VW82

Allen is trending. Lions suck. I'm expecting a huge day from Josh.

I like Dwayne Haskins better than both. That guy is going to be a really good pro.

I agree with Barnwell re Allen. He's not accurate, every stat backs that up even when you account for drops and throwaways, and these explosive runs can't last if we expect to keep Josh on the field. None of this is to say he can't get better. As an aside, this part was a little unnerving, "His deep balls have been scattershot at best; on throws 16 or more yards downfield, his passer rating is 36.2, which is nearly 20 points worse than any other qualifying passer. His Total QBR on those throws is also last in the league."

I messed this up too. After looking at it again, I agree with Waldman. The pass was a little low forcing Forster to break off his route and slide down for the ball but the throw also traveled 30 yards in the air. It was a pretty impressive throw. We were lucky it wasn't picked though.

It's so obvious he put in time in the film room while he was off. His feel for the rush is night and day. Out of all those throws I detailed vs. Jets there was only one where he took off prematurely. Josh deserves all the credit for that. Remember the Packers game? This is a different player. We can talk about accuracy all we want, but one of the reasons he has the opportunity to throw more now is because of his improved feel and understanding of the rush and wr routes, and making plays when things break down to keep us on the field longer.

Because it's fine alongside other quantitative evidence. It's not like just because I don't always think ESPN QBR matches the eye test that means it's useless. They're the ones actually compiling real data and analyzing it. It's worth something alongside traditional QB rating, raw completion percentage, and the type of analysis I did. None of them are perfect, but all have value. Interesting that all four say he isn't accurate / good at passing for whatever reason. It's only when you consider what he's doing running the ball where he performs well on the whole.

Yeah I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one stats. That said, I think stats like QB rating and ESPN's QBR can be appropriately used to form part of the quantitative side of the argument.

I was going to put the throws into a chart but sadly the post got so long I decided against it, and I thought it was more important to write out the description of each throw so people could go watch the play and have an opportunity to debate what happened.

Allen does rank 19th in Total QBR once you adjust for his rushing. He's dead last if you isolate his passing plays, and that's taking into account drops, throwaways, type of throws, etc. I'm generally not a fan of all-in-one statistics because they're overly ambitious and just not a good way to make an argument in isolation. That's one of the reasons why I went through an entire game's worth of throws to help present better evidence.

I edited my other post to provide a link to ESPN's QBR page if you want to see a passing stat that's more all encompassing than just QB rating (i.e. adjusts for throwaways, drops, types of throws, etc.). Of course I want the guy to improve! Hah. Nothing would make me happier than to have Allen leading us to the playoffs every year. I certainly have nothing against the guy, just that I think he's inaccurate and I want to see the Bills win. Anyone actively cheering against the guy isn't a real Bills fan.

RE the bolded part, I promise you can't quote me on here saying any of that because I never have and don't believe it to be true. I've said repeatedly that Allen is inaccurate. I've never said he can't improve. Clearly he's improved a lot since week one. His pre-snap recognition and feel for the rush is night and day pre vs.post injury (which has helped him keep more plays alive and be more accurate). RE adjusted completion percentages and other variables, sure, just make sure you're applying all these adjustments across the board, and not just for Allen. You're saying prove to me that other QBs have the same rate of drops, throwaways, etc. How about you prove they don't. I don't have that info. What I can say is Allen is starting WAY behind the eight ball in terms of raw completion percentage. Like I said, I'd be surprised if he moved up much from the bottom of the pack if all these accuracy adjustments were applied across the board to every passer, and I'm assuming he does have a higher rate of drops/throwaways/etc. than other QBs. It's just not astronomically higher like many suggest. I agree he's a very unique QB who has exceptional talent. That talent is what gives me hope that he'll figure it out. Edit: I mentioned this in another thread but you should check out Total QBR on ESPN. That stat attempts to adjust for things like drops, throwaways, field, score and time of game, etc. If you isolate it for just the passing side of QB play it provides a pretty all encompassing statistical overview of where Allen stands. Also, notice what happens when you sort it to include runs - he goes from dead last to 19th in the league. http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/cwepaPassesCondensed

