JGMcD2

Summary from those folks... They’re lucky... whether it’s the playoff appearances or something like drafting Josh... pure luck. They don’t draft well, do well in free agency or in trades. Cody Ford over Metcalf, Mahomes, Oliver a bust. Star too much money, too many Panthers, traded Teller, Jefferson is better than Diggs. I don’t think I missed anything?

Josh blew a 16 point lead ?

You’re so spot on... I heard Bud Selig say numerous times (it was a quote he said his father used to use a lot). “You’re only good or bad by comparison.” Metrics really don’t exist, and analysts really don’t do anything to subjectively compare the value the GMs bring to their organization. They’ll hoot and holler about superstars if it’s good for ratings, or they put up fantasy points. It causes folks to magnify a few transactions. The only metric right now is really wins, which really at the end of the day is all that matters, the Bills are in the top 10 in the NFL since 2017 when McBeane arrived. That’s compared to the rest of the NFL... that’s a pretty solid accomplishment for a team that was lucky to be 9-7 and then went 6-10 the following year in a re-tooling season. Throw in the fact, that subjectively this regime has done better in free agency and drafted better than pretty much every team in the league over that span. Check out this post here for more detail on that claim... it’s true, people don’t realize it, but when compared to the rest of the league (which IMO is all that matters) these guys are killing it. They’re not without flaws, they have things the need to address and clean up, but at the end of the day, when compared to their peers they are elite.

Methodology App. V, §2 lays out the process of calculating the value of CFAs. §2(a) begins the calculation as follows to all players in the league Start with the Average Per Year (APY) of the contract signed. Subtract from the APY any money that the compensatory formula does not count3. Rank these players by adjusted APY in descending order, and assign points to each player, equal to [number of leaguewide players]-[rank]. Add anywhere from 25 to 100 points for players who played a percentage of snaps on offense or defense in the range of 25% to 100%. (Kickers and punters are given a different point addition unrelated to snap counts.) Add 20 or 5 points for postseason honors as determined by the AP’s All Pro list, and the PFWA’s All NFL/All Conference list. Once the Final Numerical Value (FNV) as described above has been tallied, each UFA is given a value that either assigns him as a CFA to a particular round, ranging from the 3rd to the 7th, or does not qualify him as a CFA at all. App. V, §3(b) sets these round cutoffs in a percentile manner, as follows: Once each team’s list of CFAs lost and gained are determined and valued, one-to-one cancellations are applied. Cancellations work as follows, as stated in App. V, §3(a): A CFA gained by a team cancels out the highest-valued available CFA lost that has the same round valuation of the CFA gained. If there is no available CFA lost in the same round as the CFA gained, the CFA gained will instead cancel out the highest-available CFA lost with a lower round value. A CFA gained will only cancel out a CFA lost with a higher draft order if there are no other CFAs lost available to cancel out. Any team that has more CFAs lost than CFAs gained will then be eligible for compensatory picks for the CFAs lost that were not cancelled out by CFAs gained.

I also love how they’re “lucky to get to the playoffs with the worst point differential in 30 years” but it’s also held against them that they didn’t continue to get lucky and lost 10 - 3 against the Jaguars.

That’s not how it works. It’s based on the contract they sign in FA and the number of FA you sign and the net value.

I think he ends up jumping Fields, and a few folks tied in have started murmuring about it. We shall see.

All of my Patriots fan friends are discussing which QB they want to draft. The consensus is that they want Zach Wilson or Mac Jones, but believe they’re going to acquire Darnold from the Jets. I think Wilson ends up being the second QB off the board... fine with me if they get Jones or Darnold.

HUGE Rams fan tonight.

The Bills chose to keep Smith in as a blocker on several pass plays, and he held his own in man-to-man opportunities to give Allen enough time to find his targets. The decision to activate Smith ahead of Tyler Kroft in the last two weeks has been a slight surprise, but as long as he provides this type of value in about 15-to-25 snaps, the Bills should keep in him there. Oh... weird...

Going to throw this here as a celebration of the continuity! Happy to see McBeane locked up for the foreseeable future.

Lil Dirty Isaiah McKenzie! Mario Addison says he’s the weirdest dude on the team lol

Yes, that is sad typo. I think it increased Beane’s urgency... I think he was intent on getting a WR1 for Josh. Tried to get Antonio Brown, wanted Diggs at the deadline and Vikings said no. I don’t think he was complacent I just don’t think he had a trade partner until this spring. But yeah I agree the game increased his urgency to go and get that guy. Yes, I did see that. I didn’t think it was THAT bad. It was him trying to make a play... I’ve seen it happen before... but because it was improvised and didn’t worked... he was “cracking under pressure.” Had it worked Knox would still be running and the play would be all over highlight reels.

Well you said control the entire time... not team control, again something different. Syntax matters. There are plenty of things that get in the way of Jefferson remaining with the Vikings... Jefferson not continuing to produce at the level he’s producing at? Or Jefferson signing with another team in FA? Or Jefferson being traded away? That’s speculation, so like you, I won’t get into it. But injury is not the only thing that gets in the way of that. Diggs is literally an example of what you’re describing happening with Jefferson and he didn’t see the end of this contract with Minnesota.

I’ve acknowledged the age point numerous times, it doesn’t guarantee the Vikings will control him longer... it just means it’s more likely he will play longer than Diggs. I’m not acting like he’s going to walk away or they won’t extend him... literally nobody knows what is going to happen with Jefferson beyond 2023... it’s speculation. The facts are that they’re both controlled through 2023... it’s indisputable. Well then they don’t have control... they just are more likely to sign him to extension. That’s not remotely the same thing. I understand they have a 5th year option... that’s not guaranteed... it’s exactly what it sounds like... an option. It’s not a guarantee... it’s an option. Once again, I’m wrong? The only one who’s been wrong is you... you have and continue to misdefine the word control in the context of sports.

