dave mcbride

I initially thought that I wouldn't be shocked if the Jets took a running back with their second first round pick given how bare the cupboard is there, but if you look at Joe Douglas's career -- 2000-2015 with the Ravens; 2016 as director of college scouting for the Bears; and from 2017-19 as VP of player personnel with the Eagles -- he's never been part of an organization that has drafted an RB first. The best you'll find is Ray Rice and Miles Saunders with late seconds. That's it. They desperately more o-line or a wide receiver anyway to help their rookie qb, so I can't see them going after Etienne/Harris. I can't see the Steelers being dumb enough to take a RB either; the last time they took one in the first, it was Rashard Mendenhall, whose career was pretty mediocre. (They got Bettis and a third for a second and a 4th, and Bell was a mid-second round pick.) Before Mendenhall, they hadn't taken a RB first since 1988, when they picked the bust Tim Worley. For a team that always has had a good running game, I think it's pretty clear to them that you don't need to spend first round picks on RBs. They spend them on Casey Hamptons and Alan Fanecas. So I can't see them taking a RB in the first either. As for Miami, they're another team that hasn't taken a RB in round 1 for forever. The last three they took -- Ronnie Brown in 2005, JJ Johnson in 1999, and John Avery in 1998 -- were colossal busts. The reason I mention this is because those strike me as the three teams most likely (at least in theory) to take a RB before the Bills and I just don't see it. I guess you could make a case for Miami given how weak their current stable is, but I have to think that second first rounder will be dedicated to the secondary -- they have to stop Josh Allen. Anyway, I have a hunch that at least one of the two RBs -- Etienne and Harris -- will be there when the Bills are up. We'll see if they can avoid the shiny object.

I am not in favor of drafting him, largely because he has 788 touches over 55 college games. He's old in dog years, as they say. That is a LOT of hits. He "only" averaged 5.4 ypc in 2020 after averaging a ridiculous 8.1 and 7.8 in the previous two seasons, but you can't hide the fact that the trendline pointed downward this season after 460 touches in 30 games the previous two seasnos. However, he is not a dump off guy (and nor is Kamara) -- he averaged 12.3 ypr on 48 catches last year and 11.7 on 37 the year before, and it wasn't because he was taking dumpoffs to the house with regularity. He has more ability to do actual wide receiver stuff than most RB prospects.

Um ... I think you’re not getting the joke??

Wrong you are.

Good thread. The Bills have only 4 safeties on the roster at present. I would not be surprised if they draft one early.

I think QBs are different. I think it's more about players like, say, Stefon Gilmore - a clearly good player at a premier position - whose contractual negotiations are going to be difficult. The Bills DID pick up his option, and he had his best season as a Bill: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GilmSt00.htm. The Bills weren't a good team overall, but if they had the coaching/offense of the last couple of seasons, that fifth year from an elite player might win them a game or two more - enough to maybe get them over the hump. More recently, the Saints picked up Marshon Lattimore's option, which was obviously the right thing to do. With a running back, though, I don't think so. And I tend to view MLBs as the defensive mirror image of RBs -- guys taking tons of hits and not really being game changers. There are a couple who are -- Kuechly certainly was, as is Devin Bush now -- but that's because they can cover. In other words, they're assets in the passing game. The number of RBs who are above replacement level in the passing game is pretty small -- Kamara and McCaffrey come immediately to mind. Kamara in my opinion IS a guy worth keeping (he does so much more than most RBs, like Marshall Faulk), but of course he was a third rounder. LeVeon Bell was another terrific receiver, but his career went completely sideways early on, mostly because of bad decision making on his part.

Teams actually still do care about the fifth year option, which only makes sense assuming you trust your judgment about whom you’re drafting. If they draft the next Stefon Gilmore, you can bet they’ll use that option. From Beane himself yesterday: ‘1. The Bills’ spot at No. 30 in the first round is a good one to attract offers. Teams may want to grab another first-round pick due to a run at a position and because first-round picks can be kept under contract for an extra year, via the fifth-year option that teams are allowed to apply to the contracts of first round picks. “I would be surprised if we don’t get some calls for 30,” Beane said. “We just have to make a judgement about how we see the board and if we’re willing to give it up. “I would definitely take this pick if there's a guy that we're excited about and we've got a good solid first round grade on,” Beane said of No. 30. “We're very comfortable staying at 30 and getting that fifth-year option. But again we'll just kind of listen to the board and see what happens.”’ https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/draft-deals-scouting-problems-and-more-from-brandon-beanes-pre-draft-news-briefing/article_f627bb96-a219-11eb-93f7-e77fce545469.html

And LOL: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/20/dave-gettleman-prioritized-devontae-booker-thinking-giants-cant-have-too-many-running-backs/

Postseason, dude. The fans of good teams care about that stuff, and rightly so. I am not justifying the pick; just reminding people that the highest level games against the highest level competition actually matter. The fact that people don’t work those stats into their evals is laughable. Not directed at you, btw.

My point is that in any measure of a player, if we're not including postseason performance, we're doing it wrong. He wasn't just good in the 2018 postseason; he was a legit difference maker who was a key player in all three wins. 71 carries for 336 yards and 6 TDs in three games vs. top competition is pretty great. I forgive a lot of year 3 decline if a player can offer me that in the games that matter most. See above. You should probably add in James White (4th round pick), who had the best SB of all these guys.

