Einstein's Dog

It's finally over. I was having DHop fatigue. The longer it went on the less my enthusiasm. Started to look prima donna-ish, and news of poor practice habits didn't set well. M Evans has become my top hope. Should be able to get him after the Bills/Tampa game on 10/26 right before the 11/1 trade deadline. Tampa should be about 2-5 at that point. Should be able to acquire him at a more reasonable price.

To get an upgrade in the $10M budget range it looks like the Bills FO may need to wait for an in-season move. If a team starts poorly and goes into rebuild mode then a trade is possible. Candidates include: my favorite M Evans (root for Tampa to lose early), Jeudy, M Thomas, one of the Raiders WRs Renfro. Maybe A Thielen - although he just signed. T Lockett is another.

But it doesn't have to be DHop or nothing. The plan may still be to possibly put another $10M into the WR2 if necessary. The draft is generally for the future while FA is for the present.

What if Beane has a $10M budget in mind? Looks like that's not going to cut it for DHop. M Evans is on his last year of a contract that is for $13M, so after a third of the season and putting in a third round pick- the finances of Evans are looking better than DHop. Jeudy is cheap, at least this year, still on his rookie deal. M Thomas signed for $10M for the year, if New Orleans is out of it early, they would want that expense off the books- which would be a third less at that point, and probably wouldn't take much draft capital.

I disagree with going for another DL. Our Defense is set, and if healthy McD has enough talent for it to be one of the best in the league. Available money should go to the offense, in particular I am concerned with the WR2. First option is DHop at the figure Beane has already floated out there. I don't think that will get it done, at betonline the odds moved significantly towards Tenn today. If that doesn't work I think they ride it out for the first few weeks with Gabe. And then make a move. Odds are one of the NFC South teams will tank. Then Tampa - M Evans, Carolina - A Thielen, or New Orleans - M Thomas, should be in play. In the AFC West either the Raiders - D Adams/Renfro, or Denver - Jeudy might come available.

First off, it is your opinion that Beane has a "misevaluation of a player's value", but Beane's opinion seems to be holding up better than yours. Hopkins has not hit the OBJ lotto. No, we don't believe Beane when he says the player is only available if he accepts a discount, that is GM speak. He has a value in mind and doesn't want to overspend. Past overspends aren't really relevant (and Beane did pick up J Brown/E Sanders/Beas in the past).

I think you need to get over that, it's just GM speak for they have a set figure/budget in mind and aren't going to move much from the figure. The GM is hoping that the Bills being contenders is worth something to the player and factors into the decision to push them to us. The player is not insulted - that's made up by your frustration of Beane not breaking the bank for DHop. DHop will use the same logic if the business decision he makes favors the Bills - DHop will claim it's his competitive nature and drive for the title - blah, blah, blah. When in reality the business decision came down to even though the Bills offered slightly less, DHop's mid to long term finances would benefit more by going with the Bills. Beane's public attitude to me, screams "take it or leave it." And it looks like some of our fans are having difficulty accepting it. It would seem logical Beane has a backup plan. It looks to me like that might be to give Davis another 4-6 week trial, if he doesn't show improvement then make a move. Some teams will be looking for draft capital - like maybe Tampa (M Evans), Rams (Kupp), Raiders (Adams), Denver (Jeudy). We have the extra third from Edmunds and the cost will be slightly reduced (a third of the way through the season) and controlled (due to putting it together prior to a trade).

I'm starting to get some DHop fatigue. The odds the Bills get him have diminished with what looks to be the increased emphasis on money, and the reports of his poor practice habits. I'll have to revisit the Mike Evans thread because he is becoming just about as realistic at this point. Tampa starts out at around 1 and 3 (very possible) and can then ship out Evans under the rebuild philosophy (that they don't want to admit to yet). Evans has a reasonable salary of $13M, and a quarter of that would be gone by then. The Bills could negotiate a nice 2-3 yr deal that is cap manageable, all for the 3rd rounder we got for Edmunds leaving.

Tampa starts out 2 and 4 and trades Mike Evans to the Bills.

Except it DOES. You need to connect the dots. Beas said “huddle presence can’t be taught “. Beas was very impressed that Stroud was said to be higher than Dak. And Dak was the best in Beas’ opinion. Thus Stroud > Dak > Josh. And Josh can’t do anything to improve it (ridiculous). So this is really a sly two for one insult fest, the rookie Stroud is better than Josh, and Josh will never have it.

No, I didn't say there was nothing to criticize. What I was saying was the "blame" is not there to non-Bills fans. Furthermore, I was saying that your characterization of his hiring as a "mistake" by higher level, looks like a biased attempt to blame McD/Beane for something that hasn't happened yet. Not only has it not happened, but the plan is right on schedule.

What "blame"? By almost all metrics, the Bills offense did well. Generally the criticisms are coming from Bills fans who micromanage the game from their sofas. Compared to the rest of the league the Bills offense was well above average, top 3 even. And what 'mistake"? The higher level people were looking for continuity to have a contender in 2022 and a developing OC for the future. Nothing to apologize for there, they are right on track so far. Often times it looks like to me, that people like to use manufactured blame on Dorsey as a way to criticize upper management (who they were looking to find fault with).

I don't understand your thinking, the NFL History part. Here are some of the recent WR combos: LA - Kupp + Woods, Tampa Godwin + Evans (+Gronk), KC - Kelce + Hill. That's 3 out of the last 4 titles have gone to teams with WR1+2 combos that are 1A/1B, and better than the current Bills. I agree on paper it looks to me like the lower level depth has been improved. That's really not a ton to work with though because those players are the replacements for McKenzie and Crowder who really didn't get much work. I'm in the group who would like to see an upgrade in WR2 (G Davis). It's a long shot now and probably not happening. DHop looks like he is going to the hjghest bidder which won't be the Bills. If Gabe doesn't improve maybe an in-season trade will be looked at, if some team like Tampa or the Raiders stink - then M Evans or H Renfrow could be possibilities.

