dave mcbride

OMG. The Dolphins offense was horrible in that game. The Bills offense and ST gifted Miami most of their points and they averaged freaking 3.3 yards per play. The defense was fine in that game.

It's really about how for the first time a team that wasn't completely loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits broke through the super-elite team wall (Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia) to beat one of those teams in the playoffs -- and control the LoS. It says that this Alabama team had the second highest rated recruit class of any team since 2002. "But as Jalen Milroe, a former top-100 player in the 247Sports Composite, grabbed a low snap and charged ahead behind an offensive line bookended by two former five-star tackles and two more blue-chippers on the interior, he got stoned at the line of scrimmage. On the play, Alabama’s five-star right tackle, JC Latham, who will likely be a 2024 first-round NFL Draft pick, got pushed onto his back directly into the running lane by Josaiah Stewart, a former three-star prospect who transferred to Michigan after beginning his career at Coastal Carolina. Stars Matter. They always will. But Michigan, which won the Rose Bowl and advanced to the national title game in Houston next week, proved that in today’s college football, stars aren’t the only thing that matter. Michigan did something I’ve repeatedly said is impossible. Michigan proved me wrong. As a result, it has forever changed how I view the sport. For the entire College Football Playoff era — dating back to the 2014 season — the four-team field has been dominated by super teams that have consistently destroyed their peers on this stage, year after year, game after game, title after title. Until Michigan on Monday. That may sound odd given Michigan was an undefeated Big Ten champion and a 2.5-point favorite over Alabama heading into the Rose Bowl. But it’s true. So how are super teams defined? It’s all roster makeup based on recruiting rankings, the results of which are readily available in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite. There are two types of teams we find on this stage. First, the super teams built like Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia, the types of programs that have recruited so well over the previous four or five cycles that they have future draft picks sitting on the bench. They often have double-digit five-star prospects and enough top-100 players on top of that to have a huge margin of error in recruiting hits and misses. The second type is the “developmental teams,” the ones that recruit pretty well and do a tremendous job of evaluating and finding good fits. These teams are very good, but their overall roster strength pales in comparison to that of the super teams. People repeatedly counter the “stars matter” mantra with things like “coaching matters” and “development matters,” but that was always so tiresome to hear because it’s not like Alabama and Georgia don’t evaluate and develop their players. Their players just often naturally do things physically that lower-ranked players can never do, regardless of development, heart or time spent in the gym and film room. The super teams always, always, always beat the developmental teams at the end of the year. Well, Michigan just proved it’s not always. The 2023 Alabama team boasts the second-most talented roster — on paper — in the modern recruiting era (dating back to 2002). The average scholarship player on this team was a top-100 recruit coming out of high school. That is an absurd statistic. Even if half of the signees didn’t pan out, Alabama would still have 40-ish players who lived up to their recruiting hype and would be among the best players at their position in the country. That’s basically an entire two-deep. It’s unfathomable how many good players are on this team. Michigan, meanwhile, ranks No. 14 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite and has 16 fewer five-star prospects on its roster than Alabama. That doesn’t even account for how much more highly rated Alabama’s four-stars are than Michigan’s. The result? Michigan, a senior-laden team, beat the crap out of the Crimson Tide. Sure, there were moments when it felt as though Alabama was going to win in the second half, but anyone who watched that game saw the Wolverines physically impose their will on Alabama, all the way to the final play."

https://theathletic.com/5175155/2024/01/03/michigan-alabama-recruiting-rankings/ Bill: Not sure you have access to The Athletic, but this is a very interesting piece that I thought you might find interesting.

Ingram destroyed Dawkins when he played for Pitt in the 2021 season opener too. But maybe he’s lost a step.

McDermott wisely calling time out when on the Bills’ final drive Brady had them lined up in shotgun in third and less than one at the NE 26 yard line with 2:41 left. I remember earlier in the season McDermott losing it when Dorsey did the same inside the one, which predictably resulted in a failure. The call there is ALWAYS to sneak it when you have Josh Allen and the tush push remains legal. My strong assumption is that McDermott saw them line up in shotgun and thought “what the actual f**k??” and called the TO. The Bills then reverted to the smart play, which of course worked. It’s those calls that can be the difference in a game.

