Einstein's Dog

A couple things. There's no guarantee AZ would release DHop, that's media speculation. Secondly if it got to that there would be a bidding war, not a good thing for the Bills. IMO, the move needs to be made at/by the draft or the odds drop significantly of the Bills landing him. DHop has indicated he is willing to go to the Bills. So the Bills should be able to know what kind of cap room/salary will be needed to pull it off. That discussion should have already taken place. Then the deal depends on what it will take from AZ to let him go. Maybe something like the Bills have offered a 4th but AZ is holding firm at a 3rd. So the Bills will wait to see if Addison is within striking range of the Bills 1st and 3rd. If the Bills can't get him, like Addison goes #17, then the Bills relinquish and pony up the 3rd.

I agree the deliberately misleading headlines are annoying. Had one in this forum and the admins took care of it. I do however love looking at the mocks put out by the various sites. I wish the forum had a running tab of these, and this is different than the ones done by posters in simulators. Like the Kiper one. For instance, this morning's CBS one by Chris Trapasso had the Bills move down to #29 from the Saints and take the man Jack Campbell. In this one Addison went #17, Q Johnston went #22, at #27 went D Kincaid, and after the Bills pick at #30 went D Wright. Second round Bills took the TE S Laporta, pick 71 (from Saints) took Colby Wooden DL, and pick 91 took Warren McClendon OT.

I understand his point. What I am saying is his method of trying to prove it is flawed. We all agree that Beane's best is substantially better than the others best. Give Beane credit for winning the besties, but then take them all out. You can look at what else was done but to compare it to the others you need to take out their best too. It can be like saying an RB's good ypc was inflated because of an outlier 90 yd run so you're going to take it out. And you compare it to another RB while you let them keep their 65 yarder.

C'mon we should know by now Von going to say Von things, attention is for all name players these days. McAfee though wants to look connected. He wants to hit. He only said offensive weapon. So what about Tampa, is M Evans a possibility again? They signed Godwin to $20M/yr and Gage to $10M/yr. Adding in Evans that's a lot of WR money. M Evans comes in at around $14,5M. A little restructure here, add another year there, spice it up with a guarantee and a signing bonus and Beane could probably do it without even having to move Oliver. What's Tampa want for him? Gotta let AZ know there's a little competition. Could be sending a message, the Bills have options.

But shouldn't even an Allen-less comparison have the other GM's subtracting their best player? Beane wins "best player award", and then compare the rest of the field.

Also with 1st rounders it seems easier to negotiate in year 3 for an extended market deal - like Josh did. So even players you might not think have a first round grade get this advantage. Like Jack Campbell or maybe D Washington, if they fit the team and look improving you lock them up early. And when you have a nice core of early extended players you get to do more cap maneuvering in later years. On the flip side it further makes RBs a tougher selection. If you don't want old RBs and have no intention of extending it is a negative. Because 1st round RBs are starting to sit out their Franchise years - Zeke/L Bell. I do not want an RB in the first round.

I think the plan would probably entail moving Oliver which opens up $10M. Also restructure DHop contract-which is done by extending the years of the contract (but they get more upfront - signing bonus and guarantees - thanks Terry). Giving up Edmunds and Oliver and then picking DHop makes it a long shot that the Bills would go offense early in the draft. But we can hope.

Hell no. The unspoken plan has been to divert salaries/cost from the defense to offense. Signing D White would be moving in the opposite direction. The FO let Edmunds go, played hard ball w Poyer, and probably is still contemplating moves with Oliver. They let Frazier leave and have put more emphasis on defensive scheming in the hands of McD, to do more with less. I think/hope if any splash move is to be made, it would be for WR.

I'm hoping the scenario is along the lines of what you're thinking. If possible get Addison, if he makes it into the 20s, maybe what a 3rd would cost for the move up. If not spend the third on DHop. And while I don't think it is reasonable to go DHop and 1st round WR. There could be a small chance the FO could go DHop and one of those good TEs. That would be a great haul.

Yes, to going up for a WR - particularly Addison. A huge NO to moving for B Robinson. A big NO to drafting him at all. If he makes it to 27, some team would want him and we should trade down.

Thanks. Can you tell me when Addison, Q Johnston, and D Washington went. And what were the 3-4 picks after us (the top alternatives). I find it hard to get excited about T Simpson, yes there is a spot for him but it is kind of blah. Much rather get something more offensive and take J Campbell in the second.

In Gunner's mock Addison lasted until the Giants and I think the Bills might give up their 4th to get ahead of the Giants and get Addison. I would be excited. I don't think the Bills would give up a 3rd or more though, like dave mcbride above is suggesting. They could probably get DHop for a 3rd. And I don't think the draft will unfold with Addison available at 24. But I do think there is still a good chance Beane will trade ahead of the Giants. Often times Beane has a player he wants and seems to get nervous/antsy and moves up. This feeling will be increased because it's Beane's students picking just two spots ahead of us.

Moving up 7 spots generally costs a lot though. Moving up two spots last year cost a 4th. I don't think they'll go for much more than that. I like the highlights of Addison but as you allude to I don't think he'll make it to 27. Not with Seattle and Minn along with possibly the Giants.

