Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

So reading all this, is this anything different than what seemed to be announced 3 to 4 weeks ago?

So who are you replacing them with and actually make the team better? You knocked $24 mil off with the 3 listed above, what actual improvement are you going to make with that money? It's doubtful $24 mil is going to improve the line all that much. Your initial post listed 5 players you wanted to cut, one of which Star will cost additional money to cut. I think it's reasonable that two of the three will be cut. With Star coming back the team has one extra D-Line player available, so it's feasible to cut Addison and one of the tackles and just sign a top edge rusher with the $16 mil savings, certainly doable. Anything much beyond that it likely becomes a one for one, cut/sign replacement. You want to cut four and sign two, the math doesn't exactly work out. Sure you could draft a rookie, but counting on him to contribute at the level of any of these guys you're looking to cut is not likely. I believe too that a big issue the Bills had this past season on the D line was do to bringing in a number of new players, then having no off season or per-season for them to work together. Add on top of that with Star's opt out, they didn't have any true replacements on the team for his role. They tried a number of these new guys in that role, none of which worked out very well. They did improve towards year end, but never to the level expected them to play at and to the level they were paid. Now you want to repeat the same thing in another season which likely is going to have at least some level of an abbreviated off-season. I would be fine with drafting a mid round rookie to play Stars role and let him sit on the bench this season and just watch, in 2022 or 23 then can reasonably cut Star and bring the rookie in. Like it or not the Bills scheme on the D line appears to be we're going to wear you down with quality depth so by the 3rd quarter our subs will be able to beat your best players as we're much fresher. That concept worked pretty well in 208 and 2019, not so much in 2020. What that does mean is the team wants 8 to 9 quality players on the line so if cutting multiple players need to end up signing more and finding money to sign them with and likely play much better than the player you're cutting for the same amount of money. How likely is that to wok out? One question I've often wondered, if Beane had known last year around this time that they'd be limited to no off-season, would he instead have more leaned towards signing Lawson and J Phillips instead of all the new players.

No problem, took me a couple minutes to figure it out as I said. I likely had never posted in that that thread if I were overly sensitive about the thing. I've probably had close to 10 now.

Full disclosure, I had no idea I spelled it wrong until seeing your response made me look up the spelling.

Normally it is, but he took his thyme! I went to see Dr. Al Fredo

I think that's the least of the issues. Panthers are rebuilding, if he wanted to come back, they'd likely waive his rights, or take a 6th or 7th rounder in exchange. Not that I think he's coming back, but Panthers having his rights can be easily dealt with. Think he's recall seeing him recently on TV down here in NC, still doing commercials.

I had a basil cell removed last week

Based on talent alone, Watt is likely worth trading a 3rd or 4th rounder for him. Based on talent, age, injury history, AND existing $17.5 mil contract, very unlikely anyone would trade for him and mainly due to the contract. The only way he gets traded is like what happened in Cleveland a few years back where the Browns received a 2nd round draft pick back, ironically also from Houston for taking on a high value contract. Granted this is a little different in that Watt only has one year left on his contract, but even then only about half the teams in the league have enough cap space right now to take on the contract. Houston would be even dumber than they already are made out to be if they didn't trade him for a 3rd or 4th rounder if they actually could have got that. They could have easily told Watts give us a few days or even asked him to give them 5 or 10 teams he'd be interested in going to, they then try and work out a trade. Likely that was what happened, Houston got no takers, so they were being nice in that they quickly released him rather than try and hope someone comes along with a trade offer next month or so. It's easy for Houston to try and look good in all this and they gave him his freedom without trying to trade him, but we'll never know if that is what they did or there were no trade seekers. But if what you say is true, then Houston's front office is even more incompetent than everyone thinks.

Here's my take: O-Line: I'd let Brown walk and use that money to sign Mongo, good chance that happens. Not so sure about Williams, think he'll cost too much so instead will extend Morse contract to reduce his cap hit for this season to free up some money. We'd then have decent starters and depth inside, but would draft a tackle in the 1st or 2nd round and sign a FA tackle for backup depth. Defensive line: I don't like the idea of going after a pass rusher in the draft makes much sense as those are two positions that take some time to excel at and we need good production and improvement in 2021. Instead I'd cut Addison and either Butler or Jefferson. The money saved would be close to $16 mil. With that I'd sign an experienced top edge rusher like a Ngakoue for around that amount. Mid round draft a true replacement for Star and give him a year to develop. Whichever of the combo of Butler or Jefferson that they keep, I'd redo his contract to save a couple million in 2021 TE: Similar to pass rusher, it takes too long to develop a rookie TE so would try and sign someone like J Smith. Could likely come up with enough money to sign him by redoing some contracts, Hyde, Matakevich, Beasley, Klein, Hughes, maybe throw in Diggs and cutting some other players like Smith I'd try and resign McKenzie, he can take Roberts place as a return man but also contribute to the offense so less of a wasted roster slot. I'd let Jones go as Gilliam can fill his role on ST. Certainly sign most of the RFA like Wallace, Boettger, and Bojorquez. The one slot I haven't yet mentioned is Milano. Would try to sign him, but with money as tight as it is not sure they can. Overall LB doesn't have much depth so would try to figure out a way to keep him, but nut sure they can. May end up losing him and Williams. Not to worried about Williams as he can be replaced quickly in draft. LB not so sue we'll get lucky again. Maybe the number make it easier to sign Williams and Mongo, and let Milano walk then instead draft a CB and LB 1st two rounds. My only concern then is we're bringing back the same O line that didn't do a very good job of run blocking. As mentioned earlier I'd use 1st or 2nd round pick on tackle and use the other on either LB, CB and also try to sign vet CB

