Einstein's Dog

IMO it is very unlikely to be a meaningless game, in other words this game is going to mean something. While the Bills will likely have the AFCE sewed up, overall seeding will still be in play. Being the one seed is huge. And there is a significant difference in the 2 vs 3 seeds, that would be enough to play for the win. Miami will probably be fighting for their playoff lives. And if not seeding. And it's always nice to end Miami's season. When the schedule came out, the NFLN crew did a run through of the best games of the week - they chose this one for week 18 - was a logical choice.

I see huge possibilities for Kincaid - getting Beasley type targets with near same results. A huge weapon along the Kelce lines. I would love to see when the Bills get a first down with Diggs/Davis/Knox/Kincaid and maybe Harris out there, go to no-huddle. Go power run while the D can't substitute, catch the D with the lightweight extra DBs out there. And I want Kincaid out there getting reps quickly, Jets game even. And I don't want a short leash on him either - none of what happened to J Cook or Shakir. The problem for me with these incredibly optimistic hopes is when they don't happen, I will look for reasons. And I will be looking to Dorsey for answers. He has a different type of chess piece here, I want to see him get Kincaid involved. So when someone says to me that "I need to temper my expectations" I get it. Because I do. if I let my hopes become my expectations i am judging Dorsey by some very lofty, unrealistic, goals.

Expectations that aren't met have consequences. Just look at the people here who want McDemott fired or have Dorsey on the hot seat, both did well but they didn't live up to the expectations of some. When you say "I don't think he'll reach his potential this year", it kind of screams you're in some bizarro world - of course Kincaid won't - he's a rookie TE getting his first look at NFL defenders. And your continuation of the statement with "but his talent will be flashing every week" assumes he will be out there week 1, which is what many of us hope for, but is by no means guaranteed. The problem with your unrealistic expectations is the aftermath when they aren't realized. The most likely result will be your joining the dump Dorsey brigade.

I think Dorsey (along with Kromer) are key to how dominating the Bills can be in 2023. I would like to see Kincaid used right from the start. I would also like to see the RBs used as swing pass outlets, and incorporated more often. But the execution and plays have to work. This idea that if somehow the options above do not work, but something else does, then Dorsey should be fired is ridiculous. Last year we hoped, and tried to incorporate the short outlet swing pass to speedy RB/WRs - drafted Cook, traded for Hines. And yet the short swing pass was off most of the year for a variety of reasons -from McK drops, to Cook/Shakir missed routes, to Singletary not expecting the ball, and also the touch from Josh being off on several - too floated at times and too hot on others. When Dorsey was faced with the choice of the 60% chance of the 20 yard laser vs the 65% chance of the 4 yard swing pass, opting for the broken down scrambled 20 yarder was logical. So no, if Dorsey can't get consistent effective offense out of Cook/Knox/Kincaid it does not mean he gets shown the door. Not if Diggs/Davis and Harris are tearing up the league, producing a top 3 offense.

I'm in the group that thinks it is just a cool name. And now it is starting to get its own brand - the Dalton contributions and the Josh Grandma thing were a great touch. Now the mafia should add the name "DK2 Semi-Automatic" for the new offense. The D Kincaid + D Knox personnel grouping should be able to get Defenses in bad matchups. In those situations Josh should go no-huddle so the D can't substitute. It's like the K Gun but more dangerous. It has the added dimension that a lot of people would hate it.

I go another direction and go with write in candidate James Cook. The outlet pass was meant for last season and is just running a year behind. The Josh/Dorsey/Cook problems should get worked out - Josh's elbow, Cook/Dorsey rookie years. Plus if they have Kincaid run across the middle the swing pass to Cook opens up even more. To be second in targets all Cook needs is about 4 - 5 per game - that would put him well past the 48 targets that were second in 2022 (tied between Davis and Dawson). Cook should get the lion share of Singletary's 38 targets from last year - and Cook had 21 himself.

Actually part of the value of the OP is that people such as yourself should be able to temper expectations without blaming the coaches (and what is with blaming Beane for the rookies playing times?) Look at the OP stats, very very few TEs explode in stats their rookie year. Secondly, traditionally if done right, the draft is supposed to be used for the future. Beane got Dorsey/Josh a great pass catcher to have for at least the next four years.

Don't forget that the order had changed. The Giants traded up for Jax (which by the way I didn't understand). So Dallas may not have had time to negotiate. As for the Giants tradeup, maybe they had orchestrated a prior arrangement to keep the Bills out, and it was activated. As for the OP, yes to the trade up! This one I can understand (as apposed to last years when I didn't think it was necessary). When they did the move up I think most people figured the Bills were now picking a TE, and most people had Kincaid as the top TE.

Looks like the FO did snipe Dallas' pick. Good move there.

Ouch. So close but no go. I wanted Addison. No idea what the Giants are doing.

WR: DHop/M Evans/J Addison/ J Mingo LB: Jack Campbell TE: D Washington RB: late R Johnson Give me a couple of those and I'll be happy.

Tampa...WR?...A guy compared to M Evans?....interesting... My only regret is I didn't set up a burner twitter account and mention I've heard M Evans to the Bills chatter.

How long was the JJ Watt thread? And you know who plays Von in this episode? That would be one Mike Evans of Tampa. Hear me out, Tampa has too much money invested in the WR room, close to $50M in the top 3 alone - M Evans $18M, C Godwin $20M, R Gage $10M. To get them out of that mess and stagger their finances they could go WR at #19 for a top 3 candidate, and move Evans to us. They would also pick up around a 3rd from us to help Tampa get more cheap labor (which they need). Tampa would do this the night of the draft to pretend like it was a WR they couldn't pass up. But that's really just part of the smokescreen to divert the outrage of what would have been moving a fan favorite. Just because we haven't heard anything doesn't mean it's not in play. It's the way Beane operates.