How does Dorsey have more than these: J Chase/Higgins/Boyd K Allen/M Williams/ (Q Johnson)/A Ekeler D Adams/H Renfrow/J Meyers Hill/Waddle I know you said when Allen is factored in, but that is accounting for a large factor because the Bills WRs aren't on those levels. Many of us wanted an upgrade of WR so that Dorsey would have an advantage.

I'm on record as saying I thought that unexpected, surprisingly good, start to last season would come back to hurt Daboll/Shoen. They didn't get to do their rebuild. They didn't move Barkley prior to the trade deadline last year - which I think was probably their original plan, because they were at least tied for the lead. Now they've extended D Jones and are in the "pay the RB" club. That's not where you want to be. They look like 3rd place finishers in their division for the next few years.

That's an incredibly poor way to even consider evaluating RBs. The 81 yarder was considerably better than someone elses' 30 yarder that doesn't score. I don't see the reasoning in taking an exceptional result and making it count the same as "really good but also a pretty common result". My adjusted metric would be for an RB to get an aypc (Adjusted Yard Per Carry) that doesn't count TDs or 1st downs unless they are over his average, A typical stat line would then say the RB had 25 attempts for 100 yds, 2 TDs, 7FDs (First Downs) and an aypc of 5.3. This way you are not negatively impacting an RB for getting the tough 1-2 yard 1st down or TD. Singletary's ypc looked good, but one factor was the Bills wouldn't even give it to him when they needed two yards.

I think you have your years wrong. I see it as Evans signed the $82M contract in 2018, he is due $13M in base salary this year, his last year of that contract. Godwin signed a $60M, 3 yr contract in 2022 and Gage signed a $30M, 3 yr contract in 2022. Tampa has a WR salary problem brewing. This wouldn't be tanking from Tampa, just managing a problem situation. But it's a tough sell to the fan base.

The point is, given a choice, Evans would probably want to play the next 2-3 years in Buffalo over Tampa. And if Tampa had a rebuilding mind-set they would probably want to get something for Evans now if they could - because he probably is not in their long term plans. A couple of problems though. Tampa's division stinks so the Bucs might want to have their fans think they have a shot at the division title. Moving Evans, a fan favorite, prior to the season would give off a tank like vibe.

Now you're begrudgingly starting to see the light, remember you started with "lol....the 20-teens HOF??" At the 10 year mark, Evans credentials are above both DHop and Diggs, Evans is on track for the HOF. Mike Evans has gone over 1,000 yards each of the 10 seasons he has been in the league, that is rare company already. If he makes it to 15 in a row he probably will be the only one (Jerry Rice didn't, I Bruce didn't, I didn't check them all). The reason I said he was a potential HOFer was twofold. First, to indicate that M Evans is good. Evans would upgrade our roster in a significant way. Secondly as a potential HOFer the Bills situation could be appealing to him to obtain the statistics he needs to secure the bid. Evans is not more likely to get 1000 yard seasons in Tampa than Buffalo. Tampa is a dumpster fire, their OL is terrible, there is competition in the WR room, and worst of all, their QB in none other than "WR killer" Mayfield (just ask OBJ). In Buffalo as WR2, Evans would easily surpass the 1,000 yard mark (it's 17 games now).

A reason Tampa might move Evans now is because the deal presented to them by the Bills might have a limited time frame on it. The Bills might want Evans in from the beginning of the season. Or the Bills are floating out an offer before they up their offer to DHop. Tampa might want to move him now because Evans is not in their long term plans. Tampa already has too much invested in the WR group and will not be able to offer an aging veteran the market rate he deserves. Generally, the longer you wait, the less you get. The realization that Tampa is going to stink may have been confirmed to them through the OTA performance But now you are able to see that Evans is a potential HOFer right? Stats are right up there, if not slightly better than, those of DHop and Diggs.

Now you're starting to see just how special the career Evans has been putting together. HOF worthy start. So you think the Bills have too many weapons. Remember when Tampa had Godwin/Evans/Gage/and Gronk (with Brate backup). Evans still got his 1k. The Bills would have Diggs/Evans/Davis/and Knox (with Kincaid backup). Evans would get his 1k.

It's yards, not targets, that are the driving stat. While in 10-15 years 15k yardage alone may not be enough. The short elevator pitch of over 15k yards, and over 10 (at least) straight 1,000 yard seasons, and a ring (at least one), will do it. It's not like they will have too many of those where they have to weed them out - DHop won't have that, Diggs will be fighting for it.

I disagree, Evans makes it to 15k yards and he is a lock. Evans already has a signature calling card - over 10 years (every year in the league), over 1,000 yards each year. Not many, if any, WRs can say that. For HOF purposes, continuing that impressive 1,000 yard streak and hitting 15k total should be the prime considerations.

Evans does not need to be WR1 to get 1,000 in Buff. Gabe Davis had over 800 for us last year. Evans has had over 1,000 every season he has been in the league. Since Evans already has a ring, getting close to 15,000 makes him a HOFer, just look at Isaac Bruces resume. Admit it Mr WEO, M Evans a potential HOFer.

Evans has over 10k yards already. If he gets over 15k he's a lock. Three to four years in Buff he gets that yardage and maybe another ring.