Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

You know when I wrote the post I spelled it wrong, it gave me 3 or 4 auto correct options. I selected one, even then I looked at it, kind of thought, this doesn't exactly look right, but Auto Correct would never make a mistake. So hit the send button!

Everything I've read says it would be a negative cap hit. They'd owe more money than they'd save. Unless Star has a agreed to give a big chunk of the bonus money back, but that very rarely ever happens. Likely if he tried the union would be all over him for setting a bad precedent

The fact that nothing has happened on Addison; reduction, restructure, or cut tells me they are targeting a couple of different players that are upgrades at DE. If any of them are to be signed, about 5 minutes prior to signing the new guy, Addison will be cut to free up the $$. If they strike out on any and all of their targeted players, then likely Addison returns either on a reduction or restructure or maybe then same deal. Typically on reductions or restructures you give the player something up front in return, either some guaranteed money or convert salary to signing bonus. But you don't want to do do that unless you are certain that you are keeping the player, so for now may not hear anything. Cue the post in about 2 hours announcing a restructure or something on Addison LOL

Does the legal tampering period also begin at 4:00 PM on the 15th or earlier? Trying to recall was last years draft originally scheduled for Cleveland, but then went virtual so they gave them this years afterwards?

I think once they traded for Diggs last year, Brown had to be worried. Not at all saying the Bills shouldn't have traded for Diggs, but if instead they had drafted a rookie WR in the 1st round, Browns contract would have been fine. The issue with him was he signed a contract that paid a decent amount of money, not top $$, but at the time he was signing as the Bills #1 WR, the amount of the contract was fine. Once Diggs showed up Browns contract was too high for the production gained by him. On top of trading for Diggs they then drafted two rookies, one who's looked pretty good and showed most of the season he was capable of replacing Brown again on cheap rookie contract. Brown became an easy target to release. Probably WR is the position with the most depth on the team and produced good results. Basically the rule in the NFL is if you can production from a player on a rookie contract that is maybe even half the amount of what the high paid vet is making, get rid of the vet.

That was my initially thought to, would have rather kept Jefferson as felt he was more versatile as to where you could play him. But pretty much all the write ups I saw, stated that Butler played much better of the two. Wouldn't shock me either if Butler is released in another day or two also. I think they both kind of ended up in a bad situation in that they were signed to play one role, but once Star opted out, everyone was scrambling as to where they should play. Even by year end, never came up with a really good replacement for Star. Wonder how much better they'd both have played if Star were here in his normal role.

Not sure it's nearly as high as 90% as many players think their worth is much higher than it is. Once they find out what the interest really is, they sign for much less and maybe back with their original team. Admittedly don't think Williams will be one of these as likely he will be gone.

Haven't seen the cartoon in a number of years but often seen it circulating: Shows three bucks standing on their hind legs with guns on their shoulders and 3 or 4 men strung up and the one buck says to the other "Look at the horn on that one!" PS I'm not a hunter BTW!

As I read that article and would read the write up on a player, I thought this is the guy they should go after, till I got to the next player, then thought this is the guy! They all have their pluses and minuses. I'm thinking they will go after one that provides strong blocking.

What shocks me the most is that Kiper was doing this as far back as early 80's when Kelly came along.

The only thing with Morse is could restructure him and end up with almost as much cap saving and not have an open roster spot. But did hear the comments about him not fitting the scheme best. Wil not be surprised if much of the guessing as to who is gone and who is re-signed is resolved by this time next weekend. 17th is getting close!

A Michael Lombardi article in The Athletic rips the Cardinals signing, stating they way over paid for him based on age, injury history. I'd tend to agree for $15 mil or maybe a couple more you could sign one of the top edge rushers and one who is still much younger too. Hopefully that is something the Bills are leaning towards. Need subscription https://theathletic.com/2426151/2021/03/04/lombardi-cardinals-overpaid-for-j-j-watt-plus-quarterback-rumors-galore/

I read it, overall was OK with most of the moves suggested other than would try to sign McKenzie and would prefer a vet backup for OT. With McKenzie and Roberts both gone not sure I liked the idea of turning over the return game to a rookie on a team poised to make a SB run. Also didn't like not signing a FA Edge. I'd cut Addison to bring one in.

To me seems tough on teams who are looking for new coaches Meanwhile a team like the Bills or Miami who didn't make the playoffs are already planning for next season, but the team looking for a new coach has to wait a month. Even the Bills while they were in the playoffs, I'm sure Beane had spent some time thinking about next season. Does this only apply to existing coaches on teams? What if a team wants to hire an out of work ex NFL coach or someone from the college ranks? Do they still need to wait? If not that's where all the new coaches will be coming from.

The only part that doesn't completely make sense to me was I thought long term the plan was the 17th game was to be on a neutral site. So by 2022 wouldn't they be ready for the neutral site concept? Hard to imagine there are enough neutral sites, counties interested in hosting a game though. Or maybe the Bills will be playing some NFC team in the Vietnam Bowl or something for lack of places interested.

Does it? I have no idea! I'm sure there is enough analytics data out there that can tell you what the odds under the older system was and whatever the odds were just back up the distance until the odds are the same. Maybe it's 4th and 23 produces the same chance of success, then go with that. Admittedly I'm not sure I like this rule, but do think the current setup is practically impossible to succeed at, even though the Bills did.

