JGMcD2

That stats update is actually wrong... Josh has 33 total TD... they’re not accounting for his TD reception against AZ. He has 26 passing, 6 rushing and 1 receiving

Doesn’t matter... if someone does something bad one time they’re automatically just bad. It’s a law, like water or dinosaurs.

I love jacked up McDermott is, but the message was “we left a little meat on the bone.” I love it. Threw in a growth mindset too... they just want to keep improving.

Yes, I meant offensive line! I honestly haven’t watched any film this week, normally try to but I’ve been swamped with work. I don’t know exactly what they were doing, it just felt like someone was always in Josh’s lap. I noticed the same thing in the 2nd half of the AZ game. It’s been pressure on the edge primarily, with the occasional Winters blow up.

If the Steelers beat the Bills the end up being tied for a WC slot. Pittsburgh was sitting at 8-6... it was a pretty big game. Dallas also finished a game back of the division, they win that game and they’re tied. The context of when they played during the season matters a little bit... they also mean a little bit because it shows that they don’t collapse in prime time like you suggested. It’s not a problem having a dissenting opinion on the performance of the team. You should probably enjoy things a little bit though, if you’re going to be upset about 8-3 and controlling our own destiny in the division, which is an improvement over last year already, you’re never going to enjoy it at all. Division is close, but we beat both the teams trailing us, other than beating them... we can’t control what other teams do against them. 6/8 wins have come against teams that are .500 or better and our 3 losses have come against teams .500 or better. Find me another team who has played that level of competition this year and has continued to win, idc about the margin of victory. They’ve found a way to win against good teams, what’s so disappointing about that?

The way the Chargers attacked last week gave our defense line fits. It actually really all started in the 2nd half of the AZ game. Saleh is one of the best defensive minds in the game and will most likely find a way to do that again, if we continue to let that happen it’s going to put Josh in a position where he feels the need to make plays. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but if it’s too forced, that’s when the risky throws into crowds of people and sack-fumbles pop up. Defensively I am not too worried. I think we can confuse Mullens enough and as long as we rally to the ball and tackle we should be fine. Deebo and company seem to make their biggest plays after breaking tackles... so if we get sloppy there it’ll be an issue. It’s going to come down to fundamentals... our defense for 3 years was very good because they were always where they needed to be and made you beat them over and over again to score. It seems like that is back, but if the 49ers get rolling it’ll be because they’re back to being sloppy technique wise.

I don’t completely disagree with the view, but those weren’t actual prime time games. Those were necessary because of COVID, they weren’t planned and almost every team in that situation has looked sluggish. Maybe historically they tank in prime time, but what do Dick Jauron’s collapses have to do with this team? They beat Dallas in Dallas on Thanksgiving and Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh on SNF last year. Not quite tanking in prime time. I’m concerned for tonight’s game for various reasons, but none of them are media driven storyline reasons like “Bad in prime time” or “Don’t have any blow out wins”

I normally never watch their Sunday Football Countdown, but I did yesterday out of boredom. Rex Ryan made the comparison between Taysom and Josh at one point when they were ragging on Taysom, he said something along the lines of “Taysom reminds me of a young Josh Allen, can hurt you with his legs, can make some wow plays... you just need to stick with him.” It was sort of a compliment, saying that Josh has graduated past that... it was an odd comp though.

[Do you feel bad for Gregg Williams?] It would feel bad if he had learned from his mistakes in the past. Unfortunately, he seems to have doubled down on all of them. Bountygate looms large and yet the Jets have an absurd amount of PF penalties on defense. You’d think he’d clean that up? He’s been seen as an egomaniac and does stuff that just makes it worse, he never tries to fix it.

Alright... I am going to need your help with the arithmetic here! Once you do, I’ll accurately be able to predict the Bills game tomorrow night! Dolphins beat the 49ers 43-17. Patriots beat the Dolphins 21-11. 49ers beat the Patriots 33-6. Bills beat the Dolphins 31-28. Bills beat the Patriots 24-21. Seahawks beat the 49ers 37-27. Bills beat the Seahawks 44-34. Who wins between the Bills and 49ers tomorrow?

I think they have a legitimate shot at 10 wins. LAR should beat them, but they've been turnover prone, if that turnover prone LAR team shows up... Tua was struggling to move the ball against CIN. He won't be able to do it against NE. Going to Foxboro is going to be tough for us, we should beat them, but the Pats are going to be hunting. NYJ should be an easy win, they took them to the wire the last time but I don't think that happens again.

