dave mcbride

Who is? The numbers suggest it's Jones. His ypa and adjusted ypa are off the charts too. Granted, I know he played for Alabama, but it's not as if Fields' didn't play for a similarly stacked program. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mac-jones-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/justin-fields-2.html Don't get me wrong -- I have no love for Mac Jones and don't really care who the Niners take. That said, I suspect it'll be Jones a) because most of the clued-in people think they will and b) because I think NFL people have a very different opinion of his readiness to do well in the NFL than people who focus on his 40 time. I may well be wrong; perhaps Shanahan doesn't buy the talk that Fields' floor is low. But I always come back to the fact that Shanahan has to win this season. If he goes 6-10 (let's assume JG has some injuries and Fields has to play), his job will be highly endangered -- he'll have had 4 losing seasons in 5 years and an overall record of 35-45. Just about every NFL coach gets fired at that point. Anyway, we'll find out in less than two weeks.

From Albert Breer’s MMQB column today: ‘Here are 20 other things you need to know … 1) When I had Dilfer on my podcast, he said that Jones has a “twitchy mind,” a reference to how fast he processes and plays. This, so you know, checks out with NFL people. One team told me that it asked him in April to recall the first thing they’d installed with him over predraft meetings, and Jones immediately spit out everything about the play. And remember, at this point of the process, these kids have a lot floating around in their heads, given the number of teams (and other people) they’re talking to. “He’s as smart as advertised,” said one exec. “I’d say borderline genius when it comes to football.” 2) Obviously, the possibility that Jones would be in play has led to a lot of intrigue with the Niners at No. 3. The team’s brass is still swearing to other teams that they haven’t made a final decision on what they plan to do. Seem impossible? Sure it does, until you really think about it. Of course, Kyle Shanahan had a leaning when the trade was made. He’d done two months of work on those guys. It’d be hard not to have one at that point. But what if, for argument’s sake, Shanahan came to a comfort level with one of the three quarterbacks (beyond Lawrence and Wilson) that the Niners saw as first-rounders? And what if he said, I can see Mac Jones being my quarterback for the next 15 years? And what if he was also intrigued by Lance and Fields, but used Jones as the baseline, the I know I’m going to like what I get at No. 3 regardless guy? And what if that was just the starting point for a month of work to get to know all three and make the best call? That, it seems to me, would be a smart approach for a smart organization. And honestly, I think it is their approach.‘ https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/19/mmqb-nfl-draft-primer-20-things-to-know-offseason-workout-squabble From Peter King’s column: ”3. SAN FRANCISCO. Today’s the last day of substance in fact-finding for the Niners, with GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan expected in Fargo at North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance’s second workout. The leader in the clubhouse is still Alabama’s Mac Jones, but that’s all Jones is. Credit to Lynch and Shanahan for keeping a tight lid on their preference. I keep coming back to Jones’ accuracy (his 77.4-percent season in 2020 is the most accurate in major-college history) and his touch downfield, with the best accuracy of the top five quarterbacks on passes thrown 20 yards or more downfield. I think Shanahan will value accuracy and presence over athleticism and prefer Jones, but that’s not inside info—just my gut feeling.” https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/18/nfl-draft-rumors-fmia-peter-king/

Shanahan cannot afford to have a losing season. If JG stays healthy, they’re probably a playoff team. If he goes down and Mac Jones comes in, I can see them still winning ten games. If Fields is the replacement, I doubt they win eight. I have a lot of doubts about Fields as a QB.

In Moulds’ prime, the Bills were still good. I think the point is that his best season — which is one of the best seasons for an offensive player in all of Bills history — came in 1998, a season in which he punctuated it by having the game of his life in the playoffs against the top passing defense in the NFL that year. He was just about as good in 1999, but missed a couple-few games because of a hamstring. The Bills were good in both of those seasons.

Enh ... Wentz was an above average qb in 2018 and 2019. Him regressing to the mean is hardly a sign of miracle working.