If they get DHop then would you mind Captain Jack? Sure WR is more exciting but if they can cover that, IMO JC would be a good choice. It does seem like T Simpson or D Sanders would fit the coverage lb theory a little better. So McD would have to tweak a little to get this talent in. But no player has the intangibles that Campbell has in terms of old school, no social media, no NIL, captain of team - just screams an easy to root for guy. Currently don't have a player in the back 7 that can lay the lumber. Milano is as close as we come and he isn't quite there, and Simpson and/or Sanders certainly don't qualify. At 6'5" 250, with room to grow Campbell can add an element to the D. McD has alluded to the D being a little soft. By all accounts JC is extremely coachable and will take on the role they want. He has awards for intelligence. And lastly, I think Campbell would be a no mess easy extension candidate after 3 years. A Milano type, fair, borderline team friendly get the deal done, 8 year Bill. Love those type of players.

It happens, just need the contract done prior. So maybe Beane is cooking up the 3 way trade, DHop (and AZ eats $4M of the $19M) for Oliver, and then AZ is trading Oliver to Houston for a 2nd (where Houston has reworked his contract to include an extension). Something like that.

I agree, they may have eyes on Addison but if he doesn't make it within range, then go the DHop route (although I prefer the DHop route). I wonder if they would unleash the Oliver transaction at the same time. I believe the FO would need to move Oliver to make finances work for DHop, even if AZ eats a portion of the $19M. And the available DLs at 27 might make a difference between doing the slide down to 34 method or just giving an outright 3rd rounder.

Now do the failures, the flops, the misses. I want the certainty of DHop over the roll of the dice WR and an overpay on the DL (looking at you Oliver). Many of us (myself included) wanted a redistribution of assets to the offensive side of the ball and the FO has so far been on course (Edmunds gone, hardball on Poyer, Oliver iffy). C'mon Beane bring it home with DHop!!!!

Yeah, that's new to me. Kind of a bummer though, because I was hoping the Bills would be targeting this man-mountain. He has a lot of physical traits that could make him special. Plus seems like he would be amenable to starting out with a large blocking role. But failing Medicals? What happened? Sounds bad.

I thought at one point DHop said he didn't want a raise. I took it to mean that he would accept a trade if the team picked up the remaining $34M in his contract the next two years. I doubt AZ wants to pick up much more on DHop's contract since it looks like the primary motivation to move him is a salary dump as they slightly rebuild. $34M for two years of DHop is a good deal. Look at Spotrac AAV's for WRs - C Kirk $18M, M Williams $20M, DJ Moore $20M, T McLaurin $23M, C Godwin $20M, T Lockett $17M, D Johnson $18M, H Renfrow $16M, and OBJ just hobbled into $15M. And if you restructure into additional years and add some guarantees, a signing bonus, you can play around with the cap hit a bit.

I think for the Bills they might be waiting for the draft. If Addison moves within a predetermined amount, maybe a 3rd or a 4th (+our 27) they go for him. If Addison is gone by then Beane activates his DHop plan, which might be using that 3rd or 4th, plus probably an independent move to do something with Oliver (because of the cap money needed).

You should be excited! Very good chance something is going to happen in regards to WR/TE! I don't want D Wright. Give me J Addison, Q Johnston, or trade for DHop - that's exciting. All possibilities. Even the TEs offer intrigue - D Kincaid big playmaker, D Washington a man mountain that would challenge Dorsey to create some different looks. The odds for the Bills going for a WR/TE early are as high as they have been since the Diggs trade.

You forgot J Addison and Q Johnston. I think those two are extremely likely targets and I would be excited if it happened. I would go so far as to hope if those two are not available the FO would trade down, and that stands even if B Robinson and/or D Kincaid are still on board.

My reasons against taking an RB in the 1st: 1. Finances - the Bills are going with an inexpensive RB room. Taking an RB at 27 is a $2,5M addition, more than Cooks or Harris make now. 2. Offensive philosophy - the Bills have what may arguably be the best 25-30 yard passer in football. I want the offense to be built around that. 3. 5th year option - generally you don't want to be the team that is doing the second contract for an aging RB. Those contracts are expensive and the RB will generally start fading earlier than other positions. Also lately 1st round RBs won't serve their fifth year without a new contract - Zeke/Bell. 4. Opportunity cost - kind of goes with 2 and 3 but taking an RB has you miss out on someone else. For instance I have started coming around to the man mountain D Washington, prefer him over any RB.

I'm with you Alpha - not only that, but the whole fixation on just draft picks misses the point at times. For instance, if the FO gets DHop, this criticism doesn't end. And imagine if to get DHop they move Oliver, and then draft defense first round. True, it's a first round pick for defense but pretty disingenuous to think the FO wasn't focused on increasing the offense this offseason.

I agree, the 14-4 results are hard to argue. That's a good season. But the FO did seem to make a change with Frazier even though he had good results and good D rankings. I don't know if it is reasonable to make such a change just based off of the small sample size of disappointment from playoff losses, so I am hoping it is more than that. I like the change and am hoping it is a sign that they are moving away from what looked to me to be a passive, predictable defense. Also strategically, I never agreed with the bend but don't break strategy we seemed to start with. Going against lesser QBs and giving them the 5-7 yarders didn't make sense to me. The Mac Jones/Tua/Wilson's of the world, live for those - it's the 25 yarders they would be hesitant to take and hard for them to make. But I really couldn't argue with the results, the lesser QBs rarely beat us. Would still like us to change it up.