Good post, but ... he had a whale of postseason on 2018. That always counts in my book.

True, but Moss looks like a pretty good player who measurably improved over the course of the season. Closing the final 6 games at 4.85 ypc is first-round production. And Singletary is hardly terrible. My questions about him have nothing to do with the running game, but rather the passing game.

I think Moss is pretty good and I expect he'll have a surprisingly productive season. He came on late in the season and played wel , averaging 4.85 ypc over the final 6 games (257 yards on 53 carries). A first-round RB isn't likely to average 4.8 ypc. Plus Breida has averaged 4.9 ypc on 440 carries over his career. I think the Bills RB stable is actually pretty solid.

Why would you ever take a RB knowing that it's foolish to pick up a fifth year option when you can grab a good CB/OT/DE whose fifth year option you'll be thrilled to get? Avoid RBs in the first round at all costs and focus on positions where -- if the player is good -- the fifth year option is something you'll want to pick up. The 30th pick has a fifth year option. No one drafted after the first round gives you that option.

I was actually pretty impressed by Moss later in the season. I think he's going to be a good NFL back for 3-4 years.

The full guarantee in year five is what makes me very leery of picking up that option. He's a decent player with physical upside, but he's replaceable.

Great piece. Calling @BADOLBILZ ...

There won’t be a future if Garappolo suffers his fifth serious injury in six seasons this year (he had two last year that cost him at separate points) and the backup qb play sucks again. Four out of five losing seasons is not a recipe for job retention.

Our quarterback was ryan fitzpatrick. The top need was ALWAYS qb for close to two decades.

I know, but Alabama is the pros. You worry about only 16 games started at the 1 AA level.

We'll know soon enough. I will confess to avoiding even considering Lance as an option because of his limited play and missing all of the past season. He may be the best out of all of them -- I have no idea -- but I personally would steer very clear of taking him that early given what the Niners need from that player THIS year. I don't think it's a possibility.

So much of this comes down to who teams think has the best ability to guide a complex offense (relative to college offenses) against far more complex defenses than their college counterparts. Recall that RG III was an elite talent who in a Shanahan offense put up a great rookie season before immediately crashing and burning. I'm not saying Fields is that guy at all, but Jones is far more in the vein of the guys Shanahan has coached afterward: Cousins, Ryan, JG. None of them have cannon arms and none of them are mobile, but they have good-enough arms and are all good at running NFL offenses. Shanahan should have won a SB in Atlanta (his coaching cost them an easy win, not Ryan, who had a great game), and he had the Niners in position to beat KC but they lost it late on that overthrow by JG. Neither of those games showed that you can't win with those players given their coin-flip outcomes. I guess my bottom line is that I don't think Shanahan is totally safe (and nor should he be), and people in danger seek security. Jones may represent the most secure option to him given the nature of his game. I don't give a rat's ass if he's not deemed worthy of going #3. If you believe that a particular QB is the guy you need, then damn the torpedoes and go get him. And if you turn out to be correct about him, all the draftniks can go pound sand.

Hard to say. My wife went to MSU, and I saw a lot of Cousins in college. Jones is a lot better than Cousins was as a college player (not that Cousins was bad at MSU). Also, not to belabor the point, but Shanahan's won/loss record is what will determine whether he's retained or fired in the next 1-2 years, and terrible backup QB play is why he's 29-35 so far. The rest of the team has been at least pretty good the last four seasons. I don't think people factor that in enough. Job preservation mode is an actual thing, and the one area that I think Jones excels in vis-a-vis the other prospects is his ability to come in right away and be competent. You simply cannot count on JG to stay healthy.

I don't hate Fields or anything like that; it's just that in the games I've watched, he doesn't seem to handle pressure well and the ball doesn't come out quickly because of his uneconomical throwing motion. More broadly, I question his accuracy when under any pressure. He may turn out to be a great player in time, but I feel like SF needs someone who can play well NOW, and I think Fields in 2021 is going to struggle mightily with NFL defenses. Mac Jones seems like that player who can come in and get you to 5-3 if the starter goes down, and he does in fact have some boom potential. To be sure, Jones could be the next Matt Barkley (a great college QB on a loaded squad who was highly touted as a top five pick the year before he came out), but I doubt it. He appears to have a measurably better arm than Barkley. I guess I'd say the floor for him is Barkley and the ceiling Payton Manning (not in terms of projected career productivity; rather in terms of the productivity that results from his style of play if he's as accurate and as quick a processor as advertised). With Fields, I'd say the ceiling is Josh Allen (plus maybe Cam?) and the floor RG III. It is worth noting that Shanahan coached RG III in his great rookie season ... As I said elsewhere, I think NE is the best fit for Fields, but they'll have to trade up to get him assuming the Niners don't take him.

I truly appreciate the work you've put in, but how can a 77.4 percent completion-rate passer be only 69 percent accurate? Are you saying that 8.4 percent of the receptions were basically circus catches? Btw, this is a pretty interesting piece, especially the QBR data later in the piece w/regard to pressure: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/how-justin-fields-mac-jones-pro-days-compared-49ers-qb-choice-looms. The piece has good things to say about Fields too.