dave mcbride

That was thrown outside of the red zone.

Yeah, and these things are cyclical. I'd bet a lot of money that FSU becomes a power again at some point in the not so distant future. Same thing with Miami. Even in their down years they always have some excellent prospects. If I'm a top prospect and I think I'll play at FSU and sit on the bench at Clemson, I'm going to FSU and not thinking twice. They finished ranked 8th as recently as the 2016 season.

My point is that Diggs can be that guy, but the Vikings treated him just like they treated Percy Harvin - get the ball in his hands a high percentage of the time and let him use his top end speed with the ball in his hands to blow past people. It leads to 10-ypc averages, just like it did for Harvin despite the fact that Harvin was clearly one of the fastest players with pads on in the entire league. Christ, Tyreek Hill had a 9.7 ypc average on 61 catches (73.5 percent catch rate) in 2016, and that low number wasn't because he wasn't fast. In 2019, the Vikings went in a different direction given the offensive design and their use of Thelen, and Diggs did a lot more X receiver stuff. Point is, he's fully capable of being the speed guy, but because he's so good at everything he's going to get a lot of quick hitters to move the chains with ease. Anyway, he is fast. His game speed with the ball in his hands proves it. Don't knock 17.9 as a one-off either; Tyreek Hill has never averaged that in his career. It's a sensational number. All good, but no one can adjust to Allen's 60 mph flat-trajectory bombs if they're a little off target, even Robert Foster (who didn't catch a single one in 2019). Bob Hayes couldn't have adjusted. Just looked this up: Foster had an unbelievably low 16.7 percent catch rate in 2019!

There are a lot of extra point plays in a 35-28 game. That's nine alone, plus there also another 11 kickoffs (9 scores plus the 2 half openers).

See my other post about Diggs' speed. The idea that he lacks top-end speed is one of the great myths of this board at the moment.

I think a lot of people look at Diggs’ combine 40 time and think that he isn’t fast enough. I personally think that’s ridiculous given that he is always one of the fastest players on an actual football field and gets behind guys routinely. I mean, the guy averaged 17.9 ypc on 63 catches (with a long only of 66, so the stats aren’t skewed) in 2019. And in fact, in 2016, he had the fastest measured time in the league with the ball in his hands: https://247sports.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/Article/Stefon-Diggs-fastest-player-in-NFL-Minnesota-Vikings-48715901/. Point is, he is a LOT faster than you are giving him credit for.

I don’t think @BADOLBILZ ever said Sanders was “redundant.” Basically, having both on the field at the same time creates massive matchup problems for opponents. Assuming for a second Sanders doesn’t decline, he’s a better player for the Bills next season than Samuel would be simply because he is likely to be very productive and a significantly better route runner than Samuels. Long term is a different issue, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

C’mon. Of those 20 percent of ST plays, more than half (kickoff touchbacks on both sides of the ball, xps on both sides of the ball, gimme fgs on both sides of the ball) have outcomes that are basically predetermined before the snap. If there is a missed kick on the xp or short fg, that’s pretty much all on the kicker and the matakeviches of the world have zero effect on the outcome. I am not saying ST is unimportant at all, but let’s not exaggerate.

That’s kind of my point. All three of those guys (Beatherd, Mullens, Flacco) stink. It’s a good spot for Rosen. I truly believe Flacco is just going through the motions now in order to collect seven-figure paychecks. He certainly doesn’t strike me as the sort of guy who possesses the requisite amount of on-screen charisma necessary for a future in broadcasting.

Hard to read too much into this. Flacco has been awful the last two seasons, and this may be more of a commentary on Beatherd and Mullens, who both stink.

I think both you and @Hapless Bills Fan have made excellent posts, but I think you’re missing something about Allen’s deep ball. Speed of receivers isn’t really the issue; in pads Diggs plays well above his combine speed and Brown has always been good at getting to deep balls. The issue in my view is that his arm is so strong that he has simply never trained himself to put air under it. You say Wilson can drop it in a bucket, but it’s not like he’s any more accurate than Allen. He just hangs his fly ball up there longer so that the receiver can adjust and go get it. The low trajectory and velocity of allen’s bombs make that impossible, so it has to be pinpoint. Matt Barkley vs the Jets in 2018 and vs Miami in this year’s finale was hitting deep throws with regularity because his rainbows are much easier to adjust to assuming the receiver gets separation. Same with Orton and Sammy Watkins. Allen basically needs to add the long fly ball to his repertoire and stop relying, Giancarlo Stanton-like, on the line drive home run.

