dave mcbride

It actually really matters because it means that the Bills' likely opponent as a WC (assuming Miami beats Baltimore and the Bills win out) will be Indy, Jax, or Houston. Otherwise it's probably at KC.

Yes, they surely did. A team with that level of talent should have been held to 170 yards and 3 points. They were HORRIBLE talent-wise on offense in that game. That same offense had 123 yards vs the Raiders before garbage time kicked in (late in the 3rd quarter when the Raiders were up 49-0). The Bills didn't force any turnovers either against that horrible unit.

I hope you're right.

They have a bad offense and a good defense. Problem is, they run a style -- taking the easy stuff in the middle of the field in the passing game -- that the Bills pass D struggles with. The Bills seem to do much better against defenses with elite receivers and QBs who work the boundaries than against teams that prioritize always taking the easy passes available in a zone D. The Chargers did it last week and did OK with virtually no talent, and the Pats shredded the Bills zone D in the first game this season. But yeah, the Bills should win. I just worry it'll be an ugly game. Honestly, after they got to 2-10, I felt that Belichick owed it to Mr. Kraft to lose out and maximize the chances that they can draft a franchise QB. Belichick isn't going along with that obviously correct strategy, however.

Will his seat have an obstructed view?

He likes fame, and will lose that if he stops playing. And someone will pay him $15 million-plus a year (at least). That's far more than he'll be able to make in any other line of work.

Excellent points. The Pats defense has been playing well lately. They've only given up 300 yards once in their last 6 games (326 to the Chiefs on the road) after giving up 300+ in the previous six games. This game is no gimme, although the Bill should win. If the Bills lose the turnover battle, though, they could easily lose. Ball protection has to be first and foremost in Allen's mind.

Agreed. That Ravens game was one of those howling wind games where passing games go to die.

Once you look around the league, you can see that he's a clear upgrade for some teams. Atlanta in particular sticks out like a sore thumb. The only reason they are under .500 is godawful QBing. They have no talent at the position.

Good call on Howell. He is a gunslinger who will pull out some surprising wins over a long career, but he's never going to be very good. His key issue right now is the sacks. He is a sack machine: 9.7 percent rate. You would think that's fixable, but then you look at Rob Johnson.

Well, he'd be an upgrade in Atlanta, which if it had Wilson would probably have won that division. The Steelers would be a 10-win team if they had him. He'll find a home. He's not the worst starting QB in the league even if he's clearly not elite.

I feel like Kirk Cousins would be a fit in a Payton offense, but he'll likely be too expensive given the cap situation.

There is NO conceivable way that Wilson doesn't make the HOF. Warren Moon is the only Black QB in the HOF, and Wilson is by far and away the most accomplished candidate (over McNabb, Vick, etc.). You and I both know that voters will be conscious of this issue. Mahomes and Jackson will get in, but they have a lot longer to play. Wilson's 167 career AV (from PFR) dwarfs everyone else's (McNabb is second at 138). People forget that he's had a bunch of spectacular statistical seasons.

Smart comment by Florio here. I'd take the entire cap hit in 2024 if I were them, but to be fair I don't know their cap situation well enough. It might be smarter to spread it out. Also, no one really talks about the actual money saved, but $37 million is a lot! https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/cutting-russell-wilson-will-create-a-cap-mess-for-the-broncos-keeping-him-would-too "The transaction will result in $89 million in cap charges, arising from money already paid and his 2024 fully-guaranteed compensation of $39 million. The Broncos can either take the entire hit in 2024, or they can designate Wilson as a post-June 1 release and limit the cap charge to $35.4 million in 2024 and $53.6 million in 2025. The Broncos eventually would get a credit for Wilson’s earnings elsewhere in 2024. If he takes the one-year veteran minimum of $1.21 million from his next team, that’s all the Broncos will get by way of credit. It’s still better than the cap consequences of keeping him. His cap number for 2024 would be $35.4 million under his current deal, along with $55.4 million in 2025. That’s $90.8 million. Also, cutting him saves $37 million in cash. Will this hurt Denver’s ability to field the most competitive team possible in 2024? Sure. But it won’t be impossible. The Buccaneers are closing in on a division championship despite carrying more than $75 million in dead money, with $35 million of it coming from Tom Brady. Also, with the cap going up and up and up, the relative impact of seemingly staggering cap charges continues to drop as the cap continues to rise."

The Pats have played 14 games and 10 have been one-score games. 6 of the last 7 have been one-score games, with the 10-point loss to the Chiefs being the exception. The Bills are also 0-3 vs the spread in games where they've been favored by 10+ points. I hate to say it, but I am envisioning a one-score game with an 11-point win the extreme boundary for the point difference. The Pats are an extremely well coached team on defense and will probably make life difficult for the Bills. I have a hunch the Bills will pull out a victory at home, but I also think it'll be a little ugly.

No argument from me! If I wanted to win the next two games, I'd have started him. But maybe they think the season is effectively over given all of the 8-7 teams, the Bills, and Browns. The one intriguing QB option would be signing Kirk Cousins, who is a FA and is the definition of an efficient system qb.

Wilson’s numbers are very deceiving. He has a sky-high 9.1 percent sack rate (it was even worse last year: 10.2) which is why they are 21st in net yards per pass attempt, 25th in yards overall, and 28th in plays per drive. Sacks are very often the fault of the QB, and in Wilson’s case it seems pretty obvious from the games that a lot of it is him. Sacks are total drive killers, and you simply can’t be a sack machine — especially when you can’t compensate for it by being a great running qb, which he no longer really is. He’s only slightly above average on that front now. He also has 10 fumbles. I advise that you check out the sack numbers. They are sky high. PS: In comparison, look at the sack rates for Brees over the years: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm

HGH is the best medicine available for quickly healing muscle tears, and most nfl players regularly suffer muscle tears of some degree due to the brutal nature of the game. Ban HGH and half the league can’t play on any given week either due to suspension or abstention from taking the medicine (out of fear of suspension). There is a reason the NFL doesn’t test for it and penalize players for usage. It would regularly destroy game-day rosters.

Unpopular opinion: Yoko Ono is one of the most interesting people of the 20th century. Have you ever read about her harrowing experiences near the end of WW II in Japan and in the years immediately thereafter? Or her outsized role in the mid-60s Fluxus art movement? If you went to UB like I did (for undergrad), you may have come across professors Paul Sharits (creator of the flicker film and a fluxus luminary) and Tony Conrad, who gave the Velvet Underground their name. Both were involved in that movement, which all preceded her meeting John Lennon. Anyway, go Yoko, who is 1,000 times more interesting than Taylor Swift.

Unsure of your specific point here.

Gotta say, Mahomes is awesome, and it was inevitable that KC would eventually have a down-ish season. The dancing on his grave that’s going on here is laughable. His career will be long, and the Chiefs will eventually retool. Yes to all of this, but they have the capability to fix it — and I strongly suspect they will. As long as Mahomes is the QB, they will be competitive (at the very least). In reality, Mahomes is having a pretty good (not great) season. Mac Jones has been straight-up awful, so the joke doesn’t work.

Oh jeez. Not what I said at all.

Magellan Miller!

He has 4 fumbles on 248 touches this season. That’s 1.6 percent, which is NOT good. In comparison, Latavius Murray has 4 fumbles in his last 1,164 touches for a 0.34 percent fumble rate.

Good post, but I qualify it by saying the Bills effectively had four turnovers. The series with the tripping, holding, and false start penalties plus the deep sack (resulting in 4th and forever) ended up giving the Chargers a much shorter field than expected and they cashed in with a FG.