Old Coot

More details on possible ways to break down Bills' execution: Twists & stunts by DL; blitz/ fake blitz, particularly showing double A gap blitz and then back out or run the blitz. This stresses the Bills' interior OL which is not the beast If NE can confuse our OL as other teams have done we are in for a long day.

I did not say that. It's more complex than that. It all depends on why a strategy did not work. In the second game the Bills out-executed the Pats.

Yes but that doesn't mean its a bad strategy. The Bills responded after each Pats score. You can bet that Belichick will scheme to break down the Bills' execution (assuming we don't do that ourselves). We have the better tean. WE just need to go out & show that.

If I were Belichick here's what I'd do: 1. On Defense: Take away the intermediate to long ball and force the Bills into runs & short completions> The idea is to make the Bills consistently execute the ball down the field. Consistent execution has been a weakness of our offense. Mix in a few well-timed blitzes. Change up coverages every series to confuse Josh. 2. On offense: Establish a running game so Jones can get his play-action passing game working. Mix in a few deep balls to keep the defense honest.

I think the basis of decision-making must be heuristics; that is, relying on rules of thumb based on experience. That said, analytics should inform heuristics. Take for example, the 4th & short decision from your own end of the field. Maybe the analytics say there's an 80% chance of success. But you need to dig deeper. What factors led to the 80% success rate & what factors account for the 20% failure rate. Further, waht is your own team's experience with short yardage pickups. I would not expect the Bills to have an 80% chance of success on 4th & short & I don't think they have. Why? Their OL. My 2 cents

oops. Guess I need new glasses. I didn't see the date on the article

ESPN is reporting that he agreed to a 3 yr $30 mil deal with the Dolphins

The flanker or flankerback was originally a halfback motioned out or set out to the flank of the T formation. He was the receiver off the LOS. On the other side, the end split out to the flank was the "split end." The other end tight to the tackle was the "tight end." Clark Shaughnessy is usually credited with the innovation of motioning out the halfback. Note that Shaughnessy did not invent the concept of man in motion but maximized its effectiveness. Shaughnessy was one of the greatest innovators in the game of football. I'll end with a question: why are offensive tackles called tackles? They don't tackle anyone.

There must be a reason they run shotgun so much. It gives Josh more time to read the D. Under center the QB must turn his back to the D to get to his throwing spot. Also shotgun enables Josh to see a free rusher more easily.

Probably film study by the DB. As far as I can remember when Josh looks to dump off its never a fake so the DB knows that as soon as Josh looks to dump off he can come up on the RB.

That's a difficult play for any LB to make. Edmunds is the MLB and he has no outside help -- the LB on that side Milano blitzes. Looks like the DB who normally would cover the receiver doubles one of the receivers to the other side. The receiver crosses behind Edmunds. At no point does Edmunds have a shot at making the tackle -- he's behind the receiver, who is faster than him. A good play call against our D. The blitz didn't get to Brady in time.

Excellent post. You obviously know your X's & O's. I have a question for you about Josh's ball placement on his dump off passes to RBs. First the content: Josh throws behind the RB forcing him to turn his back to the D to receive the ball. This allows the D to rally to the RB and the result is that the play gains minimal yardage. When I see similar plays executed by other teams the gain often is 5-7 yards. Here's the question: are QBs coached to lace the throw behind the RB or is that just Josh?

This game is reminisent of last year's Superbowl. TB blitzed the daylights out of Mahomes. Same here. The difference? KC was down two starting tackles.

How many other QBs call their own plays? This is not a loaded question; it's purely informational.

This is a difficult question but rests I think on the OL & that's not real repairable at this point in the season -- maybe better O line coaching? Teams take away our long ball and force us to beat them underneath but that requires us to "matriculate" the ball downfield. To do that the team needs consistently to excute and it doesn't do that. It all starts with the OL: penalties, inability consistently to run the ball (which is mostly the fault of the OL -- RBs can't run through holes that aren't there). Inability to run the ball means the DL can focus on rushing the passer which leads to occasional breakdowns in pass protection and that causes our drives to fall short. Lastly I raise a question about Josh's ball placement on his short passes to the flat. He tends to throw behind the receiver who then must turn his back to the D to make the reception. This gives the D more time to recover & limit the yardage. Are QBs taught to throw behind the receiver on these plays or is this just Josh?

I agree that our D played well against the run except on two occasions: 1. The 62 yard TD run 2. The Pats 14 play drive at the end of the 3d quarter. This not only gave them 3 points (at the beginning of the 4th quarter) but denied our offense a chance to play with the wind at the end of the quarter. Both of these lapses were crucial (though not the only significant cause) of our loss.

Bills might need to change their system in which Josh makes the Oline calls to go no huddle. In the Kelly no-huddle Kent Hull the center made the Oline calls.

Belichick will have his team ready to play and will likely use some pressure to rattle Josh. We better show up for this game. Our execution will need to be almost flawless

Last year the O was successful because it got many explosive plays. This year teams are playing us with 2 deep safeties to limit explosive plays. By taking away the deep and some intermediate throws Bills are forced to reply on short passes and the occasional run to work downfield. That can take 10-12 plays to score. To do that you need to execute consistently and the Bills are not close to doing that. On many plays there is poor execution from the OL to the WRs dropping balls forcing a punt.

Time to put a cork in this one, put it on the shelf & forget about it. It's on to New Orleans

I thought Warner's analysis of each play was good. BUT he's looking at an overhead all-22 view & likely takes more than 3 secs to devise his analysis. It's very different on field. That said I think Josh does hold on to the ball too long. I've wondered why other teams often get 5 yards on a safety valve pass to the flat while we get only 1-2 yards. It may be that Josh holds the ball too long, lofts the ball too high or doesn't place the ball well. On a related note, do the Bills run many timed passing routes? WR takes a predetermined no. of steps, turns and the balls right there. If not, why not?

I think that what Josh may mean is that it's his job to select the best play from the 2-3 choices dialed in from the sideline between each play.

I tend to agree with what has been said about about the backside LG & LT. The OL can't allow penetration on the backside. The outside zone is designed to get the DL moving laterally one way. The RB starts in that direction & then cuts back away from the DL movement. In the clip the Jags Rt DT is lined up in a 3 technique (outside LG's shoulder) and penetrates almost untouched. The LG should have chipped him to enable Dawkins to get a piece of the DT and drive him to the left of the screen so Singletary could cut back screen right. A good example of poor OL play on our part. As for Singletary, he doesn't have anywhere to run on this play.

Cover 1 does a very good job of analyzing why our offense was held scoreless for almost 3 quarters. The primary reason was the OL performance. On too many plays they weren't able to handle the rush. That rush was well designed: show 5-6 guys on the D line & then have one not rush while another rushed from the opposite side. The OL also had problems with stunts & bull rushes up the middle. When Josh had a clean pocket or was able to escape the pocket he was able to complete throws. The problem with an offense that steadily moves down the field is that you need to be able to make plays consistently. The Bills' OL wasn't able to do that Once the defense gets into the QB's head bad things happen. Even the GOAT Brady gets rattled if you get in his face. We better prepare for what the Jags did on D because we'll be seeing a lot of it as the season progresses. Oh well. On to the Jets. Let's hope this loss sobers up the offense

Last year when out power running game didn't work Dabol went with a Zone blocking scheme that was more successful.