I posted upstream I think a trade with Jax to get ahead of the Giants is a huge possibility. The common needs of the Bills/Giants and with the Giants having so many ex-Bills on their staff would seem to make it more likely than normal. I used Addison as an example.

For me part of why I like the signing is when they used Klein best it was with an aggressive defense. They sent Klein attacking, either at the RB or at the QB. It hurried the play. I hope to see the defense get more aggressive with McD, and using Klein would be consistent with going in that direction.

Appreciate the effort, enjoy reading. I agree with MrEpsyTown above though. To me, Hyatt looks too similar to the WR additions they already got (Harty/Sherfield). I think the Bills would take their top choice at mlb in this instance, and I believe that to be J Campbell (although I can see reasons to think that may not be the case). I think there is a very good chance of the Bills trading up with Jax for their pick. Getting ahead of the Giants might be wanted for a couple of different reasons. One is the Bills may have a significant tier drop on WRs right after Addison. So if Addison is still there, jumping ahead of the Giants makes sense. The second reason a trade w Jax makes sense is if Addison is gone (along with the expected other WRs). Then once again the Bills may want to jump NYG to get the top mlb (because that is a need for the Giants as well). The Bills could feel that there is a drop off from the top mlb to the next tier and that the NYG have it ranked the same way (and they know the NYG staff enough to have a good feel that they are on the same page in evaluations).

I was hoping the delay had been Beane gave a take it or leave it best offer and AZ is hoping someone comes in and beats it prior to the draft. The problem I have with that thought is I believe in order to afford DHop we would have to move Oliver. And it seems that would be hard to have all lined up.

What? Our average-ish starting RB just got $3.5M while our average-ish starting LB just got $18.5M

Small sample size. But WR would be exciting, means the FO has identified a fit. And while not much focus on LB it seems a glaring need. To the OP, my DO NOT DRAFT is B Robinson. No RB in the first for me please. Maybe round 4 that R Johnson.

Right, we are all saying RAS is one metric. There are expectations you can get for a player from watching their tape. In Campbell's case it looks like his RAS exceeded people's expectations. So there are several ways you could reconcile the difference. You could theorize Campbell improved his agility and quickness, or say the coaching and scheming didn't take advantage of all his attributes, or think maybe Campbell had been tentative, or you can put Campbell into the group who somehow had more and better RAS training (like he gamed the system). When GB says "my guess is he did some serious combine training.....but I think that probably slightly overstates what kind of athlete you will get" we see how he is coming to terms with the unexpected difference. He claims that he isn't discounting JC's results, but you be the judge. Furthermore, as you mention, it's a relative score. So the implication is that the mid-western, 4 yr, no-nonsense player from Iowa received more and better training than the likes of the transferring, showboating, me-first, SEC type players.

They really aren't much better than ErieCountyBulls. Ian Rappaport gives some kind of insider presence but his quotes contain the qualifiers "it's likely not going to be". Well, no kidding, they just spent for Lazard, and trying for Rogers, and drafted a WR in round 1 last year.

Thanks for the information. Would like to know who McD would prefer. Seems if he wants a more aggressive blitzing type Sanders/Simpson have done it better. Wonder how much the intangibles play a factor. Campbell screams old school football - 4yr player, captain, excellent academics, no social media, no NIL, incredible work ethic. Comes across as no-nonsense, football focused. Easy to see him willing to extend after 3 years to a team friendly, Milano type contract.

What? Some fans think Jack Campbell would be an excellent choice. Why is Jack Campbell (JC) bad value at #27 and D Sanders is not, if the Bills have Campbell rated higher? Many mocks have Sanders going before our pick, and GB above ranks Simpson at #16. I could see Beane valuing JC at $4M on a one year deal if he were a free agent, certainly above the slotted $2.5M they would pay. That's immediate value. Outside of the top 3 WRs, they are not worth over $2.5M for the year, you are paying on the hope of rise in future value (and JC's value would rise also). I've suggested that Jack Campbell may have separated himself as the top candidate with the combine. I've tried my best to give forewarning to the board that if Beane sees it way, not only would JC be the first pick, Beane might move up to do it.

I understand taking the tape over the combine. You went further than that though and started to discount Campbells combine. The larger point though is, I believe your ranking does not match the Bills (and probably not the Giants either). And I'm starting to think the gulf between Campbell and the next rated mlb could be significant. So much so that if things break in a somewhat expected way, (like top 3 WRs gone and top OL gone and all 3 mlbs available) at #22, the Bills would be tempted to jump the Giants. Most of the board would not like it, but I can see it.

I get it, you didn't see it on tape. You didn't expect good results from Campbell. And when confronted with the good results you make excuses for them to discount the data point and keep your preconceived bias. You didn't see twitch and assumed Campbell was slow, you didn't see change of direction and assumed Campbell had poor lateral movements. Combine results show your conclusions were wrong. Most of the field is training for the combine. So yes, it is a diss when you imply that Campbell's numbers are somehow less meaningful. Often times the RAS can be used as a negative. It can be used as indicator that a prospect doesn't have the requisite physical attributes to succeed, such as speed or agility. Clearly these limitations are not applicable to Campbell. It doesn't matter if he trained, he can do it.