Obviously I disagree with Brady (see my post detailing his throws vs. Jets). Accounting for drops and throwaways (not just for Josh but all QBs) doesn't move him from bottom of the NFL to middle of the pack. He's still near the bottom. Nice try though. Consider ESPN's Total QBR which adjusts for all this stuff still rates Allen as the worst passer in the NFL on the year. What I will say in his defense is he makes star plays, both running and throwing. I don't know this, but I bet he has a higher rate of making big time throws than most QBs. Some of the passes he makes are just spectacular. Surely someone that gifted will figure it out, right?

Thanks to everyone who replied. Here is my consolidated response: 1. The Clay drop: looks like I missed that one. If you add everything up qbq I'm one throw short, so looks like that was the only one. I remember the play but I've now deleted the game from PVR. Does anyone have time and quarter so I can belatedly add it? 2. The Clay drop doesn't impact anything. I wasn't measuring drops or big time throws. I wasn't measuring accuracy vs. precision. I was measuring rate of bad/inaccurate throws. The pbp is up there for you to analyze whatever you want. Just remember to add the Clay drop To Oldmanfan, thanks for actually going through the throws. We disagree on some of them. I suppose one could say you're the pro-Allen view (5 bad throws) and I'm the anti-Allen view (7 bad throws) and take the middle number. To your point about what 20% means, and doing the same analysis for other QBs...sure. We need to do it for every QB to properly rate Allen. Not going to happen. What I'd say is look at his completion percentage. Even if you adjust for drops I'm guessing he's near or at the bottom of the NFL on the year. Re precision vs. accuracy, completion percentage is a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. If you look at some his misses (over shoots DiMarco vs. under shoots Ivory, high on both Clay and Mckenzie over the middle, throws behind Foster down the sideline, behind Zay on that crazy pass attempt while running OB to start second half, in front of Thompson crossing where he dove forward and couldn't come up with it) it seems clear he's all over the place. His precision is poor. If you feel like the combination of his completion percentage on the year vs. other players combined with this type of analysis (even though it's only for him and only one game) doesn't at least provide some initial (albeit incomplete) evidence to suggest he's both inaccurate and not precise...I don't know what to tell you. I wish NFL would do a better job with publicly available stats. Also, there are four possibilities when Allen makes a throw: 1. good decision and inaccurate; 2. good decision and accurate; 3. poor decision and inaccurate; 4. poor decision and accurate. You seem to be suggesting that once Allen makes a bad decision that means he was accurate. You don't know that. I would argue that miss to Zay in the 3rd where he scrambled early was both a bad decision and inaccurate. He threw way behind Zay with the ball landing near Jets defenders. He's not throwing it away there. He's trying to complete a pass.

Fair points. It's possible Allen is more accurate than Darnold (and Rosen for that matter). Those three are all at the bottom of the list in completion percentage. Dilfer played in a different era. Are we really comparing Allen to Flacco or Wilson? Allen's completion percentage this year is 52.4%. Wilson is at 66.6% and has always been in the 60s despite having perennial poor protection. Goff's completion percentage is 64.4%. You don't climb 12-14 percentage points just from better protection and better receivers. It happens because you start throwing more accurately. Goff improved. That doesn't mean Allen will (or won't). So yes, all QBs have misses, and you can probably find a bunch of games that were just like Allen's yesterday in terms of number or percentage of bad throws, but it's tough to find anyone who's made more of them on the year and that's born out in the completion stats.

I find it interesting that despite going into painstaking detail about each throw no one who disagrees will say which interpretation they disagree with and why. The whole point of doing this was to talk specifics about Allen instead of generalizations.

