Einstein's Dog

WR: DHop/M Evans/J Addison/ J Mingo LB: Jack Campbell TE: D Washington RB: late R Johnson Give me a couple of those and I'll be happy.

Tampa...WR?...A guy compared to M Evans?....interesting... My only regret is I didn't set up a burner twitter account and mention I've heard M Evans to the Bills chatter.

How long was the JJ Watt thread? And you know who plays Von in this episode? That would be one Mike Evans of Tampa. Hear me out, Tampa has too much money invested in the WR room, close to $50M in the top 3 alone - M Evans $18M, C Godwin $20M, R Gage $10M. To get them out of that mess and stagger their finances they could go WR at #19 for a top 3 candidate, and move Evans to us. They would also pick up around a 3rd from us to help Tampa get more cheap labor (which they need). Tampa would do this the night of the draft to pretend like it was a WR they couldn't pass up. But that's really just part of the smokescreen to divert the outrage of what would have been moving a fan favorite. Just because we haven't heard anything doesn't mean it's not in play. It's the way Beane operates.

If they get DHop then would you mind Captain Jack? Sure WR is more exciting but if they can cover that, IMO JC would be a good choice. It does seem like T Simpson or D Sanders would fit the coverage lb theory a little better. So McD would have to tweak a little to get this talent in. But no player has the intangibles that Campbell has in terms of old school, no social media, no NIL, captain of team - just screams an easy to root for guy. Currently don't have a player in the back 7 that can lay the lumber. Milano is as close as we come and he isn't quite there, and Simpson and/or Sanders certainly don't qualify. At 6'5" 250, with room to grow Campbell can add an element to the D. McD has alluded to the D being a little soft. By all accounts JC is extremely coachable and will take on the role they want. He has awards for intelligence. And lastly, I think Campbell would be a no mess easy extension candidate after 3 years. A Milano type, fair, borderline team friendly get the deal done, 8 year Bill. Love those type of players.

It happens, just need the contract done prior. So maybe Beane is cooking up the 3 way trade, DHop (and AZ eats $4M of the $19M) for Oliver, and then AZ is trading Oliver to Houston for a 2nd (where Houston has reworked his contract to include an extension). Something like that.

I agree, they may have eyes on Addison but if he doesn't make it within range, then go the DHop route (although I prefer the DHop route). I wonder if they would unleash the Oliver transaction at the same time. I believe the FO would need to move Oliver to make finances work for DHop, even if AZ eats a portion of the $19M. And the available DLs at 27 might make a difference between doing the slide down to 34 method or just giving an outright 3rd rounder.

Now do the failures, the flops, the misses. I want the certainty of DHop over the roll of the dice WR and an overpay on the DL (looking at you Oliver). Many of us (myself included) wanted a redistribution of assets to the offensive side of the ball and the FO has so far been on course (Edmunds gone, hardball on Poyer, Oliver iffy). C'mon Beane bring it home with DHop!!!!

Yeah, that's new to me. Kind of a bummer though, because I was hoping the Bills would be targeting this man-mountain. He has a lot of physical traits that could make him special. Plus seems like he would be amenable to starting out with a large blocking role. But failing Medicals? What happened? Sounds bad.

I thought at one point DHop said he didn't want a raise. I took it to mean that he would accept a trade if the team picked up the remaining $34M in his contract the next two years. I doubt AZ wants to pick up much more on DHop's contract since it looks like the primary motivation to move him is a salary dump as they slightly rebuild. $34M for two years of DHop is a good deal. Look at Spotrac AAV's for WRs - C Kirk $18M, M Williams $20M, DJ Moore $20M, T McLaurin $23M, C Godwin $20M, T Lockett $17M, D Johnson $18M, H Renfrow $16M, and OBJ just hobbled into $15M. And if you restructure into additional years and add some guarantees, a signing bonus, you can play around with the cap hit a bit.

I think for the Bills they might be waiting for the draft. If Addison moves within a predetermined amount, maybe a 3rd or a 4th (+our 27) they go for him. If Addison is gone by then Beane activates his DHop plan, which might be using that 3rd or 4th, plus probably an independent move to do something with Oliver (because of the cap money needed).

You should be excited! Very good chance something is going to happen in regards to WR/TE! I don't want D Wright. Give me J Addison, Q Johnston, or trade for DHop - that's exciting. All possibilities. Even the TEs offer intrigue - D Kincaid big playmaker, D Washington a man mountain that would challenge Dorsey to create some different looks. The odds for the Bills going for a WR/TE early are as high as they have been since the Diggs trade.

You forgot J Addison and Q Johnston. I think those two are extremely likely targets and I would be excited if it happened. I would go so far as to hope if those two are not available the FO would trade down, and that stands even if B Robinson and/or D Kincaid are still on board.

My reasons against taking an RB in the 1st: 1. Finances - the Bills are going with an inexpensive RB room. Taking an RB at 27 is a $2,5M addition, more than Cooks or Harris make now. 2. Offensive philosophy - the Bills have what may arguably be the best 25-30 yard passer in football. I want the offense to be built around that. 3. 5th year option - generally you don't want to be the team that is doing the second contract for an aging RB. Those contracts are expensive and the RB will generally start fading earlier than other positions. Also lately 1st round RBs won't serve their fifth year without a new contract - Zeke/Bell. 4. Opportunity cost - kind of goes with 2 and 3 but taking an RB has you miss out on someone else. For instance I have started coming around to the man mountain D Washington, prefer him over any RB.

