Einstein's Dog

I have not given up hope on a trade for a veteran WR. That would move the needle, much like Von did last year. The majority of the funds would come from doing something with Oliver. And there would be much rejoicing. When they didn't extend Oliver early, he became "iffy" in my mind. My best case scenario is still alive. I wish ErieCountyBulls would confirm it so everyone else could be happy.

Please don't encourage whorlnut's conspiracy theories, it already looks like he's going to lose it if we trade up and draft Jack Campbell. Yes, the players can have some input. Just like what was reported to help Dorsey get the job. And last year when the offense sputtered the veteran players did not say "let's get the rookies more involved". No, they went out and brought back Smoke and Beas. What the FO is doing to help the offense is moving monetary resources over from defense to more investment in offense. Seems like they were prepared to let Poyer walk, until they got an unexpected bargain, let Edmunds go, and Oliver is iffy. The FO already did some OL upgrades, and tweaking to the WR group. All big move talk has centered on name WRs (Dhop, OBJ) in contrast to last year when it centered on pass rushers.

Don't worry about the intelligence of the coaching staff, the GM is smart enough not to put them in that bind. The FO already bought a Hyatt clone for a third less of the price, so not happening. A TE2 to replace Morris, complete luxury pick, not happening (at least not in the 1st round).

The idea of drafting a WR or TE2 is exciting. It means the FO sees a huge talent. But IMO it is unlikely. From a financial perspective, picking at 27 is around a $2.5M spot. We just picked up someone comparable to J Hyatt for under $2M, we had someone on our practice squad sniped on us comparable to Q Johnson - Hodgins. Our TE2's have salaries under $3M - even OJ Howard. Or the Bills can take what looks like a comparable to the guy that just left us for $18M.

Doc - I understand I have a different viewpoint. But you do have to admit the whole "reach" discussion is based on people's expectations. I can't stop people from losing their mind when the Bills move up to draft Jack Campbell but I can give fair warning. In my mind it makes sense. Beane would be moving up to get ahead of the Giants. It would be especially painful for Beane to be sniped by Shoen/Giants for JC. The threat of the Giants is real - currently their starting lb is someone named Bobby Okereke. Give me a break, that sounds pathetic. The needs writeup says the Giants need an lb, "a run thumper would be perfect". I can understand moving ahead of the Giants.

I don't think the Tremaine experience hurts, 5 years of excellent average cost and a third rounder on the way out.

They say the draft is for the future. And by drafting properly the SB window will still be open 8 years from now - we'll still have J Allen, the main component. Most picks won't factor much in 2023 - IOL, WR, and especially TE would start as backups. Jack Campbell has the quickest path to 2023 relevance of anyone they could take.

There seems to be this echo chamber that you can trade down and get Jack Campbell (JC) Pure conjecture. I believe JC is in a tier of his own at the top of the mlb rankings, and for good reason, he is a decorated, experienced, high IQ, big person with a huge RAS. I believe the FO interest in what it would take to move up is based on getting JC. The offensive weapon rouse was classic Beane. The lb needs of NYG and possibly Dallas (if B Robinson is gone) scare Beane. We've seen the FO get nervous before just last year and I don't think they regret it at all (remember our 4th Balt got went to a punter). Another disadvantage to trading down is the FO would regret not getting JC in the 1st round for the 5 year deal. JC is a great candidate to be extended after year 3 like the smart teams do when they know they have a keeper (see J Allen/D Knox/T White).

If the 5th WR is ranked higher then you take him. I'm telling you I don't think that will be the case. Last year they could have had the WR C Watkins that was an RAS freak that went to GB or G Pickens who went to Pitt. Both better than what I believe they would see this year. And yet, they moved up and got the cb they feared would be picked ahead of them. Beane may be looking at what it takes to move up because of Dallas interest in mlb. For instance if B Robinson is gone (another Dallas rumored target) the threat of Dallas taking an mlb increases. If the FO has a clear top tier favorite (hopefully Campbell) they might want to jump Dallas. It's not so far-fetched since they just did something similar last year.

If Campbell is their man, and he is there, I think they would gladly take him. I think the risk is much more that as the pick gets closer the pressure to move up and get him intensifies. I could see nervousness of the Dallas pick - I've seem mocks with Dallas taking D Sanders. I think the scenario happened last year with cb/Elam.

It's weird to me that the rumor's get so specific. Why put "offensive player" in the supposed rumor? I could see leakage of real phone contacts between Beane and other decision makers on other teams. Others might catch wind of that. But how would that morph into the knowledge that it was for offensive players?

I didn't say it was a reach, I said it was riskier, and it is. Seems hard to argue that the odds of the fifth receiver beating out Gabe and/or Shakir are less than the odds of the top mlb beating out Bernard. Swinging for the fences is in FA or trades - that would be the DHop hope (much like Von last year). The draft is for the future. Jack Campbell would be 3 years of bargain prices and then extended early at market prices.

No, the logic is mlb is much safer. WR's are risky (see K Benjamin, Z Jones). Also the drafted mlb would have greater odds of starting, makes financial sense, and is easy to incorporate into the starting lineup. The Bills could have the top pick at mlb vs the 5th pick at the risky WR position. Of course the Bills could draft a WR, but they probably won't. The conservative, financially sound, safer move, is mlb.