Just read 2 mocks, one has a us trading up to #21 for a CB, other has us trading back to #37, believe it was for a tackle. In other words, who knows what will happen.

Welcome to the real world! Was reading here a few days ago, people were thinking we could trade Addison for a 4th or 5th rounder I believe it was. LOL

A couple comments. The Bills Tampa game is in Tampa so likely also a CBS game, not Fox In recent year there are some out of conference not held on CBS when road team and Fox when road team, but not many, and usually they involve the early 1:00 games . The late games usually follow the rules so likely will be on CBS. Only likely Fox games would be Atlanta, and Carolina As has been pointed out, won't be any early Saturday games because of college. It's not whether the NFL cares, it's whether that are allowed and don't believe the networks would go along with that. And if the NFL did, by 2022 they'd be college games all day Sunday on ESPN, ABC and NBC, something the NFL doesn't want to get into a war over.

Interesting that 3 of the 4 lowest rated are all from the NFC. They play the NFC South and AFC West, no cake walk there in either case. But they are rewarded for playing eachother so gives them all easy SOS.

While the size of a basketball court is smaller than a hockey rink, relative to a football field they are somewhat similar as is why hockey and basketball often due share facilities. I had been a few times to games at the Carrier Dome, I often stated that I had great seats for a football game (40 yard line) except they were playing basketball and I had great seats for a basketball game (mid court) except they were playing football (upper endzone)

Actually that's one spot I kind of ignored in my initial response. I think Williams played great this season at RT. What worries me just a little bit, is he one of these guys that played great because he was in a contract year? He was fantastic this year WRT pass blocking, but wondering how well he is at run blocking. McD was with him in Carolina, so he should know what makes him tick, but that does make me a little nervous in signing him. It's OK to have some rookies and UNFA at ST which they already had this year, but I do feel they need the couple of more ST aces. The problem the Bills had is they had Roberts, Matakevich, and Jones who were ST standouts, but basically didn't play anywhere else (think there may have been a 4th player I'm leaving out?). Would the drop off from Roberts to McKenzie for a return man be that bad as he also can more contribute at the WR spot too. Gilliam was also a ST ace to a lesser degree, but he now has a year experience under his belt and he also did contribute on the field so maybe he replaces Jones. May need to find a couple more good backups, but who also play ST too as that reduces roster spots, but will plan to use them on the actual playing field either offensively or defensively. Could be the 3 players the Bills have are no different in number of roster slots that most teams carry as never looked that closely, but certainly seems like a lot for no help elsewhere.

Davis can also do things Brown can't do either and never will as in grow in size. At 1/10 the salary hard to justify, even with a 50% pay cut, he'd still be making 5X what Davis is getting. Brown looked great in 2019 when he was the Bills #1 WR. As a #2 WR, not all that certain you're going to see numbers much better than what Davis gives you. To me Brown is one of these guys that became expendable once they drafted Davis. If the Bills were $50 mil under, great keep him, but rather spend the money on FA's that can help make the team better this year. Looking at 2020, there are really only two areas of the team that need little to no improvement, QB and WR, so spend the money elsewhere.

Can't cut Norman, Jones, and Barkley as they are FA's. They should be on the next line with players you're letting walk. Personally I'd prefer to keep Jefferson and let Butler walk as feel he's more versatile. Think Harris will be gone before the Bills get to pick from what I've seen projected. Unless Brown is willing to take a big cut I'd let him go as they have a much cheaper replacement on the roster already. You're cutting more players that you've signed. Realistically if you look at the Bills roster, they have about 40 to 43 SIGNED players likely to make next years roster. Add that many more cuts, you still need to add more players. Letting Jefferson Addison, and Murphy all leave, adding one FA pass rusher and rookies, IMO the D line just got weaker, not stronger.

Yeah but if given to entire defense, then it would be like the kids fighting over the keys for the truck! I did hear yesterday that the last couple of MVP's Brady's won, he gave the truck away to one of his teammates. They were even speculating that he'd be giving it to White. But then the other person commented that Brady's kid is now old enough to drive, so maybe he'll keep this one for him.