At the time many thought Ryan Leaf was a better choice than Peyton Manning based on college career and should have been selected #1 overall. Granted this time does seem to be more clear cut choice of Lawrence but never know. Maybe Wilson's game will project better to NFL??

Good article in the Athletic (behind pay wall) about 22 former first round QB's and what happened to each of them and where they are now. Some names barely even remember. The one somewhat surprise to me was Mark Sanchez was drafted in 2009. If you had asked me prior to reading I would have guessed it was 20 years ago. Seems like he's been gone forever! EJ Manual is one of the 22 BTW. Surprised ole JP didn't make the list, guess they didn't want to go back quite that far. https://theathletic.com/2419673/2021/03/02/nfl-draft-quarterbacks-breakups-carson-wentz-jared-goff-matthew-stafford/?source=dailyemail

I'm OK with most of the cuts except Morse. Initially I was on board, but read enough to agree with many that can re-structure his deal and basically the difference between cutting him and keeping him on cheap deal saves around $1 mil and doesn't create another roster opening. For that little savings, keep him. I'd also re-structure: Diggs, Beasley, Hyde, and Matakevic for starters gaining some more cash. Agree with signing close as top they can afford edge rusher and LB help Not sure I'd sign Williams, think his price tag will be too high. would rather draft much higher a tackle. Don't like the o-line that much with Nsekhe and Winters, would be surprised if either of them are back. I'd go with a line of Dawkins-Ford-Morse-Feliciano-rookie and bench of Boettger, Bates, Mid level FA signing, low draft pick You have 6 DT listed, they'd not keeping that many and your plan would leave them to have to cut cheap rookie contracts, considering how strapped they are for cash, that doesn't sound like a smart move. Based on your plan, you'd be doing a similar thing a DE too, cutting rookie contracts. Too many safety's not enough CB, need to switch out one, probably don't draft the safety, instead draft CB fairly high. You don't address TE at all, based on the team end of season comments think they want an upgrade there and likely need to bring in a vet as takes awhile for a rookie to learn the position. To me is signing three fairly big FA contracts, would go with edge, LB, TE, plus mid level Oline. Would be surprised if they let both Roberts and Jones go for ST play No idea on players to draft but would more go by positions and would draft in order: OT, LB, CB, WR, OL, LB

I'm fine with drafting a DT this year as Stars eventual replacement either in 2022 or 23 as is low cost now. But I look at it for 2021, they have Star and maybe they keep either Jefferson or Butler plus Oliver, Phillips, and Zimmer on cheap deals. That leaves either four or five DT without drafting someone depending on whether they keep/cut both Jefferson and/or Butler. Ideally they draft the guy maybe mid round, then someone steps on his toe or something in training camp so they can stash him on IR for a year to avoid any numbers issues.

Assuming Star is coming back and if he does he's to expensive to cut, I think we have enough players inside. Edge is where we're lacking. If we truly were in the running for Watt, that tells me Beane was willing to go close to $15 mil. Maybe didn't want to go quite that high for Watt and that's why he's now in Az. But that tells me he wasn't totally out of the price range so I'd go for the top DE's out there. At his age Watt may not be worth $15 mil, but there are some that are, and if Beane was willing to go to $12 or $13 mil, I'm sure he'd go a couple more for a younger better player. The only worry is who will ultimately be available on March 17th. Won't be shocked to see some of the top talent gets re-signed by then.

So the other 25 have a good chance of signing him! Basically stated Washington didn't want him at all, didn't expect him to come back, and didn't think he'd be at all capable of playing. Once he stated playing they came around, but was very awkward early on.

At the time I blamed it on my wife. What did she do!

So I agree with half of what Beane stated, "Yes it is a problem" but don't like his solution at all! Roughly 2/3 of the teams in the league don't make the playoffs, seems that kind of penalizes the majority of the league. I guess if I had the chance to address Beane on this I'd ask him: "So are you telling me between the time the clock hit zero in week 17 against Miami, and the end of the AFC championship game against KC, you never gave one thought as to moves you might be making in the off season or had zero discussions about anything related to this with McD, Terry or anyone else?" If TBD is any indicator, there was plenty of discussion about next season in that same time interval. LOL How many cut/re-sign John Brown threads were there during that time! And if you can only start interviews the day after the conference championship games it may be a week before you finish the interviews and make a hire. Meanwhile Beane and company at that point were definitely thinking about next year. Were the futures contracts announced like a day or two after the KC game? Didn't they sign Kenny Stills after the regular season ended? They got time to think about what they might do with him moving forward, something others still looking to hire a coach or GM wouldn't be able to.

So this article says Watt has narrowed things down. Jeremy Fowler reports Bills are front runner. Personally I think if you're going to pay $15 mil like reported there are better/younger options like a Y Ngakoue who are projected to get similar amount of money or cheaper amounts for players one peg down in talent like a L Williams. The only risk with guys like that are, how many of actually will become FA on March 17th or will be re-signed prior by existing team. Could end up with an empty bag by waiting. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/jj-watt-has-reportedly-narrowed-his-list-of-teams/ar-BB1e5IR6?li=BBnb7Kz