Yup. The media ran with the lateral and the fumble and said he cracked under pressure. He did more than enough to put the Bills in a spot to win that game. I don’t necessarily think he played poorly and while he didn’t make same wild errors, he made some great plays. If the defense doesn’t crack, they win and everyone is gushing over the stat line.

Diggs has done more to help Josh other than Josh looking for him on third downs... come on... is that really all you believe he’s provided Josh? I don’t think you understand what control is. Control is how long a player is under contract. Jefferson isn’t controlled longer than Diggs... he’s just younger than Diggs. Both of their contracts run out in 2023. Therefore neither are controlled past that year. You have fundamentally botched the very definition of what control is and anything else you’re providing about a franchise tag or extension is purely speculation and not actual control over either player.

Yeah and then today he released his “NFL Tiers” where he ranks teams based on their competitiveness when it comes to winning a Super Bowl. Here is how he ranked them... Champs: Chiefs #1 Contender: Saints Conference Champion Threat: Packers, Steelers Don’t Let Them Get Hot: Browns, Bills, Rams, Seahawks So he said the Browns were clearly the better team, but then put them in the same category as the Bills... while he was going through this he made the comment “The Bills can get hot if Josh Allen plays the first good playoff game of his life.” Which is kind of an idiotic statement, because he’s played one game and while he broke down a little bit... it wasn’t necessarily a bad game from him... it was the lateral and the bad sack that has everyone saying “it was a disaster.” 24/46 for 265, 9/92 rushing and 1/16 with a TD receiving. He didn’t blow a 16-0 lead with 19 minutes left in the game.

But you also contradict yourself and say that Diggs has provided things that have helped Josh grow this season that need to be taken into account...you’re hopping between arguments there... unless you think that Jefferson would provide a veteran presence that’s helped Josh grow? You contradict yourself twice in the same post responding to me and then in subsequent responses to other posters. If your argument is that Jefferson is going to be around longer because he’s younger, that’s fine. I mean that’s not being argued... he’s younger than Diggs so I’d expect him to play a little longer... The sustained success comment you made doesn’t make a ton of sense, really, Diggs is controlled for the same amount of time as Jefferson. We’d then have to provide an extension to retain either player’s services beyond that point... what if he signs a contract with another team? Does that contribute to sustained success?

Wait a minute... I said the same thing as @SageAgainstTheMachine and his point was fair and mine wasn’t? Way to conveniently contradict yourself in the same post... You also didn’t answer my question... do you think Justin Jefferson would provide for our offense what Stefon Diggs has? You know, like the things that can’t be quantified? I didn’t ask if you thought he was better, that’s been established. EDIT: Which now I see that you answer my question in response to someone else and admit that Diggs has provided things that Jefferson wouldn’t have been able to this season.

Nick Wright said... paraphrasing... They were asked about if the Bills are under rated or over rated. Wright said they’re fine, but he doesn’t think they win a playoff game because he doesn’t trust Josh Allen. Brandon Marshall pushed back and said if Nick Wright is going to anoint the Browns as serious contenders, how can he not do the same with the Bills. To which Wright responded that it’s because Baker is a better QB than Josh Allen. He said if you watched Josh Allen over the first month and then the 49ers game, you’d think he was good. But Nick Wright watched football in October and November and Josh Allen was bad. The Bills only went 4-3 in that timeframe and Josh had 10 TDs to 9 TO (He conveniently only used passing TD. Left out 3 rushing and 1 receiving TD and the fact he averaged over 240 yards passing). (For comparison, Baker during this same timeframe had 10 TDs and 7 TO and averaged 196 yards passing per game) The he proceeded to say that the Browns have a better run game, better defense and better QB therefore they are the superior team to Buffalo.

We didn’t trade Justin Jefferson, we traded the pick that became Jefferson. Who is to say we don’t trade up and CeeDee Lamb? What if they take Dugger in RD1 had they not traded for Jefferson? Jefferson is great, Jefferson wasn’t going to provide our offense what we needed. He wasn’t. It’s a win/win for both sides. Minnesota is paying a lot of money for an average QB and minimal money for a very good WR. We’re paying a lot of money for a very good WR and minimal money for a very good QB. Different teams, different situations, different needs and different trajectories. Answer this question, even if you believe Jefferson is a better receiver than Diggs... would he have been a better receiver for US than Diggs?

You’ve gotta love Wright “he only had 10 TDs and 9 turnovers” Which is correct... between the Titans game and the Chargers game he threw 10 TD passes, 7 interceptions and fumbled twice. He just conveniently left out the 4 rushing TD and 1 receiving TD. Sooo 15 total TD to 9 TO while average 240 yards passing and 260 total yards per game During the same timeframe Baker has 10 TD to 7 TO and averaged 196 yards passing per game... but that’s who he trusts...

Wallace and Johnson were pretty brutal to start the season. As the defense has rounded into shape, they’ve improved as well. I actually think Johnson has done a pretty good job the last few weeks, starting with the second Jets game. Wallace is polarizing for me. He’s always in the right position and there to make a play, but he’s just a tad late. I don’t necessarily know what it is... in recent weeks we’ve faced a lot of talent WR groups. I don’t think he’s bad enough to be benched, but he does leave a lot to be desired. I like Dane, he’s tough, but the sample size is limited. Wallace was the fan darling early on when he had some unexpected success.