nd half team by a margin, and really it seems to be the 3rd quarter. we get ahead and just hold on, or put in the backups more than any nfl team i can remember. that's not to say we aren't totally in need of our O balling out, it's that we are in need of that plus the d finding stops or turnovers. if you look at our record this season, and prior seasons, we score 30+ in the vast majority of our wins. and of those wins and our losses where we scored a lot, i think we basically have to be the first team to get 30 points to win, unless weather or something insane makes it a smash mouth type game, that's what we need in the playoffs.

honestly, you might be right, but i think we need a gauntlet. there is an element of this team playing soft after easy wins. the jets game was an easy win, but it wasn't smooth to start with, and the new england game was an embarrassment.

the upside is how we have so many TDs on so few passing attempts -- that implies to me we have an extra gear if we mix it up and can be even more potent (which we saw vs the rams and lions). our yards per play is monster too. The downside is we are 1st in the NFL on Lost fumbles, Opponents Lost fumbles, and starting field position. There is a fair amount of randomness to those numbers, and I think the streak continued all season -- if we don't force a turnover we don't win.

Especially since KC has not looked good most of the time, and just seems to pull out close win after close win.

brady looks as good as dabol did (imo better, because it's less all over the place stuff and more systematic). I can't give him too much praise because of JA17. highest points per drive in NFL history is nasty work, and it's a team game, but Josh does more than anyone else ever IMO. Cooks and the line are a quality group, but I think we are all watching the Josh Allen show, and we know it. I do think (presuming the D coaches have found religion on this) pressing the matter more on D rather than letting teams have long drawn out drives is necessary. An extra two drives for the bills is basically worth a touchdown. That's crazy.

He has holes in his game, but he can bring some fire and is fast and strong. I have Joe, but he's not great so far

I think the Texans are shot, so I'll say the Steelers

It seems like we will see the broncos, then the ravens, then at KC. I suppose the ravens or KC might drop one at home before us, but that's really not likely. It looks like a tough road, but the ultimate get right chip would be the above and then mashing Philly in the bowl. I suppose cinci sneaking in and us beating them first would be the ultimate revenge tour, but I just don't see Denver losing to the KC b team

Given we are to rest our starters next week, this is only off by rams vs Seahawks (same division) and our seed (because KC has a ref shaped horseshoe in the butt). Shocking accuracy

Ok, it looks like the d plays a little better coming forward. Lol

Brady sucks

The kick rules suck. No drama after a safety, 39 being the default basically takes the punter out of the game on most plays. You'd think clapp would figure out his soft d is not great on 70 vs 80 yard fields, but no, he still wants AJ Klein and some ex Panthers out there

Milano is washed

We seem to have a big swoon after great games at the end of every year. Rarely losing, but still azz play. Remember the chargers game last year after the Great kc road win?

He always wants to be on d to end the half so he can call a TO before a big conversion

Brady has been really out coached here

What was that silly ass run on 2nd and shirt?

I hate these flipping refs so much