Judge a first round RB on their first four years. Smart teams should never pick up the fifth-year option anyway. He didn’t play much from scrimmage in year one, but averaged 14.6 yards for punt returns (elite) and had a huge kickoff return for a TD vs. NE in a game that ended up being a heartbreaking shootout loss, as you’ll recall. He returned a ton of kicks that year. In year 2, he shared duties but averaged over 5 ypc and had 39 catches. He was a game breaker who wasn’t used enough. In year 3, he was straight-up elite, averaging 6 ypc and nearly 11 yards per reception (both genuinely elite for a running back). I watched those games, and the stat sheet production mirrored reality — he was a game breaker. Then, in season 4, Marrone gets rid of the Gailey offense, which he excelled in, and puts in a neanderthal-like power offense which required him to power it up through the middle. He still had nearly 1000 yards and 4.6 ypc. Bear in mind that he shared duties with Fred J that year, and Jackson had 900 yards rushing too. The offense sucked, but they did lead the league in rushing attempts and were second in rushing yardage—and Spiller was the lead rusher for them. Then, he gets in Marrone’s dog house the next season, and the injuries hit too. After that he didn’t do much except for putting up decent receiving numbers in 2015 in NO. The point is, he had a couple of explosive seasons, one of which was fantastic, one pretty decent season in a terrible offense with a terrible qb, and then a slow fizzle. He wasn’t Aaron Maybin or John McCargo. For the four years you expect out of a RB these days, he was a pretty good player. I am NOT saying that spending a top ten pick on a RB is a good idea. It isn’t. But getting picked that high isn’t the back’s fault. Judge him for what he did relative to what one should expect out of the position rather than where he was picked.

My crazy theory is that BB doesn’t have any interest in winning the Brady way anymore: been there, done that, and he’s the greatest coach in league history. He has earned the right to experiment. For that reason I see him targeting Justin Fields, who can play behind a dead-armed Newton for a little while before taking over the helm mid-way through the season. My point is, BB hasn’t won this way before, and he is the sort of curious, intellectually-minded HC who wants to experiment at this point of his career. His legacy—which goes back to his Giants days, where he was the best DC in the league—is untouchable, and from his perspective, why the hell not? What does he have to lose? Winning via a different way will also show that he really can do it all. I could be way off, but I don’t think SF takes Fields. They need to win now (loyalty to coaches fades fast after two losing seasons regardless of circumstances), and he is just too much of a boom or bust player. Mac Jones has flaws, but he can play competently a LOT sooner than Fields, in my opinion. SF’s problem these last few years has been absolutely terrible backup qb play, and that has to end. If Fields starts for them this year, they won’t win more than 8 games given that offensive system. And I don’t care what Fields’ completion pct was at OSU; he is really just not that accurate. He’ll be exposed on that front in the pros, and therefore represents a real risk for a team like SF. But he IS basically Newton Mach II — big, fast, huge arm, and an “in the general vicinity” thrower. The Pats offense is currently built to help a guy like that succeed. I see the Pats targeting him, and moving up if they have to.

I am not sure of your point. Clemson is utterly filled to the rim with players who loudly identify as Christian. Sweeney wants those players. I don’t Chip Kelly cares, and the atmosphere at a place like UCLA or Cal is worlds away from the SEC.

Clemson is a state school.

Honestly, I’d say places like UCLA, Berkeley, and maybe Stanford.

Height should always factor in wingspan. It's why Hakeem Olajuwon, who was 6'10", played like he was 7'1".

Monson has the Bills taking Ojulari too in his latest PFF mock: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-mock-draft-new-england-patriots-trade-up-mac-jones-cincinnati-bengals-jamarr-chase. 30. BUFFALO BILLS: EDGE AZEEZ OJULARI, GEORGIA Buffalo has been looking for a complement to Jerry Hughes on the edge for so many years that the team is almost needing to also find his replacement. Azeez Ojulari is arguably the best pure speed rusher in the entire draft, earning a 91.7 PFF pass-rush grade against true pass sets this past season. He is a little undersized and slight, and he may be limited to a situational role initially, but that’s something Buffalo has been crying out for.

It's like you didn't even read my post!

Enh. He’s probably not going to the HOF, but it’d be pigheaded to argue that he wasn’t one of the greatest postseason performers of this era.