Yeah watching game last night was thinking I hadn't seen a QB run backwards like that from the LOS repeatedly in a long time.... last 2 weeks. It was a bit of Deja Vu of watching the AFC championship game.

They're not calling it Champion Bay for nothing! The new New England! Though not sure it's all that sustainable.

Problem is a person gets the award, not a position. Agree was pedestrian effort, but no one player stood out on the defense heads and shoulders above. Can make the same argument about 1 sack and 1 tackle, the rest was just what he's paid for and with the help of others around him. It's very hard for anyone other than QB, WR, or RB to win award as all others are too connected to those around them. What's there been about 2 defensive players all time have won the SB MVP?? Maybe if a CB has 2+ int's he could win it, assuming no one on the offensive side stand out.

Think you have to go to Australia to catch them.

The way I tend to view the WAR concept as it relates to football is through a very high level mathematical principal. With respect to WAR, does he pass the smell test!! LOL Don't think there's a good way to apply any real hard evidence, just more of a gut feel is the player worth the money or could they find a better more efficient solution. Maybe someone much smarter could figure out a way to actually develop some method to apply WAR, but not me.

I'd argue though of all positions WR and RB still may be the best two positions to look at stats Hmmmm.... interesting in that you say the Bills were 11th in pass attempts, but yet Allen was 6th among QB's. Does that mean that many teams had backup QB's also throwing that many passes that they dropped that far? There is no QB in the top 15 who played less than 15 games either so so hard to figure out that difference between 11th for the team and 6th for Allen?? There's 11 passes un accounted for Buffalo, recall a couple of passes by McKenzie and Brown. And 9 unaccounted for in Pitt. The other posters argument was one game Brown was hurt in 1st half, only played half of final Miami game, so add it all up means he played 8 games and for some reason he said Brown caught 34 passes in 8 games, so for 16 games that would equate to 68 catches. And BTW if as this poster was arguing Brown did have 68 catches, that would be the 2nd highest total for his career, topped only by 2019 with the Bills when he was their #1 WR You getting rid of 4 def lineman? So who are you going to replace them with and find the money for the new guys and how do you expect to improve the overall team. And BTW Murphy's and Roberts are both a FA so there's no saving there at all. Just two roster spots to fill The Bills only have I believe it's around 40 players under contract for the 2021 season so that's alot of bodies they need to find and pay for just to field a full roster. With a team on the verge of winning Super Bowl ,I'd hate to be counting on 6th and 7th round draft picks to make the roster either so maybe 5 draft picks make team. That leaves about a dozen slots to fill with either rookie or vet FA I haven't seen any statistical analysis for WAR, just more basic understanding. Actually most I probably saw was in the movie about the Oakland A's LOL Basic understanding is WAR Wins Above Replacement. You want to sign this expensive FA to take the place of some lower paid player. How many more wins will the expensive guy get you. Much easier to project in a stat driven sport like baseball. My gut tells me though Brown at a hit of $9.5 mil vrs G Davis at $.9 mil. At 10% of the salary Davis comes out way ahead in the WAR game. Think Davis has more chance of improving on rookie numbers than Brown does too. From Wikipedia: Wins Above Replacement or Wins Above Replacement Player, commonly abbreviated to WAR or WARP, is a non-standardized sabermetric baseball statistic developed to sum up "a player's total contributions to his team".[1] A player's WAR value is claimed to be the number of additional wins his team has achieved above the number of expected team wins if that player were substituted with a replacement-level player: a player who may be added to the team for minimal cost and effort.[2] Individual WAR values are calculated from the number and success rate of on-field actions by a player (in batting, baserunning, fielding, and pitching), with higher values reflecting larger contributions to a team's success.[2] WAR value also depends on what position a player plays, with more value going to weaker hitting positions like catcher than positions with strong hitting such as first base.[2] A high WAR value built up by a player reflects successful performance, a large quantity of playing time, or both.

Fair point. But I'd also argue that in the case of lineman either offense or defense, stats are harder to solely gauge off of in general. As you stated who they are playing next to and the system are bigger factors. Also age is a big factor which likely hurt Addison. WR and RB are more stat driven positions and easier to project future based on prior stats. In this case the poster only wanted to include the past two seasons, forget prior years, but also lets include 2019. I'd counter ok you don't want to consider years in other systems, fine, but then lets only look at 2020. Kind of becomes cherry picking when only selecting the best two years. But the more important thing, the poster was making the argument that in a full season Brown was on pace to catch 68 balls. My whole argument was that the only way Brown is catching 68 passes is with guys like Diggs, Bealsey, and Davis catching much less as when the QB is already completing 69% of his passes, there aren't more completions out there. Likely at the end of the year the number of catches, yards, TD's aren't going to rise when they are already at record breaking levels.