I'm with you Alpha - not only that, but the whole fixation on just draft picks misses the point at times. For instance, if the FO gets DHop, this criticism doesn't end. And imagine if to get DHop they move Oliver, and then draft defense first round. True, it's a first round pick for defense but pretty disingenuous to think the FO wasn't focused on increasing the offense this offseason.

I agree, the 14-4 results are hard to argue. That's a good season. But the FO did seem to make a change with Frazier even though he had good results and good D rankings. I don't know if it is reasonable to make such a change just based off of the small sample size of disappointment from playoff losses, so I am hoping it is more than that. I like the change and am hoping it is a sign that they are moving away from what looked to me to be a passive, predictable defense. Also strategically, I never agreed with the bend but don't break strategy we seemed to start with. Going against lesser QBs and giving them the 5-7 yarders didn't make sense to me. The Mac Jones/Tua/Wilson's of the world, live for those - it's the 25 yarders they would be hesitant to take and hard for them to make. But I really couldn't argue with the results, the lesser QBs rarely beat us. Would still like us to change it up.

Can't do it. They know a lot of people like me are addicted. For instance, Maurice Jones-Drew (who is terrible at this) has put out his again at nfl.com mock 1. And yes, I read through it. He has Bijan going 10, J Gibbs - who he likes better going at 26 to Dallas (MJD has consistently overvalued RBs). Of note, has D Wright going 17, J Addison 22, Bills taking C Kancey, and right after Cincy goes with D Kincaid. No mlbs and no Q Johnston in the first round.

There is a path to being able to afford DHop. That was get Poyer at a discount, let Edmunds walk, and trade Oliver. It is still a possibility. DHop is in the discussion because he would improve the team immediately. There is more than one way to improve a team, and this route is still possible. It would also make the Bills an incredibly exciting team to watch.

I guess you need to price out DHop. As others mentioned OBJ just got $15M and he should be less than DHop (more question marks). According to Spotrac average salaries, with DJ Moore at $20M, Terry McLaurin at $22M, Godwin/M Williams/A Cooper all at $20M. DHop's contract does not look out of line to me, and I believe DHop said he wasn't looking for a raise.

A couple things. There's no guarantee AZ would release DHop, that's media speculation. Secondly if it got to that there would be a bidding war, not a good thing for the Bills. IMO, the move needs to be made at/by the draft or the odds drop significantly of the Bills landing him. DHop has indicated he is willing to go to the Bills. So the Bills should be able to know what kind of cap room/salary will be needed to pull it off. That discussion should have already taken place. Then the deal depends on what it will take from AZ to let him go. Maybe something like the Bills have offered a 4th but AZ is holding firm at a 3rd. So the Bills will wait to see if Addison is within striking range of the Bills 1st and 3rd. If the Bills can't get him, like Addison goes #17, then the Bills relinquish and pony up the 3rd.

I agree the deliberately misleading headlines are annoying. Had one in this forum and the admins took care of it. I do however love looking at the mocks put out by the various sites. I wish the forum had a running tab of these, and this is different than the ones done by posters in simulators. Like the Kiper one. For instance, this morning's CBS one by Chris Trapasso had the Bills move down to #29 from the Saints and take the man Jack Campbell. In this one Addison went #17, Q Johnston went #22, at #27 went D Kincaid, and after the Bills pick at #30 went D Wright. Second round Bills took the TE S Laporta, pick 71 (from Saints) took Colby Wooden DL, and pick 91 took Warren McClendon OT.

I understand his point. What I am saying is his method of trying to prove it is flawed. We all agree that Beane's best is substantially better than the others best. Give Beane credit for winning the besties, but then take them all out. You can look at what else was done but to compare it to the others you need to take out their best too. It can be like saying an RB's good ypc was inflated because of an outlier 90 yd run so you're going to take it out. And you compare it to another RB while you let them keep their 65 yarder.

C'mon we should know by now Von going to say Von things, attention is for all name players these days. McAfee though wants to look connected. He wants to hit. He only said offensive weapon. So what about Tampa, is M Evans a possibility again? They signed Godwin to $20M/yr and Gage to $10M/yr. Adding in Evans that's a lot of WR money. M Evans comes in at around $14,5M. A little restructure here, add another year there, spice it up with a guarantee and a signing bonus and Beane could probably do it without even having to move Oliver. What's Tampa want for him? Gotta let AZ know there's a little competition. Could be sending a message, the Bills have options.

But shouldn't even an Allen-less comparison have the other GM's subtracting their best player? Beane wins "best player award", and then compare the rest of the field.

Also with 1st rounders it seems easier to negotiate in year 3 for an extended market deal - like Josh did. So even players you might not think have a first round grade get this advantage. Like Jack Campbell or maybe D Washington, if they fit the team and look improving you lock them up early. And when you have a nice core of early extended players you get to do more cap maneuvering in later years. On the flip side it further makes RBs a tougher selection. If you don't want old RBs and have no intention of extending it is a negative. Because 1st round RBs are starting to sit out their Franchise years - Zeke/L Bell. I do not want an RB in the first round.

I think the plan would probably entail moving Oliver which opens up $10M. Also restructure DHop contract-which is done by extending the years of the contract (but they get more upfront - signing bonus and guarantees - thanks Terry). Giving up Edmunds and Oliver and then picking DHop makes it a long shot that the Bills would go offense early in the draft. But we can hope.