I can't name all of them, but a couple of these are easy. Ex-Bill Antowain Smith was the lead back for the first couple, and then Corey Dillon had monster season in 2004. First round pick Sony Michel had a great postseason run in 2018 too to go along with a strong rookie season. And there's always Legarrette Blount, who led the league in rushing TDs in 2016 and steamrolled the Bills a couple of times in the mid-2010s.

All the draft profiles of Ossai I've read say he's a 3-4 edge player. That's not the defense we run, of course. Why do think they could take him in spite of the scheme mismatch?

Just to play devil’s advocate here, with skydiving and bungie jumping, you aren’t really worrying about a broken leg or torn ACL, which you might well get from pickup basketball and dirt bike riding. Mistakes in the former two categories tend to produce more starkly existential outcomes, and you kinda have to throw your hands up at that. It’s not like you’ll be missing the guy for a season or haggling about contract payments for a player injured in an unapproved offseason activity. Basically, the potential outcomes lie almost solely on the extremes: healthy and alive or dead.

There was not one single post-snap penalty called on Houston all game despite the fact that Jerry Hughes was held repeatedly (just one example). And it was basically a five-quarter game.

Without a doubt, my least favorite Patriot ever is Walt Coleman. Not even close.

The crime rate among NFL players is heavily affected by the fact that they have median salaries of $860,000 per year. Moreover, I am talking specifically about violent crime (and violent crime only; beat in mind that non-violent drug offenses make up a huge percentage of arrests): “Though NFL players had a higher arrest rate for violent crimes during six of the 14 years studied, ...” And this is despite the fact that they are far more financially secure than the general population. And wealthy NFL players aren’t doing stickups on the street. Also: “Note that murder scores relatively high, but the raw numbers are extremely low (there are two in the database, though a third case — domestic in nature — resulted in suicide). But there are 83 domestic violence arrests, making it by far the NFL’s worst category — with a relative arrest rate of 55.4 percent. Although this is still lower than the national average, it’s extremely high relative to expectations. That 55.4 percent is more than four times worse than the league’s arrest rate for all offenses (13 percent), and domestic violence accounts for 48 percent of arrests for violent crimes among NFL players, compared to our estimated 21 percent nationally. Moreover, relative to the income level (top 1 percent) and poverty rate (0 percent) of NFL players, the domestic violence arrest rate is downright extraordinary. According to a 2002 Bureau of Justice Statistics Reportcovering 1993 to 1998, the domestic victimization rate for women in households with income greater than $75,000 (3.3 per 100,000) was about 39 percent of the overall rate (8.4 per 100,000), and less than 20 percent of the rate for women ages 20 to 34. That report doesn’t include cross-tabs, and it’s a little out of date (more current data is harder to find because more recent BJS reports on the issue do not include income breakdowns), but that sub-20 percent relative victimization among high-income households is consistent with the NFL’s 13 percent relative arrest rate overall (arrest disparities between income levels are probably even greater than victimization rates).” https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-rate-of-domestic-violence-arrests-among-nfl-players/

Yup. You have to a real affinity for violence to succeed in the NFL, and as I’ve said for years and years, “if not for the NFL, jail” for a distressingly high percentage of players. To expect people to be rewarded for that level of extreme violence 20 Sundays a year plus lots of practices and then to be able to immediately turn it off is ignoring human nature.

6.40 https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-allen/3200414c-4c52-9264-bedc-c4ddaf201fe7

Yeah, agreed. I also think that Darnold is an upgrade from Bridgewater, who is never going to get any better than he currently is. Bridgewater will never be anything more than a better-than-average backup (meaning he's still pretty valuable!), but Darnold promises more than that. It's still an open question whether he pans out, but he has a lot more upside than Bridgewater. Moreover, Ruhle can't have another losing season or the sharks will start circling.

I am not sure of the substantive point you are trying to make (other than snark). The Bills hired a SB-caliber DC and have gone to the playoffs in 3 of the past 4 seasons after going 17 straight years of not making the playoffs. Also, Joe Douglas worked in the Ravens personnel department for 16 years and was the VP of player personnel with the Eagles when they built a juggernaut beginning in 2016. The Eagles had the best roster in the league in 2017.