Great question. I didn't see any obvious miscommunications this week between QB and WR, at least not once the ball was thrown. I get that the tone of the post seems slanted against Allen but I really tried to give him the benefit of the doubt on a bunch of the bad throws (like not including the DiMarco throw for example, which was a straight miss by Josh). If you doubt the work so much go watch the plays. It's why I put the time and quarter in so people could find them and debate if they wanted.

Allen did a lot of things on the field yesterday but I want to only look at the throws he attempted so we can better understand what's actually happening, and specifically his propensity for throwing bad passes. For the record, I understand this isn't fair to him. Josh makes plays with his legs, and extends plays other QBs don't. That's all fine and good. This is about what happens when he throws the ball, and trying to better understand the reasons behind his accuracy issues (i.e. is it on him, his receivers, his line, etc.?). 1st quarter: 14:48 - quick out to Zay Jones on target (penalty Dawkins) 1/1 14:30 - connects on a nice curl with McKenzie for 18 yards 2/2 12:40 - play action but no one's open. Josh buys time scrambling right and throws it away. 2/3 11:48 - screen to McCoy. Josh throws it a little before he's ready and McCoy drops it. 2/4 11:00 - dump off to Murphy after a blitz on 3rd and 7. First down. 3/5 3:28 - play action dump off to Thomas for 5 yards. 4/6 2:40 - read option, quick out to Zay for 5 yards and a first. 5/7 2:05 - play action quick dump off to Dimarco. Pass was inaccurate and falls incomplete. 5/8 2:00 - quick slant to Clay over the middle for 6 yards. 6/9 1:15 - Allen draws Jets offside with the hard count, takes a shot and misses but draws the flag. 6/9 Summary: 6/9 completed passes, only one inaccurate throw and it happened when Allen was under duress. 2nd quarter: 5:41 - Josh has tons of time but throws over Clay's head incomplete (penalty Jets - as an aside, I watched this play multiple times and Clay doesn't make that catch even if he isn't held. The throw was too high.) 5:36 - quick throw to the left behind the line to McKenzie. The throw is way off but McKenzie makes a great catch and runs for five yards (penalty Foster OPI) 4:57 - The infamous pick for grabs. We all saw it. It might have been Allen's worst throw on the year. 0/1 2:00 - Josh stands in the pocket and delivers a great throw to McKenzie for 19 yards. 1/2 1:35 - Lots of time, eventually Allen gets chased out and throws it away. 1/3 1:27 - Again lots of time. Allen throws over the middle and air mails a wide open McKenzie. Dropped INT by the defender. 1/4 1:21 - Allen takes a huge shot as he throws a great ball to Foster for 15 on a curl. 2/5 1:12 - Josh badly misses a short throw over the middle to Thompson who was wide open. Thompson dove for the ball and almost made an incredible play. 2/6 0:47 - Josh throws a little behind Zay on a crossing route to the left, Zay drops it. He should have caught that one. 2/7 0:36 - quick out to Zay for 4 yards. 3/8 Summary: 3/8 completed passes. 2 kinda bad throws (to McKenzie and Clay); 2 legit bad throws (McKenzie and Thompson); 1 WOAT-type throw (INT) 3rd quarter: 14:07 - Quick throw to the left behind the line to Foster for 2 yards. 1/1 13:34 - Allen leaves the pocket early before there's any pressure, runs toward the pressure, then makes the exact same throw that resulted in the INT in the first half. It lands no where near a Bills receiver though I think it was meant for Zay. 1/2 5:35 - Play action dump off to Ivory. The throw is no where near accurate, forcing Ivory to have to stop his route and come back 180 degrees to make a play. on it, and he almost makes it. 1/3 5:29 - Allen stands in the pocket and delivers a nice ball to Foster along the sideline for a first down. 2/4 4:11 - Allen quick hits McKenzie over the middle. McKenzie makes a nice move for big PAC. 3/5 3:27 - Pass rush quickly forces Josh into scramble mode, and he throws it away. 3/6 Summary: 3/6 passes completed; one bad throw (Ivory), one really, really bad throw (Zay). 4th quarter: 10:07 - Josh doesn't like what he sees, and so he scampers right to buy time and completes a nice out to Foster for 6 yards. 1/1 (penalty on Jets) 9:42 - Play action roll out. Nice throw on the move to Thompson for a first down. 2/2 9:17 - trick screen play completed to Murphy for 2 yards. (penalty OPI on Foster) 8:51 - Allen is forced to get rid of it early due to pressure and the ball sails on him just OB. 2/3 8:45 - Allen throws a rocket right into Zay chest. We know how that turned out. 2/4 8:40 - Allen is pressured right and completes to Zay for 14 yards. Needed 20. Missed FG. 3/5 6:16 - We decide to take a shot down the left sideline. Josh is no where near accurate with Foster in single coverage. Throw is behind and OB left. 3/6 6:11 - Quick out to Mckenzie for 8 yards. 4/7 5:32 - Quick out to Mckenzie for a first down. 5/8 4:15 - Beautiful back shoulder throw to Foster for a big gain. 6/9 2:41 - Josh misses Zay back corner of the end zone. The throw is late and OB. 6/10 1:11 - Josh misses Mckenzie with the under throw. 6/11 1:07 - INT to seal the game. Bad pass. 6/12 Summary: 6/12 completed passes; two kinda bad throws (Zay and Mackenzie); one legit bad pass (Foster), one really bad pass (INT). Game Summary: 18/36 completed passes; 5 kinda bad throws, 4 legit bad throws, 2 really bad throws, and one WOAT throw. Let's give Josh the five questionable ones. Some of those he was under duress. Basically we're talking about 7 bad to terrible throws out of 36 attempts (almost 20%) which is really high for a QB. It's being masked because he also makes so many positive plays, both running and throwing. It's not about whether he can be accurate or not - clearly he can be pin point accurate - it's about the high variance between good and bad. I think this analysis helps illustrate that. Can we win consistently with a QB who makes so many bad throws? I don't know, but let's at least all agree there is a problem with his accuracy.