He was very good in 2010 for KC — 10-5 as a starter and a 27/7 td/int ratio. He was actually bad for the jets that year; his sacks were mostly of the garbage time/vulture type. He didn’t start any games and had an AV of 2. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MaybAa99.htm

Morst of his injuries since he got to the Rams have been soft tissue - quads, calf, and hamstring. Incidentally, I don’t think he was supposed to play in this past SB because of the injury, but the route running by Hardiman and Pringle was so poor that they brought Sammy in late. There were at least three throws to the former two where it was clear that Mahomes felt they didn’t run to where they were supposed to be.

The view in the league now is that if you have great corners, they tend to make the d-line look better than it is. CBs are more valued than d-line these days given how quick good qbs get rid of the ball now. Last year alone, 5 CBs were drafted in the first round and 2 DEs.

I think his point is that the 12-4 bears team won because of its amazing defense, not because of the qb. He’s absolutely right about that. It’s a team game at the end of the day even though qb is the most important position.

Enh. I think Goff is pretty good. Not great, but a little better than league average. If he had been a second round pick, people wouldn’t be so down on him. Same goes for trubisky.

Foster had a couple of other decent seasons. I think we’re looking for a one-and-metaphorically-done sorta guy. He started every game in his second season and was bad. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MillTe00.htm

To be fair, Yolo, with Goff there you can smell QB controversy. The talent/performance differential between the two isn’t that big. I think it’s wise for the Lions to avoid that, especially with a new coach.

Hollister does play ST. It’s mentioned in Vic Carucci’s piece today. I have been thinking about this. If they release him without getting, say, a fifth — a real possibility now — that is some very bad GMing by Roseman.

34 percent on kickoffs, but yeah, it's just an informed guesstimate. For the record, I thought it was dumb when Marv actually said it!

Yeah, snap count and play importance. Most ST plays are also entirely predictable unless there's a screw-up, which doesn't happen very often. 66 percent of kickoffs are touchbacks, and it appears that slightly over 50 percent of punt returns are fair caught. There are hardly any returns for TDs anymore (only 7 punt return TDs and 7 kickoff return TDs last year across 256 games) either -- the vast majority of points scored are the product of offensive and defensive play. Place kicking certainly adds some variability given that some kickers are better than others, and they are significant point generators (albeit reliant on the offense to put them in position). But the differences between them are pretty marginal and it explains why teams mostly regard kickers as interchangeable and never spend high draft capital on them. I'm not saying it's unimportant -- an advantage in part of of the game that comprises 10-15 percent of it can make a huge difference in a close game, and there are tons of close games in the NFL. So I'm totally on board with having a good place kicker. But overall, STs simply aren't that important relative to offense and defense. To put it another way, when you're saying that they comprise 1/3 of the game, you're clearly implying that they are of an equal weight to both the offense and defense. But that's preposterous given that teams spend just about all of their money and draft capital on players in the latter two categories, and the vast majority of plays (and scoring plays) are from scrimmage. If ST was that important, you'd see a lot more money going to ST players.

Totally depends on who the Bills have targeted and who is available at 30. If the people they like are gone, then you trade back. That's why this might go on until draft night.

He wasn't bad either. He basically played in what amounted to slightly less than 8 full games (he was injured in the first half of the Rams game, in the fourth quarter of the AZ game, and sat the second half of the last Miami game). Prorated, he would have had 66 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs over 16 games. He's also regarded as an excellent hitch route runner (scroll down for hitch route rankings: https://www.nfl.com/news/top-3-nfl-wide-receivers-by-route-michael-thomas-reigns), so it's not as if he's a bad route guy. I just think they were wary about injuries and him breaking down. Plus I also think that they view Sanders as an ideal fit for their offense--basically a mirror of Diggs. Tough to cover both of those guys given their expansive route trees and precise route running.

The premise of this thread is ridiculous, but special teams is DEFINITELY not 1/3 of the game. It’s more like 10-15 percent. That phrase is probably the dumbest thing Marv ever said.

We don’t even have a fourth! One thing that COULD happen is the following: The Bills trade from the 30 slot down to, say, the 36th slot on draft night and get a 4th in return. They then use that 4th to swing the trade for Ertz. As Beane said yesterday, you have to be patient in these situations.