Basically you’re telling us that because they’re losing revenue this year due to circumstances out of their control (and circumstances that are once in a lifetime), the NFL is going to decide to manipulate the outcome of games, which if discovered would jeopardize decades of future revenue?

Yeah, you’re right. I should clarify I meant a handful of guys I actually know sit down and watch like that on here. Also a great point, even watching the film you don’t necessarily know. It’s hard to tell unless you know the call and the assignments (I.e. you’re on the coaching staff and have 20+ years coaching defense and were the mastermind behind the 15-1 Panthers defense) I was just about to bring Chappy up... he was so matter of fact with that statement and still hasn’t replied... everyone gets notifications when they’re quoted... weird. Haha I agree with you... I try not to take it too extreme with that. I think there are a few knowledgeable fans that could work in front offices and be more successful than the folks there. At least in baseball, I know that for a fact, believe me I’ve come across some less than inspiring folks in my time! But more often than not, you’re right, fans don’t know all of the circumstances unfortunately and can’t be relied on for great decisions individually... but FanGraphs the baseball website “crowdsources” fans every year to find out what contracts they think FA will get... the large sample of fans are usually pretty close to the true value/value given out. Interesting enough the new Mets owner has been asking fans on Twitter who they want the team to sign. I think it’s an interesting tactic...

There are many issues when it comes to player evaluation on a message board. The first being nobody knows the assignments unless they break down the film. I can count on one hand how many people are sitting down and watching film in it’s entirety from all 16 games. They next is nobody really puts anything in context with the rest of the league. Most people go “I watch every Bills game, every week, all the way through! I know whether a player is good or not.” Which is great, I actually believe that’s important and you just pick up on a lot from seeing the team so much... but are those same people able to watch every other game, every week all the way through in order to pick up on the deficiencies of other teams and recognize their trends? I don’t think so... most folks see 3-4 games of a team and think they know a player and want them over who we have without knowing if they can actually do what we need them to do. It’s dangerous territory.

This is a continuation of my research into the topic. My posts are the beginning and end of Page 1 and beginning of Page 2. Curious to hear some thoughts and what this tells folks based on their feelings on the draft, free agency, the Bills and more!

Eye ball test is useful in some cases, I 100% agree. It is hard to do a full on comparison against the other 31 teams though... at least without it all written down, haha. Thanks for the kind words!

The file size was too big for one post, so here is the information for the NETDrAV in each round for 2017 and 2018 for each team. I will excluded 2019 for now because it's the least stable, but these give you an idea of how Buffalo did in the specific round compared to their peers. Buffalo is highlighted in yellow in each image. Please check out the posts on page 1 for greater detail... thank you!

I did some further digging and made some adjustments based on some feedback. I wanted to find a way to compare things based on round, but I think using historical pick values is tricky because each draft is so much different in terms of positional value and player talent. I decided it was best to compare each draft to itself, because each GM was selecting from the same pool of talent. What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. The results are attached here below. I feel most comfortable with the 2017 draft class because we've had 3 years to see every player perform. The Bills are highlighted in yellow in each graph. As you can see in 2017 the Saints absolutely crushed it. This is the Lattimore, Ramczyk, Williams, Kamara, Anazalone, Hendrickson draft that many pundits have been touting as one of the best draft classes of the modern era. Obviously that shows up in the results here, as they nearly double the next best draft in terms of AV. Highlighted in yellow there are the Buffalo Bills. They're currently #3 by a slim margin, but can be expected to continue to remain towards the top of the draft class. Overall, it tells us exactly what we knew already, it's a strong draft class. Now we know exactly how it compares to the rest of the league in terms of the value they extracted from the draft. I will go into further detail later in this post as I've broken down the value by each round for each team as well. Moving over to 2018, which is lead by the Indianapolis Colts who brought in guys like Quentin Nelson, Darius Leonard, Braden Smith and Nyheim Hines. The Ravens also did very well for themselves in this draft with Lamar, Orlando Brown and Mark Andrews amongst others. You can see the Bills highlighted in yellow again. They rank just outside the top 5 at 6 this time. This draft for Buffalo is boosted by getting both Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds in RD1, but they also get some value from Taron Johnson in the 5th round as well. Again, compared to their peers the Bills extracted some of the best value out of this draft. In 2019 the Bills move back into the top 5. This is the hardest year to judge and will fluctuate the most in the coming years, but after 1 season the Bills seems to have done a solid job here when compared to the rest of the league. Oliver was positive in NETDrAV as was Ford, Singletary, Knox and Daryl Johnson. Again, this is all just in comparison to the average player in the round that year. The Bills are extracting more value in each round than 27 other teams in the league, which is pretty impressive. This image below shows the NETDrAV ranking for each team in each draft. Buffalo is highlighted in yellow there for you to see. They are the ONLY team to finish in the top 10 in NETDrAV between 2017-2019, and very nearly finish in the top 5 in all three drafts, just missing in 2018 at #6. This obviously WILL change over time as seasons progress. 2017 will be the most stable, the Bills may jump or fall a place or two but will likely remain in the top 5. 2018 has the potential for major growth because of Josh, they could leap into the top 3 there if he continue the path he is on. 2019 is going to fluctuate the most because some players may pop more than other moving forward, rookie seasons come with a learning curve, but early returns look good in comparison to the rest of the league.

