dave mcbride

I liked this passage: 'All those factors have amplified offensive success at the end of games. Defenses now must adjust. Paganetti predicted defenses may grow more aggressive, sending an extra rusher to mitigate the lack of pass rush from tired defensive linemen. For years, coordinators have been loath to blitz in two-minute situations so as not to risk giving up a big play. This year’s offensive success shows there may be just as much risk in playing traditionally. “If I was a defensive coordinator in the NFL today and I had a competent quarterback, I would stop playing prevent defenses,” Eager said. “The worst thing that could happen to you is the other team scores. And the other team is going to score on you anyway. I would play aggressively and try to force a turnover or force a long-yardage situation. “Having possession of the ball has never been more valuable in the NFL. If you’re going to give up a score, the upside is to have possession of the ball. The upside is to lean on the bad intuition of teams that will score too early.”'

It's pretty remarkable how much teams are more likely to score in such situations than in the past: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/10/20/nfl-game-winning-drives-two-minutes/

Blitzing in manageable down-and-distance situations on third down against a vet qb who gets rid of it quickly doesn't work. Brady's stats in those situations are off the charts, which is why teams stopped doing it ages ago. Tannehill is a good QB and will make teams who do that pay.

And if you're in, say, a 3rd and 4 or 5 and know the LBs have to account for Henry, then quick throws for firsts on crossing routes are really easy to execute. Pitch and catch, basically. A blitz can't do anything against them.

Are the LBs on your JV team responsible for accounting for Derrick Henry possibly running the ball?

Agreed. This is spot on. It's impossible to play decent pass defense in this situation. It's virtually impossible to be responsible for Derrick Henry in a serious way and also cover AJ Brown.

I don't think the backs are the problem in the run game. They're both fine. It's the interior of the o-line.

Ronnie Harmon made one of the worst plays in Bills history ... but he had a very good NFL career. He was an elite receiver out of the backfield in SD for a long time.

Jones can run, though. Keenum can't. I don't trust Jones either, but he's not bad in fantasy. I'm in a league where the entire draft was autodraft, and I ended up with Jaylon Hurts, who I don't think is any good. That said, he's been excellent in fantasy. Denver's defense is actually pretty talented. I think they may end up dominating. The Browns are in a bad place offensively.

Marcel Dareus was actually arguably the best DT in the NFL for a little while. His downturn had nothing to do with talent.

He didn't so much drop it as the defender got his hand in there. Tough catch but great throw.

I don't think Josh is the greatest of fade throwers, which affects the production. That said, he threw a great corner route to Diggs in the EZ which was defended (and there was a false start on the play anyway by Long).

Sort of proves my point. Holding happens a lot on both ST and regular play, but it gets called a lot more on ST.

second tweet in that thread:

Yeah, it all probably averaged out to about the 25 at the end of the day. The first four didn't make the 25 and one was at the 10 because of a penalty.

Yup. Part of it is a function of a running game that doesn't really work in the red zone if the runner isn't named Josh Allen and they're playing teams that are better than the Dolphins and Texans. I don't blame the backs; I place it on an interior o-line that's pretty talent-deprived in the run blocking game.

It's not just the Bills though - it's pervasive throughout the league and seems far worse than it was, say, a decade ago.

Enh ... he's playing zone. He's not really playing a man and there's always going to be someone open given the lack of a pass rush, TN's scheme, the quality of TN's receivers, and the accuracy/quickness to release of Tannehill. Edmunds shouldn't be blamed for this.

I swear to god that I think the NFL is trying to legislate returns out of the game. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say that between 33 and 50 percent of all kick returns (inclusive of punts) result in a holding penalty on the returning team. I can't imagine that STs are more likely to hold than, say, interior offensive linemen, but they definitely get called at a way higher rate. The hold on the kick return for a TD didn't bother me because I expect it to happen, but at the same time, even though he held a bit, it was nowhere near the play and the guy being held had not a snowball's chance in hell of getting within 5 yards of McKenzie. Anyway, ST returns are difficult to watch. I also think the Bills were kicking it short deliberately because they figured they had a 50/50 chance of a hold call that'd push TN back to the 10. Happened at least once and maybe twice (can't recall specifically). Anyway, it's bad for the game because it's bad entertainment.

Getting home field advantage throughout the playoffs is massively helpful. Just ask the Patriots.

Poyer was blatantly held, but that often gets missed.

That's awesome stuff; thanks.

Sam Monson at PFF has him at 29 out of 32 (that would probably include 3rd down sneaks and sounds more plausible given that he's been in the league nearly 3.5 season). That's 91 percent, which is pretty darn high.

I think it's more a case of the Ravens overcoming a raft of preseason injuries and getting better and better. They basically went into the season with no credible RBs on a RB-centric team. We shall see, of course.

Don't forget the last TD run. Other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln? Most meaningful statistic is points off of turnovers, and the Bills lost it, 7-3.