2023 NFL Mock Draft: Seahawks move up to grab eventual Geno Smith replacement; three big mock trades in top 10 - CBSSports.com I guess I didn't get the link, but Tom Fornelli of CBS sports has Campbell going at #27 today. It's the finances that make it so logical. Getting a WR who is WR3 being paid more than Gabe who is starting above him might be a problem Getting an RB making more than our starting 2 ahead of him makes no sense. Getting a TE2 for $3M is a waste. Getting a starting mlb who is very good at $3M/yr for the next 4 years makes a lot of financial sense.

I think you are projecting what you want. They very well could be seeing what it might take to move up to get Campbell. If D Sanders goes off the board at around 21, the FO could get very nervous. This just happened last year with Elam. While a lot of posters would love to see a move to get Q Johnston (myself included) which, by the way, is very different than the cringe worthy prospect of moving up for Bijan Robinson (which would make me violently ill), I don't think the FO would take such a risk. The FO has an excellent opportunity to get a good 4-5 year starting mlb for around $3M/yr. Do it.

Draft strategy changes after having a franchise QB and becoming a contender. The Bills now need early draft picks who will contribute for the next 4-5 years at positions of decent value. Groot, Elam, and now a mlb fit this strategy and are smart moves. It is kind of a safe move in a way to draft the mlb. Seems like they would get their choice of a top tier mlb and would comfortably be able to get him starting by mid-year and use them for at least the next 4.

I agree with most of what you are saying, similar approach to years past. But just last year the FO made the Von move. I was hoping for a veteran WR move but seems like a long shot. As for year over year improvement it may come down to improving existing players, but also can be done with improved coaching. McD can use the players in a more aggressive and less predictable style. Dorsey could get the short swing game to another level (with the improvement of Cook/Shakir/Allen). And Kromer needs to get his act together and get this OL cohesive (I had big expectations that went unfilled last year).

I hope they don't move up - just too costly. My worry is that they may have a limited top tier, like Sanders/Campbell and someone takes one of them ahead of us. This would make Beane very nervous. Something similar happened last year with cb.

I also agree that the mlb can be considered important. I think that guy is Campbell. Sanders looks a little undersized. What is interesting to me is that many think it is okay to draft Sanders but not Campbell in round 1. I think it would be excellent if the FO gets the first choice of mlb's and gets to choose the one they want- looks between Sanders/Campbell/Simpson. To me, it looks obvious that the FO left the $18M vacated slot to be filled by the draft. Yes, this is now a need but it was done by design. By most accounts they will have at least a top 2 choice to choose from to fill the spot.

The CBS/NFL article by Chris Trapasso has Jack Campbell going #27 to the Bills. His write up is "It came down to Campbell or Zay Flowers here for the Bills but Buffalo likes the depth at receiver more than linebacker on Day2" You, along with the GMs, and draftniks, have no idea if a guy is selected 15-20 picks too early. You call it a reach because you didn't think he should be selected there, and thought (with no assurance whatsoever) that he could have been picked 15 spots later. This "monster hole" was by design by the FO when they let the $18M man leave. Looks like they can get their choice of one of the top 2 mlb's and someone (IMO) slightly better, at a fifth of the cost, for 4-5 years.

The reason the FO went with Dorsey was for continuity and consistency. By all accounts this had Allen's approval. By most stats they maintained the offensive output. You can put any OC under a microscope and find ways they can improve - it was certainly that way with Daboll. As for use of personnel, that is tricky. Singletary had timing issues, Cook had a bad case of rookie nerves, Shakir was out of position, McKenzie had terrible drops, and Allen had problems with speed and arc on the short passes. These all contributed to bad chemistry on the short swing passes they seemed to want to incorporate last year. How long do you keep doing something that is struggling.

Your idea of value is based on an estimate of where you think people will be drafted. You think Campbell or Sanders would be a reach in the first because some people feel they wouldn't be drafted until later. They don't know. What we do know is that our last mlb got $18M. If we can replace his production with a draft pick, that seems like excellent value. You seem to feel that Henley or Sewell are at the same level, as Sanders/Campbell. If the FO feels the same, maybe they will wait. I doubt it though. Seems like the FO may have a shot at one of the top 2 and I think they'll take it. As for the OP, taking a top 2 mlb is much more likely to provide a value to our team of over $10M, than any of the WRs available or TEs.

What if Beane/McD like Campbell better? And the quote "the value isn't there for a MLB" gets thrown around a lot. Edmunds just went for $18M/yr. If the FO gets a starter of that quality, it seems like huge value - that's DHop money (and more than any WR2 commanded). Can you see how flawed your "trade up from 59.....if MLB starts moving" quote is? It could very well be too late at that point to get the one they want! lb>WR2>TE2. While a good WR is an enormous asset, getting the 4th or 5th WR entails a lot of risk (see Z Jones, K Benjamin). The smart play is to buy a good WR (DHop) and draft a top 2 lb (Campbell).

"Incompetence" is rather harsh wording. The OL needs to get better, and Saffold was a miss. I was disappointed with Kromer, thought his addition would really show and I didn't see it. As for the DL, when healthy the DL is one of the best the Bills have ever had.

I don't think Beane has tried to build the OL with jags. There has been 1st rounder Dawkins, highest paid Center Morse, 3rd rounder S Brown who had elite level RAS. They also tried 2nd rounder C Ford, and last year spent $6M on Saffold and matched Bates' offer. It may not have worked as planned but I don't think there has been this big intentional area of neglect that people seem to make it out to be.