That’s actually one of the first things Klein talked about in his press conference. I believe they asked him how he felt about being the “attack man” on defense running around and blitzing and everything. He gave kudos to the staff for putting him in the right position and then talked about how he made some plays but there are some he wants back and needs to continue to work out... specifically mentioned this play as one he was blitzing on, but has a responsibility to grab the back and he got caught attacking too much. He seems extremely intelligent... teammates have been expressing the same thoughts. He’s playing an entirely different position that he’s never played before, he said he’s played MIKE and SAM during his career but never the WILL position they’re having him play. No camp or anything is going to have an impact on this, not an excuse, just one of the reasons why things have taken so long to get right. For Klein, he said several things played into his subpar play at the beginning of the season. He added he isn’t one to make excuses but a move from ‘mike’ to ‘will’ linebacker, a position he’s never played before, was a big part of it. There was a learning curve and now he said he seems to be playing looser. “I feel like I’m playing more free, faster, not thinking as much,” Klein said. “I’m playing will linebacker now, and the rest of my career I’ve always played mike. So that adjustment, and I’m not making any excuses for early in the season and my play, but I just feel like I’m playing fast and I’m trying to run around and make plays, and the less I think the more I’m reacting.”

Great post, and really insightful. Love the visuals. It’s all super relevant and real. You covered everything very well and I agree with almost all of it. The hardest thing on our end is knowing how the play is designed and what Josh’s queues are on each play. I think the first play was a designed run all the way and when Josh saw it wasn’t going to work, he tried to make something happen. The issue is he’s looking RUN before the snap and then as he’s going down he sees Gabe and tries to make a play. He was never thinking PASS from the jump. Even if it was designed to have a pass option, Josh’s first read so to speak was run. It got blown up pretty quick and he tried to make something happen when he should have just “ate it.” As for the entire post, I’ll try and address my thoughts from a development perspective. Overall what I’ve learned in my time in player development is that there are macro and micro developments. I’m applying this to a different sport than I work in, but I’ll give it a shot. Macro would be getting acclimated to the speed of the game, your assignments, playing a new position. These are overarching concepts, that may change week to week and can easily be coached up at the same time as trying to win during a season. It doesn’t necessarily require adjusting movement patterns, at least immensely. Micro would be something like throwing mechanics, route running, or footwork. This stuff is really hard to correct during the season. You can definitely do it and have small improvements, but these things are often habits for players and need to be broken. Unfortunately when you have a game once ever 7 days, it doesn’t matter what you do in practice because in a game you’re often going to revert to what is most comfortable AKA muscle memory (it’s harder over a 162 game schedule in baseball, but the same principle applies). Players almost never mess with these things in season because the movement patterns won’t stick. This type of development is going to take place in the off-season... I think they know it needs to be reinforced, I know it’s been a point of emphasis in the past and Josh HAS improved, but that needs to continue.

Please direct him to that thread, the responses have been far too positive. I need the glass half empty posters to come join me over there!

Download the Yahoo Sports App on your phone or tablet... you should be able to watch it there.

Yeah I thought it was pretty encouraging to see that the drafts over that 3 year time period looks solid without Josh really being valued as the star he has started to become.

I appreciate the kind words!

Can someone clue me in on the offense that Wentz was running early on in Philadelphia? It seems to me that Daboll has forced Josh to go down a more traditional path and learn all of the really hard stuff from the get go. I think that bodes well for long term development because anyone who potentially comes in after Daboll, likely won’t be running as complex of an offense. Just a thought