I don't think anyone knows yet but the fact he fired his own hand picked OC after one year, and now we're looking at probably having to do the same with ST in year two suggests he might not be the right guy. He looks like a head coach, says the right things. It's clear he has a plan to build an actual team (as appose to just collecting talent). Lots to like, but between the coaching misfires, the QB stuff, and spending all that draft capital on two players,...jury is out.

Solid points, and you forgot one: our head coach is a former NFL DB and DB coach. I'm sure the situation opposite Tre isn't lost on McD, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us take a corner on day one or two of the draft.

Cam goes through this every year. If you run and expose yourself to taking hits players will try and hit you, and even though it results in some penalties it's worth it for the defense. Right now Allen's in survival mode just trying to prove he belongs, so he's doing/trying anything. I suspect he'll rein it in some with better protection and another guy or two who can get open. He takes way too many shots.

I see your point. He didn't get much help today. I'm critical because the things he isn't good at are things you need from your QB in order to be a good offense. He's bringing so much to table, but he's also taking things off. I keep hearing the accuracy will improve if we just put a team around him. I don't think it works like that. He's doing enough right now to be intriguing though. Very tantalizing player.

This. He still made plays with his legs to sustain drives, and he threw a few really nice balls in the second half, but he was inaccurate way too often. This was a lot like last week, only with more turnovers.

I think you can. We've seen him get good protection and have guys open. He's just missing guys. If anything, he seems to play his best when the pocket breaks down. Upgrading the offensive line and receivers will make a difference in the number of explosive plays. We might even be able to get Josh's completion percentage up to 60% with a good team around him, but new lineman and receivers don't help you become more accurate. Allen needs to overcome those struggles if we're ever going to be good.

At this point I'm fine with losing close ones for better draft position. It's frustrating watching Josh miss all these throws though, and the ones he doesn't miss we drop. Hope Milano is ok.

Hard for a defense to come back from that for one play. Hope the offense is ready to go win the game.