None of us knows the injury situation with any of these players because teams for excellent reasons don’t tell.

I think they need to do a real interview process next year for OC. I worry that Brady is riding his Cowboys game high still.

Remember Woods playing with a torn groin and Hogan playing with torn ligaments in his wrist in their contract years, and both injuries clearly affected their play in retrospect (ie, the one year in his entire career that Hogan had the drops). Yet the injuries were never reported, and both had surgery immediately after the season. Also, Diggs is pulling himself out constantly, which is so against type that I believe it HAS to be an injury.

I believe he is playing with a semi-significant injury.

I would add that on Allen’s deep throwing, he has reverted to line drive bombs that have to be perfectly placed because receivers have NO time to adjust. He is not putting the air under it that he did last season, when he solved his bomb problem. Diggs has been wide open on 3 deep passes in the last couple of weeks but Allen is throwing bullets that have no chance of being caught unless they are perfectly placed — which is damn hard to do on 65-air yard passes.

Why the EFF are you returning that?????

No flags have been called all game.

I worry that brady isn’t great at scheming guys open in the passing game. He is being outclassed by BB right now. Allen looks like a mess out there too, which ain’t helping.

It was a bad throw.

I fear we are watching a novice nfl offensive coordinator getting absolutely schooled by the best DC ever. There are no answers for Allen out there.

They have literally cost the team two losses on final plays because of miscues.

Is there a reason bass isn’t kicking it into the EZ given what happened on the first kick? Is he losing his leg? I worry about that.

There was a blatant block in the back by Brown that almost certainly would have been called. It was that obvious. Probably better that he dropped it.

He fumbled twice in his rookie season, and since then he has 2 fumbles in his last 1,145 touches! That is amazing — a 0.17 percent fumble rate since 2018. Cook’s rate this year is 1.6 percent.

https://buffalonews.com/sports/buffalo-bills-offense-new-england-patriots-run-defense-nfl/article_8229a43a-a5b2-11ee-aa81-f75714062b6f.html ‘The Bills have produced 350 or more net yards nine times this season, and 20 or more first downs 11 times. New England’s defense has yielded 350 yards just four times, and 20 first downs five times. It all starts with the Patriots’ beefy defensive front, which is holding teams to the second fewest rushing yards in the NFL – 84.8 a game. The Pats are No. 1 in yards per carry allowed – just 3.17. If that number holds up for the full season, it will be the lowest yards per carry allowed in the NFL in the past eight years. “It starts with their interior, not only eating up blocks, but keeping gap integrity,” Bills center Mitch Morse said. “I think they do a phenomenal job of keeping gap integrity, understanding how offensive linemen are trying to play them, not only before the game, but during the game. I just have the utmost respect for how those guys play, and for us to have any success, we’re going to have to compete.”’ I think it’s crazy to bet on the Bills given this spread. The Bills are 0-3 vs the spread when they’ve been favored by 10+ points and six of the pats’ last seven games have been one-score games. The one that wasn’t was a loss to the chiefs on the road, and it was only by 10 points. That said, I WISH that the Bills crush it and win by 28.

A lot more detail here: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/jamarr-chase-says-nothing-stands-out-about-chiefs-secondary

Martin is 32nd out of 33 qualifying punters in net yards per punt. The Bills have straight-up lost two games on ST blunders on the final play: vs the Jets and the Broncos. That's two too many.

It might simply be that the players have basically told him that Brissett needs to start. There's also the issue of Bienemy -- if Brissett gives them a better chance to win, then he'll be doing a solid for his OC, who will be looking for a job too. A similar thing happened in Vegas when they shifted from Jimmy G to O'Connell. I am quite certain that Rivera is not delusional enough to think he will keep his job. But he's not the only person involved here -- there are assistants and the players themselves. This is a team with a defense that is 32nd in both points and yards allowed. He is gone and he knows it.

He played very well in the first one too - 18/25 for 206 yards and 2 TD throws; 8.24 ypa; 3 rushes for 26 yards; and no turnovers.

It actually really matters because it means that the Bills' likely opponent as a WC (assuming Miami beats Baltimore and the Bills win out) will be Indy, Jax, or Houston. Otherwise it's probably at KC.